Business Letters

Local solution: the ever- growing “peak oil” crowd (American Account, September 17) is convinced that regular oil production passed its peak last year and that a peak in “all oils” production will occur around 2010. Natural gas will provide a substitute source of liquid fuels, but not at a sufficient replacement level as the conflicting demands of it for gas-to-liquids conversion, tar-sands extraction, LNG liquefaction, industrial and domestic consumption cannot be reconciled.

China could get Iraq's first foreign oil deal

Iraq could hand China the first foreign contract to develop its vast oil resources, if Beijing agrees to put into effect a deal originally signed with Saddam Hussein, Iraq's Oil Ministry said yesterday.

While U.S. oil majors, excluded from Iraq before the U.S. invasion in 2003, wait for Iraq to pass new laws on the sector before investing, Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani will visit China, Japan and Australia shortly to discuss projects and developing exports, ministry spokesman Asim Jihad said.

Iran "not to back down" on nuclear rights

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad told a seminar here on Wednesday that Iran would "not back down" on its nuclear rights and suspend nuclear enrichment, Iran's official IRNA news agency reported.

"They want to use suspension (as a measure) for propaganda, then tell the whole world that Iran was forced by them to accept suspension," the president was quoted as saying.

No easy choices: Why U.S. can't live with a nuclear Iran

Iran's nuclear program has displaced Iraq as America's most serious foreign-policy problem. The question is whether we can live with nuclear weapons controlled by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the mullahs.

Ahmadinejad said that Iran would not be deprived of its "inalienable right" to develop nuclear power, and does not seek nuclear weapons. Despite these assurances, the ominous conclusion is that Tehran is producing fissile material for nuclear weapons and defying the U.N. Security Council, as recent events suggest:

Commodities: Natural gas slides in U.S. on mild weather outlook

Natural gas traded in New York fell Thursday as the outlook for mild weather across most of the United States reduced the need for the fuel to heat or cool homes.

U.S. heating demand will run 22 percent below normal for the next week, and cooling demand will be about average, according to Weather Derivatives in Missouri. Traders looking for long- range outlooks have received mixed signals, with some forecasters seeing a cold start to the winter, others a mild one.

Is the world about to run out of oil?

Oil importing countries faced an unassailable challenge with the "historic high" price of oil. In 1864, a barrel of Pennsylvanian oil traded for 8.06 in dollars of the day ($97.79 of 2004) and in 1980, a barrel of Arabian light (posted at Ras Tanura) sold for 35.69 in dollars of the day ($82.15 of 2004). The world has not yet faced a "fourth oil shock" mainly because the price went up gradually to over $70 a barrel over a full three-year period, unlike in 1979-80.

Is the 2006 Commodity Bull Run over?

Big rallies in many commodities earlier this year, from corn to gold to crude, were deflated by summertime. Now as we head toward year end, you might be wondering: is the commodity bull run of 2006 over? This is the "golden" question. To understand how commodities trade, let's take a look at the last five years in gold. In 2001, gold futures were trading at about $270 per ounce. A lot of analysts believe this was the beginning of a large commodity bull run or "mega cycle." Within those five years, gold futures have rallied to $732, peaking in May 2006. That represents a gain of more than 100 percent, certainly a more shrewd investment than the stock market over this time frame. Even with the correction off its peak, the gold market has provided impressive returns. Similarly, remember in 2001, crude oil was trading under $25 per barrel, and peaked above $78 in July 2006. Crude has likewise backed off a bit, trading around the $60 range today. We can see similar trends in other commodities as well.

Doubts on Ethanol

In its October issue, Consumer Reports takes a detailed look at E85 ethanol and finds the glass half-empty, despite government and industry enthusiasm for biofuels.

The magazine’s study, which included road tests of a 2007 Chevrolet Tahoe that runs on either gasoline or E85 ethanol (a gasoline blend that is 85 percent ethanol), concluded that although E85 “emits less smog-producing pollutants than gasoline,” it “provides fewer miles per gallon, costs more and is hard to find outside the Midwest.”

Global warming as a hot investment opportunity

A very important trend involving global warming is sweeping the planet.
Until now, experts the world over have angrily divided over whether or not the globe is really becoming warmer in any long term or permanent way. And, if it is, how quickly and by how much?
Beginning about two or three years ago, and picking up speed and force as time went on, a new body of belief began to take hold. The evidence indicting global warming -- and the cause of it--became so irrefutable that even the skeptics dropped their agnosticism. They had just read too many documented reports, and saw too many pictures, of climbing shorelines, retreating icebergs and beleaguered polar bears, among countless other stark images.

India's GDP up 8.9%

Indian economy grew by a robust 8.9 per cent in the first quarter this fiscal compared to 8.5 per cent, in the corresponding period last fiscal, beating most forecasts.

The gain was driven by strong performances in manufacturing, which expanded 11.3 per cent, and construction, which grew 9.5 per cent, India's Central Statistical Organisation said.

Latest Interview with Matt Simmons (mp3)

Matthew Simmons is an Investment Banker and CEO of Simmons and Company International and author of "Twilight in the Desert: Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy"

Peak Oil And The Problem Of Infrastructure

Most schemes for a post-oil technology are based on the misconception that there will be an infrastructure, similar to that of the present day, which could support such future gadgetry. Modern equipment, however, is dependent on specific methods of manufacture, transportation, maintenance, and repair. In less abstract terms, this means machinery, motorized vehicles, and service depots or shops, all of which are generally run by fossil fuels. In addition, one unconsciously assumes the presence of electricity, which energizes the various communications devices, such as telephones and computers; electricity on such a large scale is only possible with fossil fuels.

Peak Oil Passnotes: Oil at a Turning Point

There are three choices for the market in crude oil after its recent steep falls. It can stay roughly around where it is now, $62. It can fall back down through the technical and software barriers that support it to new year lows or it can go higher once more. Perhaps very high. It all depends who, or what, you believe.

If you believe the Dow Jones then there can only be one answer. That the market is robust, economic growth is on the move and the demand for goods and services is going to continue to suck up more and more crude oil. Equities are hot; the media is telling us corporations are strong.

The end of oil's stunning ride

Prices may steady at $55 to $65 but that doesn't mean an end to wild swings in the energy sector.

The energy crisis is over. You just might not be that happy with the ending.

The last four years has seen a nearly unprecedented surge in oil, gasoline and natural gas prices.

A global economic boom - fueled by Brazil, China, India, Mexico and the United States, among other countries, has sparked a ravenous new appetite for fuel that left producers scrambling to meet demand.

Amaranth’s Effect on the Markets

The natural gas market has provided a roller coaster ride of profits and losses for those investing or speculating in it. It began 2005 below $6.00 an mcf (million cubic feet). By December, the combination of an increasingly tight inventory, a rising oil market, and the devastation produced by hurricane Katrina made it soar and set a $15.75 all-time price record.

Greed is the motive for the war!

To understand the special “national security” status enjoyed by the oil companies, we must first consider oil’s economic importance and then its central role in war. Oil provides nearly all the energy for transportation (cars, trucks, buses airplanes, and many railroad engines). Oil also has an important share of other energy inputs – it heats many buildings and fuels industrial and farm equipment, for example. Overall, oil has a 40% share in the US national energy budget. Beyond energy, oil provides lubrication and it is an essential feedstock for plastics, paint, fertilizers and pharmaceuticals. Sometime in the future, the world may switch to renewable energy and other non-oil inputs, but oil now reigns as the indispensable ingredient of the modern economy. For this reason, governments are nervous about their national oil supply.6

Negotiations over Iran's Nuclear Program

In the United States, the two most serious newspapers for diplomatic coverage are the New York Times and the Washington Post. By accidents of history, there are two right wing newspapers of ill repute with similar names, the New York Post and the Washington Times. The New York Post is owned by Rupert Murdock, the billionaire conservative activist. The Washington Times is owned, last I checked, by Reverend Moon of Korea's Unification Church, a conservative cult organization. Both are more mouthpieces for the Republican party and conservative causes in general than reliable news sources.

Venezuela to join Nigeria in oil cuts-OPEC

OPEC producer Venezuela will make a token cut in supply along with fellow member Nigeria to stem falling prices and counter slowing demand, an OPEC spokesman said on Friday.

Oil's rapid plunge to $62 from a mid-July peak of $78.40 has rung alarm bells among OPEC members, but only the group's fourth biggest producer Venezuela and sixth biggest Nigeria have vowed publicly to make voluntary output cuts.

Global warming: Not a big joke

St. Francis of Assisi, the patron saint of animals and ecology, respected the links among all of God’s creation. Following a rebirth experience, Francis, whose feast day is Oct. 4, made a drastic change in his lifestyle, striving for less so that Christ could become more in his life.

No doubt, he would take the warnings about global warming seriously and find additional ways to simplify his life.

Coal Will Be Top Enemy in Fighting Global Warming

Cheap coal will be the main enemy in a fight against global warming in the 21st century because high oil prices are likely to encourage a shift to coal before wind or solar power, a top economist said on Thursday.

Coal emits far more greenhouse gases, blamed by most scientists for a rise in world temperatures, per unit of energy when burnt in power plants or factories than oil or natural gas.

"The most important environmental problem in the 21st century is coal, or you could say coal is the most important enemy," Ottmar Edenhofer, chief economist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, told Reuters.

Weathering the storm of climate change

When scientists first began describing evidence of global climate change in the late 1980s, it was easy for corporations and the investment establishment to dismiss it as a fringe idea.

But as extreme weather events have multiplied - from the destructive force of Hurricane Katrina to the wild temperature swings in Europe and the United States - many have begun to consider not only that climate change might be real, but that it might have significant economic consequences.

Oman to offer 3 oil blocks

Oman has been trying to beat an output decline that began in 2001. Its oil output fell by 3 per cent to around 750,800 barrels per day in the first half of the year from the same period in 2005.
Oman has said it plans to spend $10 billion in the next five years to boost oil output to 900,000 bpd and natural gas production to 70-80 million cubic metres per day.

Axis of oil

Earlier this year, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad arrived in China -- and quickly made himself at home. The occasion was a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a regional group linking China, Russia, and Central Asia. Ahmadinejad seemed to be everywhere. He posed, arms linked, with Russian and Chinese officials, who said nothing as he called for "impartial experts" to investigate whether the Holocaust happened. He delivered a major address on Chinese state television. And he proposed making "the SCO into a strong and influential economic, political and trade institution [to] thwart the threat of domineering powers."

One guess which "domineering power" he had in mind.

The World according to Gave

Charles Gave a partner in GaveKal Research, and co-author of the book "Our Brave New World" has been on a lecturing tour of the UK sharing with others, amongst other things, his unique view on World energy and oil. This has been the subject of some debate around the TOD office in recent days and it was therefore fortuitous when an article detailing his insight fell into our mail box affording us the opportunity to examine some of this influential character's analysis of world energy trends. Given my location in the UK, I had at least six hours head start on my US based colleagues and the opportunity to pass the TOD ruler over Charles Gave fell to me.

COOKING ON THE ROAD TO COLLAPSE: THE TERMINAL TRIANGLE RULES,

This past week, amid the Middle East crisis which dominates mainstream media, From The Wilderness has posted an abundance of news stories on the unremitting, grinding heat that has killed stunning numbers of human beings around the world during the month of July, as well as stories related to resource depletion and dollar devaluation. Meanwhile, as FTW reported on July 27, it is now becoming clearer that both oil and water are enormous factors in the Middle East crisis as they are in the lethal repercussions of climate change worldwide.

Concurrently, I’m still receiving personal emails from die-hard opponents of Peak Oil who accuse me of being a handmaiden of the petroleum industry. FTW has long ago ceased arguing with those entrenched in obdurate denial of the Terminal Triangle--climate change, worldwide resource depletion, particularly Peak Oil, and global economic meltdown. We have chosen instead to provide our readers with the most current and well-researched evidence on the daunting realities that are reversing the achievements of the past five hundred years of human history.

A reflection on cities of the future

Back in the early 20th Century, when the cheap oil fiesta was just getting underway, and some major new technological innovation made its debut every month – cars, radio, movies, airplanes – there was no practical limit to what men of vision could imagine about the future city, though often their imaginings were ridiculous. The representative case is Le Corbusier (Charles-Edouard Jeanneret; 1887 – 1965), the leading architectural hoodoo-meister of Early High Modernism, whose 1925 Plan Voisin for Paris proposed to knock down the entire Marais district on the Right Bank and replace it with rows of identical towers set between freeways.

Chesapeake to Reduce Gas Production

Chesapeake Energy Corp. is reducing its daily natural gas production by 6 percent because prices for the fuel have tumbled to their lowest level in nearly four years.

"We do not take a static approach to this business," Tom Price Jr., Chesapeake's senior vice president of corporate development, said Wednesday.

Ahmadinejad says Iran will not give up atomic Work

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Wednesday that Tehran would not suspend nuclear enrichment despite pressure from the West, a semi-official Iranian news agency said.

Western nations have said Iran must suspend enrichment, a process that can be used to make fuel for power stations or material for atomic bombs, to start negotiations over Iran's nuclear programme.

America, the Reluctant Empire

When the annals of the United States are written, its transition from republic to empire is likely to warrant special attention. Nor is the emergence of this land and naval juggernaut without precedent. Though history rarely repeats itself in details - both Ancient Rome and Byzantium hold relevant - albeit very limited - lessons.

The first teaches us how seamless the transformation from democracy to military dictatorship appears - when it is gradual and, ostensibly, reactive (responding to external shocks and events). The second illustrates the risks inherent in relying on mercenaries and insurgents as tools of foreign and military policy.

Gold, silver prices rise

Gold prices extended their recent climb Thursday, with traders and analysts citing improved physical demand and chart-based factors as driving forces of the climb.

December gold rose $7.60 to settle at $610.90 a troy ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, while December silver added 3.5 cents to finish at $11.735 an ounce.

Water Scarcity Crossing National Borders

"Historically, water scarcity was a local issue. It was up to national governments to balance water supply and demand. Now this is changing as scarcity crosses national boundaries via the international grain trade," says Lester Brown, President of the Earth Policy Institute, in his book "Plan B 2.0." Since it takes 1,000 tons of water to produce one ton of grain, importing grain is the most efficient way to import water. Countries are, in effect, using grain to balance their water books. Similarly, trading in grain futures is in a sense trading in water futures.

Peak Oil Crisis: The Perfect Storm

Events move quickly these days. Two months ago oil was north of $78 a barrel and, nationwide, gasoline was above to well above $3. The Middle East was threatening a conflagration and another exciting hurricane season was in the offing. Even the concept of peak oil was starting to get some scattered but serious attention in the media.

Now here we are at the end of September. The price of crude is down nearly 25 percent. Gasoline is down 75 cents a gallon. The press is full of stories of a great new oil find in the Gulf that could show the way to a cornucopia of oil. The Dow is pushing an all-time high, and financial analysts are predicting lower inflation and solid growth in the year ahead. Finally, those who don't want to believe in peak oil are loudly proclaiming, "I told you so."

FX Trading – Crude isn’t inflationary alone

What could change the dynamic?

The European Central Bank decides crude oil isn’t a problem, when it comes to inflation and decides not to hike, while the Fed decides crude oil isn’t the problem and decides not to cut.

We are told over and over again by pundits and gurus and analysts and central bankers (and we plead guilty to using crude in the same sloppy logic) that rising crude oil prices lead to inflation. But only if our central banks acquiesce in the process is this true; otherwise crude oil prices shift the composition of consumer spending, but are not inflationary in isolation.

Michael Klare, Why Oil Prices Are Falling

he price of crude oil, which this summer threatened to top $80 a barrel, briefly dipped under $60 for the first time in six months yesterday, a 23% decline from July highs. In the Midwest, where gas not long ago had soared to $3 at the pump, it now averages, according to the Energy Department, a nationwide low of $2.20 a gallon ($1.89 at one Jackson, Missouri gas station).

Cashing in on the fear factor

Just six weeks ago, gasoline prices at the US pump were hovering at the $3-per-gallon (79 cents a liter) mark; now they're inching toward $2 (53 cents a liter) - and some analysts predict even lower numbers before the November elections. The sharp drop in gasoline prices has been good news for US consumers, who now have more money in their pockets to spend on food and other necessities - and for President George W Bush, who has

Peak oil is here

Burn that $2.57 gas while you can. The Houston Chronicle writes that the U.S. Department of Energy just released a report by Robert Hirsch predicting that peak oil production is most likely only 5 years out—and that the fall will definitely come before 2020. Hirsch recommends that the world start investing $1 trillion per year in oil alternatives, like tar sands, oil shale, and gas liquefaction.

“Fatuous”

Popular author James Howard Kunstler was in town Monday for a lecture at UT’s McClung Museum. The author of Geography of Nowhere has in the last decade or so become the nation’s leading opponent of suburban sprawl, which he calls the “national automobile slum” and “an infrastructure for daily life with no future.”

( Need to scroll down on the page to read the article )

The Population Implosion

You can't get more than 10 minutes into a conversation about the environment or urban sprawl or resource depletion or oil wars or global warming or any other such fundamentally dire topic without someone suddenly announcing, "You know -- there are just too many people."

Four billion years of evolution has given our species not only consciousness, but also the gift of self-loathing.

Economics: avoiding the Y2K fallacy

The end of the age of cheap fossil fuels heralds a total revolution in economic affairs worldwide. For the last three hundred years, the key to prosperity has been the replacement of human skill with mechanical energy. The steam-powered factories of 18th century England heralded an economic order in which technological progress and soaring rates of fossil fuel extraction went hand in hand, and success went to those who pushed mechanization into new economic sectors – replacing sails with steam, farm horses with tractors, local theaters with movies and TV, folk culture with mass-produced pop culture, and so on.

Iraqi Kurds raise secession threat over oil

Iraq's Kurdish regional government raised the threat of secession on Wednesday if the Baghdad government did not drop its claims to a say in the development of oil resources in their northern districts.

In a strongly worded response to comments by the Iraqi oil minister, the premier of the autonomous Kurdistan region said he "resented" the remarks by Hussain al-Shahristani and accused him of trying to "sabotage" foreign investment in Kurdish oil.

Iran will not give up atomic work, says president

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Wednesday that Tehran would not suspend nuclear enrichment despite pressure from the West, the semi-official Mehr news agency said.

Western nations have said Iran must suspend enrichment, a process that can be used to make fuel for power stations or material for atomic bombs, to start negotiations over Iran's nuclear program.

Oil prices rise, natural gas falls close to 4-year low after supply increases

Oil prices jumped almost US$2 Wednesday after briefly dropping to nearly $60-a-barrel, while natural gas futures plunged to their lowest level since December 2002.

The seven per cent decline in natural gas futures reflects that "storage is at a record, and there's no demand," said Fimat USA broker Mike Fitzpatrick.

To Peak Oil, Or Not To Peak Oil

We have been struck by the number of bearish reports and comments emanating from analysts, fund managers and assorted pundits with regard to oil, gas and other commodities. Just prior to the release of the FOMC statement on September 19, we heard a well-respected Chicago floor trader gush about how the oil bubble had burst, and how the Fed wouldn’t need to hike interest rates any further. Hearing that, we were tempted to rush out and trade in our 35 miles per gallon Honda for a gas-guzzling SUV as we watched prices at the pump plummet.

The good society

The approaching end of the Tony Blair era is an opportunity to redefine British society's fundamental values and public policies, say Jonathan Rutherford and Hetan Shah of the Compass project.

As Tony Blair prepares to relinquish power and New Labour's governance of Britain faces growing disaffection, a space is opening up for a new politics. Over the past year the pressure-group Compass has been working with hundreds of academics and policymakers and thousands of activists to create a programme for renewal in the post-Blair era. The Good Society, the first of three publications, is the initial fruit of our work.

Oil prices likely to remain high

Consumers can expect that as oil supplies look set to dwindle, oil prices are likely to remain high, says energy industry investor James Kinnear.
Mr. Kinnear, the chairman and chief executive of Pengrowth Corporation, was in Bermuda last week with his executive team to attend the 17th Fall Investment Conference of Pengrowth Energy Trust at the Fairmont Southampton.
"At worst, oil and gas prices will stay above their long term average for some time to come," Mr. Kinnear

Last weeks oil price drop was cyclical and hopeful--

There is a lot of optimism that oil will soon fall below $70 after dropping from nearly $78 to $70 last week. But one trader on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange was quoted on MSNBC as saying that if oil goes below $70 he will buy futures “with both fists.” Reports were breaking everywhere last week predicting this week would see oil continue to drop. But as Iran insisted it will continue to pursue uranium enrichment, that was enough smelling salts to bring the market back to reality.

It is possible a new floor has been set at $70.

Oil price very low, action needed: OPEC chief

Oil prices are very low, harming investment in the industry and something needs to be done to steady the market, OPEC President Edmund Daukoru said on Tuesday.

Daukoru told Reuters the oil exporting group was already talking internally about the price drop, which has seen U.S. crude fall about 20 percent from a record $78.40 a barrel in mid-July to around $61 on Tuesday.

Russia agrees to ship nuclear fuel to Iran

Russia has agreed to ship nuclear fuel for a controversial atomic power plant it is building in Iran's city of Bushehr by March 2007, a senior nuclear official said, local news agencies reported.

The statement by Sergei Shmatko, head of the state company Atomstroiexport building the plant, should allay concerns voiced by Tehran about Moscow dragging its feet on the issue.

Olmert says Israel will not accept a nuclear Iran

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said in comments published Tuesday that Israel would not allow Iran, which it considers its top enemy, to produce nuclear weapons.

"Israel can't accept the possibility of Iranians having nuclear weapons and we will act together with the international forces, starting with the Americans, in order to prevent it," Olmert told The Jerusalem Post daily in an interview.

Ethanol growth threatens habitat

A U.S. group dedicated to promoting capitalism says the current interest in ethanol as a gasoline replacement is grossly uneconomical.

Washington's Competitive Enterprise Institute said Tuesday an analysis of corn-based ethanol has yet to be produced outside experimental production facilities.

CEI, a free-enterprise and limited-government supporter, also said following Brazil's example of producing ethanol from sugar cane would require such a massive expansion of the production of corn and other crops for fuel that it would pre-empt that land's use for feeding much of the world's hungry.

Global warming at 12,000- year high

Earth's temperature has climbed to levels not seen in thousands of years, a warming that has begun to affect plants and animals, researchers report in today's issue of Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The Earth has been warming at a rate of 0.36 degree Fahrenheit per decade for the last 30 years, according to the research team led by James Hansen of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York.

Peak Gold – One More Time

My last article entitled “Peak Gold – Response to Critics” once again resulted in various emails on both sides of the debate as to whether global production of gold peaked back in 2001.

There was one response in particular which merits being added to the reasons given as to why the 5-year decline in global gold production is due to factors other than Peak Gold. Allow me to address it here.

The Arab World and the Challenge of Shifting to the Post-oil Era

What will be the situation of the sources of wealth and the bases of economy after the oil era? This is a question that has not been approached except partially or in the broadest terms possible in some conference and a few seminars that took up the issue. Moreover, tackling these challenges has not been considered a pressing issue, treated as an out of place custom. This is not an objective way of thinking, given that concern with the post-oil era began almost as soon as oil itself became the key, and sometimes only, engine for modern growth.

Making the Tarmac bloom

To engage with people's dreams of a greener future in a post-peak oil world, we need to reach out at a community level.

Oil peaks, valleys, plateaus and plains

The world oil market has been a constant source of frustration for economic forecasters of late. Have the laws of economics been rescinded? The short answer is no.

The basic facts are straightforward. After plunging to a valley of US$10 a barrel during the global financial crises of the late 1990s, oil recovered to average around $30 during much of the 2000-03 period, except for a brief downward blip in late 2001. Then in 2004, prices began a steady upward trek, passing $40, $50, $60 and then $70. The peak earlier this year was $78.

Raymond J. Learsy: The Potential Collapse of Oil Prices Makes Restraint of Gasoline Consumption Key to Controlling CO2 Emissions

We are all becoming well aware of the dangers of an impending and catastrophic climate crisis. The State of California, only recently with bipartisan cooperation, passed laws committing to sharp reductions CO2 emissions. So too have some 295 American cities.
Al Gore has warned that we are near the tipping point of climatic catastrophe. The "Scientific American" has published a prominently featured article recently, whose lead sentence is "The debate on global warming is over." There is a growing consensus throughout the land that emergency solutions are needed. That we owe forceful action now to the planet, and to future generations.

Chevron, Los Alamos to Study U.S. Oil Shale Deposits

Chevron Corp., the second-largest U.S. oil company, said it started a joint research project with the Los Alamos National Laboratory to study hydrocarbon reserves trapped in rock formations known as oil shales.

Oil shales are sedimentary rocks that contain a high proportion of organic matter that can be converted into crude oil or natural gas. The research will be based on formations in the Piceance Basin in Colorado and experiment with underground processing techniques that might mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, Chevron said in a statement.

Fighting the wrong war

George Bush's battle to control the world's oil supply has cost billions of dollars, much more than it would have cost to discover new sources of energy.

The coming resource war.

Earlier this year, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad arrived in China--and quickly made himself at home. The occasion was a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a regional group linking China, Russia, and Central Asia. During the summit, Ahmadinejad seemed to be everywhere. He posed, arms linked, with Russian and Chinese officials, who said nothing as he called for "impartial and independent experts" to investigate whether the Holocaust happened. He delivered a major address broadcast on Chinese state television. He touted Moscow, Tehran, and Beijing's "identical" views on world issues. And he proposed making "the SCO into a strong and influential economic, political, and trade institution [to] thwart the threat of domineering powers." One can guess which domineering power he had in mind....

( Registration required - try http://www.bugmenot.com )

Nuclear power pushed for oil sands production

Reliance on natural gas as heating source is industry's Achilles heel: Swedish group


The much-touted potential for Canada's oil sands to offset projected declines in North American oil production remains highly questionable because of constraints on natural gas production and environmental problems, a group of Swedish industry experts concludes in a new report.

To meet its ambitious targets, the industry would likely require the construction of a nuclear power plant near Fort McMurray in Alberta in order to replace natural gas in the energy-intensive production process, the scientists argue.

Cheap gas until the election?

I filled my tank with gas for $1.89 a gallon last week. Some station in your area might be even cheaper. But there's no question that the cost of gas is down across the country these days.

Then there's more good news for drivers: Earlier this month, Chevron and a couple other oil companies announced that they found a mammoth oil field deep under the Gulf of Mexico promising a domestic source of oil for years to come.

This summer, with gas at historic highs, it was easy to believe that America might be running out of cheap oil. The theory of peak oil started to spread. The theory says that world oil production is about to reach its highest possible level and then begin an unstoppable decline just as China and India start to compete with us for the remaining oil.

Iran: The Complex Calculus of Preventive Military Action

Faltering diplomacy to suspend Iran's nuclear program -- highlighted by French president Jacques Chirac's September 18, 2006, call to temporarily suspend the threat of United Nations sanctions on Iran -- has revived speculation that the United States might undertake preventive action to thwart Iran's nuclear ambitions.

U.S. policymakers considering prevention face a range of uncertainties that greatly complicate their decision calculus. To some extent, their bottom line is likely to depend on how they weigh competing factors: What can prevention accomplish? Can the risks of Iranian retaliation be mitigated? Can the consequences of Iranian proliferation be managed? And can a nuclear Iran be deterred? Policymakers must also consider a number of other political and military-technical factors that are likely to complicate the calculus of prevention and to influence a decision to act.

Ignore Global Warming, There Is No Practical Solution, Let’s Be Realistic

It is time to really look at what faces the human race, the whole picture, not the broken up concepts that make us feel like we are actually in control of our fate.

We are an incredibly positive, optimistic culture. It is not fashionable to sound negative, but sometimes reality is like that. The issue of Global Warming falls into this category. Society analyzes a problem to fix it like a car engine. But the hallmark of civilized thinking is that we shy away from seeing the whole picture, the scale of the entire problem.

Oil crunch

U.S. Energy Department study concludes crude production will peak, requiring other energy forms

Last September, a Chronicle editorial warned that global oil production would peak in this decade or the next, and then inexorably decline. Given that likelihood, the United States would have to embark on a crash program to develop alternative energy sources or endure crippling increases in the price of energy.

Last week, a study performed for the U.S. Department of Energy concurred with the editorial's conclusions.

OPEC oil output cut may be just a question of time

Oil's rapid descent to $60 is ringing alarm bells in many OPEC countries and the question now is when, not if, the producer group will cut supplies.

Prices have fallen $5 a barrel since the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed on Sept. 11 to hold output steady despite a sharp drop from a mid-July peak of $78.40.

Ministers voiced concern then, with U.S. crude oil at $66, about the speed of the decline and raised the prospect of braking production before the end of the year.

Korea Needs to Prepare for Global LNG War

Energy. What is it? Where does it come from? Korea recently celebrated its national Independence Day, but how can Korea provide for its own energy independence given that we as a nation are energy resource poor? Korea uses nuclear, hydropower, coal, oil and natural gas as its five primary forms of energy.

Every part of Korean life today, whether it is the heating or cooling of homes or the light by which we work, depends upon access to these five principal forms of energy.

Korea’s mighty industrial complex, which has made us one of the largest value-added exporting nations in the world, is entirely dependent on imported energy.

Ski fields threatened by global warming?

Mountain water resources are under threat from global warming and increased usage of the precious resource by ski resorts, scientists warned at a conference in the French Alps.

"Mountains concentrate an important chunk of precipitation. All the great rivers of the world take their source from them. They are the planet's water castles," said Jean-Francois Donzier, director general of the International Office for Water, a non-profit research centre based in Paris.

Global warming?

The words "global warming" provoke a sharp retort from Colorado State University meteorology professor emeritus William Gray: "It's a big scam."

And the name of climate researcher Kevin Trenberth elicits a sputtered "opportunist."

At the National Center for Atmospheric Research, where Trenberth works, Gray's name prompts dismay. "Bill Gray is completely unreasonable," Trenberth says. "He has a mind block on this."

The Myth Of Alternative Energy

Alternative sources of energy will never be very useful, for several reasons, but mainly because of a problem of "net energy": the amount of energy output is not sufficiently greater than the amount of energy input. Alternative sources simply don't have enough "bang" to replace 30 billion annual barrels of oil.

A further problem with alternative sources of energy is that conventional oil is required to extract, process, and transport almost any other form of energy; a coal mine is not operated by coal-powered equipment. It takes "oil energy" to make "alternative energy."

The Collapse of Civilisation

It’s not possible to talk deeply about the US invasion of Iraq without talking about perception, entitlement, and the end of civilisation. On September 11, 2006, George W Bush said, of the US invasion of Iraq and more broadly what he calls the “War on Terror,” that, “In truth, it is a struggle for civilisation.”

Throughout that speech, as he has done throughout the past several years, he repeatedly framed his invasions of both Afghanistan and Iraq as defensive wars.

Get ready for oil supplies to dwindle, experts warn

Crude oil makes Kjell Aleklett think about wild strawberries.

Aleklett, a Swedish professor of physics, sees inescapable similarities between the steady depletion of the world's most coveted energy source and the foraging habits of berry afficionados.

"In Sweden we have strawberry fields where you can go out and pick for yourself. If you go out there in the morning there is a possibility that you can pick a big volume of strawberries. But the first picker picks the big ones. The last one is left with the small ones. It's very much the same thing when it comes to the production of gas and oil.

Weekly Petroleum Status Report

This post is based on the inventory data reported every week by the EIA here and here. I decided to update a serie of graphs every week based on the current data. The idea is to try to give more context and enhance any eventual outliers or events in the data.

Predictions vary, but one day the oil will run out

In his 2006 State of the Union address, President George W. Bush declared that the U.S. is a nation “addicted to oil” and vowed to take steps to reduce Middle Eastern imports by 75 percent by 2025.

After a summer of $3-plus gasoline, most of us would see this as a good idea. But it may be too late. According to a growing cadre of petroleum geologists, the days of cheap oil are over. At issue is a concept called Hubbert's Peak, named for former oil-company geologist M. King Hubbert.

(How can we already be) looking at the end of the age of oil and abundant energy

The following is a guest essay by Jan Lundberg, who, in search of depaving opportunities, lives in San Francisco with no car. He founded Culturechange.org and organizes Petrocollapse Conferences. He can be reached via email. The essay may find its way into his forthcoming book.

US home sales data offer cautionary tale to investors

My presence in the markets since 1988 has provided me ample opportunities to learn from the masters and the time span provides the perspective and opportunity to use that data for profitable purposes.

In their excellent books, Ron Insana (Message of the markets) and Stephen Leeb (The oil factor) have talked at varying lengths about the impact of real estate prices on the equity / commodity markets.

Put crudely, petrol panic runs out of puff

TWO months ago, Australia was being told to brace for petrol prices of $2 a litre.

Israel was pummelling southern Lebanon, US motorists were draining fuel reserves, and oil traders were talking up the real chance a barrel of oil would soon be worth $US100.

What a difference a few months can make.

Peak Oil Passnotes: Why Is Oil at $60?

When a commodity or a stock moves fast we tend to get very excited. We hope to discover whether or not it has made some kind of quantum leap or is just part of a long term trend. So what the heck is happening to crude oil? Is this a slip? A correction? Or gigantic profit taking? Or none of the above?

Since we last wrote this column oil has continued its most excellent nosedive, actually breaching the $60 at $59.80 intraday this week. Just six weeks ago it was busting out at $78 and everyone � this commentator included � thought it was only a matter of time before $80 oil arrived.

Oil pressure

“The oil belongs to the Iraqi people. It’s their asset,” declared President George W. Bush in a press conference on the White House lawn in June. He had just returned from a surprise visit to Baghdad, in which oil had been one of the main subjects of discussion.

“We talked about how to advise the government to best use that money for the benefit of the people,” he clarified.

Since the new Iraqi government was formed in May 2006, the U.S. government has dramatically scaled up its efforts to provide “advice.” In July, the administration and major oil companies reviewed and commented on a new law governing Iraq’s crucial oil sector, before it has even been seen by the Iraqi Parliament.

Is a military showdown with Iran in the offing?

President Bush said of late that he will never allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons. This said, and Iran's flat rejection the European Union's package of incentives which was offered to it in return for a halt in uranium enrichment makes the issue all the more ominous. Instead, Iran vowed it will never stop uranium enrichment and what appeared to be a challenge to the West launched a new phase in a heavy water project despite a looming UN sanctions.

Oil Scene

An engrossing, encompassing and interesting debate is raging and the entire energy fraternity is passionately involved. Proponents and the opponents of the peak oil theory are out in open — putting across their diametrically opposite arguments, in a charged atmosphere.

Leading from the front, Saudi Aramco Chief Executive Abdallah S. Jum'ah is now forcefully arguing that at the current consumption levels, the world has enough oil to last — for at least 140 more years. Admitting though in a very conspicuous manner that crude remains a finite source, and none can indeed debate it, he emphasized the world has tapped only a considerably small portion, than previously thought, of this precious natural resource.

Pickens: 'Fundamentals' driving oil price

Dallas oilman T. Boone Pickens says "fundamentals" are the reason the spot-market price of oil has fallen recently to $61 per barrel from nearly $79.

"I hear people say, 'Well, finally we're getting the terrorist premium out of the market,' " Pickens said during a Thursday luncheon in his honor in Dallas. "They ask, 'How much do you think the terrorist premium is?' I say, 'What do you think?' And they say, 'Well, $10, at least.'

The gusher paradox

A new oil discovery is great for the drillers - but may be bad for us.

The recent discovery of a massive oilfield under the Gulf of Mexico appears to be a godsend for our crude-hungry country. It's not that simple, however. The new deep-water find is a pointed example of the way elevated oil and gas prices always seem to lead us to new technologies and, eventually, to renewed supplies. But one giant new gusher does nothing to get us off the gerbil wheel of ever more consumption creating ever more demand.

In case you missed it, in early September a consortium of Chevron (Charts), Devon Energy (Charts), and Norway's Statoil announced it had struck oil at the Jack No. 2 well, some 170 miles southwest of New Orleans and 29,000 feet down through water and earth. Geologists estimate that the area contains anywhere from three billion to 15 billion barrels.

The Peak Oil Crisis: A Report to the Senate

Last fall Australia’s Senate, concerned about the future of the country’s oil supply, directed a standing committee to conduct an inquiry. The Committee was charged with investigating projections for the production and demand for oil inside Australia and globally, and the implications for the availability and price of transportation fuel. In essence, the Committee was asked to investigate peak oil.

To gather information, the Committee advertised hearings and wrote to many organizations inviting submissions. In response came 192 written replies from all over the world. The Committee also held nine public hearings. Two weeks ago the preliminary findings were issued as an interim report. A final report is to be released next month.

Production declines in spite of high oil prices

While the price of West Texas Intermediate oil was above $70/barrel for much of the first half of 2006 and the average price of all oil grades was about $27/barrel higher than the average during 2004, global liquid hydrocarbons production declined more than 100,000 barrels/day (b/d) compared to the first half of 2005, according to U.S. Department of Energy/Energy Information Administration (US DOE/EIA) data.

For comparison purposes, global liquid hydrocarbons production increased 3.43 mb/d in 2004 and 1.47 mb/d in 2005.

Oil Prices Rebound in Asian Trading

Oil prices rose in Asian trading Friday, rebounding from a midweek drop triggered by figures showing a surge in U.S. distillate supplies.

Light, sweet crude for November delivery gained 23 cents to $61.82 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, midmorning in Singapore. The contract on Thursday rose 85 cents to settle at $61.59 per barrel.

Sugar prices an example of commodity gone sour

To understand how commodities went from the best investment this year to lagging behind bonds and stocks, consider the sugar market.

Sugar more than doubled in the eight months leading to March, when Andreas Meyer, who helps run Merit Alternative Investments in Vienna, and Michael Coleman, a hedge fund manager in Singapore, predicted the rally would accelerate.

Instead prices dropped 24 percent after Brazil and India produced bumper crops and demand for sugar's use in alternative fuels decreased.

Wall Street October 1929

Claud Cockburn, writing for the "Times of London" from New-York, described the irrational exuberance that gripped the nation just prior to the Great Depression. As Europe wallowed in post-war malaise, America seemed to have discovered a new economy, the secret of uninterrupted growth and prosperity, the fount of transforming technology:

"The atmosphere of the great boom was savagely exciting, but there were times when a person with my European background felt alarmingly lonely. He would have liked to believe, as these people believed, in the eternal upswing of the big bull market or else to meet just one person with whom he might discuss some general doubts without being regarded as an imbecile or a person of deliberately evil intent - some kind of anarchist, perhaps."

Study finds wind power is fastest growing alternative energy source

According to the Earth Policy Institute, a private organization dedicated to providing a vision of an environmentally sustainable economy, wind is the world's fastest-growing energy source with an average annual growth rate of 29 percent over the last 10 years.

In contrast, over the same time period, coal use has grown by 2.5 percent per year, nuclear power by 1.8 percent, natural gas by 2.5 percent and oil by 1.7 percent, according to a report published this summer by the organization.

U.S. wind energy capacity now exceeds a record 10,000 megawatts and produces enough electricity per day to power more than 2.5 million homes, the American Wind Energy Association announced last week.

Bumps on the road for U.S. ethanol vehicles

Brad Beldon bought a 2007 flexible-fuel Chevrolet Suburban that runs on either gasoline or a mostly ethanol fuel blend, thinking it would be good for the environment.

But Beldon, of San Antonio, Texas, can only find two service stations that carry E85, a fuel made from 85 percent corn ethanol and 15 percent gasoline. Both stations are clear across town, and he said he doubts whether he'd ever buy another flex-fuel car.

The Hidden Cost of Ethanol

I have posted a couple of times before about the Oil Industry (here, here, here), and commented at various blogs about why gasoline substitutes are not the panacea for our energy woes. In short the energy to mass ratio is not high enough for most substitutes to be an efficient alternative.

Mass tourism and climate change could lead to destruction of world's wonders

Gloomy predictions of extreme heat and destruction of some of the world's leading holiday destinations were made yesterday in a report assessing the impact of the dangers of mass tourism and climate change.

The Future of World Travel report found that by 2020 the natural features of some of the wonders of the world will be damaged by global warming, while other resorts will become seriously overcrowded.

Human influence on climate change found, scientists say

Canadian and British scientists say they have found human fingerprints on climate change in Canada, southern Europe and China.

Their research is the first to combine results from several different computer models, which increases their confidence in the results.

Researchers at Environment Canada and the British Meteorological Office conclude that human activities have contributed substantially to climate change seen in Canada over the second half of the 20th century and that the change cannot be attributed to natural climate variability.

SHORT-TERM COOLING OF OCEANS SUGGEST 'SPEED BUMP' IN WARMING

— The average temperature of the water near the top of the Earth's oceans has cooled significantly since 2003. The new research suggests that global warming trends are not always steady in their effects on ocean temperatures.

White House Outlines Global Warming Fight

The Bush administration yesterday laid out a long-term "strategic plan" for using technology to curb the impact of global warming, reiterating its position that basic scientific research and voluntary actions can curb greenhouse gases linked to climate change.

Addressing complaints by environmentalists and some scientists that Bush has not done enough to cut the nation's emissions of such gases, Energy Secretary Samuel W. Bodman said the 244-page "Climate Change Technology Program Strategic Plan" promotes initiatives such as sequestering carbon dioxide before it enters the atmosphere and promoting hydrogen-powered cars.

Meeting ‘peak-oil threat’ will cost $20tn: US

The world needs to spend $1tn a year in alternative fuels, starting 20 years before the peak in conventional oil production, in order to mitigate fuel shortages, a US Energy Department study showed.
Production peaks in Texas, the UK and Norway were examined as part of two studies for the department that advised on “crash course’’ efforts to cope with an eventual shortage of gasoline and other liquid fuels.
The study, led by Robert Hirsch, didn’t predict when world production will peak, though Hirsch told reporters his guess is “within the next five to 10 years.’’

Global warming and peak oil

We tend to see urban pollution as a modern problem. But did you know that urban pollution was a serious problem for Western world cities as far back as 200 years ago?

The greatest source of pollution for 19th-century cities was, believe it or not, the horse. Horses were ubiquitous back then. They drew pretty much anything that was heavy and had to move. Horse-drawn carriages, trains, wagons, supply carts...you name it.

Can the Bicycle Save Civilization?

Thanks to the triumph of motorized vehicles over the past century, North Americans, who constitute some five percent of the world's population, consume fully a quarter of the world's energy.

The sprawl built environment that grew out of car use is the most wasteful arrangement in history, swallowing energy, materials, and farmland at a breathtaking rate.

A Sensible Alternative: Toward an International Energy Transition Plan

Special Report: Peak Oil

The ideological trap of market-only mechanisms is one reason the Kyoto Treaty is likely unworkable.

Kyoto's original goals of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to the 1990 levels of its signatories by at latest 2012 while increasing renewable energy production and sustainable economic development are supposed to be achieved almost exclusively by a small number of gimmicks such as so-called 'carbon trading'.

Bombing campaign in Iraq oil city kills at least 27

IRAQ'S fragile northern oil city of Kirkuk was hit yesterday by a wave of bombings targeting the security forces that killed at least 27 people.

In a dramatic attack, a bomber firing a machinegun with one hand and driving a bomb-laden truck with the other detonated his vehicle near a police centre, killing at least 19 people, officials said.

Six other blasts rocked the city, killing another eight people.

Is It All About Oil?

If the war was all about oil, Iraq would have been invaded by the European Union, or Japan - whose dependence on Middle Eastern oil is far greater than the United States'. The USA would have, probably, taken over Venezuela, a much larger and proximate supplier with its own emerging tyrant to boot.

At any rate, the USA refrained from occupying Iraq when it easily could have, in 1991. Why the current American Administration's determination to conquer the desert country and subject it to direct rule, at least initially?

There is another explanation, insist keen-eyed analysts.

Why Bush is taking a more diplomatic approach on Iran

With prospects fading for tough economic sanctions against Iran anytime soon, the United States is shifting its stance even more solidly toward a diplomatic solution to Tehran's nuclear ambitions.

President Bush is sounding more conciliatory, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is approving more leeway for the Europeans to pursue talks with the Iranians - and everyone is insisting the aim is to allow Tehran the peaceful nuclear-power program it says is its only goal.

The US insists that the option of sanctions remains on the table, but the reasons for the softer approach appear to be twofold. First, Iranian officials are themselves sending mixed messages about their openness to suspending uranium enrichment in exchange for broad talks with the West. And second, international powers appear further than ever from joining to impose the sanctions they had agreed to this summer if Tehran did not suspend the nuclear activities that could lead to a bomb.

International community discussing new timeline for Iran in nuclear standoff

The nations seeking to halt Iran's nuclear activities are working out a new deadline for Tehran despite continuing differences over possible sanctions, the French foreign minister said Wednesday.

With world leaders gathered at the United Nations, the United States had hoped to drive decisively this week toward political and economic sanctions against Iran after it missed an Aug. 31 U.N. Security Council deadline to halt disputed uranium enrichment that many believe is aimed at making a bomb.

US ethanol, a tall order to fill

Some believe that ethanol is the answer to US dependency on foreign oil, but other say that the possible environmental cost may be too much to pay.

Ethanol appears poised to become either the most coveted source of alternative automotive fuel in the US, or a victim of its own hype, which has already resulted in rising prices for the corn-based alternative to petrol-based fuels.

U.S. sees delay in big rise in alternative motor fuels

The Bush administration says the United States needs an extra 20 years to meet Congress' goal of having almost a third of U.S. motor fuel supply come from energy sources other than gasoline.

Congress passed energy legislation in 1992 mandating that 30 percent of the fuel used to run U.S. cars and trucks by 2010 come from ethanol, natural gas, hydrogen, electricity or other replacement fuels.

Scientists Chide Exxon on Global Warming

Britain's leading scientific academy has accused oil company Exxon Mobil Corp. of misleading the public about global warming and funding groups that undermine the scientific consensus on climate change.

The Royal Society said Wednesday that it had written to Exxon asking it to halt support for groups that have "misrepresented the science of climate change."

California sued the six biggest automakers in the U.S., including General Motors Corp. and Ford Motor Co., saying their vehicles add to global warming

Commerce Department officials may have tried to stop a government scientist from speaking to reporters because of his views on global warming, a California congressman says.

The officials "tried to suppress a federal scientist from discussing the link between global warming and hurricanes," according to a letter sent Tuesday from Rep. Henry Waxman to Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez.

California Sues GM, Ford, Toyota Over Global Warming

California sued the six biggest automakers in the U.S., including General Motors Corp. and Ford Motor Co., saying their vehicles add to global warming and cost the state billions of dollars to fight pollution and erosion.

General Motors, Ford, Toyota Motor Corp., DaimlerChrysler AG, Honda Motor Co. and Nissan Motor Co. have created a ``public nuisance'' by making millions of vehicles that emit huge quantities of carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas that increases the temperature of the earth's atmosphere, according to a complaint filed today in U.S. District Court in Oakland.

Scraping the barrel

Our oil supplies could soon start to decline. How will the world adapt?

The world is addicted to oil. But with finite reserves, even the recent discovery of a huge oil field in the Gulf of Mexico does little to assuage concerns about a crisis.

"Black gold" has given the developed world mobility, diversity and personal freedom. It fuels the commute to work, the flight abroad. It's in plastics, paints and synthetic fibres. In short, it's everywhere. The depletion of oil will have a profound effect on the lives of young people. They need to know what's around the corner.

Air attack coming against Iran's nuclear plants

In his televised 9/11 address, President Bush said that we must not "leave our children to face a Middle East overrun by terrorist states and radical dictators armed with nuclear weapons." There's only one such current candidate: Iran.

The next day, he responded thus (as reported by Rich Lowry and Kate O'Beirne of National Review) to a question on Iran: "It's very important for the American people to see the president try to solve problems diplomatically before resorting to military force."

"Before" implies that the one follows the other. The signal is unmistakable. An aerial attack on Iran's nuclear facilities lies just beyond the horizon of diplomacy. With the crisis advancing and the moment of truth approaching, it is important to begin looking now with unflinching honesty at the military option.

Oil is a finite resource, but is a topic that draws out seemingly infinite opinions

I wanted to be a geologist once — even claimed it as my major at the University of Georgia. Then they made me take calculus. I decided on a degree in English not too long thereafter, thinking I’d read books about oil and rocks instead.

Research for last week’s column on the oil discovery in the Gulf intrigued me, as did the responses I received. Like addicts worrying about where our next fix will come from, we all seem to have an opinion on the future of oil. Back in the 1950s geologist Marion King Hubbert posited that crude oil was a finite resource and went on to illustrate when the U.S. and world would reach a peak in production by using a bell curve. The curve rises from left to right, as new oil is discovered and infrastructure is put in place to extract it. The curve goes back down as supplies dwindle. Somewhere about the middle of this diagram known as “Hubbert Curve” is the point referred to as “Peak Oil.”

Has The Oil Price Peaked?

"Even the deadest of all dead cats bounce if they are thrown down hard enough."

US based trading guru Dennis Gartman does not always paint a pretty picture in his daily newsletter, but his market insights are often of an invaluable quality.

After nine days of pure carnage the falling spot oil price has come to a pause in the US$62-64 per barrel (WTI) region. So is this it? Is this the bounce that comes from the deadest of all dead cats?

Gartman certainly seems to think so. In his latest update on matters he concludes: "[oil] is the deadest of dead cats, and its bounce is the barest of margins." Gartman is not a fan of peak oil (not a fan at all!) and he believes this market may move further south still, suggesting such a minor bounce after such big price falls does not bode well for the immediate price prospects of spot oil.

Those quick to deride peak oil theory also don't know Jack

chronic pitfall for economists is that the daily deluge of data often obscures more meaningful long-term trends.

Even months of data can seductively point to a conclusion that doesn't stand the test of time.

( Registration required - try using bugmenot.com )

Bush, Iran's Ahmadinejad clash over nuclear rights

U.S. President George W. Bush and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad clashed over Iran's nuclear ambitions in long-range rhetorical sparring before the United Nations on Tuesday.

Bush accused Iran's rulers of squandering their nation's wealth to fund terrorists and nuclear arms research but, with international support uncertain, he said he was willing to give diplomacy more time before resorting to sanctions.

Egyptian president's son proposes developing nuclear energy

The son of Egypt's president urged his father's party on Tuesday to consider a proposal to develop nuclear energy, taking a controversial stance as he seeks to position himself regionally as a serious politician.

Gamal Mubarak, who addressed delegates of the country's ruling party in which he holds a post, has repeatedly denied speculation that he wants to succeed his father, President Hosni Mubarak.

Rig shortage called hindrance to growth

A global shortage of rigs will hamper attempts to raise global oil and natural gas output for years, oil services company executives and consultants said on Monday.

As producers look to boost crude and gas output to meet soaring demand growth, the global supply of rigs is stretched to the limit and is insufficient to meet industry needs.

Rivers of Gold

Profit is not a dirty word.

But greed is. So, this scares me:

Those who got rich profiteering from the world's oil crisis, are now turning their sights to a new commodity: Water.

It's a no-brainer: Parts of the world are already suffering from water shortages. And with climate change, plus exploding populations, it's only going to get worse, experts warn.

OPEC Secretary General says Thunderhorse doesn't ease glut fear

OPEC's acting Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo said Tuesday that an 18-month delay in crude production from BP PLC's (BP) troubled Thunderhorse platform in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico doesn't ease the group's fears about an excess of supply in the second half of this year.
Speaking by phone from Riyadh, Barkindo said the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries remains "concerned about the third and fourth quarter," and that 2007, when Thunderhorse was originally due back in production, is "still a long way off. We have to see how they go."

Russian oil reversal stirs outcry

Nine months after piquing European governments by shutting the flow of natural gas in a pricing dispute during the coldest days of winter, Russia faced another din of international criticism Tuesday about its energy policies, this time from Asia.

Russian regulators withdrew an environmental permit Monday for the $20 billion Sakhalin-II oil and natural gas development, which employs 17,000 people, with the two largest Japanese trading and engineering companies as minority owners.

Climate change makes fish migrate - experts

A warm-water Atlantic triple fin fish has, for the first time, been caught off the coast of Britain, in another sign of species migrating north as global temperatures rise, experts said on Tuesday.

The triple fin fish is usually found off the coasts of Africa, South America and the Mediterranean, but was caught by fisherman Michael Roberts in the Bristol Channel, where he was hoping to catch salmon and sea trout, they said.

On fighting global warming--the deception, that is, not the event

Global warming? Bah, humbug!

WASHINGTON'S PBS station, WETA, ran a particularly inter- esting show recently. It featured authentication of an ancient buffalo skull found in a sand bank on the Arkansas River near Tulsa. The animal was young and killed by a Calf Creek Indian chert spearpoint imbedded near one of the horns.

The skull was of a now extinct giant buffalo with horns that were heavy and straight where modern bison have smaller curving horns. The spearpoint came from 70 miles east in Arkansas, and the kill was carbon-dated at over 5,100 years ago.

Then my ears perked up when the narrator said that this was about the time the Indians began to venture out onto the Great Plains again after several hundred years of drought. He said a climate change brought back the grass, and that brought the buffalo and that brought the Indians. It would be interesting to know if a later climate change resulted in the extinction of the giant buffalo.

As We See It: Oil prices don't change need for conservation, alternatives

Just a few weeks ago, the price of oil was causing extreme anxiety for consumers and endless gloomy forecasting by critics of Big Oil.

The scenario that was sketched was basically this: the world is running out of oil, and oil companies are strangling the market, aided and abetted by corrupt petro-nations such as Saudi Arabia.

Prices will continue rising as the rich get richer. Inflation skyrockets, and the rest of us try to come up with the cash to buy hybrid cars.

No one figured that the price of oil would actually drop.

PEAK OILERS DOOMED � TODAY�S HIGH ALERT

According to a September 11 AP, article, �Peak Oil Theories Wrong, Says ExxonMobil Boss,� ExxonMobil Australia chairman Mark Nolan �used his speech to the Asia Pacific oil and gas conference to debunk the theory of peak oil, which suggests oil supplies have peaked and will dwindle over the next 20 years.�

According to the AP, Nolan said, �The fact is that the world has an abundance of oil and there is little question, scientifically, that abundant energy resources exist. According to the US Geological Survey, the earth currently has more than three trillion barrels of conventional, recoverable oil resources. So far we have produced one trillion.�

Free Market Has Fatal Flaws

There has been a lot written about the Free Market in this paper recently. ``Let the market sort things out,`` say the pundits, always cheerful and placing all their faith in the seeming infallibility of the unfettered human mind.

But actually, the Free Market does not do a very good job of ensuring a better life for everyone. One man argues that South Korean rice is drastically overpriced. Well it is, compared to Calrose or Thai rice. So what? The system basically works. One can still go into a restaurant in Korea and get a solid meal for much less than you can in America and basically all of Europe, and that meal comes with a bowl of this ``very expensive rice.’’ Open up that market to the forces of free trade and you will probably pay the same price for that meal that includes that overpriced rice, while consequently a lot of farmers will lose their jobs. And we don’t need any more angry farmers.

Appetite for oil fuels America's warmongering

You haven't heard a word about oil from President Bush or his Cabinet as they've gone about the country on their pre-Halloween scarefest, trying to frighten voters into supporting their so-called war on terror. They've spoken of freedom and civilization, courage and cowardice, Nazis and appeasers.

But they haven't mentioned oil.

The World's Survival Vs. Israel's Survival: The Real World Order

I had my first actual malignant cancer surgery done on my upper lip recently: The first real step of mortality. For the first time in my adult life, I am without health insurance. Oh, so this is what it feels like. As I sit in the waiting room for the results of the biopsy, I think to myself, this is nothing compared to the victims of the Middle Eastern wars, human bodies: Burned, poisoned, crushed and severed. I can’t get the picture out of my mind. Claude Thomas’s (the Vietnam vet/Buddhist who wrote At Hell’s Gate: A Soldier’s Journey) talks of the complicity between the military apparatus of a country and that country’s civilians. The blood is on our hands.

US, China rivalry spurs debate in India

With its burgeoning economy and muscular military, India is becoming a valued prize in the growing rivalry between the United States and China.

A struggle has developed among India's power elite over which path to follow, toward Beijing or Washington. Some analysts and politicians in India say the country should take advantage of the situation and play today's superpower against tomorrow's. Others are calling for India to embrace one of the suitors.

Energy synergy

India, US, China, Japan and South Korea have decided to make common cause as the world's major buyers of oil. They make up half the oil consumption of 80 million barrels per day (BPD), while the US alone accounts for a fourth of world oil consumption.

Their coming together they plan to meet in Beijing on October 23-26 to draw up price stabilisation plans augurs well for the world economy, which could hit a speedbreaker if prices continue to be unstable. This cartel of buyers can coordinate placement of large orders as well as futures contracts to check against price fluctuation.

Rig shortage to stunt oil output growth for years

A global shortage of rigs will hamper attempts to raise global oil and gas output for years, oil service company executives and consultants said on Monday.

As producers look to boost crude and gas output to meet soaring demand growth, the global supply of rigs is stretched to the limit and is insufficient to meet industry needs.

Is pump price drop tied to Nov. elections?

The sharp drop in prices at the pump has a number of readers wondering: Is this just a ploy to defuse the issue of gasoline prices from the upcoming November elections? Ted in Connecticut wants to know: When the stock market collapsed after the 2000 bubble — just where, exactly, did all that money go?

Does anybody but myself wonder why oil prices have begun a rather precipitous drop just as the November elections approach? Just a coincidence?

Uranium becoming Texas gold

In a rutted pasture just beyond Margaret Rutherford's fence line, a three-man drilling crew busily bored holes into the Goliad Aquifer, taking sand samples every 10 feet.

"We drill it to 420 feet and then they come and log it. So far they have found very little uranium, not enough to produce," said Efrain Gutierrez, 39, a driller from Hebbronville.

Across the field, a second mobile rig also punched holes into the aquifer sands. And according to Gutierrez, the search for uranium here will not end soon.

WHY IS GOLD PRODUCTION FALLING?

Part of the bears� case for the level of global gold production, and hence lower prices, rests upon the assumption that increased exploration and demand will converge to bring about new discoveries with concomitant production, leading to lower prices. However, current research lends little to support this contention.

Natural gas hydrates project clears major hurdle

A project to tap concentrated natural gas trapped in the Arctic permafrost near Tuktoyaktuk, N.W.T., can go ahead without a lengthy environmental assessment, the local screening committee has decided.

Drilling waste from the Mallik natural gas hydrate project will be transported to British Columbia for disposal, alleviating a concern of the Inuvialuit in the Beaufort Delta region.

China's dangerous dustbowl

Overgrazing, logging, and loss of ground water turn nearly a million acres into desert every year, displacing millions and cutting global food supply.

A new Chinese export has been spreading quietly across Asia and America: dust.

Is corn ethanol a viable fuel? Experts disagree

As swords clash in Decatur over whether the potential stench of a corn ethanol plant would be worth the money it would bring, scientists debate a more fundamental question: Is corn ethanol a viable fuel?

Two of the nation�s foremost experts come to different conclusions. One said Friday that U.S. corn ethanol policies are a disastrous waste of money and food. The other said corn ethanol, while not efficient as a fuel, is an important first step as America accepts ethanol and begins the investment necessary to find better sources for it than corn.

Ethanol is a gimmick, not an answer to high gas prices

Crude oil prices remain high. The closing of the Prudhoe Bay pipeline is putting an extra strain on California drivers. And politicians in Washington are scrambling to respond. The latest Capitol Hill darling is ethanol, which supporters claim will reduce dependence on foreign oil -- because the fuel is derived from corn -- and also combat global warming.

Surprisingly, Detroit's big three automakers are also going along for the ride. They are promoting the production of ``flex-fuel'' vehicles, which run on ethanol, as a solution that could lower gas prices and help the environment.

Global warming is no commie plot

IS there finally a change of climate on climate change? Are the CO2 sceptics who see global warming as a commie plot suffocating in their own silliness? If so, it's tantamount to the flat-earthers belatedly conceding a certain planetary curvature. Or the creationists confessing that Charles Darwin wasn't the Antichrist.

For decades people living in a greenhouse effect have been throwing stones at the science that seeks to save them. Now one senses a hasty retreat in the face of the Himalayan heap of hard facts presented in a host of refereed journals; in An Inconvenient Truth, where Al Gore's graphs soar as steeply as the south col of Everest.

Green business - Creating the climate for change

Leading businesses are challenging climate change sceptics by showing how it pays to be green
It's been out for a while in the US, but in the UK we have just had a first pre-screen viewing of Al Gore's 'An Inconvenient Truth'.

It has been a timely reminder of how much the issue of climate change continues to dominate a key aspect of the agenda for corporate social responsibility.

Instability drops, oil follows suit: Mandil

This week oil prices continued to slide, with OPEC ministers announcing they would not be throttling back on production just yet, and the Paris-based International Energy Agency lowering its forecasts for world oil demand. Check out just how much the price has fallen since early last month, when the price was just short of $US80 a barrel. It has dropped almost 20 per cent since then to be back where it was 12 months ago. So have the dynamics fundamentally changed, or is just temporary relief? For his take on things, I spoke to one of the world's leading observers of the oil market - executive director of the International Energy Agency, Claude Mandil - from a very noisy Champs Elysees in Paris. Monsieur Mandil, a few weeks ago, the oil price was $77 or so. There were predictions that it would go much higher. Now it is $66, in the middle of the 60s, and apparently sinking. So is something fundamental changing in the oil market do you think, or are we just seeing the removal of the premium for instability in the Middle East?

Capacity limits to curb oil price fall

THE world should get used to oil prices above $US60 a barrel for at least the next two years due to capacity shortages, said Claude Mandil, the executive director of the International Energy Agency.

Speaking from Paris, Mr Mandil told ABC's Inside Business that increased upstream supplies were not expected until at least 2008 and refining capacity would probably not increase until 2010 or 2011.

"I expect at this time, barring, of course, any unexpected event, we could again see prices which are at a more comfortable level," he said.

Oil Companies Are Now Debunking 'Peak Oil' Alarmists

"That argument known as peak-oil theory has provided intellectual backing for the boom in crude prices. . ." This quote comes a September 14 Wall Street Journal article that was entitled "Producers Move to Debunk Gloomy 'Peak Oil' Forecasts" and detailed efforts by Exxon Mobil and Aramco to counter peak oil advocates.

Don't start thinking of Gulf oil as cheap gas

The news of the discovery of a vast new oil deposit in the Gulf of Mexico should send into ecstasies SUV owners, speculators and other believers in the inexhaustibility of fossil fuels.

According to a Sept. 5 CBS News report, analysts calculate an estimated daily yield of 70,000 barrels per day from this bountiful wellspring of greenhouse gases (not expected to be available, however, for another five years). "Think of it this way," they gush. "This is enough to drive your car 55 million miles."

Brosnan, others object to natural gas terminal

Pierce Brosnan and other celebrities protested plans to build a liquefied natural gas terminal off the coast of Southern California.
The Cabrillo Port Liquefied Natural Gas facility is being proposed by Australian-based BHP Billiton, one of the world's largest energy companies. The $800 million terminal would be located 14 miles off the coast of Malibu.

Algeria sees oil over $50 but watching US growth

Oil prices are expected to stay above $50 a barrel in coming months, but producers are watching the U.S. economy closely as the possibility of a recession there cannot be ruled out, Algeria's energy minister said on Sunday.

Asked by reporters for his price outlook for coming months, Energy and Mines Minister Chakib Khelil replied: "I think prices will still remain above $50. The indications on the futures market are above $50 for the coming years."

Why the laws of economics don’t work well with oil

IT’S TOUGH attending dinner parties these days. Until recently, all an economist had to cope with were requests for forecasts on house prices — for each of the neighbourhoods represented at the table. Now things are harder. Every guest has his or her own reason for wanting a forecast of oil and petrol prices.

Politicians in America are convinced that the price of petrol will determine which party controls the House of Representatives after the November elections. Republicans profess to see the recent price drop of about 50 cents per gallon reflected in a rise in their poll ratings.

Starve The People, Feed The Beast

High oil prices are much more than just a drain on drivers' pocketbooks or a sign of tough economic times ahead; they could also prove to be a leading indicator of the unraveling of our global civilization.

That may sound unlikely, or melodramatic. But consider this: Now, almost everything we eat can be converted into automotive fuel. And once the price of oil surpassed $60 a barrel last year, the business of transforming wheat, corn, soybeans and sugarcane into fuel for cars instead of food for people became hugely profitable. As crops that have long sustained us are diverted to provide fuel, we may encounter the same fate that brought down great civilizations of the past.

Georgia Republican senator sees global warming's effects

Georgia Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss isn't ready to call himself a global warming alarmist, but a recent trip with Sen. John McCain to Greenland to view melting polar ice has given him a new perspective on the issue.

"You can truly see that there is some melting going on," Chambliss said in an interview with The Associated Press. "When you see it, all of a sudden you say, 'Hey, that issue that we've been talking about off and on over the years, there really is something to it.'"

Wyoming and Montana’s China Connection

Soon, I am venturing into the bottleneck.

Along with a group of prominent residents of Jackson Hole, including Grant Larson, the Republican majority leader in the Wyoming Senate; former U.S. assistant State Department secretary John Turner (who also served as head of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service under President George H.W. Bush), and David Wendt of the Jackson Hole Center for Global Affairs, I am heading to China to be a fly on the wall, to listen to some of the most forerunning discussions about practical approaches to halting climate change.

Peak Oil Preparations:Money And Labor

Almost everything in our modern economy is either made from oil or requires oil for its functioning or its transportation. As the price of oil begins to skyrocket, therefore, so will the price of everything else. The same happened on a smaller scale during the temporary oil crisis of the 1970s and '80s.

The hardest hit will be those with debts: car payments, house mortgages, credit cards, student loans. But everyone will find that a dollar just doesn't "stretch." High prices will be combined with low wages. Even now, the news media are always claiming that the unemployment rate is low, but they fail to mention that so many "employed" people are working at low-paying jobs. It is not easy to get together the required food, clothing, and shelter when one is being paid minimum wage.

"Peak Oil�" or Lots More Oil?

In May 2006 I wrote, "I know about the "Peak Oil" theory that says we either have or are about to reach the point of diminishing returns regarding the world's oil supply, but these recent discoveries suggest there is still plenty of oil to be found." In that commentary I documented nearly a dozen new fields of oil and natural gas discovered since 1995.

So I wasn't surprised when, on September 5, Chevron Corporation announced it had discovered new, huge reserves of oil some five miles below the surface of the Gulf of Mexico. The initial estimates were that these reserves "could boost U.S. oil reserves by 50 percent."

As prices tumble, doomsayers hold fast to prophecy

Peak-oil theorists reject any claims of resurgence in supply, writes SHAWN McCARTHY.

It's been a tough week for peak-oil theorists -- those limits-to-growth doomsayers who argue the world's crude oil supply has begun an inexorable decline that will force prices ever higher.

At an OPEC meeting this week, Abullah Jum'ah, chief executive officer of Saudi Arabia's state-owned Saudi Aramco, directly challenged their theory, saying there is plenty of world oil left to be recovered.

What is Global Warming?

First of all let me explain what global warming is about. Around 1900, the French artist Claude Monet visited London and enjoyed the city enormously. He loved the light coming through the smog and if any of you went to the Monet exhibition last year you would have seen paintings with varieties of smog and lots of variations of light. He must, I think, have worn a handkerchief over his nose or had extremely good lungs because London was not a very pleasant place to be in at that time. It is still a polluted city, much more so than it need be, but a great deal better than in 1900.

INDIA TAKES THE STAGE - PART V

The 800-pound gorilla confronting the U.S. geo-politically, economically, and in terms of hydrocarbon energy is China. As India increasingly takes the stage, that nation becomes strategic in agreements made with her by the neo-cons, China being the ultimate target of American diplomatic maneuvering. While the approach of neo-liberals has been more chaotic, the neo-cons insist on tighter control through domestic population control and the militarization of foreign policy

A Myth-Busting Hydrogeologist Says Groundwater Is Safe And Abundant

Clissold warns that a great many Albertans, even in rural areas, still do not understand several important aspects of groundwater:

* Alberta has never had a documented case where oil and gas drilling led to natural gas contamination of a water well.
* Groundwater is a renewable resource. If water is withdrawn from a reservoir, it cannot become permanently depleted. Instead, that reservoir will recharge over time from the surface when normal rain and snowfalls resume.
* Water injection for enhanced crude oil recovery is not overtaxing Alberta's groundwater reservoirs in the agricultural regions. In fact, further withdrawals could be supported.

Get ready for price rationing, oil guru says

Henry Groppe has been tracking the ups and downs of oil through 60 years, 11 U.S. presidents and five full cycles in the commodity. So he knows what he's talking about when he says that this time, it's different.

"This is the most interesting time I've ever experienced," he said.

The 80-year-old Texan, who has been an independent consultant on oil and gas markets for longer than most of his competitors have been alive, believes we have seen more than just an overheated oil market over the past couple of years. Rather, he argues it's the beginning of a new era for oil -- one of sustained high prices, limited supplies and tough consumer choices.

OPEC cuts 2006 world oil demand growth forecast UPDATE

OPEC trimmed its 2006 world oil demand growth forecast amid sweeping declines in oil prices, saying increasingly efficient use of oil has limited consumption despite economic growth and led to weaker-than-expected oil demand growth in the first half of this year

"World oil demand growth in 2006 has been revised down by 0.1 mln bpd since the last MOMR (OPEC monthly report) to stand at 1.2 mln bpd, as recent data shows weaker-than-expected demand in the first half of the year," the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said in its report for September

Pragmatists and Heretics - Peak Oil and Runaway Global Warming

Bill Henderson ~ There is no more wicked a heresy today than to suggest that the organic growth of our present economy should be interfered with, should be replaced by a much more planned and regulated economy. Is there a fool who would endanger millions of people's lives arguing for the impossible?

Oil Currency: Oil Change

Despite the current slowdown, oil prices have been rising steadily over the past year. Will they continue to climb, stay the same or decrease? We, as consumers of fuel, want to know, given our dependency on oil for heating, electricity generation, manufacturing and industrial needs. We also want to make wise transportation decisions in terms of the best vehicle to buy or lease. As investors, we need to understand the financial implications so that we can position our future investments accordingly. The bad news for consumers and the good news for investors is: Do not expect oil prices to fall significantly in the near future. There are global economic and financial reasons for the oil price frenzy to continue.

White House Wobbles on Warming?

Rumor around Washington has it that the White House is about to change its long-established policy on global warming. It is hard to see why the Bush administration would contemplate such a move, but whatever the reasons, there will be little gain in what is at best a meaningless gesture and at worst an albatross around the economy’s neck.

When Oil Companies Disagree

Five news items headlined the list of topics EV World's editor discussed with ODAC newsletter editor, Doug Low, who is headquartered in Aberdeen, Scotland, in the heart of the British oil and gas industry.

First they discussed comments made by Cambridge Energy Research Associates vice president Robert Esser who called talk of "peak oil" garbage. He and others in the energy industry believe there is plenty of oil yet to be found. An official with Saudi Aramco stated this week that only about 18% of the world's oil reserves have been extracted and that there's 140 years of oil left even at current consumption rates. Low contends that while this may apply to all "carbon" sources including tar sands and shale oil, that the easy to extract and refine liquid crude is becoming harder to find and exploit.

What's in the Sand?

OK so it all sounds interesting... but what's so compelling about it? Afterall, many oil companies have juicy cash flow yields � look no further than Conoco's yield to understand Buffett's interest... why not just buy Conoco or something else if I want to buy an oil company at all? So I see that the company is producing a lot of cash which is what we're looking for � so far so good. What about those assets? The market has a value on CNQ of $25.61 billion = or $2.23 billion per bbl of proven reserve... I wonder why that is? For comparison's sake let's take a look elsewhere:

Ethanol - boon or bust?

South African farmer Hannes Haasbroek flew home from an agriculture conference in the United States six years ago, inspired by the novel and potentially lucrative idea of distilling maize into bioethanol fuel for vehicles.

Haasbroek's friends laughed at him; some called it a crazy idea. But in little more than a year, South Africa's first billion-dollar bioethanol factory will be pumping out 500,000 litres of the liquid fuel every day. Seven more of the enormous factories are planned for sites across the country.

Peak Oil or Peak Price?

Bob Prechter published an Interim Report to his Elliott Wave Theorist on September 13 to alert subscribers to his latest market forecasts. Without giving away that forecast, we can say that he points out that "almost every market peaked in May, and summer bounces to lower highs in most markets ended days or weeks ago. The CRB commodity index is down 15 percent. Gold and silver are in free-fall. The Dollar Index has begun to edge higher, and foreign currencies are weakening. Oil is down 19 percent from its July high, making our 16-page special issue on oil in July's Theorist look pretty good."

Now, about that July Theorist – it focused on whether the debate on oil should be labeled "Peak Oil" or "Peak Price." Bob included 22 charts and many illustrations from other publications to explain why he believes that it's the price of oil that has peaked rather than the commodity itself. Here's an excerpt about the economic factor in oil pricing from that Theorist, which was based on a speech he gave to the Kenos Circle Oil Seminar in Vienna in March 2006.

Oil shortage a myth - petrol chief

THE world has an abundant supply of oil, and high petrol prices are just the reality of a globally traded commodity, ExxonMobil Australia chairman Mark Nolan says.
Mr Nolan used his speech to the Asia Pacific oil and gas conference in Adelaide today to debunk the theory of peak oil, which suggests oil supplies have peaked and will dwindle over the next 20 years.

Such predictions, he said, had been around since the 1920s, particularly at times of high oil prices.

Same old future?

Futurologists fall into a trap, says Ecover concept manager Peter Malaise, when their thinking follows well-worn lines. The future needs to be done differently.

The dawning of the post-oil era feels less like a fresh awakening than a sobering-up process, with a growing awareness of the vastness and complexity of the problems it brings. There�s going to be some pain involved. No, don�t stop reading. This is not another doomsday column. It�s a journey into the imagination, trying to understand what is coming and how we can get a handle on some basic solutions. For whosoever has no imagination is forced to flee into reality, and our current reality won�t help us any more.

Canadian Natural Resources places big bet on gas

Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. is paying $4.1-billion (U.S.) for Anadarko Petroleum Corp.'s assets in Canada, the most expensive deal in the firm's history and a major bet on natural gas, a commodity whose price has slumped severely this year.

The deal, funded fully by debt, is the fifth biggest ever in the Canadian oil patch and brings Canadian Natural 69,000 barrels of daily production, most of it gas, adding to its estimated 2006 daily average output of 578,000 barrels, roughly half oil and half gas.

Oil Price Slide Justified But Upside Risks Remain

The recent fall in oil prices is fundamentally justified but, although further losses are possible, there remain upside risks from geopolitical factors and a return of seasonal demand, analysts and traders said.

A further fall to $60 a barrel hasn't been ruled out but a slide much below this level will likely incur intervention from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and to find support from speculative buyers wary of disruption to supply from the key producing regions, they added.

Climate change is biggest global threat, say Britons

Almost half of all Britons see climate change as the biggest threat to the world - more than terrorism or war - according to the latest opinion poll results.

Almost 70% of all poll respondents said they have 'personal experience' of climate change.

Study clears Sun of climate change

The Sun's energy output has barely varied over the past 1000 years, according to a study that weakens claims that climate change is due to natural sunspot cycles.

An international team of researchers found that the Sun's brightness varies by only 0.07% over 11-year sunspot cycles, far too little to account for the rise in temperatures since the Industrial Revolution.

"Our results imply that over the past century climate change due to human influences must far outweigh the effects of changes in the Sun's brightness," says Australian born Dr Tom Wigley of the US National Center for Atmospheric Research.

Warming expert: Only decade left to act in time

A leading U.S. climate researcher says the world has a 10-year window of opportunity to take decisive action on global warming and avert catastrophe.

NASA scientist James Hansen, widely considered the doyen of American climate researchers, said governments must adopt an alternative scenario to keep carbon dioxide emission growth in check and limit the increase in global temperatures to 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit).

“I think we have a very brief window of opportunity to deal with climate change ... no longer than a decade, at the most,” Hansen said Wednesday at the Climate Change Research Conference in California’s state capital.

Global warming threatens increasingly arid Spain

Madrid - Rising seas will devour Spain's beaches, so tourists will no longer come. Crops will wither under massive droughts.

Wildfires will ravage the country, floods will wreak havoc, and tropical diseases will cross over from Africa.

Such forecasts no longer sound like science-fiction. The signs of global warming are already to be seen in Spain, and experts are urging the authorities to re-orientate their policies before it is too late.

EU fears Dependence on Natural Gas from Russia

The visit by Russian President Vladimir Putin to Athens last Monday stirred international interest in the decision regarding the Burgas-Alexandroupolis oil pipeline and the natural gas pipeline linking Turkey and Italy via Greece.

On the issue of the oil pipeline, the US, said to have once opposed the project, welcomed it, saying that it would be good for competition and consumers. “The United States supports the development of alternative oil and gas sources and of a free market-based system that boosts competition among suppliers,” a State Department spokesman said.

Saudi challenges accepted wisdom of 'peak oil' production limit

The world has tapped only 18 percent of the world supply of crude oil, a leading Saudi oil executive said Wednesday, challenging the widely accepted notion that supplies are running out.

Abdallah S. Jum’ah, president and CEO of the state-owned Saudi Arabian Oil Co., known better as Aramco, said the world has the potential of 4.5 trillion barrels in reserves — enough to power the world at current levels of consumption for another 140 years.

Jum’ah challenged oil ministers and petroleum executives at an OPEC conference in Vienna to step up exploration “and leave the minimum amount of oil in the ground.”

The Peak Oil Crisis: Hyping Jack No. 2

The story broke the morning after Labor Day, when the Wall Street Journal ran a front-page piece reporting that Chevron along with two partners had announced the results of a major oil production test in the Gulf of Mexico. The partners Chevron, Statoil, and Devon Energy ran the test on a well known as Jack No. 2 that was drilled last year in the Lower Tertiary zone of the Gulf of Mexico. This zone is about 80 miles wide, 300 miles long and is located about 175 miles off shore. The well was unusual in that it went to a depth of 28,000 feet and the drilling began under 7,000 feet of water.
Released details of the test noted that a number of technical breakthroughs had been achieved. By using the latest technology, Chevron was able to discern and drill into promising geological structures that had previously been hidden below a layer of sound-absorbing silt. The test, which achieved flow rates of 6,000 barrels per day (b/d), established that oil could be extracted at acceptable rates from very deep deposits. It also set several records for extracting oil under conditions of extreme pressures and temperatures.

We can lessen dependence on oil

You may have heard by now about Wilson College's upcoming Richard Alsina Fulton Conference on Sustainability, dubbed "Life After Cheap Oil: Sustainable Solutions to Global Crises." One of the key themes of the conference, which will be Friday and Saturday, is "Peak Oil." This term may not be familiar to everyone, so here's a quick explanation.

According to one popular online reference, Peak Oil refers to "a singular event in history: the peak of the entire planet's oil production." Some experts believe this peak has already occurred; some predict that it will come between 2005 and 2025. In the U.S., oil production actually peaked in the 1970s. Prior to that time our country actually exported petroleum!

We are not "running out of oil" per se, but the remaining oil will become harder and more expensive to extract. Meanwhile, worldwide demand for oil is growing, as surging economies in nations such as China and India expand their own use of petroleum products. Simple economics tells us that when supply is tight and demand is high, prices rise.

It’s said that oil’s well that ends well, but these oil wells may be less than they appear

Newspapers across the country heralded the Sept. 5 announcement of a major new oil discovery in the Gulf of Mexico. And well we should — a promised 50 percent increase in proven U.S. reserves is something to crow about, isn’t it? Well, maybe.

EnergyBulletin.net, a non-profit consortium focusing on “peak oil,” urges caution. Its Web site acknowledges, “On the issue of resource depletion we will unapologetically be favouring geological pessimism over economic theory based optimism.”

Energy Bulletin contributor Randy Kirk, a senior financial analyst with the Larkspur, California-based Private Wealth Partners, LLC, “a wealth management firm serving affluent individuals,” most likely won’t be investing his clients’ money in the venture. He cautions against optimism on several fronts.

Bill Clinton’s Reading List: Richard Heinberg

This week's New Yorker has a lengthy profile of Bill Clinton by David Remnick. The article is not available online but this Q&A with Remnick is. Check out what Clinton was reading around the time of the World Cup this summer:

[Clinton's] taste in fiction, although I don’t think it’s limited to this, seems to be of a lower brow: he loves thrillers and police novels and stuff like that. I borrowed a book from him that he had just read—“The
Party’s Over: Oil, War, and the Fate of Industrial Societies,” by Richard Heinberg, not exactly summer reading—and it was full of underlinings and what looked like the most serious undergraduate’s markings, with lots of exclamation points.

What do you want to bet that neither this book nor Heinberg's two most recent ones, Power Down and The Oil Depletion Protocol have made it onto George W. Bush's reading list yet?