Securing future energy will be difficult but doable

Lou Grinzo is the grass roots, where change in America always begins.

A technical writer with a degree in economics, Grinzo has worked for IBM and Microsoft Corp.

Since the 1973 oil crisis, he's been, in his words, an "energy geek" — fascinated by the relationship between energy supplies and economics.

The Headline that Did Not Happen and the One that Did

In a world of no excess capacity in oil production and with a true equilibrium between supply and demand, headlines have had the day. Volatility should be expected in a margin business where one half of one percent of over or under supply, real or speculated, has caused even in more “normal” times a $5 to $10 swing in the price. Witness the oil price collapse of 1999 because of the Asian flu or the persistent $70 plus prices because of the ongoing Middle East wars.

But in just a couple of recent weeks, a headline that did not happen and a headline that did pushed the price of crude oil down from a high of over $75 to $60, a 20 percent reduction and a five-month low.

BOSTON WORLD OIL CONFERENCE

I have to thank all of the FTW subscribers who introduced themselves to me at the ASPO-USA Conference in Boston. Your messages of goodwill ranged from thanking me for my reporting to wishing Mike Ruppert well. Some told me that Mike Ruppert has changed their lives. I cannot thank all of you enough for the support; we desperately need all we can get.

As I told many at the conference, Mike is ill. He has stones in both kidneys, a cataract developing in one of his eyes, hypoglycemia, calcification of an enlarged prostate gland, dangerously low blood pressure and heavy blood toxicity from both known and as yet unknown sources. More medical tests are needed. That is the bad news. The good news is that a Cuban doctor in Caracas, Venezuela, is treating him free of charge. Please send your prayers to Mike as he and FTW enter the most difficult and dark time we have ever faced.

China Makes Friends in the Gulf

Quietly adroit diplomatic moves shore up China’s energy needs

As the United States has stumbled from crisis to crisis in the Middle East earning a reputation for war mongering and callousness, China has quietly but rapidly been widening and extending its links, becoming a new player and substantially upgrading economic ties, especially in the Persian Gulf.

For a country relatively new to the nuances of global diplomacy, China has adroitly sought to avoid antagonizing the United States while using diplomacy and trade ties to create interdependence. In effect China has presented itself as an alternative, benign power with global reach.

Chronicles of war, from an antiwar artist

At the start of World War II, a U.S. Marine Corps general argued that artists as well as correspondents should be allowed to cover combat: "This is a people's war. The people need to know, and have a right to know, what is going on," he said. Observers had not yet been embedded.

"Try to omit nothing," urged the chairman of the War Department's Art Advisory Committee.

Sanctions against Iran will be �ineffective�: Rowhani

On Monday, former chief nuclear negotiator Hassan Rowhani warned the West about a likely UN resolution against Iran over its nuclear program.

The envoys from the United States, Britain, France and Germany at the UN have drawn up a draft resolution introducing specific sanctions on Iran. However, Russia and China have opposed the text.

Iran reports more progress on uranium enrichment

Iran has started to feed gas into a second cascade of centrifuges, an Iranian news agency reported Friday, a step that indicates that the country is moving ahead with its uranium-enrichment program despite the threat of UN sanctions.

The report that Iran had injected gas into a second cascade of centrifuges came from ISNA, a government-affiliated news agency that often carries official statements. The agency quoted an official, who was not identified in the report, as saying that the second cascade was installed two weeks ago and that inoculations of gas were made last week.

Gold hits 1-mth high, boosted by weak dollar

Gold rose to its highest level in more than a month on Monday, boosted by a weaker dollar after news of unexpectedly soft economic growth data from the United States, analysts said.

Spot gold was quoted up at $603.10/$604.10 an ounce by 1217 GMT compared with $598.20/$599.70 an ounce late in New York on Friday. Earlier on Monday it hit a session peak of $606, the highest since September 28.

U.S. gross domestic product grew at an annualised 1.6 percent in the third quarter, the lowest rate since the first quarter of 2003, compared with a consensus forecast of 2.2 percent and 2.6 percent in the second quarter.

INTERVIEW: Jim Rogers: Commodities Boom In Early Stage

For someone of maturing years, veteran investment guru Jim Rogers is in pretty good shape.

And in better shape still is his commodities basket, the Rogers International Commodity Index, which at of the end of September was up over 230% since its 1998 inception.

During a workout at the gym of his London hotel that would put a man half his age to shame, Rogers told Dow Jones Newswires that the media and investor focus on commodities is nothing compared to what's coming.

Global warming to see 20% dip in economy

GLOBAL warming could eventually shrink the world economy by 20% if action is not taken now, a new report has warned.

The 700-page report was prepared by top economist Nicholas Stern on the request of British Chancellor Gordon Brown.

The review into the economics of an imbalance of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is described as the most comprehensive of its kind.

Available Now From Transition Culture - Energy Descent Pathways

I am delighted to be able to finally make available copies of the dissertation I have been working on over the last 7 months, which is called ‘Energy Descent Pathways: Evaluating potential responses to Peak Oil‘. It is, I think, quite a ground-breaking piece of work, looking at peak oil but also beyond it, which Richard Heinberg has described it as “an extremely valuable resource for community leaders and other policy makers, all of whom must make the energy transition their first priority in the years ahead”.

OPEC may seek new step if oil stocks rise: Iran

A senior Iranian oil official said on Sunday OPEC would need to consider a new step if a recently agreed production cut did not stem the rise in world crude stocks, according to the Oil Ministry’s official Web site.

Javad Yarjani, head of OPEC affairs at the Oil Ministry, was also quoted as saying that the third quarter of 2007 could see a strong rise in oil supply from non-OPEC states, putting pressure on demand for OPEC crude.

Joel Kotkin: Twilight's last gleaming?

America is rife with predictions of impending economic, moral, social and ecological apocalypse. It's not for the first time: Virtually every generation of Americans has concocted its own scenario for the Republic's final meltdown. Most of the time, declinists and doomsayers have ranged from tiny to significant minorities.

On this particular go-round, however, Americans in far larger numbers have turned negative about the direction of the country – barely a quarter of the population now thinks we're headed in the right direction. To an extent not seen since the early 1990s, Americans are increasingly pessimistic about almost everything. According to a July NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, nearly two-thirds, for example, don't think life will be better for their children.

Global warming will cost world $9 trillion: report

The world's biggest economic evaluation of climate change says if countries do not act now the world will face a depression worse than that of the 1930s.

The report puts the global cost of global warming and its effects at $A9 trillion - a bill greater than the combined cost of the two world wars and the Great Depression. It represents a fifth of the global economy.

Skeptics say biofuels gold rush will crumble

Ethanol production is surging as plants sprout up across the Midwest, spurred on by federal money and regulations and a biotech industry eager for expansion.

According to those in the industry, the surge -- coupled with future innovations -- represents a potential long-term economic boom for rural America.

The Oil Crisis Started 30 Years Ago

It is customary to look for the critical year of oil production in absolute terms, but in the year 1970 or thereabouts there was another important "conjunction," to use an astrological metaphor. Global production will peak at some point in the early 21st century; it may have already done so, although the mendacious accounts of remaining reserves make exact dates impossible to determine precisely. Nevertheless, in many senses it is not 2005 or 2010 that is the critical date, but rather the early 1970s.

Iraq, China to revive Saddam-era oil deal as Baghdad seeks investment

China and Iraq are reviving a 1997 deal worth US$1.2 billion (€850 million) signed by Beijing and Saddam Hussein's government to develop an Iraqi oil field, Baghdad's oil minister said Saturday.

Officials will meet next month to renegotiate the agreement over the al-Ahdab field, said Iraqi Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani. He was wrapping up a three-nation tour to secure investment to revive his country's oil industry.

Oil prices rise as UAE confirms output cut

Oil prices rose this week after a report showing a drop in US inventories and a confirmation from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) that it will follow Saudi Arabia and cut output next month. However, the cost of a barrel of oil has fallen 20 per cent since hitting a peak of $78 in July-06. The dollar fell the most against the yen in more than five weeks and declined versus the euro after a government report showed US economic growth slowed in the third quarter. Gold rose this week capping the third straight weekly gain. Gold is up 15.9 per cent this year.

World demand for natural gas to exceed oil by 2020: report

The world demand for natural gas would increase in the coming decades and exceed the demand for oil by 4.4 percent yearly until 2020, a report issued by Kuwait- based Global Investment House said on Saturday.

The report also predicted that the proportion of world natural gas to total global energy would rise to 28 percent in 2030 from 2005's 23.5 percent.

Have oil supplies peaked globally?

It looks as if the ongoing tug-of-war between the oil bulls and bears is heating up.

That provides the big question as to whether global oil supplies have peaked, or if there are additional reserves hidden away in the Earth's recesses that have only begun to be tapped.

This debate has lately been engaged in by such leading energy experts as geology pundit Daniel Yergin, who professes oil supplies to be available well past the end of this century. On the other hand, hedge fund proprietor T. Boone Pickens, a hands-on oil patch veteran, claims that the 2-to-1 ratio of depletion over new reserves, since 1970, is bringing an ultimate shortage crisis to a head.

Giant’s quest for power

When writing about the oil and gas sector in the Middle East, one name stands out above all others — Saudi Aramco.

The national oil company for Saudi Arabia, Aramco is a giant firm, responsible for virtually all the Kingdom’s hydrocarbon enterprise — which means it controls a quarter of the world’s oil reserves.

Vandalism and smuggling a drain on Iraq oil sector

Industry experts believe the bitter sectarian rivalry will make it difficult to pass a law on distributing Iraq's oil wealth - one of the key steps in a timeline for restoring production to prewar levels and shoring up the shaky Baghdad government.

But even if Iraq's politicians do better than expected, two other problems the industry is facing have shown no sign of abating: widespread attacks on pipelines and oil smuggling.

US: Iran uranium enrichment “full steam ahead”

The United States deplored on Tuesday Iran’s race to enrich uranium and confirmed the presence of a second set of centrifuges in the Islamic republic to do the work, a spokesman said on Tuesday.

An International Atomic Energy Agency document from August 31 ”mentioned an installation of a second 164-centrifuge cascade was proceeding, and it was unclear at that point whether or not it was up and running,” State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said.

Planning for the long term

An interview I recently did has been published in the newsletter of Caisse des Depots, a state-owned financial institution that performs public-interest missions on behalf of the French government. Also quoted in the interview is Patrick Criqui, Director of the Energy and Environmental Policy Department of the Grenoble LEPII. You can get the full newsletter here (PDF). It's all about the problems posed by the long timescale climate change operates on, and is definitely worth reading.

U.S. oil reserve suffers from poor management

Federal officials should get serious about maximizing the potential benefits of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve and saving tax dollars at the same time.

By striving to purchase oil when the price is low, the U.S. Department of Energy could have saved taxpayers almost $600 million over the past five years, according to a General Accounting Office report released this month by Sens. Susan Collins, R-Maine, and Carl Levin, D-Mich.

An interesting clip from India

The chaotic traffic from some city in India. Amazing....enjoy...

Navies brace for Qaeda oil attacks

Coalition naval forces are helping to guard vital oil installations in top exporter Saudi Arabia as part of heightened security following an Al-Qaeda threat last month, naval sources said yesterday. In their sights are the kingdom's Ras Tanura terminal, the world's biggest offshore oil export facility, and Bahrain's Bapco refinery. "Acting on information received, Coalition naval forces, operating in support of Saudi and Bahraini forces have deployed units to counter a possible maritime threat to the oil facilities at Ras Tanura," Britain's Royal Navy in Dubai said in a statement.

Groping in the dark

A whole new kind of problem confronts peace-minded progressives in these still-early but disturbing years of the new century. The damages wrought by worldwide corporations, particularly those at the vanguard of the globalized manufacturing and energy industries, have never been more damning: the terrible toll of greenhouse gas emissions and their threat to our future existence is among the most documented and certain scientific phenomenon of all time, and yet some of these companies seek to muddy the waters so they may earn a few more dollars for shareholders while precious last chances to change our collective trajectory are squandered.

Protesters disrupt energy guru's speech

Protesters burst into the George Sherman Union's Metcalf Hall yesterday afternoon, interrupting a speech by Cape Wind President Jim Gordon outlining his company's proposed project in Nantucket Sound, part of an international energy conference that began today at Boston University.

About 30 protesters, carrying homemade signs and shouting, "No power plant in Chelsea," denounced a proposal by Gordon's company, Energy Management, Inc., to build a diesel-burning power plant in Chelsea. Police officers and conference organizers escorted the protesters out of the GSU.

Politics: Imperial Sunset

The coming of peak oil is driven by geological factors, not political ones, but the cascade of consequences that will follow the peaking and decline of world petroleum production can’t be understood outside the context of politics, on global, local, and personal scales. As a religious leader who believes devoutly in the separation of church and state, it’s been my practice to keep politics out of these commentaries, in the probably vain hope that other clergypersons will notice one of these days that the barrier between religion and politics is there as much to protect them from politicians as it is to keep them from abusing their own positions.

Iran Nuclear: Bush

Bush says Iran headed for more isolation if it expands nuke program
WHITE HOUSE (AP) _ President Bush says a report that Iran is expanding its nuclear program shows the Tehran regime is headed for further isolation.

Ahmadinejad's divine inspiration

Amid a struggle between two major clerical factions for control of Iran's influential Assembly of Experts, President Mahmud Ahmadinejad is trying to shore up his conservative base by portraying himself as a man with a direct link to God.

The president, who enjoys close ties to the country's security services, has generally feeble support among the clergy system in the Islamic Republic. He is a strong supporter of Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, one of the most radical clerics in Iran, who believes in an "Islamic government" - where the ruler is chosen by
God, through representatives such as Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei - rather than the current Islamic Republic, where people vote for their leaders according to Islamic laws.

Why OPEC's decision has yet to make a difference

More than a week after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said it's cutting members' oil production in a move to ease supply levels, prices for crude have barely budged.
Traders had hoped an output cut would remedy the steep drop in prices, which had fallen around 10% from the $66-a-barrel level they stood at when the cartel met on Sept. 11 and left its production quota unchanged.
At best, the latest cut to output has merely helped stabilize prices.

Exxon Mobil:Already seeing evidence of OPEC cuts in market

Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) is seeing evidence in the market of the production cuts agreed to by OPEC members last week, a company executive said Thursday.

"We do see (it) on a production side," ExxonMobil spokesman Henry Hubble said during a telephone call with investors and analysts. "You do see things in supply. As crude is being cut back we are seeing changes in mix, generally it comes out of heavy grades so we see some of that."

Venezuela says OPEC should cut additional 300,000 barrels a day at December meeting

Venezuela is recommending that OPEC cut oil production by an additional 300,000 barrels a day when it meets in December, Venezuela's oil minister said Thursday.

Speculators buy up drought-hit wheat crops to earn their daily bread

First oil and natural gas - then copper, nickel and zinc. Now the surge in commodity prices has reached the wide open plains.

Corn and wheat prices have risen by up to 60% this year. Many grain traders, together with new investors in the so-called soft commodities, believe that a structural shift is under way. They point to burgeoning demand from China and India, increasing interest in biofuels and a new breed of speculative investor wading into the market and chasing prices higher.

More Science Teachers Grasping Reality of Peak Oil

Just two or three years ago, if you had asked a science teacher about "peak oil," chances are he or she would have drawn a blank. But if the recent gathering of 3,000 science educators in San Francisco is any indication, a massive shift in awareness has taken place -- thanks in no small part to activists such as Richard Katz and Dennis Brumm.

Last week, these two San Francisco residents were busy working the floor of the California Science Education Conference, talking to teachers about peak oil -- the idea that global petroleum flows will soon crest and decline. They also passed out copies of The Oil Age, a richly detailed poster depicting the rise and fall of mankind's most valuable energy resource.

Ethanol Could Corrode Pumps, Testers Say

The farm-produced fuel that is supposed to help wean America from its oil addiction is under scrutiny for its potentially corrosive qualities.

E85, a blend of 85 percent corn-based ethanol and 15 percent gasoline, could be eating away at metal and plastic parts in pumps being used to dispense the fuel at gasoline stations, Underwriters Laboratories, the private product-safety testing group, said this month.

A Reason to be Proud

Every day now more and more Americans are waking up to the realization of a fact that many of us were aware of, that most of the rest of the world was aware of, as far back as early 2003 - the fact that sending our military into Iraq would be a disastrous mistake, that it would cut a wound so deep and so wide throughout the Muslim world, decades would pass before healing would ever be possible. But the deed was done, and the consequences are now shaping up to be even worse than those of us who opposed the war had anticipated. Death, suffering, poverty, disease, and conflict are going to plague the Iraqi people for many years to come. And yet those responsible don't seem to be overly concerned about the destruction they've wrought. Is this possibly because their priorities, carved in stone some twenty or thirty years ago, have always been about control of the region's resources and never about the welfare of it's inhabitants. Motivated not so much by greed as by fear really, are they trying desperately to stave off an impending approach of the peak oil phenomenon? Is it their hope to grab up as much of the world's remaining fossil fuels as they can so that, when the wells begin to dry up, we Americans, along with those we call allies, will be assured an extra degree of comfort while the rest of the world scrambles about for diminishing supplies of heat, electricity, water, and food? If so, then what a proud day it is for all of us in whose name this is being done.

World oil production may have peaked-executive

World production of crude oil may have already peaked, setting the stage for declining output that could lag demand, a top advocate of the "peak oil" theory said on Thursday.

Matthew Simmons, chairman of Simmons & Co. International, a Houston-based investment banking firm specializing in the energy sector, said U.S. government data showed that the world oil supply has declined through the first half of this year.

''China's Policy in the Gulf Region: From Neglect to Necessity''

hina is a relatively new player in the Middle East and in the Persian Gulf in particular. Whereas Egypt was the first Arab country to establish diplomatic relations with China, it was not until 1990 that Beijing had established ties with all of the littoral states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (G.C.C.).

The G.C.C. consists of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Bahrain and Qatar. Throughout the Cold War, China regarded the Persian Gulf states as geographically remote since this was a time when Beijing was focused on consolidating its position in Northeast and Southeast Asia. Partly explaining China's neglect, Beijing did not pay serious attention to energy security in general and oil security in particular until 1993 when it became a net oil importing country.

The reality of water consumption

I don't think there's anyone who identifies him- or herself as a water-waster. For the most part, people try to keep their tooth-brushing short, their dishwashing brief and the number of times they flush the toilet to a few times per day. Not much else one can do to reduce consumption, right?

Well, not quite. It's not what you use, but what you eat or buy. According to Fred Pearce, author of "When the Rivers Run Dry," it takes anywhere from 250 to 650 gallons of water to grow one pound of rice. I eat that much rice in a week. A pound of wheat? About 130 gallons. Two pounds of coffee? 2,650 gallons. A pound of cheese? About 650 gallons. But in terms of daily numbers, how much do you consume?

As wells dry up, Mexico could be forced to privatize oil

Even as popular pressure grows around Latin America for a stronger state hand in developing natural resources such as oil and gas, Mexico's president-elect Felipe Calderón may be forced to consider putting more power in private hands.

The country's flagship oil company Pemex, has been a point of pride since the industry was wrenched from foreign hands and nationalized in 1938. Its revenues alone cover one-third of Mexico's budget.

Indian Govt To Use Oil Reserves To Stabilize Prices

The Government of India proposes to use its upcoming strategic crude oil reserves to stabilize oil prices. This move was also aimed at checking the instability in the fortunes of public sector oil marketing companies.

The oil marketing companies suffered heavy under-recoveries on the sale of petrol and diesel with the rise in global crude oil prices, as the retail fuel prices are under government's control. During Apr-Sept 2006 alone, gross under-recoveries are pegged at Rs. 33,143 crores, compared to Rs. 40,000 crores in the whole of 2005-06.

US natural gas prices to rise lin ong term

Analysts at Capital One Southcoast expect the natural gas prices to rise further going into 2007.

Ahmadinejad's Divine Inspiration

Amid a struggle between two major clerical factions for control of Iran's influential Assembly of Experts, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is trying to shore up his conservative base by portraying himself as a man with a direct link to god.

The president, who enjoys close ties to the country's security services, has generally feeble support among the clergy system in the Islamic Republic. He is a strong supporter of Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, one of the most radical clerics in Iran, who believes in an "Islamic Government" -- where the ruler is chosen by god, through representatives like Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei -- rather than the current Islamic Republic, where people vote for their leaders according to Islamic laws.

Venezuela says OPEC should cut extra 300,000 barrels per day at Dec. meeting

Venezuela Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez said Thursday that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries should cut an additional 300,000 barrels a day of crude output at its next meeting in Nigeria this December to help keep OPEC's average oil price at $55 a barrel or higher.

"At the next meeting we have to implement an additional cut," Ramirez told reporters at an oil event. When asked what the total amount of the cut should be, he said the cartel should cut an additional 300,000 barrels on top of a 1.2 million barrel a day cut that the group agreed upon at its most recent meeting in Doha.

Mr. Market, manic-depressive: Is there a cure?

Benjamin Graham, the father of value investing, loved to relate the story of Mr. Market, a partner in a going concern. On some days he would arrive jubilant, ready to take the entire business off the hands of his fellow partners at a rather exorbitant price. Other days he would arrive depressed beyond belief, ready to sell them his portion of the company for a pittance. Graham advised his clients to pay little heed to Mr. Market and form their own opinions based on the facts. Only then should they decide whether Mr. Market's offer was worth taking.

Nothing to fear from a Bigfoot

It seems that by the year 2050, the human race is going to be a planet short of its resource needs. I know this is true because I heard it yesterday morning on the CBC news. I was still reeling from the previous night's revelation on The National that the Canadian Prairies are -- due to global warming -- heading for a massive drought. But what is mere drought compared with a missing planet?

US Occupation of Iraq: A Reason to be Proud!

Every day now more and more Americans are waking up to the realization of a fact that many of us were aware of, that most of the rest of the world was aware of, as far back as early 2003 - the fact that sending our military into Iraq would be a disastrous mistake, that it would cut a wound so deep and so wide throughout the Muslim world, decades would pass before healing would ever be possible.

But the deed was done, and the consequences are now shaping up to be even worse than those of us who opposed the war had anticipated.

Oil, Nuclear Power, and Iran: A Lesson in Opportunity Cost

Good article. When you consider peak oil it is even stronger because Iran's supply of oil is past peak. As oil production declines Iran will want to sell more – at higher prices as it becomes scarcer on the world market – and use less domestically. Eventually it will stop exporting because its domestic needs will come first. So nuclear power is a good long-term idea to prolong revenue from exporting oil.

Cheaper to buy than find

Pity the poor oil companies. A daily news alert from the Wall Street Journal, while providing teasers to three not particularly interesting articles on the international news business, did let slip an interesting observation. Third quarter profits for Big Oil are still looking good, but after that, "it's clear they are now being squeezed between falling crude prices and rising oil-field costs, raising doubts about the continuation of the big run-up in profits at companies like Exxon Mobil Corp., Royal Dutch Shell PLC and BP PLC."

The Path Beyond Petroleum: Twelve Theses

"Escape for thy life; look not behind thee, neither stay thou in all the plain; escape to the mountain, lest thou be consumed." (Gen. 19:17)


1. Oil production in the year 2025 will be half that of the year 2000. If we combine those figures with those of world population, we find a ratio of 5 barrels of oil per person per year in 2000, but only 2 barrels of oil per person per year in 2025.

Is Attacking Iran a Viable Option?

I have written several articles on the Iran crisis pitting two expanding and important strategic alliances against each other and the similarities to the powder keg of Baltic and European alliances that erupted into World War I.

On one side is the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Led by China and Russia, the SCO has four other permanent member states: Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. Along with a senior official from India's oil and gas industry, the prime ministers of Pakistan, Mongolia, Afghanistan and Iran attended the last meeting in Shanghai on June 15. It was the first meeting since Iran announced that it had successfully enriched Uranium: Iran was invited to become a full member.

Oil prices climb more than $2 a barrel

Crude oil prices rose more than $2 a barrel Wednesday after a report showed U.S. inventories dropped last week, OPEC members began taking steps to cut production and Nigerian villagers attacked oil facilities.

Though global supplies are still relatively ample and some skepticism remains about OPEC's willingness to go through with the 1.2 million barrel-a-day reduction it announced late last week, Wednesday's news drove traders to bet on tightening supplies going into the winter, when fuel demand ramps up.

Are we facing Peak Uranium?

One of MoneyWeek’s favourite yellow metals has had an extremely exciting week so far.

We’re not, for once, talking about gold, but that other precious yellow metal - uranium.

Uranium has been in a long-term bull market for quite some time - but a flood at industry giant Cameco‘s Cigar Lake mine has sent share prices at its rivals soaring, and looks set to have a similar effect on uranium prices when the index is next compiled (it only updates twice a week, as uranium is not traded on the open market).

Crude Oil Inventories Fall Again

With crude oil imports down sharply, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) fell by 3.3 million barrels compared to the previous week. At 332.3 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories remain well above the upper end of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories dropped by 2.8 million barrels last week, and are just above the upper end of the average range.

Ethanomics 101

No one can begrudge corn farmers their share of euphoria over the recent ethanol boom.

Until very recently, their plight could be summed up by a bit of gallows humor I once heard from a dairy farmer: "I lose money on every gallon, so I try to make up for it on volume."

Global Warming Fungus 'Wiping Out Frogs'

A type of fungus spread by global warming is wiping out frogs, according to scientists.

It infects amphibians' skin and is believed to cause disease by interfering with their ability to absorb water.

British and Spanish researchers have found compelling links between the changing temperature in Spain and the emergence of a chytrid fungus called BD (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) in the area.

Is man-made global warming a myth?

The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season was devastating by anyone's account. According to the National Weather Service, a record-breaking 31 named storms formed during the season. Fifteen of those storms developed into hurricanes, two of which-Katrina and Rita-wreaked havoc on the Gulf Coast.

The 2006 season, however, has not nearly lived up to its hype. Despite the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's projection of a season of above average hurricane frequency and intensity, thus far only nine named storms have formed with five of them developing into hurricanes. Only one hurricane managed to make landfall, Category 1 Hurricane Ernesto.

Finite oil supply poses policy challenges, forum told

The global economy faces an unprecedented situation: a sharp depletion in its main energy source.

Speaking yesterday at the Reserve Bank conference on macroeconomic policy challenges, Jeremy Wakeford of the University of Cape Town School of Economics said that oil was a finite resource. He said experts had predicted that global supplies of oil, which makes up half of the world's total energy resources, would peak between 2005 and 2016.

Living Planet Report: Humanity Overdrawn on Nature's Credit

Earth's resources are being used faster than they can be replaced, according to a new report, which claims humanity's impact on the planet has more than tripled since 1961.

"Living Planet Report 2006," released today by the global conservation group WWF and the Global Footprint Network, says that by 2050 humanity will demand twice as much as the planet can supply.

�Humanity is living off its ecological credit card,� said Dr. Mathis Wackernagel, executive director of Global Footprint Network, an Oakland, California group working internationally to make ecological limits central to decision making.

US sends the wrong messages to Iran

The US media are inundated with reports that the recent United Nations resolution imposing sanctions on North Korea is meant as a "lesson" for Iran, and the United States' ambassador to the UN, John Bolton, has warned Tehran that it could face similar "international isolation" if it follows Pyongyang's path toward nuclear proliferation.

Thus a Wall Street Journal editorial titled "The arms-control illusion" glosses over any distinctions between Iran and North

Iran testing devices for nuclear enrichment

Iran has launched a second batch of centrifuges at its pilot nuclear fuel plant despite possible UN Security Council sanctions, diplomats said.

Tehran fired up the new cascade of 164 interconnected centrifuges, which can enrich uranium for either power plant or nuclear bomb fuel, earlier this month to go with an initial network of 164, they said.

Israel: Iran poses the greatest threat

With the nuclear focus turned on North Korea, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert yesterday warned that Iran poses the greatest threat. He called on the world to prevent Iran getting nuclear weapons, and said its threats to destroy Israel should not be taken lightly.

"We have to prepare for the struggle to prevent this capability being attained," Olmert said. "This struggle is not just Israel�s, it is not first and foremost Israel's."

Oil Gains as Cool U.S. Weather, OPEC Cuts Stoke Supply Concern

Crude oil rose on speculation frigid weather in the U.S. may erode heating-oil inventories before the winter season and as OPEC vowed to rein in production.

A blast of Arctic air has kept temperatures lower than normal east of the Mississippi River for the past week and forecasters predict cold weather in the Northeast will linger through Nov. 7. The cold snap, which comes several weeks before the normal start of the winter heating season, could tax supplies of heating oil and other oil-derived fuels.

New fuels depleting food supply, critic says

The grain needed to fill the tank of a typical SUV could feed a person for a year, a leading international environmentalist says.

Lester Brown, executive-director of the Washington-based Earth Policy Institute, says a global rush to alternative fuels made from food crops is likely to increase hunger in the poorest countries.

"What has happened in the last few years is that the runaway price of oil has made the conversion of agricultural commodities into fuel for cars extraordinarily profitable," he told a conference at the University of Ottawa.

Climate change 'will threaten Britain's water supply'

Britain's water supplies, health, ecosystem, planning system and tourist industry are likely to be severely hit by climate change, a government report has warned.

Publication of the results of a £400,000 government research project coincided with a warning delivered in Germany by the Foreign Secretary, Margaret Beckett, that climate change could bring down unstable Third World governments and create the largest refugee problem the world has ever seen.

Peak Oil Passnotes: Oil Market Fractures

As if we did not need it explaining, here is a personal story from this columnist about the vagaries of the oil market. A number crunching analyst was talking near me this week at my place of work saying “how incredibly clever some people were.”

This cruncher often exclaims at the top of his voice, as if some kind of major market fracture has taken place, sitting at his computer going “oh my God!” Normally it transpires that the crack spread between Dubai and Brent has moved 2 cents in the direction he did not expect. Everyone else smiles nicely – he is a senior fellow – and gets on with their work.

Energy depletion & the US descent into fascism

In October of 2001, a little over a month after 9/11, I wrote an article titled The Background is Oil. The hypothesis laid out in this article was that the 2000 US presidential election resulted in a coup of neocons and oil interests who had taken control of the US in order to prepare for the coming peak and decline of world oil production. Furthermore, this coup engineered the 9/11 terrorist attacks to further their own interests.

Before 9/11, the coup was hampered by lack of support from both the public and Congress. The tragedies of September 11 washed all resistance away in a flood of rabid patriotism. As a result, the coup was able to hijack the US political process. Over the coming years, starting with the USAPATRIOT Act, the coup has been able to strip us of our constitutional rights, in preparation for the civil unrest which will come from the peak and decline of oil production and the resulting economic collapse.

Answer to Energy Crisis? Waste Not, Want Not

Soaring worldwide demand for energy is driving climate-altering greenhouse gas emissions dangerously higher, and even as investments grow in new "clean" energy sources, existing technologies to reduce energy use are being neglected.

Energy remains crucial to economic development in a world where over 1.6 billion people have no access to electricity. While the media and government focus has been on greener and cleaner ways to generate power through renewable sources like biofuels, wind, solar and hydrogen, experts say that major improvements in energy efficiency could dramatically reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, save money and provide the breathing space needed to improve and develop new energy sources.

Peak Oil: Sell oil stocks?

A few months ago we posed the question "Does Peak Oil Matter?" In other words, has global oil production actually peaked? And if so, how should investors respond?

- We posed this question in the context of the fact that North America oil shale holds billions of barrels of "theoretically" recoverable oil. Theoretically, therefore, global oil production may not have peaked.

‘Windfall tax’ call on oil companies as profits announced

New research reveals UK missing opportunity to use ‘never-to-be-repeated’ fossil fuel income to invest in clean energy transition.

As BP and Shell are set to reveal yet more carbon-intensive profits, new research published today, Monday 23 October, reveals the paradox of the UK Treasury hooked on income from the oil and gas sector, yet missing a never-to-be-repeated opportunity to invest in the transition to a sustainable energy system. The research calls on the government to follow the broad example set by Norway, which established what is in-effect an ‘Oil Legacy Fund.’

Speaking with the enemy

Since coming to power, the US administration of President George W Bush has largely shunned diplomacy with those it perceives as enemies. Ensconced in a moral certitude that is belied by its attachment to any number of allies of ill repute, the administration has sat in the corner holding its breath, hoping that those who oppose its stated goals - foreign monsters such as Syria, Iran and North Korea - will simply vanish if they cannot be forcibly removed.

Energy Geopolitics: Putin Gets Mugged in Finland

Most people won’t pay any attention to this week’s energy summit in Lahti, Finland, but they should. It is particularly instructive for anyone who is interested in the latest developments in the global resource war.

The purpose of the meeting was to work out the nettlesome issues of energy policy, but the hidden agenda was to pressure Russian President Putin into signing away the control of his country’s critical assets to the big-players in the world energy cartel. The proposed "Energy Charter Treaty" is designed to tie up Russia’s resources through legal obligations which serve the overall interests of the energy giants. The treaty is no different than the EU Constitution which was voted down last year when the "informed" European public realized that it was just another boondoggle set up by big business to override national sovereignty, environmental safety, and civil liberties. The Energy Charter Treaty and the EU Constitution focus on the very same objectives, that is, establishing the legal framework for placing the world and its dwindling resources in the hands of a small cadre of obscenely-wealthy western plutocrats.

Forget oil, look at food prices

Oil has been such an economic bogeyman in recent times, hogging the headlines, that not noticed is as severe a threat -- food inflation.

Food staple maize has been trading internationally at record highs, driven by the world's move to energy diversification to produce bio-fuels as an alternative to fossil fuels.

Liberalization Strategy For Iraq's Oil-Hostage Economy: Alternative To Oil Power Dominance And Neo-Liberal Subordinate Economic Policy (Part 2/2)

It is indisputable that maximization of crude oil production is required in the short and medium term as oil revenues are essential for financing public expenditures and imports10. This policy is also in line with the interests of both the oil consumer and OPEC countries, regardless of the pricing factors of oil exports in global markets. But while the macroeconomic policy and oil production should be consistent in order to rationalize the allocation of resources, especially oil revenues, for increasing economic growth as well as providing social services and public utilities, the present monetary policy and especially the FXR have misled economic efforts.

Jim Rogers vs. Stephen Roach in commodities debate

A Forbes article pairs off commodities bull Jim Rogers with Merrill Lynch�s bear Stephen Roach. Here are a few excerpts; click the link above for full text.

Jim Rogers says, �This is a great time to invest in commodities.... Supply of things like base metals, oil and rubber is crimped after years of underinvestment in mines and oilfields and farms, he says, so prices are heading up. And they will go up, with some transitory hiccups, well into the next decade and perhaps even the one following. Copper, zinc and oil have all at least doubled in the past three years. You'll see more doublings in many more commodities.�

Global Warming May Be Mother of All Finance Woes: John F. Wasik

Global warming is challenging celebrity worship as the latest obsession in worldwide media. Magazines from Newsweek to Scientific American have devoted issues to this threatening phenomenon.

If global warming triggers devastating climate change and disrupts world agriculture, financial markets will also react severely. It will be ``the mother of all market corrections,'' according to David Korten in his book ``The Great Turning.''

Impact of global warming on wheat yield under lens

Warm temperatures stretching well into wheat season resulting in falling wheat productivity in the state has come to be a major cause of worry for the scientists. Keeping this in view, the Department of Biotechnology, the Ministry of Science and Technology and the Government of India has approved research projects worth Rs 8 crores.

As per the detals available of the projects, one of the major components which PAU will be studying via bio-technology, is the impact of warm temperatures on all the three stages that is early, tillering and grain filling, on the wheat crop. Under this project, PAU will also be developing new wheat varieties which can tolerate higher temperatures.

Opec cuts production, US inflationary pressures resurface

Opec decided on Friday to cut production by a greater-than-expected 1.2mn barrels a day. The cut is the first since December 2004. Opec is currently producing about 29.5 million barrels of oil per day. The dollar recoiled this week on speculation the Federal Reserve will keep borrowing costs unchanged at 5.25 per cent for a third month when it meets next week.
US
US inflationary pressures have resurfaced after a higher-than-expected rise in core producer prices. It rose by 0.6 per cent in September-06, topping analysts' predictions of a 0.2 per cent jump. On the other hand, US consumer prices declined in September-06 as energy prices plunged. The consumer price index lessened to 0.5per cent during September-06, the biggest drop since November-05, backed by the decline in energy prices.

Celebrities protest natural gas facility proposed for Malibu

Former James Bond actor Pierce Brosnan and other celebrity residents gathered at Surfrider Beach Sunday to protest a natural gas facility proposed for a site 14 miles ( 22 kilometers) off the coast.

"We have to use our voices and ban together and stop this," said Oscar winner Halle Berry.

The gathering — also attended by Cindy Crawford, Jane Seymour, Dick Van Dyke and Tea Leoni — was intended to raise awareness about how the energy industry has invested billions to liquefy and ship natural gas across oceans.

A Manhattan project to end oil dependency

Similar to the 2004 election, I am in a quandary. I'm frustrated with the present administration, but can't find a ray of hope coming from anyone in the Democratic Party. Other than with my vote, I can't find a compelling reason to support the Democrats with donations or my time to help with a candidate's campaign.

I wanted to share with you an idea that I believe could motivate voters to put the Democratic Party in office throughout the land. I wholeheartedly would support the first candidate that puts forth the concept of a new Energy "Manhattan Project" for the purpose of getting America completely off gasoline. The project should be funded and manned with the same zeal and fervor we used to develop an atom bomb in just three years during WWII. After all, like then, we are at war. But, I can't help feeling we are losing this one.

We may never do ‘right thing’ about oil supply

"Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing ... after they have exhausted all other possibilities." Winston Churchill

WASHINGTON On energy, we're proving Churchill wrong. Our main problem is dependence on imported oil. But it's doubtful we will turn to obvious remedies anytime soon. "Other possibilities" seem inexhaustible.

IEA chief says Opec output cut ill-timed

The timing of Opec’s output cut is very bad as the northern hemisphere heads into the peak demand winter season and the risk remains of supply tightness, the head of the International Energy Agency said yesterday.
“It is probably the worst time to implement a cut,” IEA executive director Claude Mandil said. “We are heading into the heating season. There is still a lot of supply-side risk.”

Mexico will not abide by Opec's decision on cuts

Mexico's crude output has already slowed this year and it will not further decrease its production or exports after Opec members agreed to deep production cuts, Energy Minister Fernando Canales said.

"We will not cut the volume of crude we send abroad further than we have already reduced it," Canales told reporters on Friday.

America: From Freedom to Fascism ( Video )

America: Freedom to Fascism is a compelling and troubling account of how the wealth of our nation was silently passed from its citizens to a handful of powerful bankers in 1913. That's the year the Federal Reserve Act and the 16th Amendment were introduced, giving a privately held corporation the means to control our finances while ensuring its interest payments through the strong arms of the newly-formed Internal Revenue Service. Ever since then, Russo suggests, Americans have been gradually conditioned to accept fewer freedoms and a lower standard of living... all the while considering debt and servitude as distinctly American values.

Russo's first and most cogent point is simple: Americans are not required to pay a federal income tax. That's a bold statement to make, as few people believe that such a fraud could be perpetrated for so long. My father, himself an accountant, insists that the income tax is a very real thing. Russo takes that same belief to IRS employees and simply asks them to cite where it says an unapportioned income tax is required of us all. Guess what? They can't. In a telling segment Sheldon Cohen, former commissioner of the IRS, goes so far as to reject Supreme Court rulings and the Constitution as benchmarks over what is legal with regards to taxation. Russo also interviews members of the tax honesty movement as well as disenfranchised IRS agents who agree that no law on the books conjures up a requirement to send the government part of one's hard-earned paycheck. Russo then showcases court cases where those accused of tax evasion have won precisely because the prosecution cannot provide evidence of a legal federal income tax law.

It's shocking to have it hammered into your head over and over that you've thrown your money away for nothing, but repetition is good; it helps knock loose the deeply entrenched belief that we owe a portion of our livelihood to our government.

Oil Shock's notes: A must see video, it is 1 Hour and 49 Minutes long. Buy the video and support the movement. Which is what I just did.

Investment ideas discussions on energy (mp3)

Alternative Energy - an investment opportunity waiting for a catalyst
A Few Big Ideas - an update
Contrary Thinking
Emails and Q-Calls
Other Voices: Zapata George

Richard Heinberg Interview ( mp3 )

The Oil Depletion Protocol: A Plan to Avert Oil Wars, Terrorism and Economic Collapse

The Post Carbon Church

As we've been talking about, the era of affordable automobile use and all its amenities is about to end – including the Commuter Church and Ringtone Christianity. The era of cheap oil, it seems, is rapidly coming to a close, and we're now entering an age of Less.

Everything will relocalize as our easy-motoring way of life persistently constricts after Peak Oil, including how we do church. Just as motorization fundamentally altered how we get to work, get our food, and get our entertainment, it has also changed church. As outlined in my last post, I believe this has done more bad than good. Whether my criticisms are correct is of little importance, though. The bigger question for the faithful is, how will a church thus conformed respond to Peak Oil? What will the Post-Carbon Church look like?

Where is the Leadership In Energy Policy?

Americans like Canada, as well we should. Our neighbors to the north, and for that matter to the south, are the number one and two suppliers of the oil we import. We use 40 percent of that imported oil towards our transportation to power our gas guzzling cars and trucks.

But why are our cars and trucks so gas needy? The fuel efficiency standards have not been raised for passenger cars since 1985. That's 21 years! What happened? Currently the Bush administration wants to change the method of calculating energy efficacy, by weight, thereby allowing the auto industry to manipulate the standards and lessening their stringency.

Separation Of Oil And State

As gas prices continue to decline, it’s only natural to wonder about the apparent coincidence between this trend and Republican interests in the election. Indeed, a recent poll found that 42 percent of Americans believe that gas prices have been “deliberately manipulated” in advance of the election. Countless articles have been written on blogs and in the mainstream press speculating on the possibility of a gas price conspiracy, either supporting the supposition or shooting it down.

The trouble with conspiracies is that they're wickedly difficult to prove, particularly without a smoking gun. There may be a conspiracy, or there may not be. However, there doesn’t have to be a specific conspiracy on gas prices in the run-up to the election—there just has to be a collective recognition of self-interest among the Bush administration, oil industry executives, investment fund managers and oil traders.

Oil deflating but not bursting

Oil prices have fallen around $20 per barrel in the past two months on the back of receding supply risks. This has raised concerns the oil bubble is about to burst for the Gulf econ-omies. However, a soft landing for oil prices is more likely.

An important feature of oil markets in the second and third quarters was the amount of speculative long positions. In this backdrop, the passing of the hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico with little incident meant such large net long positions fell under their own weight, explaining the sharp decline in oil prices.

A Down Market's Ripple Effect

Exactly three months ago, as oil prices touched $78.40 a barrel, people wondered where the ceiling was. Investment dollars flowed into a raft of alternative energy projects, and famous oilman T. Boone Pickens talked about $100-a-barrel crude oil and $4-a-gallon gasoline.

Since then, oil prices have dropped 25 percent, to $58.57 a barrel, leaving people to speculate about where the price floor is. OPEC ministers are fretting, some hedge funds are losing billions of dollars on bad market bets, and Pickens now mumbles about $70-a-barrel crude oil. Others are talking about half that price.

Israeli army chief says Israel cannot ignore threat of a nuclear Iran

Israel cannot ignore the threat of a nuclear Iran, Israel's army chief said Friday, the latest indication that Israel is stepping up its anti-Tehran rhetoric.

Lt. Gen. Dan Halutz spoke a day after Prime Minister Ehud Olmert warned Tehran it would have a "price to pay" if it refused to back down from its nuclear ambitions — the strongest words used by an Israeli leader about the Iranian threat.

Bush's Petro-Cartel Almost Has Iraq's Oil, Part II

With 140,000 U.S. troops on the ground, the largest U.S. embassy in the world sequestered in Baghdad's fortified "Green Zone" and an economy designed by a consulting firm in McLean, Va., post-invasion Iraq was well on its way to becoming a bonanza for foreign investors.

But Big Oil had its sights set on a specific arrangement -- the lucrative production sharing agreements that lock in multinationals' control for long terms and are virtually unheard of in countries as rich in easily accessible oil as Iraq.

OPEC Now Addicted to High Oil Prices?

Yesterday saw the OPEC cartel of oil producers decide to cut its output by 1.2 million barrels a day, seemingly in an effort to prevent oil prices falling further. Further cuts were also hinted at, and it may be that OPEC has chosen $60 a barrel as the lowest price that it is now comfortable receiving for its oil.

This is approximately double the price that prevailed only a few years ago, but times have changed, and OPEC�s members have become very attached to the revenue that today�s oil prices bring. It is not hard to see why.

Pork or Ethanol: Which will Win?

Concerns about high corn prices due to ethanol production’s ravaging appetite for corn is becoming a reality. In the next year, two impacts can be expected.

First, that hog market weights will drop, which is positive for hog prices, but not so for packer efficiencies.

“The pork industry will likely have growing concerns about the heavily subsidized ethanol industry,” notes Chris Hurt, Purdue University agricultural economist. “Those concerns are internal and external.”

Latest global warming study predicts ’wild ride’ of droughts, heavy rain

The world - especially the Western United States, the Mediterranean region and Brazil - will likely suffer more extended droughts, heavy rainfalls and longer heat waves over the next century because of global warming, a new study forecasts.
But the prediction of a future of nasty extreme weather also includes fewer freezes and a longer growing season.
In a preview of a major international multiyear report on climate change that comes out next year, a study out of the National Center for Atmospheric Research details what nine of the world’s top computer models predict for the lurching of climate at its most extreme.

WaMu profit down 9 percent

Washington Mutual Inc. (NYSE:WM - News), the largest U.S. savings and loan, on Wednesday reported a lower-than-expected profit, blaming part of the 9 percent drop on lower home mortgage demand and costs for the elimination of nearly 5,200 jobs.

Net income for the Seattle-based thrift declined to $748 million, or 77 cents per share, from $821 million, or 92 cents, a year earlier. Results included charges of 3 cents per share from the sale of mortgage servicing rights to Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE:WFC - News) and 4 cents per share from a cost-cutting program.

Why markets need to take Peak Oil seriously

Against the background of everything else happening in the financial markets is the apparent circumstance of peak oil. Even The New York Times joined the chorus in a Sunday editorial, saying:

"Our demand for petroleum products strains the limits of the global capacity to supply them. In past decades, if a pipeline broke in Nigeria, Saudi Arabia might compensate by setting workers to pumping more oil. Now, with little additional capacity, rising prices are necessary to balance out supply and demand."

OPEC agrees to production cut

OPEC agreed Friday to curb its output by 1.2 million barrels per day, its first cut for more than two years, to halt a precipitous fall in prices.

The reduction, 4.3 percent of OPEC's September production, was deeper than anticipated and the biggest since January 2002. It trims OPEC output to 26.3 million bpd from Nov. 1.

"The credibility of OPEC is at stake," Algerian Energy and Mines Minister Chakib Khelil told Reuters before the meeting that began Thursday and ended in the early hours of Friday.

Iran won't back down 'an inch' from nuclear plans

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Thursday that Iran will not back down "an inch" from its nuclear programme, and launched another attack on Israel, calling it a fraudulent regime that cannot survive.

"The world must know that the Iranian people will not back down even an inch on its rights to peaceful nuclear energy," Ahmadinejad said in a speech in Islamshahr, south-west of the capital.

Mexican state oil monopoly says crude production edged higher in September, natural gas output at record

Mexican state oil monopoly Petroleos Mexicanos said Thursday its crude production edged higher in September from August, while natural gas output rose to a record level.

Data posted on the company's Web site showed crude production last month at 3.26 million barrels a day, compared with 3.25 million in August and 3.37 million in September 2005.

Pemex's crude exports fell to 1.68 million barrels per day in September from 1.78 million in August, but were unchanged from September 2005.

NATURAL GAS UPTICK: ENERGY PIGS AT WORK

THE energy thieves are at it again.

Wall Street speculators and hedge funds apparently didn't learn their lesson when they jammed the price of oil up to record levels this past summer only to get their heads bashed in when crude fell more than $20 a barrel.

Now they are trying to do the same thing with natural gas. So, grab a baseball bat or a nine iron, it's time to go head bashing again.

Climate change to cause more extreme weather

Climate change will cause extreme weather to be a more common occurrence according to new computer modeling by researchers from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Texas Tech University, and Australia's Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre.

Unlike previous studies which looked at how average temperature or rainfall might change due to climbing levels of greenhouse gases, the new study, which will appear in the December issue of the journal Climatic Change, examined how weather extremes could change.

Canadian Natural Gas May Rise as Cold May Limit Supply Gain

Canadian natural-gas prices may rise on speculation that cold weather in the Midwest limited the amount of the heating fuel added to storage in the U.S. last week.

Utilities and other big gas users probably added 48 billion cubic feet of gas to storage last week, the median estimate from 21 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. U.S. gas inventories rose 75 billion cubic feet in the same week last year even as output was reduced by hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico. The Energy Department releases its weekly report on gas in storage at 10:30 a.m. today in Washington.

Brazilian Ethanol Demand to Double by 2015, JOB Economia Says

Brazil, the world's biggest ethanol producer, will probably consume twice as much of the alternative fuel within a decade, according to JOB Economia, a Sao Paulo- based consultant to the industry.

Ethanol consumption in Brazil will rise to 32.7 million metric tons in 2015, from 13.5 million tons in 2005, Julio Borges, a director at JOB Economia, will tell delegates to the Sugaronline World Sugar & Ethanol Conference in Geneva today, according to an advance copy of his speech. Ethanol is derived from sugar cane.

Hydrocarbon Aesthetics

Though I could hardly call myself a professional violinist these days, I still get the occasional call for a wedding or other special function, and I cherish these increasingly rare opportunities to work alongside competent players. This past April I was hired to play in a string quartet to provide the requisite “musical wallpaper” for the opening of a traveling exhibit (“International Arts and Crafts: From William Morris to Frank Lloyd Wright”) at the de Young Museum in San Francisco. As a tip to the musicians, the Museum offered us each a pair of tickets to the exhibit. Since my wife Janet and I have long been fascinated by the Arts and Crafts movement, we made use of those tickets a few weeks later.

Pickens predicts rising oil prices

Texas oilman and Oklahoma native Boone Pickens is predicting oil prices will soon be rising again.

The price of a barrel of oil has fallen below 59 dollars but Pickens says he believes the price will be 70-dollars per barrel before it's 50-dollars a barrel again. And he believes gasoline will be more than four-dollars per gallon _ possibly by next summer.

Pickens was in Oklahoma City for an appearance at the Oklahoma Economic Club.

An Oil Habit America Cannot Break

On energy, we're disproving even this cynical axiom. Our main energy problem is our huge dependence on imported oil.

For years, some remedies have been obvious: Tax oil heavily to spur Americans to buy more fuel-efficient vehicles and to drive a bit less, raise sharply the government's fuel economy standards so those vehicles are available, and allow more oil and gas drilling. In recent years, we've done none of these things. It's doubtful we will anytime soon. "Other possibilities" seem inexhaustible.

Book Review: "Twilight in the Desert"

In Twilight in the Desert, Matthew Simmons has written a pivotal and accessible work confronting the complacent notion that there is an inexhaustible supply of oil to be readily tapped when needed. Simmons has searched through hundreds of obscure SPE documents (Society of Petroleum Engineers) and found the paper trail that suggests the Saudi Oil Miracle may be entering its senescence, taking with it the capacity to produce more oil on demand.

The importance of Saudi oil cannot be disputed. The Saudis claim petroleum reserves of 262.7 billion barrels. In the Middle East, Iran reserves run a distant second at 130.7 billion barrels, and Bahrain has 0.7 billion barrels. There are 726.6 billion barrels under the sands of the Middle East, representing 63.3% of the world reserves. The Saudis have 22.9% of world reserves.

U.S. can't afford to pull out of Iraq

Iraq's bloody civil war worsened today, when 10,000 heavily armed troops from the Shiite state of Shiastan pushed north from Najaf and Rumaythah. The attack threatened to trap three battalions of U.S.-backed Sunnis in the region.

The latest round of fighting has triggered a new wave of refugees into Kuwait and Jordan, the United Nations reported today. Millions of Iraqis have fled the country since American troops pulled out in 2006, a controversial withdrawal that al-Qaida celebrates as a watershed victory.

Opec supplies set to decline despite surge in demand

Opec supplies are projected to decline by nearly 200,000 barrels per day this year but will likely rebound by about half a million bpd next year, according to official US forecasts.

Statistics by the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) show that supplies by the 11-nation oil exporting group will decline despite a projected growth of nearly 1.2 million bpd in global demand as a large part of the increase will be met by non-Opec producers.

Iran Warns Against U.N. Nuke Sanctions

Iran warned on Wednesday that a likely U.N. Security Council resolution for imposing sanctions against Tehran would wreck any possibility for a compromise to resolve the standoff over the country's disputed nuclear program.

France has said a sanctions resolution will likely be circulated at the council by the end of this week. Support for sanctions is growing among leading members after weeks of talks between the European Union and Iran failed to persuade Tehran to suspend uranium enrichment and start broader negotiations over its nuclear ambitions.

Israeli Prime Minister Urges Russia to Act Against Iran

Israel's Prime Minister has urged Russia to join ranks against Iran's nuclear program.

Speaking in Moscow after talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said the entire international community should unite to block what he called Iran's intention to build nuclear weapons.

Mr. Olmert said he is confident that Mr. Putin understands Israel's concerns.

God, country and global warming

Volatile gas prices, threats to our national security, economic instability and global warming are just some of the challenges we face because of our dependence on oil and other fossil fuels.

People from all walks of life are recognizing these challenges and are pushing our elected officials to act now with visionary leadership and to implement policies that move our nation toward clean, renewable and secure energy resources.

Peak Oil: The Clock Is Ticking

Perhaps the most common response to the peak-oil problem is: "The oil isn't going to disappear overnight. We have a century to prepare." Unfortunately, the fact that the decline in oil is a curve, not a vertical line, makes it difficult to comprehend. What matters is that the serious damage will be done long before we get to those tiny remaining drops a century or so from now. If we look at the forecasts of Petroconsultants Corp., which produces the "bible" of oil data, we can see that in the year 2000 there were five barrels of oil per person per year, but that by 2025 there will only be about two barrels, not five. That's not an "on/off" situation, but at that point the human race should probably wave goodbye to the Oil Economy. The year 2025 is far less than a century from now.

Has “Peak Oil” Peaked Too Soon?

Disaster struck “Peak Oil” cheerleaders this month as Chevron announced the discovery of massive new oil reserves in the deep water of the Gulf of Mexico. “Dang it!” one expert was overheard shouting while being shepherded from MSNBC’s greenroom. “We’ve been predicting the end of oil for a century now, and it finally looked like we were right. Why won’t people just give up looking for a better future so we can all feel prophetic and important for once?”

Conspiracy Theory Abounds Over Gas Prices

For two months now, gas prices have been in freefall, plunging 81 cents a gallon since August and giving the president some rare good news.

Gas prices started going down, CBS News correspondent Anthony Mason reports, just as the fall campaign began to heat up. Coincidence? Some drivers don’t think so.

"And I think its basically a ploy to sort of get the American people to think: 'Well, the economy is going good, let's vote Republican,’” says one man pumping his gas.

THE TRUTH ABOUT HYDROGEN

WHEN ASSESSING THE State of the Union in 2003, President Bush declared it was time to take a crucial step toward protecting our environment. He announced a $1.2 billion initiative to begin developing a national hydrogen infrastructure: a coast-to-coast network of facilities that would produce and distribute the hydrogen for powering hundreds of millions of fuel cell vehicles. Backed by a national commitment, he said, "our scientists and engineers will overcome obstacles to taking these cars from laboratory to showroom, so that the first car driven by a child born today could be powered by hydrogen, and pollution-free." With two years to go on the first, $720 million phase of the plan, PM asks that perennial question of every automotive journey: Are we almost there?

Liberalization Strategy For Iraq's Oil-Hostage Economy: Alternative To Oil Power Dominance And Neo-Liberal Subordinate Economic Policy

The Politics And Economics Of Oil Policy

In normal circumstances, federalism and decentralization of the political decision-making processes in Iraq would substantially increase people-participation and improve democratic practices. Encouraging foreign investment would also help to attract new technology and improve the efficiency of the national economy and competitiveness of domestic industries. The intended hydrocarbons resources law to regulate the production and investment in the extraction, manufacturing, and distribution of crude oil and natural gas is important to revive the promising oil industry. However, neither federalism nor the “new” investment and hydrocarbon laws will be viable without the prior establishment of a unified long-term economic strategy where oil wealth constitutes a strategic factor. Indeed, efficient utilization of oil revenues guided by suitable economic strategy and policies would not only improve living standards but equally important reduce sectarian conflict and encourage political stability. If the self-interest demands of the federal government(s) in oil wealth remain without national economic criteria for its utilization, Iraq’s disintegration as a single-sovereign state may become a reality.

EU switching from diplomacy to sanctions on Iran

EU foreign ministers are set to agree to UN sanctions on Iran over its nuclear programme, in a move that keeps the doors open for future talks but comes as a disappointment after months of EU-led negotiations to broker a more amicable solution to the dispute.

"Iran's continuation of enrichment-related activities has left the EU no choice, but to support [UN] consultations on such measures," said a draft EU statement to be agreed at today's (17 October) ministerial meeting in Luxembourg, according to AP.

Major Problems Of Surviving Peak Oil

"If liberty means anything at all, it means the right to tell people what they do not want to hear." -
George Orwell

Rob Hopkins says in ‘Why the Survivalists Have Got It Wrong’ that he has very little time for the survivalist response to peak oil, and refers to ‘Preparing for a Crash: Nuts and Bolts’ by Zachary Nowak.

Rob may well be partially right but he, like Zachary Nowak and many other ‘community’ minded people tend to miss or are just in denial with the true reality of what the effects of Peak Oil will really mean.

Nymex Natural Gas Surges on Forecasts for Cold in Northern U.S.

Natural gas rose the most since July in New York as forecasters predicted cooler weather in the Midwest will lift consumption of the furnace fuel.

Demand for heat will top normal by 18 percent over the next seven days in the northern Midwest, according to researcher Weather Derivatives in Belton, Missouri. Cool temperatures this time of year cause residences and businesses to turn on furnaces left idle since last winter.

My Luddite Fantasy

According to polls conducted by Democracy Corps, a strategy group run by James Carville and Stan Greenberg, Americans view dependence on foreign oil as the number one national security priority. Given the current news obsession with Foley, this is both welcome and surprising. The current wisdom on both sides of the Democratic/Republican divide is that voters fixate on moral questions, getting red or blue in the face over issues like gay marriage, leaving politicians free to serve their corporate task-masters.

Lulled by cheap gas, candidates ignore looming energy crisis

This summer, people could hardly talk about anything besides energy.

But with the election only three weeks away, candidates hardly mention it. They're much more interested in the scandal around former Florida congressman Mark Foley, when and how to leave Iraq, the outlook for the economy and nukes in North Korea and Iran.

You can hardly blame the candidates. Energy now ranks somewhere below gay marriage as an issue for voters, according to recent polls.

Water and oil don’t mix

Fears that the massive Ghawar oil field in Saudi Arabia may have passed its prime have been the stuff of speculation for many years. Ghawar has underpinned Saudi Arabia’s dominance of the oil market ever since it came on stream in 1951. With its ability to pump out some five million barrels per day on average, more than half of Saudi Aramco’s total of 9.1 million barrels per day, the slow death of Ghawar may help to ensure that the low oil prices of the 1980s are but a dream for the average consumer.

OPEC cuts 2006 world oil demand growth forecast by 100,000 bpd

Oil cartel OPEC has cuts its 2006 world oil demand growth forecast by 100,000 bpd amid sweeping declines in oil prices since July, saying a slowing global economy is weighing on demand.

'In light of preliminary data for the first three quarters of 2006, world oil demand growth was revised down by 0.1 mln bpd for 2006 from the last monthly oil market report,' the cartel said.

Hurricanes aren’t the real threat for an oil crisis…

As the saga of Katrina and Rita continues on the Gulf Coast, it appears that the panic at the gas pump may be beginning to subside. Right before Rita knocked Texas and Louisiana around for a second time, prices in Asheville had dropped a good thirty cents. The prices to us still seemed outrageous, but at least they were dropping. I would expect the same trend to continue soon.

But there is a potentially greater problem that could be coming to a pump near you, and it wouldn’t come in the form of a hurricane. Instead, it would come in the form of two words that have unfortunately become all to familiar to Americans: Al Qaeda. It appears that the terrorists are scheming again, plotting to slap Americans in their wallets this time instead of destroying their landmarks.

Amar-what? Hedgies go long on gas again

Just weeks after the fallout from Amaranth's loss of more than $6 billion on natural gas, hedge funds and prominent investors like Boone Pickens are again betting prices will rise. With gas prices down almost 75 percent in less than a year, many hedgies smell opportunity.

Citadel Investment Group, which took over trades from Amaranth after its losses last month, is among those jumping in. From Bloomberg:

"Strong Ally in the Middle East": Why the US must break up Iraq

The leadership of the United States describes victory as an Iraq that is a "strong ally in the Middle East" defeat is described as a situation where extremists govern "a new terrorist state in the heart of the Middle East with large oil reserves that could be used to fund its radical ambitions". But if Iraq is to be democratic, there is a big problem. No population in the Middle East will, given the choice, elect leaders who are US allies in the war against terror. No Middle East population will keep extremists out of power if they fairly choose their own leaders.

Deadly Silence On The Middle East

Dr. James J. Zogby is founder and president of the Arab American Institute.

In not a single House or Senate race being contested this year will the candidates engage in a serious debate about the failed U.S. policy in the Middle East. There are a number of races where the Iraq war is an issue, but in these instances the debate has more to do with how we got into the war, the mistakes we’ve made and how we should leave. There are, to be sure, supporters of the president’s vision (or fantasy) of the Iraq War, i.e. that we are producing a democracy that will transform the region. But in no case is there a serious discussion about Iraq itself or the consequences of our broader Middle East policy.

Bush's Petro-Cartel Almost Has Iraq's Oil

Iraq is sitting on a mother lode of some of the lightest, sweetest, most profitable crude oil on earth, and the rules that will determine who will control it and on what terms are about to be set.

The Iraqi government faces a December deadline, imposed by the world's wealthiest countries, to complete its final Oil Law. Industry analysts expect that the result will be a radical departure from the laws governing the country's oil-rich neighbors, giving foreign multinationals a much higher rate of return than with other major oil producers, and locking in their control over what George Bush called Iraq's "patrimony" for decades, regardless of what kind of policies future elected governments might want to pursue.

Death and Resurrection of the US Dollar

Analysts the world over are starting to recognize the early warning signs of a gathering storm regarding the strength of the international financial system in general, and the stability of the United States Dollar, in particular.

This essay provides an alternative view on this impending crisis, written from the viewpoint of an Argentine analyst whose country has undergone recurrent monetary and financial crises over the past forty years, albeit on a domestic rather than an international scale.

Big drop in oil prices unlikely, analysts say

After a downhill sprint to $60 a barrel, oil prices have run into headwinds caused by geopolitics and OPEC, making further steep declines more difficult.

Motorists can expect recent relief at the pump to continue, analysts said, though the nationwide average could very well stay above $2 a gallon for the remainder of the year.

For now, the U.S. economy may have to take what it can get - prices that are high and volatile by historical standards, but not as painful as many feared.

Iran rejects U.N. Security Council sanctions against North Korea

Iran's president said Monday that his country won't be intimidated by U.N. sanctions on North Korea and plans to push ahead with its own nuclear program.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad called it "illegal" for the U.N. Security Council to demand that Iran suspend its uranium enrichment, state-run television reported.

US warns Iran over nuclear plans

US officials have turned their attention from North Korea's nuclear programme to Iran's, warning the Muslim state it must heed the threat of tough sanctions or face the consequences.

The comments came as North Korea accused members of the United Nations Security Council of acting like "gangsters" after a vote to impose sanctions was passed.

China wins more than kudos from beating hunger

The argument by American scholar Lester Brown that China would become a hungry dinosaur, triggering a global food crisis in 2030, appears weak on Monday - the 26th World Food Day - given China has emerged as the world's third largest food donor.

But the alarm bells sounded by his book "Who Will Feed China" in the 1990s should never be silenced.

About 23.65 million Chinese farmers are still hungry, with their daily expenditure lower than one US dollar. Worldwide, the figure is 750 million.

Climate change is real and happening in Australia

AUSTRALIA, the world’s second driest continent after Antarctica, is in the grip of the worst drought in its recorded history. The impact is huge, not only on the farmers forced to sell their sheep for virtually nothing, but also on the nation’s economy and its mood.

In a double whammy for rural people, interest rates are about to go up again, while their incomes go down. This could produce a significant backlash against the conservative government of John Howard at next year’s election.

Global Warming: How History Is Being Manipulated to Undermine Calls for Action

Informed people now understand that global warming is perhaps the most severe challenge facing the well-being of human society in the coming century. Only a dwindling minority of Americans now denies this (an even smaller fraction believe that we are regularly visited by space aliens). But those who deny it include powerful people, whose interests or ideology are threatened by government regulation of the fossil fuels that are the main source of the danger we face.

Global warming may be behind leap in UK infectious diseases

The first deaths from infectious disease attributed to global warming have occurred in Britain, official figures suggest.

Cases of legionnaires' disease, the bacterial lung infection which kills more than one in ten of those it infects, reached record levels in August and September and experts say the extreme summer weather is the most likely cause of the rise.

What Gold Bubble?

I figure Friday the 13th is as good a day as any to take on everyone who insists on calling the price action in gold earlier this year a "bubble." Many commentators on gold believe that when gold hit $720 on May 11, 2006, gold was close to hitting its previous bubble peak of $850 on January 21, 1980. A new gold bubble had come and gone. For anyone who believes that, this Friday the 13th is not your lucky day.

Unholy trinity set to drag us into the abyss

We are about to experience the convergence of three of the great issues confronting humanity. Climate change, the peaking of oil supply and water shortage are coming together in a manner which will profoundly alter our way of life, our institutions and our ability to prosper on this planet. Each is a major issue, but their convergence has received minimal attention.

Population is the main driver. In the 60 years since World War II, the world population has grown at an unprecedented rate, from 2.5 billion to 6.5billion today, with 9 billion forecast by 2050. That growth has triggered insatiable demand for natural resources, notably water, oil and other fossil fuels. Exponential economic growth in a finite world hitting physical limits is not a new idea; we have experienced limits at a local level, but we have either side-stepped them or found short-term solutions, becoming overly confident that any global limits could be similarly circumvented.

Bigger is better as U.S. nears 300,000,000 people

Within a week or so, the Census Bureau will declare that the population of the United States has reached the 300 million mark.

As I write this sentence, the Census Bureau's Population Clock, available at www.census.gov, reads 299,901,023.

It took thousands of years for the population of what's now called the United States to reach 100 million, a milestone achieved in 1915; 52 years, to 1967, to add the next 100 million; and 39 years, to 2006, to add the next 100 million.

DiCaprio joins the Green wing

Hollywood heart-throb turned environmental campaigner Leonardo DiCaprio brings his green gospel to Rome today. DiCaprio will be in Rome to present two short films he has made on ecological issues.

The official reason for the actor's presence in town is to appear at tonight's Italian premiere of Martin Scorsese's The Departed, one of the highlights of the very first Rome Film Festival, which opened this weekend. But DiCaprio will also be appearing this afternoon outside the festival at the Tor della Monaca Theatre to present his short films Global Warning and Water Planet.

Oil: Prices and Producers -- Where They're Headed

ExxonMobil Corp. (XOM), Marathon Oil Corp. (MRO), Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A), Hess Corp. (HES), BP PLC (BP), Total S.A. (TOT), ConocoPhillips (COP), EnCana Corp. (ECA), Suncor Energy Inc. (SU), Nexen Inc. (NXY), Canadian Natural Resource Ltd. (CNQ), Chevron Corp. (CVX)
Summary:Barron's interviews Charley Maxwell, a 50-year veteran of the oil and gas industry, and presents his thoughts on the energy scene. Key points:

* Previous shortages (1973-74, 1979-86, Iraq wars) were man-made; present shortages are due to a true lack of oil. Hubbert's Peak, the theory that says global oil production will peak, will dominate our attitude by 2015-2020.

Ambani eyeing North Sea firms in UK

The Reliance group is eyeing oil companies in the North Sea, and is also planning to acquire an oil drilling and engineering firm to expand the exploration and production business in Africa, South America, the Middle East and India, Sunday Times quoted group chairman Mukesh Ambani as saying.

Ambani believes British companies working in the North Sea will become increasingly vulnerable to takeover bids as reserves dwindle.

Got Gold Report - Gold Bearish Case Weakening

The first good blast of cool Canadian air of fall has even made it down to Texas reminding us all that the traditional annual �gold season� is underway. That is whether or not gold �realizes� it yet. So far it�s off to a slow start and gold metal still seems to be drifting in the waning momentum of a liquidity exodus vacuum of sorts. However, the season is young, and the coming months should be opportunity rich if history is any guide and the fundamentals driving the Great Gold Bull reassert themselves. It is this report�s conviction that they almost certainly will.

Short-term rumor-motivated fearful investors apparently continued to offload to long-term confident investors over the past two weeks, with the market at least attempting to prove up a bottom into the teeth of the rumours.

Bombers kill women teachers in blitz on Iraq oil hub

Insurgent car bombers blitzed the Iraqi oil city of Kirkuk on Sunday, killing 11 people and wounding 62 in five brutal attacks, including one on a school training young women teachers.

Brigadier General Adel Ibrahim of the Kirkuk police said three of the blasts were triggered by suicide car bombers, one was a booby-trapped car and another a makeshift bomb planted in a residential neighbourhood.

OPEC to meet in Qatar Thursday on cut in output

Qatar's Energy Minister Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah said an extraordinary meeting of OPEC will be held in Doha on Thursday to discuss a cut in production to check the fall in the price of crude oil.

Iran OPEC cut would be 140,000 bpd if group cuts

If the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries agrees to cut production by 1 million barrels a day, Iran's share would be 140,000 b/d, a senior Iranian Oil Ministry official said earlier this week.

"Should OPEC members arrive at a consensus on a 1 million b/d cut in the production ceiling, Iran's oil production will also drop by about 140,000 b/d," said Javad Yarjani, director of the OPEC department at the Iranian Oil Ministry.

US Urges Iran To Learn From UN Action On North Korea

The Bush administration is urging Iran to learn a lesson from the U.N.'s quick response to North Korea's nuclear-test claim.

2002, President Bush referred to Iraq, Iran and North Korea as an "axis of evil." But while he relied on military force to oust Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, who was suspected of seeking weapons of mass destruction, Mr. Bush is continuing to focus heavily on diplomacy to deal with Iran and North Korea's nuclear ambitions.

Climate change inaction will cost trillions -study

Failing to fight global warming now will cost trillions of dollars by the end of the century even without counting biodiversity loss or unpredictable events like the Gulf Stream shutting down, a study said on Friday.

But acting now will avoid some of the massive damage and cost relatively little, said the study commissioned by Friends of the Earth from the Global Development and Environment Institute of Tufts University in the United States.

The truth about global warming and the coming ice age

It is a fact that the globe upon which we live is warming.

". . . An ice age will result from a slow warming and rising of the ocean that is now taking place."

I read this prediction 48 years ago. When a sophomore in college and enrolled in an Expository Writing class, I wrote a research paper, part of which was based upon an article by a freelance writer, Betty Friedan. This was five years before she wrote The Feminine Mystique (1963). Her inquiry, "The Coming Ice Age," was published in Harper's Magazine in September of that year. The article stirred my imagination. Since I expected to live another 100 years, I kept the magazine as a reminder to look into it 50 years later. We're almost there.

Are we guilty of global warming ?

We humans do a lot of damage to the environment, but climate changes are not caused by human activity.

Bush warns: Cheap petrol could 'make us complacent'

The falling price of oil has boosted US consumer confidence, sparked a Wall Street rally and and rescued US President George W Bush's approval ratings.

But with US petrol prices down about 30 per cent since mid-summer peaks, Bush himself expressed concern Thursday that the falling fuel costs could dull the market forces that contributed to a surge of interest in conservation and alternative energy sources.

Long live the Pentagon

The US military oil consumption is generally regarded to be a small amount compared to the country’s gigantic consumption. Since oil is and will remain a strategic vital commodity, the Pentagon does not have a luxury of turning its back to oil.

Is the US Department of Defense an empire?

Peak Oil Passnotes: Oil Eyes on OPEC

The Brent and Nymex spot crude price has entered a very interesting phase this week. Prices are touching the $57.50 technical barrier we have previously talked about, at the time of writing they are sitting slightly above at $57.79.

There are still some signs that are bullish. Notably the North Korean claim that it has detonated a nuclear bomb. Were North Korea to embark upon any kind of military action, attacked or not, South Korea is the world’s eleventh biggest economy and would undoubtedly take the brunt of the violence. Of course just over the water and within range of North Korea’s non-nuclear missiles is the world’s second biggest economy, Japan.

Venezuela Says OPEC to Cut Production, Raise Crude Price

Venezuela's oil minister has said OPEC countries have reached consensus to cut back crude oil production by one million barrels a day, beginning December first. OPEC says it is currently producing 28 million barrels per day.

Oil and gas rights: the weapons of a new Cold War

In recent weeks, hardliners in the Kremlin have cancelled or renegotiated deals with Western firms in order to pursue Russia's national interests - but their plans may backfire

If there were any doubt about the ruthlessness with which Russia is executing its new nationalist energy policy, it was smashed last week. In an almost cursory announcement, Alexey Miller, chairman of the management committee of the massive Russian energy group Gazprom, told TV channel Russia Today that the state-controlled company would develop the 'supergiant' Shtokman gas field in the Arctic by itself and would not be inviting Western companies to join in.

At a stroke, Miller cut off five hopeful Western oil majors - Conoco and Chevron of the US, Statoil and Norsk Hydro of Norway, and France's Total, from taking a stake in the £10bn project to develop the world's third largest gas field, with 3.2 trillion cubic metres of reserves.

Oil falls to year's low - but why?

OPEC Wednesday agreed to trim global oil production by 1 million barrels a day to boost prices, BP said electrical problems will prevent oil from America's largest field from moving for several more days, and investor Boone Pickens said oil will be above $70 a barrel before the year is out.

Yet light sweet crude for November delivery fell by 93 cents Wednesday to settle at $57.59 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange - oil's lowest price since Dec. 19, 2005.

The Deathwatch for Cheap Oil

THOSE falling prices at the gasoline pump may only be temporary. Indeed, they could signal the start of an era in which, forecasters say, “the death of cheap, abundant crude might unleash war and plunge the world into a second Great Depression.”

“Peak oil is a reality,” says Willem Kadijk, a hedge fund adviser quoted by Bloomberg Markets magazine. He is just one of many who believe that global oil production is now at or near its peak, and the only place to go is down.

“Once the flow crests and starts to decline, and some geologists say it already has, oil will no longer be able to slake the world’s growing thirst for energy,” Deepak Gopinath writes in summarizing the argument. “The result will be the oil shock to end all oil shocks.”

The price of a barrel of crude oil, which closed yesterday at $58.68, “will spiral to $200 — and keep rising,” he writes.


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Oil, Smoke and Mirrors!

Must Watch Video

Black Hills Today was recently informed of this video by MyPeakOil.org. MyPeakOil.org is designed to be interactive center for current information regarding the peak in global energy supply. They publish news and research concerning:
# The current situation and trajectory, such as oil & gas production data, economic or societal clues to decline profiles, and relevant institutional pronouncements.
# Innovations or partial solutions to this crisis, such as renewable energy generation capacity and research, alternative financial systems, or post-carbon urban agriculture.
# Any other issues which assist our understanding of the broader implications of the peak.

Bush Promotes Investment Opportunities in Renewable Energy

Resource Investor was invited to hear first hand President George W. Bush�s speech at the Advancing Renewable Energy Conference in downtown St. Louis today; and underneath the political meandering, we unearthed a few promising investment opportunities, most notably in the constituents that make up ethanol and biodiesel.

Aside from a brief interruption by a protestor screaming: �Out of Iraq now!� the president�s speech was to the point. Matthew Simmons, chairman of Simmons and Company, said earlier in the day that if we don�t look into other sources of energy, we�re dangling ourselves off a cliff. Bush reiterated this sentiment.

Costly oil makes N.S. ports more attractive

MATTHEW SIMMONS is friendly enough but his message isn’t always welcomed, especially by the energy sector.

But from a Nova Scotia point of view, Simmons’s message is a positive because it has the potential of drawing more attention to Nova Scotia as a gateway for goods from Asia to reach North America.

Simmons was in Halifax recently to make a presentation at the 2006 Canadian Offshore Resources Exhibition and Conference. He is probably the best known of the pessimists (or realists, depending on your point of view) who believe the world has already reached peak oil production and there won’t be enough new oil discoveries to replace the fossil fuel that has been consumed.

Mexico's Output Growth Probably Slowed in August

Mexico's industrial output probably grew at its slowest pace in four months in August as U.S. demand for automobiles and other exports waned.

Production rose 5 percent in the month from a year ago after increasing 5.8 percent in July and 6.9 percent in June, according to the median of 10 economists in a Bloomberg survey.

Today's report may be an initial sign that the expansion in Latin America's second-biggest economy is beginning to falter as demand in the U.S., the buyer of 85 percent of Mexico's exports, eases, said Salvador Moreno, chief economist at ING Groep's Mexican unit. The economy expanded 5.1 percent in the first half, up from growth of 3 percent in 2005.

Proposing Plan C

Yellow Springs, Ohio – Participants at the Third U.S. Conference on Peak Oil and Community Solutions learned how they must use less energy, save and share resources and grow food in their communities.

This response to the coming peak and permanent decline of global oil production, dubbed "Plan C: Curtailment, Cooperation, and Community," was a major theme at the conference last month in this small southwestern Ohio town, the epicenter for a growing national movement.

Peak Oil Naysayers Partying On for Growth

When a wealth-oriented person justifies "growth," this attitude seems like it's the only way such an individual can prop up the ego and live a lie. At a former time when taking down a large amount of timber was not so threatening to the Earth, there was more innocence among wealth-seeking, growth-oriented developers. Destruction of wildlife habitat, extinctions, loss of farmland, global warming, depleted aquifers, silted-in dams, rising costs for city dwellers -- the list goes on, but the pro-growthers justify it all. If anyone questions it, they may boast of job creation or cloak themselves in the national flag.

Analysis: Battle looms of Kirkuk, its oil

Oil wealth in -- and historical ties to -- Kirkuk, in northern Iraq, is spurring increased violence in the once peaceful city as the future of it, and the country, is decided.

The Iraqi Parliament Wednesday cleared the way for Iraq to be carved into autonomous regions, which puts Kirkuk in a tug of war that could escalate to a full-scale civil war.

Oil revenue funds 96.3 percent of Iraq's government operations, according to Washington-based analysts PFC Energy, nearly all of which can be found in the north and south, where the Kurds and Shiites are majorities, respectively.

EU 'to end' nuclear talks with Iran

EU foreign ministers are to formally end negotiations with Tehran over Iran's nuclear ambitions at talks in Luxembourg next week because of a "lack of results", a European diplomat has said.

The ministers are due on Tuesday to declare that "negotiations with Iran have terminated because of a lack of results", the diplomat has said on condition of anonymity.

However, a draft of the meeting's conclusions dating from October 11 does not include that sentence.

Statoil to suspend production on Snorre A platform

Statoil ASA has confirmed it is to suspend production from its Snorre A platform in the North Sea for up to a week, after being ordered to do so by the Petroleum Safety Authority of Norway following concerns about the safety of a number of its emergency lifeboats.

The suspension will see the firm's total daily production cut by about 42,000 barrels per day, a spokesman said.

Oil above $58 on U.S. stockdraw but capped by OPEC

Oil prices extended their rebound from a 2006 low on Friday after a surprise fall in U.S. winter fuel stocks, although gains were checked by a big rise in crude inventories and OPEC's dithering over an output cut.

U.S. crude rose 29 cents to $58.15 a barrel as of 0209 GMT, extending a 27-cent gain on Thursday, when prices touched $57.22, their lowest level since December 19, 2005. London Brent crude climbed 24 cents to $59.00.

Ethanol isn't cheap simple solution

Ethanol is a hot topic these days even though the public's interest in alternative fuels fluctuates with prices at the pump. Using Brazil as the poster child for ethanol production, some berate Florida sugar growers and assume they could do the same and produce ethanol as profitably if sugar prices were lower.

Getting into the ethanol business is more complicated than that. Florida's sugarcane farmers have looked seriously at ethanol production, and specifically at Brazil's model. The fact is, regardless of the price of sugar, we cannot grow sugarcane and produce ethanol at current ethanol prices. Brazil can do so at a profit only because they pay third-world wages, dump the effluent out on the land and rivers and have government-subsidized storage and infrastructure.

A world of hurt will follow population explosion

Americans are familiar with China's biggest problems--a population pushing 1.3 billion, an official one-child-per-family policy, deserts that are moving rapidly over its already small arable land mass, and water tables that are falling so dangerously that whole rivers have stopped flowing.

As we idly note these warning signs, perhaps we pause and think, "Aren't we the lucky ones? With all our beautiful open spaces, all our glorious farmland and all of our flowing rivers!" Well, don't pause too long. All of that is changing right before our blinkered eyes, with a booming and uncontrolled population growth.

When all the rivers run dry

FARMERS across the country are watching their crops turn to dust, selling stock they can no longer afford to feed, and heading yet again to the banks to plead their cases as they suffer through what could be Australia's worst drought. Treasurer Peter Costello has warned of a rural recession and Prime Minister John Howard has promised his Government will do all it can to help farmers through this latest "hammer blow", including extending drought assistance.