Infrastructure is real issue affecting oil prices

IN JUST two months this fall, the price of crude oil plummeted from its peak of $77 US per barrel to just $57. Crude has recently rebounded to the $62 range. Were speculators who predicted $100 per barrel oil off track?

The world is awash in crude oil and OPEC is cutting back production. So what happened to the peak-oil theorists who spread doom and gloom about the world running out of oil?

Crude Oil Inventories Decline

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories dropped by 8.1 million barrels compared to the previous week. However, at 321.0 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories remain above the upper end of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories rose by 3.0 million barrels last week, and are just above the lower end of the average range.

Mullahs' nuke linked to looming oil crisis

Iran's nuclear ambitions are motivated not just by a desire for regional supremacy but by a potentially devastating crisis in its oil industry, a US researcher said in a report made public on Monday.

Iran's image is of a muscular oil producer with plentiful reserves, but in fact it could soon face its own energy crunch owing to failing infrastructure and lack of investments, Roger Stern at Johns Hopkins University said.

Five years hence it started, euro going strong

The surging euro is confounding critics who once doubted it could rival the US dollar, British pound and Japanese yen but Europe's shared currency still annoys some consumers five years after its introduction in cash form.

In 2006, it has surged in value, rising nearly 14 per cent to 20-month highs and is about three or four US cents off its all-time high of $1.36 in December 2004. It's a strong turnaround from an initial plunge to as low as 82 US cents in 2000.

Is the global property boom set to end?

Sometimes it seems like everyone owns at least one or maybe even two homes abroad these days. They don’t, of course. Although definitive figures are hard to come by, the true number is probably still much less than a million. Yet it certainly seems that way, especially when you are sitting in the back of a taxi and the driver is telling you proudly about his flat on the Costa del Sol or pondering aloud the relative merits of investing in Bulgaria or Montenegro.

Saddam Hussein's Record Of Infamy Ends

Over more than two decades of authoritarian rule, Saddam Hussein led his nation toward modernity and then to ruin by invading two neighboring countries, attacking his own citizens with chemical munitions and brutally repressing all who opposed him.

He defied United Nations weapons inspectors, presided over the slaughter of hundreds of thousands of Iraqis, pitted his Sunni Muslim Arab minority against the country's majority Shiites and demanded the cultish celebration of his own image.

Saddam: The questions that will live on

So why did George Bush decide to invade Iraq? Nearly four years and hundreds of thousands of casualties later, the reasons appear both as obvious and as elusive as they were in the spring of 2003.


The official reasoning was always straightforward. Key among the claims included in the so-called Iraq War Resolution passed by Congress in October 2002 was that Iraq "poses a continuing threat to the national security of the United States and international peace and security in the Persian Gulf region". It added that Saddam's regime harboured chemical and biological weapons and was seeking to develop a nuclear arsenal.

OPEC strategy seeks to maintain $60 barrel price

OPEC has called for a rare heads of state summit to be held in Riyadh later in 2007. It will be only the third such meeting since the cartel was formed in 1960. Observers see the move as indicating a much more prominent role for Saudi Arabia and OPEC in future international energy discussions.

2006: Year of chaos and transition

The year coming to an end was one of intensified conflict in the Mideast that led to a political rebuke at home for George W. Bush's handling of the increasingly bloody mayhem in Iraq. As the war neared its four-year mark, Bush was leaning towards sending still more troops.

Is Tehran the New Baghdad?

The U.N. Security Council has passed resolution 1737 (2006) imposing sanctions on Iran for its nuclear program.

The goal of the sanctions, members of the Security Council claim, is to encourage Iran to negotiate with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA ) so as to build confidence that Iran's program is being conducted with peaceful intentions.

Cellulose challenging corn as ethanol's main ingredient

Ethanol has become a major component of the nation's alternative energy drive, and that makes its main ingredient a source of intense debate.

The basic technology of distilling corn into alcohol has been around for centuries. It was a natural choice for the ethanol industry when it started more than 20 years ago. Corn has limitations, though.

Angola, An OPEC Full Right Member

To the Angolan oil sector, the year 2006 was marked by the admission of Angola to the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) as the 12th full right member country, thus joining Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Libya, Venezuela, United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait and Qatar.

Several observers are of the opinion that the adhesion of Angolan Government to OPEC was of great political sense, for the advantages for the country in terms of technological studies and intervention in the international market, added to a more active participation in the organisation-s comprising organs.

Oil to keep cash flowing

THE record oil prices of 2006 are not expected to be repeated in 2007 but they will be high enough to fill the coffers of the oil companies and draw the ire of motorists.

Oil prices eclipsed the highs of 2005 and came close to hitting $US80 a barrel in 2006, peaking at a record $US79.45. Tensions in the Middle East – a key oil producing region – continuing supply concerns and an expected devastating hurricane season in the US all played their part.

Peak Oil Passnotes: 2006 - A Year of Confusion

When oil was hitting heights in August we here at Resource Investor mansions predicted that crude would be back at $61 at Christmas. Of course the markets do not open on Christmas Day but when they did on Boxing Day – December 26th - both the Nymex and Brent closed on exactly the same price, $61.10. You can stop applauding, thank you.

Of course we were always certain this would be the case. Oh okay, we were nothing of the sort. Whilst we were making this bold prediction the markets were already in a mood to short, by a record amount of lots. We had anticipated that the shorting, and resulting price fall, would occur far closer to end of the year than actually happened.

RUSSIAN ENERGY SUPERMODELS

The Russian Energy Inc powerhouse is taking shape, and man oh man, it is a formidable juggernaut capable of disrupting the global balance of power. Major Western energy giants struggle to keep pace, join forces in incestuous unconstructive fashion, and have become increasingly "bit players" in the scheme of things. The Seven Sisters from the US & Western Europe seem like rented high school prom queens by comparison. The Russian dames are supermodels on the runway, not much on earning style points (rude, pushy, intimidating) but incredibly impressive chassis to behold (nice bodies) !!!

European Markets Cautious at Start

On the Nymex, crude oil futures gained slightly following a report that displayed a surprisingly large fall in U.S. crude stocks. The February crude oil contract advanced 19 cents to $60.53 a barrel. January heating oil was up 1.43 cents to close at $1.6231 a gallon, and January unleaded gasoline slipped 0.54 cents to finish at $1.5821 a gallon. Natural gas for delivery in February added 10.6 cents to $6.248 a million British thermal units.

Oil: Price firms as US crude stocks fall

Oil firmed today after a government report showed a steep fall in US crude inventories due to shipping delays last week on the Gulf Coast.

The gains countered losses of around US$2 this week, triggered by mild winter weather that has cut heating demand in the world's top energy consumer.

Abu Dhabi first with Feb OPEC oil output cuts

Abu Dhabi's state oil firm said on Tuesday it will cut some crude sales in February by 3-5 percent, the first indication of an OPEC member applying new output curbs.

Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (ADNOC), the main producer in the United Arab Emirates, will reduce supplies of three grades that account for nearly half its production by 3-5 percent below contracted volumes, it said in a statement.

Oil May Rise on U.S. Supply Drop, OPEC Output Cut

Crude oil may rise on speculation that U.S. inventories will decline for a sixth week as OPEC members reduce production.

Twelve of 26 analysts, traders and brokers, or 46 percent, said prices will increase next week, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Eight expected a drop and six forecast little change. Last week, 38 percent of respondents said crude oil would gain.

Saddam's reign leaves destruction behind

Saddam Hussein boasted of being the "builder of modern Iraq." Iraqis are likely to remember his reign much differently. Even before the U.S.-led invasion to oust him, Iraq's economy was in tatters after decades of wars and U.N. sanctions, its people cowed by a dictator's brutality.

Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions:Options for the West (PDF)

Efforts to resolve the dispute over Iran’s nuclear program by diplomatic means seem to have reached an impasse. So far, despite years of negotiations, the economic and technological incentives offered by the West have failed to persuade Iran to relinquish its uranium enrichment efforts. If the Islamic Republic is indeed seeking to acquire a nuclear weapon, a sanctions regime will hardly prevent it from doing so either. Only direct talks between the US and Iran could create the conditions for an agreement.

Five Potential Surprises for 2007

As we head into the New Year, we must be mindful of the fact that this turn in the calendar can be much more than cosmetic as far as the stock market is concerned.

In particular, sector performance has a way of reversing sharply from the prior year's trend, particularly once the first week of the year is out of the way. My sense is that many investors begin to pile heavily into the sectors they've "missed out on" in December and into early January. This translates into a washout in sideline buying power for these sectors and makes them very vulnerable to sharp pullbacks or to actual tops.

Precious metals scale peaks in '06, seen marching on

Precious metals provided hefty returns in 2006, with funds and investors generously pouring money into the sector that is expected to remain strong in the new year, analysts said on Friday.

Gold surged 41 percent to hit a 26-year high of $730 an ounce in May this year before retreating, but the metal is still higher by about 23 percent from its last price in 2005.

Oil prices finish 2006 about where they started, natural gas fell mid mild weather

Oil prices settled above US$61 a barrel Friday to finish 2006 roughly where they began, marking another tough year for energy consumers and another stellar one for the petroleum industry.

It was the fifth straight year in which oil prices were higher than the year before, on average.

Ethanol May Push Corn onto Wheat Acres

High corn prices have some farmers considering planting corn over wheat they sowed in the fall.

Ethics of Biofuels

It seems like you can’t go anywhere without someone telling you that in ten years we’re all going to be driving ethanol or biodiesel cars. Biofuels are hot. People who a year ago had never heard of switchgrass keep assuring me that it will be fueling my car practically next week. No need to change anything significant about our lives, they say – just raise fuel efficiency standards a little bit and alchemically turn the corn into gold er… oil, and off we go, back to business as usual.

Sometimes a lack of oil is just a lack of oil

Last time I wrote on Iraq. This time let’s move slightly east to next door Iran. As everyone now knows last Friday the United Nations Security Council voted 15 to 0 to approve Resolution 1737, which impose sanctions on Iran for its nuclear program for the first time, including a ban on acquisition of materials and technology that might be used to build an atomic bomb.

The measure demands that Iran halt uranium enrichment and heavy-water projects that the U.S. and its European allies have said may lead to the development of nuclear weapons. It freezes the financial assets of 12 named individuals and 11 groups such as the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran. The resolution also requires the UN’s nuclear watchdog agency, the International Atomic Energy Agency, to report on Iran’s compliance within 60 days. “Further appropriate measures” such as economic penalties and severance of diplomatic relations will be required if Iran doesn’t comply, it says

OPEC raises budget oil prices in 2007

Most OPEC producers have for 2007 raised the oil prices on which they base their budgets, reducing the amount in reserve, as they grow more reliant on ready cash.

Emboldened by a four-year price rally, many have embarked on major spending projects and, having paid down foreign debt, can afford to spend now as well as later. But they remain cautious and targets set by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, just like those used by international oil companies, still tend to be well below the market in part as a precaution against any price collapse.

Blake's Devil - an energy expert

“Energy is eternal delight,” asserted William Blake’s Devil. He would be at home in our modern world.

Our comfort, material richness and conveniences are all due to the harnessing of abundant energy resources. Abundant energy gives us the thrill of driving an ATV or traveling by plane. Energy gives us the ability to fight a war half way around the world. Energy gives us great power. Energy is the true measure of wealth.

Analysis: Iraq oil in '07, bleak as '06

Iraq has a lot of oil, more than any other country in the world except two.

But its oil sector suffered decades of misuse by Saddam Hussein, leaving it badly in need of repair.

U.N. sanctions after Saddam invaded Kuwait in 1990 further hampered development.

Is This the Start of Hyperinflation? The Start of Capital Controls?

The U.S. dollar and its currency is rapidly becoming worthless, evidenced now by the need to start strong arming Americans to keep us from recognizing the metallic value in even the cheap coins our nation mandates us to use as a medium of exchange. Following is a quote from the U.S. Mint this past week, explaining why they are going to enforce a growing trend toward melting down coins. The currency buys considerably less than even the low value metals now in our coins, so here come the strong-armed tactics of a government with an inherently dishonest monetary policy.

Gold Rises a Third Day After Dollar Drop, Iran Nuclear Dispute

Gold rose for a third day in London as declines in the dollar and a dispute over Iran's nuclear program spur demand for the metal as a haven.

Gold has gained 22 percent this year, largely because the dollar's 9.7 percent decline against the euro increased the metal's appeal as an alternative investment. Some investors also bought gold after the United Nations imposed sanctions on Iran last week for its refusal to suspend uranium enrichment.

Oil price likely to be less volatile next year

Oil price may remain stable going into 2007, barring extraordinary geopolitical issues such as a tightening in monetary policies of some global major economies, said economists.

Crude oil price touched a high of US$78.40 per barrel in July this year on a combination of supply tensions in Iran arising from their nuclear plans, as well as production issues in Nigeria.

North Korea sold gold to Thailand before sanctions

North Korea sold 1.3 tonnes of gold to Thailand a few months before the
United Nations slapped international sanctions on Pyongyang in October, according to Thai customs data.

Thailand paid the reclusive communist state a total of 1.03 billion baht ($28 million) for 500 kg of gold in April and 800 kg in May, the Customs Department said on its web site, www.customs.go.th

Euro notes cash in to overtake dollar

The US dollar bill’s standing as the world’s favourite form of cash is being usurped by the five-year-old euro.

The value of euro notes in circulation is this month likely to exceed the value of circulating dollar notes, according to calculations by the Financial Times. Converted at Wednesday’s exchange rates, the euro took the lead in October.

Dollar May Drop Versus Yen Before U.S. Consumer, Housing Data

The dollar may fall for a second consecutive day against the yen and euro before U.S. reports that are forecast to show consumer confidence dropped and existing home sales slowed.

Signs of weakening growth may boost speculation the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next quarter, dimming the allure of dollar-denominated assets. The U.S. currency has dropped 9.7 percent this year versus the euro as investors bet the Fed will trail the European Central Bank in raising borrowing costs.

Dreaming of a Wet Christmas

I hope everyone enjoyed a few days off to spend with family and friends this Christmas.

Personally, I find I suffer from a kind of Charlie Brown complex - holidays like Christmas, which emphasize the continuity of ancient traditions, always seem to provide me with opportunities for anxious contemplation of looming threats to that continuity.

AN ALCOHOLIC ENERGY SOLUTION

New Year's Eve is coming: a night of drunken revelry – and drunken drivers. Which brings me to the subject of Peak Oil.

According to the Peak Oil theorists, we are rapidly approaching the halfway point of world oil consumption. Since the second half of the world's oil supply is harder to get to than the first half, we can expect production to taper off long before the oil runs out. If the Peak Oil folks are right, the tapering off could begin any day now.

Algeria increases the price of oil

The Algerian Parliament has decided to increase Algeria’s share of oil production revenues by placing an “excess” profits tax on oil shipments whenever oil prices exceed $30.00 per barrel. Algeria, one of Africa’s largest oil and natural gas exporters, will levy the new tax starting in 2007. Depending on total output, the excess profits tax will range from 5% to 50% on the Algerian profits of foreign companies, including Shell, BP, Anadarko Petroleum and Hess Corporation

Oil weapon a 'double-edged sword' in Iran crisis

Iran will be hesitant to use its oil as a weapon in its confrontation with the West on the nuclear issue, nor will the UN initiate sanctions on Iran's oil exports, Chinese analysts said yesterday.

"It is a double-edged sword and neither can win through this way," said Yang Guang, director of the Institute of West-Asian and African Studies under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

Want alternative energy? Try pond scum

Mounting concern about U.S. dependence on foreign oil and about global warming is causing a surge of interest and investment in biomass, hydrogen, solar power and other alternative energy sources.

But bubbling beneath the surface of this wave--in more ways than one--is a technology that, while lacking an existing market or powerful lobby to advance its profile, may soon emerge as the most promising source of portable liquid fuels and that can offer unique environmental benefits to the electrical generation industry.

Analyst sees no long-term future in grain ethanol

Total U.S. corn for ethanol usage is seen at 5 billion bushels by 2009, or about 3 billion bushels more than currently used.

While that may prove a boon for corn producers and prices near term, it may prove to be a boondoggle in the long run, according to a nationally recognized market analyst.

Canada gas exports to U.S. could plunge: analyst

Canadian natural gas exports to the United States could post the largest drop in a generation in 2007, an analyst says, as exploration cuts reduce supply and home-grown demand to fuel oil sands output booms.

Martin King, who follows energy commodities at FirstEnergy Capital, a Calgary investment bank, expects exports to fall by up to a billion cubic feet a day next year, down about 10 percent from current shipments around 10 billion cubic feet a day.

former National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) officials project that oil exports could go to zero within 12-19 years ( PDF)

The National Academy of Sciences just published an important paper written by Roger Stern of Johns Hopkins University. Stern provides a few reasons why the Iranian need for nuclear power may not be as embellished as most believe. The arrival of peak oil in giant Iranian fields is something to consider sooner rather than later. From the paper: “Recent analyses by former National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) officials project that oil exports could go to zero within 12-19 years.”

Will the dollar capitulate in 2007?

The year 2006 has been very unlucky for the U.S. dollar. In mid-December, the American currency hit a 20-month low against the euro. The dollar's supporters were all the more disappointed because they expected different things from this year, which began quite optimistically.

Abu Dhabi to cut Feb crude supply

Abu Dhabi's state oil firm said it will cut supplies of its crude oil in February, the first indication of an Opec member applying new output curbs for the month.

Abu Dhabi National Oil Co (Adnoc) will reduce supplies of three grades by 3-5 per cent below contracted volumes, it said in a statement.

Iran and North Korea Show the Limits of Sanctions

Analysis: In both cases, the U.S. managed to achieve diplomatic consensus only after the sanctions imposed were considerably watered down. And neither case looks likely to work

2007 energy outlook: costs up

Higher oil prices could come during a soft economy.

Remember this? Motorists complaining at the pump as the price of gasoline rises. Airlines bumping up airfares to cover expensive jet fuel. And delivery services tacking on surcharges, reflecting a record price for a barrel of oil.

But it's not just a description of this past spring. It's also the forecast for next year, probably just when school lets out for the summer and motorists are starting to put more miles on the odometer.

U.S. gold up on Iran woes, higher oil price

U.S. gold futures rebounded from the long Christmas weekend to hit an 11-day high Tuesday as funds dug into the precious metal as a safe-haven investment as oil rose initially on Iran worries.

Sentiment was also lifted by official and private forecasts for a robust Chinese economy next year, which analysts say would help the country's top trading partner, the United States.

2nd Largest Oil Field Drying Up Faster

It was an incredible revelation last week that the second largest oil field in the world is exhausted and past its peak output. Yet that is what the Kuwait Oil Company revealed about its Burgan field. The peak output of the Burgan oil field will now be around 1.7 million barrels per day, and not the two million barrels per day forecast for the rest of the field’s 30 to 40 years of life, Chairman Farouk Al-Zanki told Bloomberg. He said that engineers had tried to maintain 1.9 million barrels per day but that 1.7 million is the optimum rate. Kuwait will now spend some $3 million a year for the next year to boost output and exports from other fields.

Oil and the Straits of Hormuz

President Bush has decided to delay publicly outlining his new Iraq strategy until next month. In many ways, the new plan will represent a more difficult decision than the initial call to go to war in Iraq. Even Mr. Bush has been forced to admit that post-Saddam Hussein Iraq has not turned out as expected. Mr. Bush is also buying time for the Iraqi factions -- Sunnis, Shi'ites and Kurds -- to figure out whether they can move closer to agreeing on national reconciliation efforts and trying to create a little space for newly minted Defense Secretary Robert Gates to assume his new role. When Mr. Bush announces his new approach, he will also decide how he will deal with the emerging Iranian nuclear threat. But the looming confrontation between the United States and Iran could affect something that had been unforeseen: global sea trade.

'There is no proof that CO2 is causing global warming'

Objection: Correlation is not proof of causation. There is no proof that CO2 is the cause of current warming.

Answer: There is no "proof" in science -- that is a property of mathematics. In science, what matters is the balance of evidence, and theories that can explain that evidence. Where possible, scientists make predictions and design experiments to confirm, modify, or contradict their theories, and must modify these theories as new information comes in.

Iran: Oil exports could bottom out by 2014

Iran's oil exports may be depleted in less than 10 years, as investment in new production fails to offset domestic demand growth, reserves depletion and refinery leaks, a Johns Hopkins University study shows. An annual export-decline rate of up to 12 per cent suggests Iran's exports may drop to zero by 2014.

( try bugmenot.com for a login/password )

Iran: Laughing all the way to ground zero

According to a laundered and standard account in Wikipedia

The League of Nations condemned Italy's aggression and imposed economic sanctions in November 1935, but the sanctions were largely ineffective. As Stanley Baldwin, the British Prime Minister, later observed, this was ultimately because no one had the military forces on hand to withstand an Italian attack.

CONSPIRACY THEORIES ON OIL PRICES ARE BUNK

Dear John: Watch and see how fast the price of oil and gasoline go back up now that the election is over. J.S.

Dear J.S.: So, you are one of those who believe that Republicans manipulated the

Our energy future - a point of view

Energy Bulletin is honored to publish this extensive paper by Joseph DiNunno, a retired engineer with a 64-year career in in the electrical/nuclear field, with emphasis on the "safety of nuclear reactors and environmental considerations in power plant siting." He has worked for the Atomic Energy Commission (AEC), the NUS Corporation, and in many other positions.

Venezuela may follow Iran on euro oil sales

Venezuela has expressed interest in an Iranian move which seeks to ask buyers to pay for oil in euro rather than US dollars.

The oil-rich nation said it planned to see if a similar scheme could be introduced to its crude exports.

Opec cuts, demand to keep oil over $63 in '07: survey

Healthy global demand and Opec supply cuts will keep oil prices over $63 a barrel in 2007, a Reuters running poll of analysts showed yesterday.

Americans are wondering whether Santa Claus is Chinese

As Christmas circa 2006 looms, US paranoia over China’s rise has got to the point that some worried Americans are even beginning to wonder whether Santa Claus is Chinese.

One prominent American who thinks Santa is Chinese is Lester Brown, a former president of the World Bank and now head of the Earth Policy Institute (EPI), a Washington-based think tank.

Climate change sceptics issued with challenge

Britain's leading climate scientist has challenged those who question the impact of the human population on global warming to defend their claims that car and factory emissions of carbon dioxide are not heating up the planet.
Alan Thorpe, chief executive of the Natural Environment Research Council, said yesterday he planned to defeat so-called 'deniers', first on-line and later at a public debate.

The coming Russia led cartel on Natural Gas that will shock the world financial system like never before

Are you ready for the biggest financial shock of the world? It is not OPEC. It is not the nuclear North Korea or Iran. It is not Venezuela’s rhetoric. The seeds of the next energy shock are in place. Early signs of trouble is evident in Central Asia and Europe.

Oh, jeeze, not another ethanol post ....

I was reading this month's Scientific American last night and came upon an article on ethanol. You can't read it without a subscription, so, sorry about that. Matthew Wald, a reporter for the New York Times, wrote it. Interestingly enough, not everyone at the NYT appears to have the same opinion on corn ethanol.

A Primer on Reserve Growth - part 1 of 3

The difference in vision between so called "optimists" and pessimists" with respect to the peak in world oil production is often caused by a view of future technological development in the oil industry. This development influences both conventional and unconventional oil production. Only a part of the oil in an oil field can be produced. It is claimed by oil companies and various institutes that technological advancement will increase the recoverable amount, thereby postponing the peak in conventional oil for several decades. In essence this means that the amount of recoverable reserve increases over time due to changes in technology, economy, insights. But also expected recoverable reserves increase over time due to past underestimates. This is why the term is called "reserve growth".

No more bubbles to bail out the housing bubble

Wall Street has a soft spot for the "soft landing" thesis, but to me it's crystal clear that a serious economic slowdown is under way. What has been surprising: not that the economy is weakening but that so many people seem to expect a soft landing, and therefore remain in denial about the seriousness of the slowdown.

5 sector funds you'll need in 2007

The year ahead will be a great time to take advantage of short-term trends with exchange-traded funds aimed at key sectors. Here are all the ETFs you'll need in your investing toolbox.

Peak Oil Passnotes: Peak Oil vs. Cera - The Fight Continues

You may remember recently that Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) produced a report Why the “Peak Oil” Theory Falls Down – Myths, Legends, and the Future of Oil Resources. In the report it rubbished the theory of peak oil before going on to say that “peak oil” will in fact happen.

It did this by saying that there will be no single peak but a series of bumps and bounces they called an “undulating plateau.” This seemed quite odd to many “peak oil” observers as one of the prime theories, or types, of peak oil is in fact an undulating plateau. As opposed to a nice pointy mountain type shaped triangle.

Why do global warming and peak oil skeptics speak out against their own economic interests?

I don’t understand global warming and peak oil skeptics. What is their incentive to disprove global warming? Warming alarmists feel that they’re protecting the future of the planet—a pretty good incentive. But the skeptics don’t really get much payoff, unless they're energy majors, besides the opportunity to make fun of Al Gore. And yet people like Michael Crichton still get more press than Tyrell Owens on Monday Sportscenter.

A lesson from Thailand ... (by Mike Larson)

Nine years, five months, and twenty days ago, Thailand revalued its currency, the baht. That one small move ultimately brought down stock markets, currencies, and economies throughout Southeast Asia and the world.

Now, Thailand is in the news again — implementing capital controls on international investors. Those rules would lock up a chunk of foreign investors’ funds for a year in an attempt to curb currency speculation.

Malaysia says it is not worried over ringgit's rise

The Malaysian government said Friday it was not troubled over the rise of the country's currency, which has climbed its highest level in nearly a decade.

Asked by reporters whether the ringgit was too strong, Malaysia's junior finance minister, Nor Mohamed Yakcop said "not at all," adding that officials were "not worried" about the matter.

Oil May Rise as OPEC Cuts Trim Supplies, Survey Shows

Crude oil may rise next week on speculation inventories will decline as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries reduces production.

Sixteen of 42 analysts, traders and brokers, or 38 percent, said prices will increase, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Thirteen expected a drop and 13 forecast little change. Last week, analysts were evenly divided on what direction prices would move.

Opec cuts, good demand to keep oil over $63 in ’07

London • Healthy global demand and Opec supply cuts will keep oil prices over $63 a barrel in 2007, a running poll of analysts showed on Friday.

But price direction has grown increasingly unclear with analysts at odds over supply and demand fundamentals. Average forecasts for next year ranged between $76 and $54.50, a divergence of more than $21.

Will Iraq's Oil Blessing Become a Curse?

The Iraqi government is considering a new oil law that could give private oil companies greater control over its vast reserves. In light of rampant violence and shaky democratic institutions, many fear the law is being pushed through hastily by special interests behind closed doors.

World: Global Energy Woes Spark Russian Resurgence

As oil prices climbed in 2006 and burgeoning global powers China and India emerged as major energy consumers, one country above all others appeared poised to profit -- Russia.

And nowhere were Russia's energy politics more icy than in the former Soviet republics and the European Union.

Iran, North Korea dig in against West's threats

IRAN has defied imminent United Nations sanctions over its nuclear program and pledged that it will become a member of the nuclear club within weeks.

North Korea has not been persuaded to give up its nuclear ambitions either, during talks in Beijing which ended last night without progress on the issue of disarmament.

Rising Ethanol Demand To Support Corn In 07

Tight corn and soybean fundamentals related to increasing demand for biodiesel fuel may help boost corn, soybean and wheat prices next year, according to a Goldman Sachs report released Thursday.

Ethanol-related demand for corn should rise 11% in 2007, the company says in its Commodity Watch report for 2007. That increase, along with higher feed-based demand for corn, will either lead to a substantial increase in planted acreage for the 2007-08 U.S. corn crop or declines in corn inventories, the outlook stated.

Clueless in China

Speaking as I rarely feel entitled to do, on behalf of all my fellow professional economists, I felt true, true sympathy last week for Ben Bernanke, as he trailed after Henry Paulson in China.

Paulson's China policy is easily understood. In the United States government the Treasury represents the interests of Wall Street, as Joe Stiglitz has written eloquently from direct observation. An alumnus of Goldman Sachs, Secretary Paulson is ideally suited to his job.

Investing in oil drilling equipment

- "Oil demand is too young, supply is too old," according to oil industry expert, Matt Simmons. Most of the presenter’s at last month’s ASPO-USA conference agreed with Simmons assessment. ASPO stands for the "Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas."

The Peak Oil Crisis: The Council of Governments Starts Planning

The Metropolitan Washington Area Council of Governments (COG) recently released its 2006 Strategic Energy Plan. Reports like this of course are lengthy —220 pages—- and are unlikely to be read outside of a narrow circle of local officials and energy professionals. As it deals with a topic soon to be vital to those of us who live around the nation's capitol, I thought it would be worthwhile to read it for you and pass on some insights as to what COG thinks we should be doing.

What Lies Below?

No question, we have entered an era of inflated energy prices that is already producing a boom in new innovations, and a slowdown in consumption. How radical will these changes be? The answer depends largely on how much oil the earth really holds. But make no mistake: there's plenty of it. This is a new oil age, not the end of oil as we know it.

Iraq northern oil attacks take $11 billion

Iraq's Oil Ministry said it lost $11 billion and 651 days of oil exports because of attacks on its northern oil pipeline.

The ministry said those numbers are just from 2004 through the first half of 2006, according to the business Web site Iraq Directory.

Don’t get scrooged by Washington! (by Larry Edelson)

I intend to kick back and enjoy this coming holiday weekend with my family. I hope you do the same — because I think 2007 is going to be one heck of a year in the markets.

In fact, it looks like the fireworks are already beginning: On Tuesday, the Commerce Department announced that the Producer Price Index rose a full 2% for November, the biggest jump in 32 years!

UN to impose nuclear embargo on Iran

The UN Security Council is poised to order sanctions against Iran today, placing an embargo on sensitive nuclear exports in the international drive to prevent Tehran from building a nuclear bomb. With the diplomatic pressure set to increase after months of negotiations, the US and Britain are moving extra warships and strike aircraft to the Persian Gulf.

Much of the military focus is on countering any attempts by the Iranians to block oil shipments by mining sea lanes in retaliation against a UN resolution which British diplomats hope will be adopted unanimously by the 15-nation security council.

The Peak Oil Crisis: The Council of Governments Starts Planning

The Metropolitan Washington Area Council of Governments (COG) recently released its 2006 Strategic Energy Plan. Reports like this of course are lengthy —220 pages—- and are unlikely to be read outside of a narrow circle of local officials and energy professionals. As it deals with a topic soon to be vital to those of us who live around the nation's capitol, I thought it would be worthwhile to read it for you and pass on some insights as to what COG thinks we should be doing.

Elephants And Quagmires

While the Bush administration, the media and nearly all the Democrats still refuse to explain the war in Iraq in terms of oil, the ever-pragmatic members of the Iraq Study Group share no such reticence.

Page 1, Chapter 1 of the Iraq Study Group report lays out Iraq's importance to its region, the U.S. and the world with this reminder: "It has the world's second-largest known oil reserves."

Is There A Synthetic Fuel In Your Future?

Jet fuel prices are going nowhere but up, according to conventional wisdom, but there may be an unconventional alternative in the near future. The U.S. Air Force (USAF) last week flew an eight-engined Boeing B-52 Stratofortress bomber on a five-plus-hour flight, powered only by a synthetic jet fuel. The flight was dubbed a success both by the Air Force and the fuel's manufacturer, Tulsa, Okla.-based Syntroleum Corporation, and follows a similar test flight earlier in the year. Both flights took off from and recovered to Edwards Air Force Base in California. As wider unrest threatens traditional petroleum resources in the Middle East and as industry observers disagree on whether "peak oil" has been reached, the U.S. military is moving forward with plans for half of its turbine fuel to be synthetically derived by the next decade.

New Zealand's response to Peak Oil

The Transport and Oil Working Group of the New Zealand Sustainable Energy Forum has just released Peak Oil: A Major Issue for New Zealand [PDF, 60 KB], which is designed as a quick guide for the public and the media on what the Peak Oil issue is about, how it affects New Zealand, and how New Zealand should respond.

Crude Oil Inventories Decline

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories dropped by 6.3 million barrels compared to the previous week. However, at 329.1 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories remain well above the upper end of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 1.0 million barrels last week, but remain below the lower end of the average range.

Iraq's Grim Oil Politics

On the way to a surprise visit in Baghdad in October, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice decided to talk to reporters about oil. "We believe that oil has to benefit the Iraqi people as a whole," she said at a press gaggle en route to the Iraqi capital. In a whirlwind of meetings over the next two days, she pushed the oil topic again and again with leaders on all sides—Sunni, Shiite and, most prominently, Kurdish President Massoud Barzani, to whom she reinforced her feelings that "oil needs to be a unifying factor, not one which will help to make the country less unified." In other words: please stop fighting and share.

Cuba's strange path

Cuba has become the poster child for a transition away from an agricultural economy based on fossil fuel inputs and for a society focused on self-sufficiency. Strangely, it may owe much of its success in this regard to its relative backwardness and its isolation from the world community. The implications for so-called modern industrial countries in a world approaching peak oil couldn't be more striking. To understand this, it is worth briefly tracing Cuba's path since the Cuban revolution.

Could Spot Uranium Prices Reach $100/pound?

Energy Guru Bill Powers Forecasts Uranium Shortfall in Three Years. Bill Powers focuses on investment opportunities in the Canadian energy sector, mainly independent oil & gas companies and now uranium companies. We talked with him and he thinks uranium could reach $100/pound this decade.

Interviewer: A lot of newsletters cover oil and gas, but you picked uranium, which hardly anyone was covering until recently?

OPEC: Oil Below $60 Unfeasible

There's word that OPEC member states are in agreement that any crude oil price below $60 a barrel would be unfeasible.

Iran's oil minister is quoted as saying that "prices below $60 a barrel would not be responsive to the expenditure needs of the member states of OPEC's oil industry."

Commodities: Mild U.S. weather leads to drop in natural gas price

Natural gas prices dipped to an eight-week low Tuesday as mild weather prevailed from Chicago to the U.S. East Coast, cutting demand for the fuel.

Temperatures will remain above normal across the biggest natural gas- consuming regions, covering most of the eastern half of the country, through Dec. 28, MDA EarthSat Energy Weather forecaster predicted. Mild weather has eased demand on stored supplies.

Iran: Sanctions won't stop nuclear plans

Hardline Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Tuesday that UN sanctions would not stop Iran from pursuing its uranium enrichment program, The Associated Press reported.

The United States and its European allies are seeking sanctions against Iran because of its refusal to stop uranium enrichment, a technology that can be used to produce nuclear fuel for civilian purposes or fuel for a nuclear bomb.

Farmland as an Investment Asset

Over the past half century, U.S. farmland prices rose though two long bull markets, punctuated by a short, severe crash. Farmland rents have kept to a narrower range, centered around 7%+ of land value.

Farmland prices paced or exceeded monetary inflation through most of the period. Since the CPI has been severely diluted by geometric averaging and hedonics, an alternative CPI measure from Shadow Government Statistics is shown for comparison (see chart below).

THE MOGAMBO GURU

Things economic are not making any sense at all anymore, and so I naturally deduced that is because I have committed another accidental "medication error", either by taking too many of these pills or too few of those, and the only smart thing to do was start over with a handful of each, and wash the whole thing down with some bourbon to get things really moving. I'm sorry to report that it didn't help; things are still strange, only more blurred. And kind of spinning around, too.

But still weird, as, for instance, foreign central banks bought up a cool $17.7 billion in US government and agency debt last week, and stuffed it into their account at the Fed. Nice piece of change!

With Liquidity The Overriding Story Thematic Mariners Beware

The contradictions running wild today have rarely been more acute. To be sure, and depending on the source, the U.S. economy is supposedly already in recession, stocks are in a great new bull market, China is about to dump greenbacks for gold, and the commodities bull is dead but will last another 30-years. For yet another example of just how far the confusion stretches consider that Merrill’s chief investment strategist, Richard Bernstein, recently co-authored a report covering ten “growth themes” with an “unrecognized twist”, and that his first platform was to ‘Buy large-cap stocks in developed markets’. That Mr. Bernstein has resorted to suggesting that large cap stocks have an ‘unrecognized’ safe haven appeal is, to say the least, surprising. After all, before the most recent rally large caps had underperformed for 6-years and everyone on Wall Street had already beaten this contrarian theme to death.

China halts expansion of ethanol industry

China has suspended further expansion of its ethanol industry as processing corn for fuel and other industrial uses is being blamed for soaring grain prices.

With grain prices rising almost five percent in Nov., the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has ordered local governments to stop approving new projects that process corn for industrial uses.

China's Copper Imports Down 35.8% in First 11 Months

China imported 585,190 tonnes refined copper and copper alloy in the first 11 months, down 35.8% from last year, according to statistics released by the General Administration of Customs last Friday.

Refined copper and copper alloy exports surged 132.5% to 243,291 tonnes in the first 11 months was in part due to exports by the State Reserves Bureau to settle short positions on the London Metal Exchange (LME), Li Yusheng, analyst with Antaike Information in Beijing, said.

US says China talks ease oil reserve concerns, but others remain

A recent energy dialogue in Beijing has left U.S. officials more confident that China and other Asian nations won't use their oil stockpiles to manipulate prices, a Department of Energy official said Tuesday.

Karen Harbert, assistant secretary of energy for policy and international affairs, said energy ministers from the U.S., China, Japan, South Korea and India last week signed a communique that signals China's willingness to only tap into their strategic oil reserves for supply disruptions. The officials of the five large energy-consuming nations met as part of a five-party ministerial dialogue.

ENERGY MATTERS: With Angola, US OPEC Crude Imports At 30-Yr High

A rejuvenated OPEC, including its newest member, Angola, is shipping crude oil to the U.S. in volumes not seen in 30 years, raising fresh concerns about energy security.

Once exports from Angola are included in the total, OPEC’s share of U.S. crude imports is poised to climb above 52%, the highest share since 1993, an Energy Matters review of U.S. government data shows.

OPEC on collision course with Russia

OPEC meets in Nigeria to discuss how to remain relevant in the future energy market as it looks set to embark on a collision course with Russia.

When member states of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) met in Nigeria last week, the immediate concern was how to sustain oil prices at favorable peaks. But underlying the meeting were concerns about how to remain relevant in the energy market in coming years.

OPEC predicts rise in demand

OPEC, the producer of 40 percent of the world's oil, said it expects global demand to rise 1.6 percent in 2007, up from this year's "modest" gain of 1.2 percent.

The United States, China and the Middle East will lead the gain in world demand to 85.6 million barrels a day in 2007, from 84.3 million barrels a day this year, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' Vienna-based secretariat said Monday. Both estimates were unchanged from the previous monthly report.

Opec sees weaker 2007 oil market

OPEC today said the world oil market shows signs of weakening in 2007 as economic growth slows, a problem the exporter group seeks to address through its decision last week to cut supply.

In a monthly report, the group that pumps more than a third of the world's oil held its forecast for global demand growth at 1.3 million barrels per day and said a weakening US economy posed risks to the outlook.

Ahmadinejad says U.N. sanctions won't stop Iran's nuclear program

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Tuesday that possible U.N. Security Council sanctions would not stop Iran from pursuing its uranium enrichment program.

The United States and its European allies have been seeking to impose sanctions against Iran because of its refusal to stop uranium enrichment, a technology that can be used to produce nuclear fuel for civilian purposes or fuel for a nuclear bomb.

Iranian President : US only aims to access Iraq's oil reserves

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Tuesday said that it was evident from the beginning that both US and Britain intend to access Iraq's oil reserves and have hegemony over the Iraqi nation.

He made the remark while speaking at a public gathering in Kermanshah's Azadi stadium.

Investment guru on commodities market

Investment guru form New York, Jim Rogers speaks on commodities market, emerging market equities and India's stock market.

Thailand's battered stock market opens nearly 9 percent higher

Thailand: Thailand's stock market opened nearly 9 percent higher Wednesday, recovering from a historic fall that shook regional markets and sparked concerns over another Asian financial crisis.

Shares on the Stock Exchange of Thailand jumped 8.9 percent to open at 677 after the market tumbled nearly 15 percent the day before in reaction to new rules restricting foreign investment aimed at stemming the baht's surge. Shares continued to climb to a 10.6 percent gain by midday.

GLOBAL MARKETS-Dow hits record, oil jumps, bonds and dollar drop

The Dow Jones industrial average rose to a fresh record on Tuesday, buoyed by Exxon Mobil Corp. after oil prices climbed, while bonds slipped as the U.S. Producer Price Index registered its biggest gain since November 1974 and dashed hopes for an interest-rate cut any time soon.

In New York, crude prices rose almost $1 and ended above $63 a barrel on expectations that U.S. inventories have declined in the latest week. Gold ended above $625 an ounce.

Sterling steady but Asian Central banks Buying Gold Instead

Everyone wants a piece of the United Kingdom today. Bill Bryson just got himself an honorary gong. Monty Python’s ‘Spamalot’ musical will soon hit Las Vegas (it’s a hoot, by the way). And half-a-million Polish citizens are now living in Britain to earn Sterling, not Zloty.

'Current global warming is just part of a natural cycle'

Objection: Current warming is just part of a natural cycle.

Answer: While it is undoubtedly true that there are natural cycles and variations in global climate, those who insist that current warming is purely natural -- or even mostly natural -- have two challenges.

Why Russia loves global warming

While nobody's happy about rising sea levels and temperatures in hotter parts of the world, the warming of the Arctic is a different story. The melting of the sea ice during the summer months has at last made the dream of 15th-century explorers—the Northwest Passage—a reality. The new Arctic passage will dramatically shipping times. But as The Economist points out, the shipping industry is not the only one that will benefit from climate change:

Peak Debt - US Debt & GDP Growth

I am no expert on Peak Oil, but Peak Oil is not the urgent problem that the world faces, economically, or politically. The problems of the supply-demand of oil will play out over a longer period and its effects would be spread over a longer period of time than that of the Peak Debt, which are lot more immediate. As a matter of fact, it has been the rapidly rising debt (racing towards the peak), which in turn has "fueled" a worldwide construction boom, that has resulted in the high prices for oil over the past 4 years and not the realization of the problem of Peak Oil. During the coming global depression, within this decade, the price of crude oil should fall below $25 a barrel and there will be glut due to sharply falling demand. I realize that these are not the concerns that people have today as long as the American consumer keeps borrowing. But, for how long?

The Gold-Silver Ratio: Looking Through the Crystal Ball

Don't we all wish we could know what we know today but bring that information back in time and then really clean up? Well, we can't, but for the purposes of this analysis the next best thing is a combination of history, logic, simple math and of course, charts. Now that Stockcharts.com is finally back up and running, I got right down to hitting the ratio charts after the impulsive reversal in the Gold-Silver ratio. It felt as though something important happened Friday, and indeed I think did.

Last Warning! Three-Pronged Collapse ... Stocks, Bonds and Real Estate

Today I want to give you one final warning on the crisis I see coming. I've told you some of this before, but I feel it's so important that it needs to be repeated one last time. Gold's rally back over $600, and recently to more than $640 an ounce, is telling us — in no uncertain terms — that a financial crisis of major proportions is about to strike.

The dollar is telling us the same thing — that the “full faith and credit” of the U.S. Government is plunging ... that all is not well. Just look at how the dollar has been falling against many of the world's currencies ...

The Geopolitics of Energy Security: The Rise of Asia

It is a telling sign of expanding bilateral relations that two prestigious organizations – one Norwegian and one Indian – have come together to set the agenda for on one of the key issues of our times.

Energy is indeed at the crossroads of nearly every dimension of globalisation and development – and indeed security.

Why 2007 Is a Make-or-Break Year for China, Asia: William Pesek

Of all the questions facing Asia in 2007, none looms larger than what to expect from China.

The last 12 months proved more than ever how much Asia is relying on its second-biggest economy. Japan may be back and the U.S. economy is by far the world's largest, yet China's 10 percent growth is increasingly underpinning Asia's hopes.

Growing corn for ethanol has limits

The ethanol boom has brought smiles to the face of farmers and energy security advocates alike in the last few years. But ethanol's success represents a much deeper shift, turning on its head the very foundations of U.S. farm policy - a long-time losing obsession on exports as the road to prosperity.

Next year, a new Democratic Congress will write a new Farm Bill that will set U.S. farm policy for the next five years. And for the first time in decades, congressional leaders have said the Farm Bill will focus almost exclusively on managing farm production for domestic use. Ethanol has flat-out rolled right over the old export-driven model, which year after year has failed to benefit U.S. farmers and rural communities.

China suspends construction of new corn-based ethanol plants

The Chinese government has suspended the approval of new ethanol projects that use corn as a feedstock to limit the industrial consumption of corn. That’s according to China Daily, which says the move comes as domestic Chinese corn prices have risen 15 to 20% in the last month.

The paper also says it’s the first time China’s government has explicitly stated its policy on biofuels development. Yang Jian, an official with China's Ministry of Agriculture quoted by the paper, said China’s policy is that ethanol should "neither be at the cost of foodgrains for people's consumption nor should it compete with grain crops for cultivated land."

US Wants Iran Sanctions Resolution within Days

The Bush administration said Monday it wants the U.N. Security Council to vote within a matter of days on a resolution putting sanctions on Iran for refusing to halt uranium enrichment. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice discussed the issue by phone with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, whose government has resisted some proposed punitive steps against Tehran. VOA's David Gollust reports from the State Department.

Russia cautious on quick U.N. vote on Iran sanctions

Western nations are pushing for a vote this week on a U.N. Security Council draft resolution imposing sanctions on Iran for its nuclear ambitions, but Russia and China on Monday were far more cautious.

China's U.N. ambassador, Wang Guangya, said there was a 50-50 chance of agreement soon, while Russia's Vitaly Churkin objected to several provisions in the draft, including a travel ban and a list of Iranians subject to an assets freeze.

The resolution is a reaction to Iran's failure to comply with an Aug. 31 U.N. deadline to suspend uranium enrichment, which can produce fuel for nuclear power plants or for bombs.

Local vote embarrassing Iran president

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad suffered an embarrassing blow in local council races, according to partial election results Monday, in voting viewed as a sign of public discontent with his hard-line stance.

The balloting represented a partial comeback for opponents of Ahmadinejad, whose Islamic government's policies have fueled fights with the West and brought Iran closer to U.N. sanctions.

Energy crisis. Wait or act?

Life is impossible without energy. The life of a contemporary person - even more so. To consume power, one should produce it. Traditional resources for that are unfortunately exhaustible, but in order to pass on to alternative energy, a lot of problems should be solved. Has the energy crisis begun? If so - what should be done about it, if not – how should we get ready for it?

Dollar Trumping Historic Gold/Oil Relationship

Gold for February delivery plummeted down $11.80 to close at $619.10 an ounce on Nymex today as crude futures shot up 44 cents to $62.95. Analysts see the oil/gold ratio waning as the dollar takes charge of gold’s movements.

In the crude market, traders continued to weigh OPEC’s plan to cut a half a million barrels per day of output in February. And today, another Nigerian hostage situation occurred as armed men reportedly shut down Shell’s 12,000 bpd oil complex, kidnapped three hostages a shooting one man.

Argentina Province Bans Open-Pit Mining

The parliament of Argentina’s western province of Mendoza disabled its mining sector this week, voting to suspend all open-pit mining and halted issuing any new exploration and mining permits in the province. A couple of Canadian-listed juniors developing projects in the area felt the repercussions immediately.

The Mendoza Province, famous for its wine making industry and ski resorts, has faced strong environmental opposition. Mining opponents fear the blasting and chemicals used in metals mining could pollute water supplies - especially needed for the Malbec vines grown in the plains below the Andes. The main industry in the area is agriculture.

Lawsuits target 'first strike' coins

To avid collectors, coins that stand out as rare or of exceptional quality are worth more than their weight in platinum, silver or gold.

Numismatic enthusiasts are often willing to pay a premium for American Eagle, American Buffalo and other specialty coins labeled "first strikes" because they are billed as among the first of that year's batch produced by the U.S. Mint.

Report: Federal deficit would be higher

The federal deficit for 2006 would have been 81 percent higher than the $247.7 billion that was reported two months ago if the government had to use the same accounting methods as private companies.

That was the finding Friday when the administratio

n released a 166-page "Financial Report of the United States Government" for the 2006 budget year that ended on Sept. 30.

100 Things You Can Do to Get Ready for Peak Oil

Sharon Astyk, as those familiar with her writing here at Energy Bulletin, or on Casaubon's Book will know, is well advanced down the route of low energy living. As such, these suggestions go far beyond the usual stale sustainability tips for consumers, and into the kind of adaptations which can reduce our energy usage not by percentage points, but by orders of magnitute. At the same time they offer rich challenges, good food, and meaningful family and community experiences.

Peak Oil Update - December 2006: Production Forecasts and EIA Oil Production Numbers

An update on the last production numbers from the EIA along with different oil production forecasts.

Shell exec makes case for market decisions

Shell Oil Co. President John Hofmeister has led his company to 16 U.S. cities this year as part of a 50-city tour at a time of high oil-company profits and relatively high prices at the pump.

The tour, which could take as long as two years, is a way for Shell to listen to Americans' concerns about the industry, he said. And the talks give Shell a chance to talk about why it believes it should be able to drill offshore in areas that are now off limits.

DOE selects Mississippi site for oil reserve expansion

A salt dome in southeastern Mississippi has been chosen for expansion of the government's Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the Energy Department announced today.

The site near Richton, Miss., will help the government eventually expand the size of the emergency oil stockpile to 1 billion barrels.

Silver is the top pick for 2007 but trade carefully

If 2007 proves to be a stormy year in financial markets, as this column predicted last week, then precious metals look the most solid investment choice. However, precious metals would likely also tumble in a global capital market sell-off, along with oil and other commodity prices.

Investment Nuggets

Widely travelled and contrarian in his views, Jim Beeland Rogers was the co-founder of Quantum Fund along with George Soros. Rogers has repeatedly demolished the myth that investing in commodities is more risky than investing in stocks and makes a strong case for holding at least some proportion of your portfolio in `real' assets. His views on commodities and his experiences are captured in his books — Investment Biker, Hot Commodities and Adventure Capitalist.

Liquid coal: A cheaper, cleaner 21st century fuel?

When railroads ruled, it was the sweating firemen shoveling coal into the furnace who kept the engines running.

Now, nearly two centuries after Stephenson's "Rocket" steam locomotive helped usher in the Industrial Revolution, that same coal could be the fuel that keeps the jet age aloft.

Letter: Gore spewing nonsense about global warming

We've heard plenty from Al Gore about global warming. He's got a movie out now, and he's burning up jet fuel by the tanker load crisscrossing the country to lecture us about fossil fuels. Gore's no scientist, but that doesn't stop him. He's even recruited our very own former mayor to spread his propaganda.

What is it with these people? A while ago, we heard other doomsday forecasts from environmentalists, only back then it was global cooling. They had evidence showing that an icy calamity was coming soon. After that, overpopulation was soon going to kill us. Then, there was a coming nuclear winter and a silent spring. When none of their predicted disasters materialized, they just invented a new way to say the sky is falling. How they have any remaining credibility at all is beyond me.

Iran not to give up nuclear program even sanctioned

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman said on Sunday that Tehran's nuclear program is legitimate and Iran would not give up its nuclear activities even sanctioned by UN, the local Fars news agency reported.

At his weekly press conference, spokesman Seyed Mohammad Hosseini told reporters that his country's nuclear program was in full conformity with the international rules and regulations, adding there's no reason for Tehran to give up the right even sanctioned by the United Nations.

The Oil Connection in Iraq Study Group Report

A group of Iraqi politicians and ministers is close to finishing a draft of a national oil law that, if enacted, would be the most significant legislation passed by the government so far and help narrow some of the country’s major political schisms, according to the International Herald Tribune.

The working draft calls for the central government in Baghdad to collect oil revenues and distribute them to provinces or regions based on population. The law could also encourage foreign investment in the oil industry.

Climate change: So where has all the snow gone?

With trees bursting into bud and ski runs looking like spring meadows, the Alpine winter appears to have been cancelled

Midwinter's day may not fall until later this week, but spring already seems to have come to the roof of Europe.

Commodities guru Jim Rogers looks to 2007

Legendary commodities investor Jim Rogers told the international mining community to seriously invest time and money in China and keep following the bull market in the raw materials sector as investment themes for 2007.

Mr Rogers, who co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros, and is well-known as an author, traveller and academic was the keynote speaker at the 37th Minesite Forum in London.

OPEC puts off production cut until February

Cartel determined to lower oil stockpiles but fears high prices if output cut too soon

Study leaves impression it's still about oil

The Iraq Study Group report has produced a comprehensive and informed repudiation of President Bush and his administration's failed Iraqi invasion and occupation. It took three and a half years for the irrefutable evidence of George Bush's lies and deception to be absorbed by a majority of Americans (the latest count at 73 percent), culminating in the November election loss of GOP control of both houses of Congress.

The 10-member group and its 30-some advisers are to be commended for a job well done. Unfortunately, President Bush still insists on "success" and "victory" when no credible witness sees either in sight.

China to pour $127 bn to develop alternative energy source

China will invest about $127 billion in developing an alternative coal-based energy source to ease the country's dependence on oil imports, the Government has announced.

China will invest over 1 trillion yuan (about $127 billion), the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the top planning body said.

The project aims to produce 30 million tonnes of liquefied coal and 20 million tonnes of dimethyl ether by 2020.

A Bridge to Somewhere?

After spending much of the last several months thinking about the biofuels boom and its implications in preparation for this special series, we've come to a few conclusions.

Like other energy sources, biofuels have significant environmental liabilities. Boosters' rhetoric about "renewable energy" aside, topsoil -- from which biofuel feedstocks spring -- is not an easily renewable resource. It takes centuries under natural conditions to replace an inch of topsoil lost to erosion. Lester Brown of the Earth Policy Institute reckons that "36 percent of the world's cropland is now losing topsoil at a rate that is undermining its productivity."

Don't Let Iran Become Nuclear Power, Nobel Laureate Urges

European leaders must take the threat of Iran's nuclear program and its president's threat to "wipe Israel off the map" seriously, a group of French intellectuals said at a meeting in Paris Thursday. They presented a petition calling for sanctions against Iran.

Nobel peace prize winner Elie Wiesel, who presided over the meeting, pointed to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's conference this week questioning the Holocaust and his affirmed hatred of Israel. These were the reasons, he said, why Iran had to be stopped from developing nuclear weapons, which it could use against Israel.

International Energy Blather

Energy ministers from the world's largest oil consuming nations are meeting in Beijing tomorrow to see if they can agree on a coordinated response to high petroleum prices. Action items include diversification of energy resources, improving stockpile strategies, removing obstacles for investment in oil production, and promoting energy conservation. If past is prologue, any agreement will likely make things worse.

Suburbia: Running on Empty?

Robert Bruegmann argues in his new book that urban sprawl will continue because people like it, but reviewer James Howard Kunstler counters that the petro-dependent suburban era is just about finished.

Looking for Iraq's oil windfall

The country, which has one of the largest reserves in the world, could pump 6 million barrels a day or more. But that sure isn't happening now.

Is resistance to Iran futile?

Over the weekend, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad took to his bully pulpit yet again to bluster about his country's expanding nuclear program. He has elevated defiance of the West to an art.

He announced that Iran has begun installing 3,000 centrifuges, a huge expansion of its uranium enrichment program, bringing that nation closer to what is likely its ultimate goal: building a weapon. He also said the world was caving to Tehran's demands that it be allowed to continue its nuclear program. "Resistance of the Iranian nation in the past year forced them to retreat tens of steps over Iran's nuclear issue," he was quoted as saying.

Commodities can outrun inflation

Investors should invest in commodities as they represent an asset class that can beat inflation in the long term, say fund managers. Teera Phutrakul, executive chairman of Finansa Asset Management, said that when the stock market was volatile and interest rates were likely to decline, investors should diversify into commodities to lower risks. This year, local inflation is expected at around 4.8%.

Commodity returns outpace inflation and commodity demand is rising as people consume them every day. Higher demand comes from growing populations, mainly in India and China, he said.

OPEC Calls for 2nd Cut in Oil Output

OPEC said today that it planned to reduce its oil production by nearly 2 percent in February, the group’s second output cut in two months and its strongest signal yet that it aims to keep oil prices above $60 a barrel next year.

Six critical forecasts for 2007! (by Larry Edelson)

With the new year just about two weeks away, I think now is a good time to take stock of where we’ve been, where we are, and where the markets are going next year.

Despite recent gyrations, especially in natural resources prices, the positions in my Real Wealth Report continue to pay off handsomely overall.

Crude tops $62 as OPEC announces Feb. output cut

Crude-oil futures rose Thursday to their highest closing level in two weeks after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries formally agreed to cut output by another half a million a barrels a day, deferring implementation of the agreement until Feb. 1.

"The final decision by OPEC to cut production by 500,000 [barrels per day] 'by February 1st' allows some flexibility, and should satisfy most members," said John Kilduff, an analyst at Fimat USA, in a note to clients.

Australian Resource Sector shows no signs of slowing

According to a report released today by the Minerals Council of Australia, “Australian production of the bulk commodities (i.e. all types of coal and iron ore) is expected to increase approximately 9 per cent on average. Base metal production (copper, nickel etc) is expected to increase by approximately 10 per cent on average. Aluminium and alumina production is expected to increase by approximately 0.1 and 12.4 per cent respectively (all ABARE forecasts).”

US Ethanol Imports Continue Decline In October

Ethanol imports to the U.S. in October fell for a second consecutive month, according to preliminary data supplied by the federal Energy Information Administration.

October imports of the plant-derived gasoline additive stood at 1.505 million barrels, down from 2.194 million barrels in September, and down from the record-high 3.203 million barrels in August. The October level is also below June and July import levels.

Melting moments as climate change hits Russian winter

ACROSS the northern hemisphere - from Moscow to Canada - people are asking the same question: where's the winter?

In the latest worrying signs of climate change, it is already proving to be the least snowy winter for 350 years in Lapland.

Stuck in the Middle with Fuel

As its neighbors back biofuels, Central America gears up for business

Driving down either of El Salvador's two principal highways, you're almost sure to end up braking behind a pickup truck that's jammed with people standing shoulder to shoulder. Occasionally these rural taxis are new vehicles, but most are rickety, rusted, and running on antiquated engines and exhaust-spewing diesel.

Even though 48 percent of Salvadorans live below the poverty line, according to the United Nations Development Program, the huge influx of remittances from migrants in the United States means that more Salvadorans are buying cars, formerly a luxury reserved only for the very rich. And El Salvador is not alone: while Americans and Europeans are buying fewer SUVs and driving less, vehicle sales in most developing countries are on the rise. Toyota's 2006 first-quarter sales in Central America, for example, were up 9 percent from 2005.

Gold's rise points to inflation

The real annual inflation rate is closer to 8% than the 2% or 3% governments claim, a prominent U.S. economist said yesterday.

David Ranson, president of Boston-based H. C. Wainwright & Co. Economics Inc., defines inflation as a decline in the purchasing power of a national currency. He prefers that definition to flawed ones like the rising cost of living or increasing labour costs.

Oil giant rejects ‘peak oil’ view

Exxon Mobil on Tuesday lined up solidly against “peak oil” adherents, saying the estimated 4 trillion barrels of crude oil available for production will be more than enough to satisfy the estimated 60 percent increase in world demand for crude oil through 2030.

Such a view runs contrary to the peak oil argument, which warns that the world is near the peak production and any decline will weigh heavily in increased costs and geopolitical friction as demand continues to climb, particularly in China, India, Russia and the developing world.

Peak Natural Gas is On the Way

Decreasing oil supplies and increasing gas supplies are interdependent and interlinked, but this is not a case of "one goes up if the other goes down".

The reason is Peak Oil and a rapid shift away from 'conventional oil' to lighter fossil hydrocarbons in the oil-and-gas mix. Around 15 percent to 20 percent of world oil is today, in fact, gas-based and gas-related, described by terms such as NGL and condensates, that is natural gas liquids that are condensed, with the gas usually reinjected to maintain reservoir pressure or thrown away by venting or flaring

Days are numbered for 'cheap oil fiesta'

James Howard Kunstler is surprisingly cheerful for a man who has predicted the future and knows it will not be pretty.

"I certainly sleep well at night," Kunstler quipped in an interview from his home in Saratoga Springs, N.Y.

Mexico thirsty for tax revenue

Mexico is trying to make up for a projected shortfall in oil revenue by raising taxes on other liquids: colas and carbonated drinks.

A proposal by Felipe Calderon, the nation's new president, would impose a 5 percent levy on soft drinks and an additional 15 percent on cigarettes to raise $1 billion next year. With Mexico's oil production falling and its economy slowing, Calderon's administration is scrambling to find additional sources of revenue. Calderon said last week he would seek to impose the taxes as part of his 2007 budget.

What if this time isn't different?

In May, we wrote about why we believe this time is different compared to the 1970s/1980s boom-to-bust cycle. There were five main reasons why we believe this is the case, but the most crucial factor is our outlook for oil prices. In this article, we examine the outlook under the assumption that oil prices return to their historical average.

The Peak Oil Crisis: EIA -- The greatest failure of them all?

For those of you who don't follow such things, there exists down on Independence Avenue a semi-autonomous little organization known as the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Created by Congress back in 1977, its mission “is to provide policy-independent data, forecasts, and analyses to promote sound policy making, efficient markets, and public understanding regarding energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment." In short, they keep track of our energy supplies and make forecasts about their future.

The Right to Pursue Powerdown: Seeking alternative lifestyles post-peak

Throughout history most societies have spawned groups within them that chose not to follow the norms and dictates of the mainstream society of which they were a part. Very often it is religious differences of some type that set these groups apart, e.g. Quakers, Shakers, Mennonites, Amish, Doukhobors, Acadians, Huguenots, Mormons, Christians in the Roman Empire and more. Mainstream cultures have never been very tolerant of such so-called "dissidents".

Crude Oil Inventories Decline

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories dropped by 4.3 million barrels compared to the previous week. However, at 335.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories remain well above the upper end of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories inched lower by 0.1 million barrels last week, and are below the lower end of the average range.

OPEC sentiment for new production cuts ebbs, but could still tighten oil taps

OPEC's president and oil powerhouse Saudi Arabia stepped back from direct calls to slash output Wednesday, the eve of the group's year-end meeting, in potential good news for consumers worldwide.

But some oil ministers stood firm in demanding new cuts to shore up prices. That left open prospects for Thursday that range from keeping the status quo to agreement on additional cutbacks two months after deciding on reductions of 1.2 million barrels a day - or something in between such as deferral of any decision until early next year.

Venezuela advocates OPEC output cut of 500,000 bpd

The Venezuelan Minister of Energy and Petroleum Rafael Ramírez Wednesday in Abuja said Caracas is to endorse cutting the overall oil supply of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) by 500,000 bpd.

"Venezuela is calling for production cut of 500,000 bpd," Ramírez told reporters upon his arrival in the Nigerian capital city to attend an OPEC meeting on Thursday, Efe reported.

US staying the course for Big Oil in Iraq

Washington at large and President George W Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney in particular may apply every contortionist trick in the geopolitical book to save their skins in Iraq - and the reasons are not entirely political.

In addition to the recently released report by the Iraq Study Group, any other Washington establishment report - Pentagon, State Department, think-tanks - considered by the White House

Iran expanding nuclear program

Iran has begun installing 3,000 centrifuges in an expansion of its uranium enrichment program that brings the nation significantly closer to large-scale production of nuclear fuel, the president said Saturday.
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad also said the international community was caving in to Tehran's demands to continue its nuclear program.

After Iran- Are Arab Nuclear Efforts Underway?

One of the greatest risks associated with Iran’s determined drive to acquire a nuclear weapons capability is that it will spark further nuclear proliferation in the region. According to recent reports, six new states in the Middle East are already considering developing nuclear programs. The oil-rich Arab Gulf states consider starting a joint nuclear program for peaceful purposes. Issued after a two-day meeting of the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council, the statement said the group "commissioned a study" on setting up "a common program in the area of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes," which would abide by international standards and laws.

Fed puts brake on US rate cut expectations

The Federal Reserve appeared last night to try to temper financial markets expectations' that the recent plunge in US growth would necessarily prompt a swift cut in interest rates in the world's largest economy.

The commodity cycle

Have the wheels come off the commodity cycle? The paths taken by gold, oil, copper and coal prices are supposed to be simple to forecast. Increased demand leads to higher prices, inviting new exploration and investment...which increases supply just in time for consumers to lose their appetite thanks to those higher prices.

Angolan oil output to peak in 2011 — bank

ANGOLAN oil production is set to peak in 2011 at 2,6-million barrels a day, and begin to decline from 2012, according to the World Bank.

“According to our estimates, in the absence of new discoveries, production is expected to start declining from 2012 onwards,” World Bank economist Francisco Carneiro said yesterday.

Exxon's latest forecast sees coal use rising again

In contrast with other Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) energy forecasts in recent years, the company's projection outlined Tuesday sees comparatively greater use of coal compared with natural gas over the next 25 years.

Nine billion or bust!

The best current guess is that the world's population will peak at 9.2 billion around the year 2075. The bulk of that growth is expected to occur before 2050. To put that into a little perspective, my 12-year-old daughter's life is likely to encompass the most critical stretch in humanity's history on this planet -- that period in which we find out whether the earth can sustainably support our maximum population.

Exxon sees oil use, carbon emissions soaring

The world's largest energy company says demand for fossil fuels will soar; sees little hope for corn-based ethanol.

The Approaching Liquid Fuel Crisis

The famous -- or infamous, depending on how you view the peak oil 'theory' -- Hirsch Report was the first federal gov't sponsored study to accept the notion that the world is consuming more oil than it's now finding, and that sooner or later, society is going to demand more oil than the planet can produce from both conventional and unconventional sources. When that happens, the economic consequences will be profound.

Like pyramids, fossil fuels will become part of history

''Under some scenarios of population growth and resource utilization, the peak of all fossil fuel use will occur in the 2100s and then decline to near zero between 2300 and 2800.''

''May you be born in interesting times'' is an old Chinese curse or blessing, depending on how you view it. In all of recorded history, who wasn't?

Baker-Hamilton report redoubles nuclear arms race in the Middle East

If there was any doubt about how Sunni Arab states see Iranian nuclear ambitions, it was cleared up by a declaration by the Gulf Cooperation Council that they intend to pursue nuclear power.

It is not a threat," said Prince Saud al-Faisal, Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister. "It is an announcement so that there will be no misinterpretation for what we are doing."

Mexico hopes tax on soda will refill lost oil revenue

Mexico is trying to make up for a projected shortfall in oil revenue by raising taxes on other quick-fix liquids: colas and carbonated drinks.

A proposal by the nation's new President Felipe Calderon would impose a 5% levy on soft drinks — and an additional 15% on cigarettes — to raise $1 billion next year. With Mexico's oil production falling and its economy slowing, Calderon's administration is scrambling to find additional sources of revenue. Calderon said last week that he would seek to impose the new taxes as part of his 2007 budget.

US choses new site to expand emergency oil reserve

The U.S. Energy Department said on Friday it had chosen a new storage site in Mississippi to hold about 160 million barrels of oil as part of the government's plan to expand the nation's emergency petroleum stockpile and protect the country from supply disruptions.

The new site will be a group of salt domes in the town of Richton, in southeastern Mississippi. Oil will be brought to the site by pipeline from Pascagoula along the Gulf Coast. The department said because the site was located inland, it would be less vulnerable to hurricanes.

Commodities Bull Run To Last Until 2014-2022

Based on historical cyclical market patterns, the current commodity bull run could last until 2014-2022, aping the bear market in the 1980s and 1990s, commodity investment expert Jim Rogers said Tuesday.

Dwindling resource of fuel for a solid future?

Could reserves of North Sea oil support an independent Scotland? SNP case rests upon 'oil fund' similar to that operational in Norway Necessity for boundaries to be drawn could cause problems

Peter Michaelson: Al Gore at the Gate

Al Gore has graduated from making movies to making revolutions. He is about to incite the masses on behalf of his earth out of balance. As he announced this weekend, he plans to launch a global-warming political movement that will seek a "freeze" on carbon emissions. With Gore in the vanguard, a people-powered initiative can succeed.

EIA Sees Oil Price Up Without OPEC Cut

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