MISSION ACCOMPLISHED / WE GOT THE OIL

George W Bush and Dick Cheney might as well declare MISSION ACCOMPLISHED. With half a trillion dollars spent, half a million Iraqis killed, 3200 Americans killed and over 40,000 maimed for life, it's all come down to this ~ WE GOT THE OIL : Allen L Roland

The illegal war and occupation of Iraq was always about OIL and now the big sting is there for all Americans to see ~ we've been had big time fellow Americans and Cheney, Bush and all their Big Oil executive cronies are grinning from ear to ear.

Worldwide stock markets can decline more than 80% in the next twenty years as economies in US, India and China collapse

The liquidity drove these markets higher, the lack of it will drive these markets down too. The bulls came out with a trumpet and declared the correction of 3% in Dow is over. Let us analyze what is happening.

Who are these analysts? These are people either working for big financial institutions or people with lots of inherited wealth? How can they ever be correct6? They never even walk the main streets. The live and dream in the Wall Street.

Oil production could delay its peak - 2007-02-28

Amid debate, Professor Barazangi asserts that world oil production could delay its peak 'way ahead into the future'

Peak oil production in the Middle East's Arabian/Persian Gulf region could be delayed if oil companies would invest more heavily in drilling and extraction technologies and push to explore new sites.

Major Top in Gold this Year ? - Elliott 5th Wave Peak ?

Gold and silver were caught in the downdraft of selling on the stock exchanges today but having surged from last October's lows, a respite was always looming as the price increased.

However, the subject of this article is not the short-term movement of gold but where the next major sell point will be. There are various commentaries suggesting that gold will move fairly easily into quadruple digits with some breath to spare. I agree with these analysts that gold will move into four figures and then some. The only argument is when?

Toyota Venezuela to halt March ops on currency woes

Toyota's Venezuela unit will halt production for 15 days beginning March 1 because the government has not sold it enough dollars to import the components it needs, a company executive told Reuters.

The government of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has maintained strict currency controls since 2003 as part of his self-styled socialist revolution that has broadened government involvement in all aspects of the OPEC nation's economy.

Restraint is what's needed, not more ethanol plants

Over the past several months, when oil was at $60 a barrel and above, the ethanol industry took off. Ethanol plants are in construction all over the Corn Belt, including Indiana. Despite the current gasoline prices, the ethanol industry continues its construction boom.

Pemex Reports Fourth-Quarter Loss as Sales Drop

Petroleos Mexicanos, Mexico's state- owned oil monopoly, reported a fourth-quarter loss as sales declined because of lower production.

Pemex, as the Mexico City company is known, had a loss of 6.9 billion pesos ($635 million) compared with a loss of 76 billion pesos a year earlier, according to a Mexican stock exchange report. Sales fell 11 percent to 236 billion pesos. Average daily output slid 6 percent to 3.1 million barrels.

CRETNEY BACKS RENEWABLE ENERGY PLANS

DAVID Cretney, Minister for the Department of Trade and Industry, has said wind farms and tidal projects offer 'the best potential' as a renewable energy source for the Island.

Speaking at last week's Energy Efficiency exhibition at the Villa Marina, Mr Cretney said this was the most appropriate way forward to provide renewable energy on 'a reliable, cost-effective basis'.

Ethanol demand could mean higher food prices

Soaring demand for ethanol will likely mean higher prices at grocery stores for products from soft drinks to broiler chickens, but the increases may be too small for most consumers to notice.

In the past six months, the rush to produce more corn-based ethanol has doubled the grain's value, increasing costs for foods that include corn as an ingredient or rely on it as animal feed.

U.S. seen short of Bush's ethanol plan

The U.S. government's top energy forecaster said on Wednesday that fuel ethanol production in a decade will fall short of what President George W. Bush says is needed to help cut America's oil imports.

In his State of the Union speech to Congress last month, Bush said the country should increase its production of ethanol and alternatives fuels to 35 billion gallons by 2017.

New evidence that global warming fuels stronger Atlantic hurricanes

Atmospheric scientists have uncovered fresh evidence to support the hotly debated theory that global warming has contributed to the emergence of stronger hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean.

The unsettling trend is confined to the Atlantic, however, and does not hold up in any of the world's other oceans, researchers have also found.

Global Warming a scientific fraud says Aussie author

Even as a beaming and tuxedoed Al Gore was picking up his Oscar for Best Documentary of the year, greenhouse skeptics were planning to congregate in Canberra, Australia for the release of a new book claiming that environmentalism is the new religion.

In the land of Crocodile Dundee, it is still safe for skeptics to openly congregate, risk of retaliation notwithstanding. In North America, questioning the science of global warming can get you outed by lefty politicians for purportedly being on the payroll of the big oil companies.

Pickens: Oil to $70, But Not Confident

T. Boone Pickens, who oversees more than $4 billion in assets as chairman of BP Capital LLC, said in an interview with Bloomberg that he is forecasting oil will average $70 a barrel this year, but he's "not all that confident

Dollar, euro plunge against the yen

The dollar suffered its sharpest intraday fall for a single global session in over a year versus the yen Tuesday as investors unwound carry trade positions against a background of heightened risk aversion.

The dollar's plunge focused on the Japanese currency, with only moderate losses against the euro. At one point, the dollar had fallen more than three yen from day-earlier levels to bottom out at 117.50 yen, but recovered part of those losses as U.S. trading wound down.

Peak Platinum, Perhaps?

The very small club of platinum group metals producers and traders is currently basking in the warmth of sustained high prices for their highest volume products, platinum and palladium. This is due to the public perception that as more and more cars and trucks are built with internal combustion engines (ICEs), the demand for platinum group metals (PGMs) for emission control catalysts and particulate filters will increase ahead of supply.

In addition the public has been led to believe that even if there is ultimately a “hydrogen fuelled energy” economy in place of our current petroleum fuelled one the vehicles of that future will be powered by mobile fuel cells that will transform hydrogen to electricity that will be used indirectly, through batteries or directly by connection to electric motors attached to the wheels.

Bullish about bullion

Soaring gold prices have led to a new trend among buyers, who are now buying more bullion in the form of coins.

Malaysian Indian Goldsmith and Jewellers Association adviser N.P. Raman said, “Many regular buyers are now beginning to look at gold purely as a financial asset, adding to their investment portfolio.

“Many women now choose to buy gold coins or even bars as investment, instead of jewellery as jewellery adds 25% to 30 % to the cost, to cover craftsmanship,” he said.

Postal regulators back 'forever' stamp

Say goodbye to those pesky 1- and 2-cent stamps that used to clutter up desks and purses every time the price of mailing a letter went up.

A new "forever" stamp — good for mailing a letter no matter how much rates rise — was recommended Monday by the independent Postal Regulatory Commission. The panel also called for a 2-cent increase in first-class rates to 41 cents, a penny less than the post office had sought.

Venezuela to seize foreign oil projects

President Hugo Chavez ordered by decree on Monday the takeover of oil projects run by foreign oil companies in Venezuela's Orinoco River region.

Chavez had previously announced the government's intention to take a majority stake by May 1 in four heavy oil-upgrading projects run by British Petroleum PLC, Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp., ConocoPhillips Co., Total SA and Statoil ASA.

Central banks 'seek riskier assets'

Central banks are becoming more active managers of their burgeoning foreign exchange reserves, seeking to increase the yield on their portfolios, according to a survey of reserve managers of the world's central banks published today.

Normally a secretive bunch owing to the conservatism of central banks and the scale of their investments, reserve managers told the journal Central Banking of rising pressures to provide their governments with decent returns in a low-yield environment.

Stock Sell-Off in China Hits Wall Street

A plunge in Chinese stocks rippled across global markets yesterday, triggering a massive wave of selling in the United States that sent the Dow Jones industrial average down 3.3 percent, or 416 points, its biggest decline since March 2003.

The news from Asia sparked the initial sell-off, but a confluence of other events, including news of rising real estate loan delinquencies, a surprisingly weak manufacturing report and a bombing near Vice President Cheney in Afghanistan, made an already difficult day worse.

Iran 'can attack anywhere'

If the US were to attack Iran, it would retaliate immediately and could attack anywhere, Tehran warned yesterday.

"Should the US make the mistake of attacking Iran, I am certain that the Iranian people will teach them a good lesson," Iran's Ambassador to Moscow Gholamreza Ansari said in Moscow.

Japan, Canada to Start Test-Production of Frozen Natural Gas

Japan's government said it will start test production of frozen natural gas in Canada's permafrost area as part of Japan's 16-year project to siphon gas from methane hydrate, a form of the fuel known as gas crystals.

State-run Japan Oil, Gas, and Metals Corp. and Canada's natural resources ministry on Feb. 23 drilled a test well inside the Arctic Circle, and plan in March to start extracting gas from the hydrates, an ice-like form of methane trapped in oxygen and hydrogen, the state-controlled company said in a statement.

Nigeria's Oil Minister says OPEC output likely to stay steady next month

OPEC members are likely to maintain current output levels next month, Nigeria's Oil Minister said Tuesday.

"There is a likelihood that the current production level will be maintained" at the March 15 OPEC meeting, Edmund Daukoru said.

But he warned that "markets are very dynamic. I can understand the view that there should be no cut, but there is always an (uncertainty) factor."

Now is the time for better energy policy

War in the Middle East, climate change and high energy costs have caused policy makers and the public to look for better energy policy.

It came when experts say world oil production peaked, offering barely 100 years of oil left and when parts of the Artic Circle were breaking away because of warming temperatures caused by excessive carbon in the atmosphere.

Part 1 Of A 2 Part Series: Global Warming--Fact, Fiction And Political Endgame

This is the first part of a two-part series. The second part will run in tomorrow's paper.

Nobel Peace Prize nominee, Albert Arnold Gore, was the toast of Hollywood at this weekend's self-congratulatory soiree known as the Academy Awards.
Gore, whose failure to carry his "home" state of Tennessee cost him the 2000 presidential election, has recast himself as the populist pope of eco-theology and the titular head of the green movement's developmentally arrested legions.

Top Climate Scientist on How to Stop Global Warming: Quit Burning Coal

One of the world's top climate scientists called for an end to building new coal-fired power plants in the United States because of their huge role in spewing out greenhouse gases that contribute to global warming.

In the next decade of so, 159 coal-fired power plants are scheduled to be built, generating enough power for about 96 million homes, according to a study last month by the U.S. Department of Energy.

Oil prices will not fall considerably thanks to demand, says Forbes

Editor-in-chief of Forbes magazine Steve Forbes has said he does not think oil price will fall considerably given the increasing demand for energy in the US and emerging powers China and India.

“The demand is growing in the world’s largest energy consumer, United States and in China and India, which are rapidly developing.

Stocks Have Worst Day Since 9/11 Attacks

Stocks had their worst day of trading since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks Tuesday, hurtling the Dow Jones industrials down more than 400 points on a worldwide tide of concern that the U.S. and Chinese economies are stumbling and that share prices have become overinflated.

Is Attacking Iran Really "Bonkers"?

"The idea that there's a military solution is absolutely bonkers." -- Mohamed ElBaradei

When you hear a word like "bonkers" coming from the mouth of a Nobel laureate, you know he's at wit's end.
The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is not the only one afraid the US will attack Iran. Even some Republicans are on red alert. According to a resolution Representative Walter Jones (NC) has introduced to the House, it's "crystal clear" that the authority Congress granted the administration to wage war on Iraq wasn't one-size-fits-all. If Bush & Co. want to attack Iran, they've got to fill out new forms and go to the back of the line again.

Oil Glut Hidden by Rig Dearth Makes Drillers Good Bet

The professionals most familiar with the so-called oil shortage know there's an estimated 3 trillion barrels under land and sea. That's why they're making their biggest bets in drilling rigs where the scarcity is no illusion.

Oil drillers ``are the most attractive way to go,'' said Don Hodges, who holds about 160,000 shares of Transocean Inc. and about 120,000 shares of GlobalSantaFe Corp. among the $1.1 billion managed by Dallas-based Hodges Capital Management. ``There is a shortage, it takes time to build one and it takes a lot of money. Their earnings are going to go up every year for the foreseeable future.''

Peak Oil: An Update

RTH hasn't published much about the peak oil hypothesis recently; not because we've given up on the theory, but because not much has happened recently to cause us to revise our assessment of the situation.

The Oil Drum just analyzed the latest data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), and their graph of total world production is instructive:

Relocalisation - acting locally on global issues

The last time I encountered localism was in the 1990s, when a number of rural towns launched “buy local” or “buy Australian” campaigns in an attempt to stem the bleed of money to distant cities and corporations. Now the idea has been revived, but for a very different reason.

Today’s neo-localism is a response to global warming and the idea that global oil supplies will, within 10 to 20 years (if they haven’t already), reach their maximum production. After that happens, peak oil aficionados say that the price of everything that uses oil in any way - and that’s most things, even it is only for transport - will rise substantially. The implications for our oil dependent society, they say, are profound.

The Price of Gold: We could see a repeat of 1979

“You can never really know about these things,” said a guest at our beach shack on Saturday night. Our friend runs an investment fund, mostly family money and mostly following a macro-economic analysis.

“There is clearly a bubble in liquidity. But when they are throwing a big party like this you don’t like to miss it. We pulled out of Russia too early. We could have made a lot more money by sticking around a bit longer. Now, we’re in Chinese stocks, oil, and tourism. And cash. We’ve increased our cash to 25%. We’re definitely worried that this thing is going to come to an end. And when it does, those Chinese stocks will take a beating. But we don’t invest for the short term. We’re looking 10 years ahead. And what we see 10 years ahead is higher prices on Chinese shares, higher energy prices, and a real boom in tourism in many places.

Venezuela to Seize Foreign Oil Projects

President Hugo Chavez ordered by decree on Monday the takeover of oil projects run by foreign oil companies in Venezuela's Orinoco River region.

Chavez had previously announced the government's intention to take a majority stake by May 1 in four heavy oil-upgrading projects run by British Petroleum PLC, Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp., ConocoPhillips Co., Total SA and Statoil ASA.

He said Monday that has decreed a law to proceed with the nationalizations that will see state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA, or PDVSA, taking at least a 60 percent stake in the projects.

Gold Rises; Higher Energy Costs Spur Demand for Inflation Hedge

Gold in New York rose, extending a rally to a nine-month high, as climbing energy costs boosted the appeal of the precious metal as a hedge against inflation.

Gold sometimes moves in the same direction as crude oil, which last week rose above $61 a barrel for the first time this year. Gold has more than doubled and oil has almost tripled in the past five years.

'End of Oil' author to speak at Embry-Riddle

"Every 24 hours," journalist Paul Roberts writes, "we burn 81 million barrels of crude."

For oil producers, it's getting more difficult to locate the large fields where oil can be cheaply pumped. So high prices will likely continue, ultimately leading to change -- be it the rise of alternative fuels or a scaling back of our consumptive practices, says Roberts, author of "The End of Oil," a celebrated 2004 book on the subject.

One of the world's top scientists on global warming called for the United States to stop building coal-fired power plants and eventually bulldoze olde

Last week, the Federal Reserve governor Ben Bernanke gave a strong signal that the central bank’s key rate would remain unchanged during the coming months. Bernanke characterized the risks hovering over the U.S. economy as “balanced” between upside and downside risks.

The Federal Reserve appears comforted by signs of stabilization in the U.S. housing market.

However default rates are increasing among higher risk mortgage borrowers. Furthermore, the proportion of banks tightening mortgage credit is at its highest level since 1991.

Top global warming scientist calls for moratorium on new coal power plants

One of the world's top scientists on global warming called for the United States to stop building coal-fired power plants and eventually bulldoze older generators that do not capture and bury greenhouse gases.

But 159 coal-fired power plants are scheduled to be built in the next decade or so, generating enough power for about 96 million homes, according to a study last month by the U.S. Department of Energy.

Need For A Balancing Act: Reducing Oil Dependence Without Triggering A Global Crisis

Three facts underscore the importance of the debate about the future of oil: oil is a finite resource; oil is one of the major anthropogenic sources of carbon dioxide; and the world economy is heavily dependent on oil, especially in the transportation sector. The most important questions are: How do we balance depletion, the environment, and economic growth – remembering that “we” includes human beings in oil-exporting countries as well as those in oil-consuming countries? Will the transition to new energy sources be seamless and easy, for oil-exporters as well as for oil-importers? How will oil-producing countries react to the non-market based efforts of oil-consuming countries to reduce their dependence on oil? Should oil-producing and oil-consuming countries cooperate to make the transition to new energy sources as painless as possible for all parties? Will these efforts at cooperation succeed in the long run if they are not market-based efforts?

The Oil Depletion Protocol: An Interview with Richard Heinberg

These days, Richard Heinberg is an amazingly busy man. In addition to his teaching duties at the New College of California and his ongoing essays and lectures on peak oil, he has been promoting an idea he first heard from Colin Campbell about a simple protocol that he believes will help countries to prepare for, and adjust to, the coming declines in global oil production.

Ctrl Bks Raise Euro, Cut Dollar Share Of Reserves -CBP Survey

The euro made small gains as a reserve currency at the expense of the U.S. dollar in the final months of 2006, while gold is set to make a comeback as a reserve asset, a survey by Central Banking Publications showed Monday.

Although respondents to the confidential survey don't appear to have included the People's Bank of China or the Bank of Japan - which hold the world's largest foreign exchange reserves - they do account for 30% of total reserves held worldwide, or $1.5 trillion, CBP said. Of the 47 central banks that responded by December to the survey, 21 of them, managing reservesof $630 billion, said they had increased the share of their reserves held as euros, and 15 of thosesaid they had done so at the expense of the dollar.

Weekly Energy Briefs from Peak Oil Review

• The 11 OPEC members subject to quotas have reduced their output by about 800,000 barrels/day, compared to their commitment to cut production by 1.7 million b/d, according toe the latest Bloomberg data. Total production by the OPEC 11 is down 2.7 percent to 28.57 mbd.
• Last week Britain released the latest national energy statistics through the end of 2006. Total production was 196.1 million tons of oil equivalent, 9.0 per cent lower than in 2005. Within this, production of petroleum fell by 9.3 percent, production of natural gas fell by 9.1 percent and production of coal fell by 8.3 percent.
• Two Japanese trading houses have signed a 15-year loan contract with the Venezuelan state-run oil company under which the two trading houses will loan Venezuela $3.5 billion. The Japanese will receive crude oil and oil products as repayment.
• The Dubai Mercantile Exchange will launch three crude futures contracts on May 1st
• Russia’s Economy Ministry now forecasts the country’s GDP will probably expand 6.05 percent this year, down from 6.2 percent previously forecast. President Putin has urged the country’s largest companies to do more to lessen Russia’s reliance on raw materials exports.
• The American Gas Association has shifted its stance on federal climate policy to conditionally support federal action to cut greenhouse gas emissions.
• Alaska Natives and environmental groups are protesting Shell’s plan to start exploration drilling in the Beaufort Sea. The groups say the US should have allowed a more thorough public evaluation of the potential impact before allowing any drilling.
• The CEO of the Italian oil company Eni said his company lost 76,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day in 2006 from the Venezuelan government's seizure of the Dacion field and disruptions in Nigeria from militant attacks. ENI has asked the World Bank to arbitrate its dispute with Venezuela over the Dacion oilfield that was seized by Caracas last year.
• Iraq is losing up to 400,000 b/d of production due to attacks targeting its oil infrastructure according to a senior oil ministry official. There were 159 major attacks on oil installations in 2006, about one attack every other day. Most of the attacks targeted the country’s pipelines
• The deadline for natural gas to reach Ghana to power Ghana’s new Aboadze Thermal Plant and other energy generation plants will not be met because of the militants in the Niger Delta who have repeatedly vandalized the Escravos pipeline. The project was designed to supply gas from Nigeria to Benin, Togo and Ghana and ultimately Cote D'Ivoire,
• Energy Secretary Bodman said efforts to expand the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve will not drive up oil prices, because the quantities involved will be "inconsequential" to the world market. The Energy Department has $500 million available for buying oil and will start its purchases this spring.
• A committee of Canada’s House of Commons was told last week that the tar sands could be brought into compliance with Kyoto emissions targets at a cost of about $1 per barrel. The estimate put forward by the Pembina Institute suggests that greenhouse emissions could be curbed without compromising profitability.
• Shell wants to build temporary living quarters for 600 workers near its drilling site in Rio Blanco County, Colorado as it increases oil shale operations on the Western Slope.
• Pemex announced that its crude oil production picked up in January after a sharp drop in December. The company produced 3.14 million barrels a day of crude oil last month, up from 2.98 million b/d in December but down from 3.37 million b/d in January 2006.
• Mexico suffered a much bigger-than-expected trade deficit in January as oil and auto parts exports fell sharply. In January 2006 Mexico had a trade surplus of $694 million as compared to a deficit of $1.7 billion in January 2007.
• Ecuador will rejoin OPEC in the second quarter of this year according to Energy Minister Acosta. South America's fifth largest oil producer quit OPEC in 1992. It exports about 70% of its oil production, which late last year was 516,000 b/d.
• Imperial Oil of Canada has begun rationing gasoline and diesel fuel at its retail stations in Ontario, as the fire at the company's Nanticoke refinery and a railroad strike has tightened supplies. Gasoline and diesel supplies are being moved into Canada from the US to make up for the difference

Fed to Stay on Hold Through 2007, Business Economists Forecast

Resilient U.S. economic growth will keep inflation from fading and persuade Federal Reserve policy makers to leave interest rates unchanged this year, according to a survey by the National Association for Business Economics.

The forecast, based on the median of 47 estimates, is a shift from the group's November survey in which economists projected the Fed would start cutting rates in the second half of 2007. The central bank will drop its target rate in the first quarter of 2008, according to the poll taken Jan. 29 to Feb. 13.

'No brakes' on Iran nuclear drive

IRANIAN President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has said that there is no stopping his country's nuclear program, comparing it to a train with no brakes, as as the United Nations Security council meets this week to discuss further sanctions.

One of his deputy foreign ministers is also reported as warning that the country is ready for any scenario it its nuclear row with the West, “even for war” as the country announced it had launched a rocket into space.

Gold, Silver Rise to 9-Month High on Demand for Inflation Hedge

Gold and silver climbed to nine- month highs as a rally in commodity prices spurred demand for precious metals as a hedge against inflation.

Investment in exchange-traded funds for gold rose 5.4 percent this year amid gains in commodities including natural gas, nickel, corn and soybeans. The Reuters-Jefferies CRB Commodity Price Index is the highest since Dec. 8 as oil rose to the highest price this year and copper climbed for a third day.

International Energy Agency revises oil demand upwards

The International Energy Agency's monthly report for January revised this year's oil demand forecasts.

The upward revision comes on expected increased demand in China and the Caspian regions. With the revision, the IEA anticipates the 2007 world demand to increase by 1.8 percent.

On the supply side, the report indicates that OPEC (minus Angola) produced less in January from one month earlier. However, these production cuts were offset by higher output from the former Soviet Union. In fact, the world oil supply has increased by 175,000 barrels per day in January to a new total of 85.5 million barrels per day. Lastly, because of the new shift of Angolan production into OPEC's numbers, there was large downward revision to non-OPEC production for 2007.

UK House Prices continue to Rise whilst the US Housing Market Slumps

The UK housing market has proved remarkably resilient by notching up a further gain for January of 1.3% (Halifax) , whilst the US Housing market continues to go from bad to worse as the sub prime mortgages time bomb goes off, resulting in a slump that looks set to be the worst since the Great Depression of the 1930's.

Scramble for Iraq's oil begins as troops start to pull out

We are about to find out if the invasion of Iraq really was a war for oil. The country is on the verge of passing a petroleum law, which will set down rules for investing in its oil industry. That will set off a race among the foreign oil giants, scrambling for their slice of Iraq's vast oil riches. Britain's two world-leading oil companies, BP and Shell, both say they want to enter Iraq. Exxon, ConocoPhillips, Total, Russia's Lukoil and the Chinese will also form part of the rush.

Iran: caught in US gunsights

America bolsters its military strength in the Gulf. Yet Iran is defiant. Time for diplomacy is running out. So, will this be a battle of wills or armies for presidents Bush and Ahmadinejad?

A Few Rambles On The Virtues Of Living In Town

I just got back from the store where I picked up a newspaper and some fresh fruit. Along the way I made a quick stop at the bank where I retrieved some money from the ATM. Since I was just across from the post office, I picked up my mail. And on the way home, I stopped at the café to get a cup of coffee and visit with a friend.

The “trip” to town was a nice break from sitting in front of a computer and gave me a chance to even socialize a bit. It was possible for me to do all these things without once getting in my vehicle because I live in town. In fact, all the places I visited are within a few blocks of my home.

Oil prices ‘to remain over $65 this year’

OIL market is set to witness sustained higher prices of $66 to $75 this year as demand of 1.7mn bpd (barrels per day) may outpace non-Opec (Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries) supply and the spare capacity addition, according to a forecast.

Saudi Oil Minister says no further adjustments to production necessary

Saudi Oil Minister Ali Naimi has said that the world oil market is now better balanced and that if prices are maintained at approximately the current levels, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will not make any adjustments to production levels at their forthcoming meeting in March.

How global warming goes against the grain

Experts worry food shortages triggered by crop devastation are a more immediate threat than flooding, MARTIN

Mexico Peso Bonds Plunge on Central Bank Interest Rate Concerns

Mexico's peso-denominated bonds plunged, pushing yields up the most in two months, after the central bank said it is prepared to raise interest rates to stem inflation.

Bonds of all maturities and the currency tumbled after Banco de Mexico said there is a ``risk'' inflation may accelerate. Increases in the inflation rate may boost companies' and workers' inflation expectations, the bank said. Quickening inflation subtracts from the value of a bond's fixed payments.

Oil prices driving U.S. military to alternative energy sources

In the next few months, U.S. troops at an outpost somewhere in Iraq will unpack a mini power station capable of producing electricity from both solar and wind sources.

It's hoped that the station, with its wind turbines and huge solar panels, will provide enough electricity for soldiers to cut back their reliance on the base's huge diesel-powered generators that operate around the clock.

Did Japan really have deflation?

Sequel to gasoline

Peak oil. Heard about it?

It is supposedly the biggest nightmare of our times - or, at least, it's going to be.

It's the point when the world's petroleum production maxes out and then starts declining. You know: beginning of the end of the world economy….

Climate Change, Peak Oil And Nuclear War

Damocles had one life threatening sword hanging by a thread over his head. We have three:

The awakening public now know that climate change is real and human caused but still grossly underestimate the seriousness of the danger, the increasing probability of extinction, and how close and insidious this danger is - runaway climate change, the threshold of which, with carbon cycle time lags, we are close to if not upon.

Cheney warns on Iran's nuclear ambition

Vice President Dick Cheney said on Saturday that the United States and its allies must not allow Iran to become a nuclear power and raised concerns about Tehran's actions and "inflammatory" rhetoric.

The stern comments from Cheney, who is known for his hawkish views, followed Tehran's refusal to heed a U.N. deadline to halt uranium enrichment and a vow by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to stand up to the rest of the world and not show weakness by acceding to the West's demands.

Russia, China picking up where OPEC is leaving off

If gasoline prices have you muttering curses at OPEC during each fill-up, maybe you should just say nyet.

The big-time producers in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries have plenty of clout, but with global oil output barely covering demand, countries outside the cartel are wielding more sway, affecting the price of oil and everything made from it.

Peak Performance?

Peter Odell, one of the most astute, life-long observers of global oil scene, calls them "peak-oilers." Some of them were quite unhappy when I pointed out (in Energy at the Crossroads, in these pages, and in Worldwatch in January 2006) their propensity for wholesaling catastrophic scenarios of the world once the global oil production peaks and begins to decline. But how else can one label such writings as Richard C. Duncan's "Olduvai theory" according to which the declining oil extraction will plunge humanity into life comparable to that experienced by some of the first primitive hominids who inhabited that famous Kenyan gorge some 2.5 million years ago?

Subprime loans slide with housing market

Homeowners with troubled credit histories are finding it harder to get mortgages or refinance homes because softening in the housing market is making lenders less likely to handle riskier loans.

Several lenders of subprime mortgages -- used primarily for home equity loans and for people with spotty credit -- have shown signs of trouble after the housing bubble popped and more homeowners began defaulting high-interest mortgages.

From Pluto, U.S. Inflation Is Near 10%: Caroline Baum

Every once in a while, I write something that inspires readers. The inspiration is usually to tell me what a knucklehead I am.

Earlier this week, a column on inflation -- what it is (a monetary phenomenon) versus how the Federal Reserve talks about it (seemingly exogenous price increases) -- prompted the ``regulars'' to check in.

Feel Depression Coming On? We've Got Stocks for You

MAYBE IT'S THE February blahs, the short days and the endless slush. Or maybe it's the necrophilia dominating the cable news, with occasional interruptions from Baghdad.

I suppose there's even a small chance that my mood's been affected by the performance of the U.S. economy, which is nowhere near as strong as the statistics made it appear last month. Resilient, sure. Fundamentally sound, absolutely. But strong? Not quite, not with growth mired on the wrong side of 2.5% and inflation higher than the Fed would like.

Pemex to Get More Budget Control Under Senate Bill

Petroleos Mexicanos, Mexico's state- run oil company, would gain more control over its budget and pay reduced taxes under a 10-part energy bill the Senate Energy Committee plans to approve.

The committee will probably pass by a wide margin most of the 10 sections of the legislation this year, said Francisco Labastida, president of the panel and a former energy minister.

U.S. Current-Account Deficit Deserves Some Noise: John M. Berry

To read the annual Economic Report of the President, one would think the whopping U.S. current- account deficit is no more than a minor bookkeeping entry of little importance to the future of the U.S. economy.

Yes, in the fourth quarter of 2005 the current-account deficit jumped to 7 percent of gross domestic product because of a surge in oil imports, though it came down a bit last year, says the 2007 report released by the president's Council of Economic Advisers on Feb. 12.

Demonization and Competition in the Final Years of the Age of Abundant Oil

How do you change a government that was democratically elected in a non-enemy State such as Venezuela or Iran? You demonize the leadership. You lie. You fabricate. You embellish."

Weekly Petroleum Storage Report

1 Includes lease condensate.
2 Net Imports = Gross Imports (line 3) + Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)
Imports (line 4) - Exports (line 5).
3 Unaccounted-for Crude Oil is a balancing item. See Glossary for further
explanation.
4 Includes adjustments for fuel ethanol and motor gasoline blending components.
5 Includes finished petroleum products, unfinished oils, gasoline blending
components, and natural gas plant liquids.
6 Includes an estimate of minor product stock change based on monthly data.

Oil Trades Near This Year's High as U.S. Fuel Supplies Dropped

Crude oil was little changed near this year's high in New York after a report showed U.S fuel inventories plunged as refineries shut units.

Stockpiles of distillate fuel, which includes diesel and heating oil, dropped 5.04 million barrels last week, the biggest decline since September 2005, the U.S. Energy Department said yesterday. Gasoline inventories fell 3.04 million barrels to 222.1 million, the report showed.

Iran insists on access to nuclear technology as inalienable right

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad Thursday insisted on the access to nuclear technology as the country's inalienable right, the official IRNA news agency reported.

"The Iranian nation will defend its rights to the end since it considers pursuit of peaceful nuclear energy as the country's inalienable right," Ahmadinejad told a huge crowd of local residents in the city of Rasht in northern Gilan province.

COVER- Do we desire a streetcar?

Carting a Styrofoam cooler-- like the ones that carry hearts to be transplanted-- the post-doctoral researcher startles me by hopping on the Charlottesville Free Trolley near the University of Virginia hospital. Seeing me eyeing her cargo, the 30-ish woman explains in a cheerful British accent, "not organs, just blood samples. I'm delivering them after lunch."

A couple of stops later, she disembarks near a restaurant, and a dozen stops after that, the Trolley returns downtown to Live Arts where my bicycle and I had climbed aboard 48 minutes earlier. In between, driver Chuck Fix has picked up and dropped off 21 riders during a UVA holiday.

Peak Oil Passnotes: The Oil Market Heats Up

The oil and energy markets like to paint themselves as very scientific places. From the geology to the deep water technology, from the super tankers to the powerpoint presentations. But as we all know the truth is nothing of the sort.

For the regular reader of this column the idea of a herd mentality on the market is nothing new. We have looked at times when bullish signals spell bearishness and where bearish signals sell bullishness. You can make your mind up on what we have now.

Community Solutions: Seeking local answers to a global issue

Global warming was talked about and debated for years. In January leading world scientists confirmed what activists had been saying for decades: global warming is real, and is largely the result of human activity on the planet.

Peak oil has been talked about for years. Proponents of Hubbert’s Theory argue that peak oil may be upon us now. But others debate the theory, and consider those sounding the alarm to be extremists.

Oil Prices: What Next?

Where do oil prices go from here, up reckons David Guthrie. And heres why...

Three years ago, I remember seeing a fund manager being interviewed on CNBC, the financial news network. He suggested that the price of oil was going up to $100 per barrel. The interviewer spluttered at such alarmist talk and was at pains to distance the channel from this expression of opinion – as if to suggest the man was clearly demented.

Petrodollar flows into dollar to ebb as oil wavers

An anticipated lower oil price and slowing accumulation of dollar reserves from oil-exporting countries could well erode a pillar of dollar support over the rest of 2007.

With oil already back below and unlikely to exceed last year's record highs, oil-exporting countries' central banks will have less income to invest in dollar-denominated assets and the growth in their foreign currency reserves should slow.

Zimbabwe: Cash Flow Planning Under Hyperinflation

Cash flow planning is difficult enough in a low inflation environment. This is especially so for entrepreneurs and small business owners without a strong background in accounting or financial management.

Gold Rallies to Seven-Month High on Buying Frenzy

Gold futures rallied almost 3.5% today to $684 an ounce, up $23 a day after losing nearly $12 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. This was the metal’s highest close since July 7 and very reminiscent of moves made when gold was hitting all-time highs of $850.

“Today’s gyrations not only hark back to last spring’s high-wire act, but bring to memory shades of 1979-1980 when daily moves of this type and magnitude were seen as more or less ‘routine’,” said Jon Nadler, analyst for Kitco.com.

Oil Industry Magical Thinking

The CBC reports that Gordon Lambert, the VP of sustainable development for Suncor Energy Inc., just told a special legislative committee that the federal government should set up a new technology fund to help oil and gas companies clean up their act - instead of "punitive measures" like mandatory emissions standards.

"We do have a significant dilemma before us," he told a special legislative committee studying Bill C-30, Canada's Clean Air Act, in Ottawa.

"On the one hand, we want abundant clean energy. On the other other, we want to protect the environment. The only way to square that circle is through new technology.

Switchgrass ethanol not so easy, say industry members

As nationwide demand surges for ethanol, producers of the fuel are increasingly looking beyond corn for main ingredients.
But much-touted alternatives, such as switchgrass and woodchips, are a long way from becoming the norm in ethanol production, according to speakers at industry panels held today at the JW Marriott Starr Pass Resort & Spa.

ENERGY MATTERS: Africa Tops Mideast As US Crude Source

When it comes to supplying the U.S with oil, Africa is quietly trumping the Middle East.

U.S. crude oil imports from Africa topped supplies from the Middle East in 2006 for the first time in 21 years, government data show. As recently as 2001, U.S. imports from the Middle East topped African supplies by more than 10%, or 1.3 million barrels a day. Now, the fractional edge given to African crude oil suppliers in the world's largest consumer of oil underscores a number of market changes and may grow wider in coming years.

The Peak Oil Crisis: CERA Week 2007

If you are in the energy business then “CERAWeek,” a convention in Houston put on by the energy consulting firm Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA), was the place to be last week. Attending this “world renowned event” were some 1,600 “CEOs, sheiks, professors, analysts and energy decision makers,” who paid up to $5,500 to listen to 120 distinguished speakers pontificate on the future of the world’s energy supplies.

Now, some of you may recall that the Cambridge Energy folks are the ones who don’t believe peak oil is imminent. They believe this so fervently that they are constantly issuing papers and writing articles “proving” that geological limits to the continued expansion of oil supplies are decades away. Thus it seems natural that when Cambridge Energy orchestrates an energy convention, it starts with the underlying premise that the world economy and oil production will continue to grow nicely for at least the next 25 years.

WORKER RIOT AT THE TENGIZ OILFIELD: WHO IS TO BLAME?

Tengiz, known for expanding oil production and a bribery scandal involving top officials and prominent shareholders, made different headlines last fall. This was in relation to a mass riot that broke out on 20 October between domestic workers and foreign nationals. The situation was reportedly ‘under control’ within hours, which lends credibility to eyewitness accounts asserting that it caused little surprise among locals and that the oil company, its subcontractors, and, perhaps, the state were prepared for a prompt response to minimize anticipated damage. If so, then was the riot, which claimed several lives and left hundreds injured, preventable?

Oil edges up as traders expect lower US stocks in tomorrow´s data

Oil rose, reversing earlier losses, as the market prepared for weekly US stocks data which is expected to show a drop in inventories

The Energy Information Administration will release the data tomorrow, a day later than usual as the US celebrated a national holiday on Monday. At 5.11 pm, front-month Brent North Sea crude contracts for April delivery were up 64 cents to 58.62 usd per barrel. Oil shed 16 cents to close at 57.98 usd yesterday

Slowdown in U.S. housing leads to job losses

Denise Hamilton was earning the biggest salary of her life painting and packing refrigerator parts until Collis decided to shut its Evansville, Indiana, factory and she was fired.

Hamilton lost her $11.20-an-hour job last month because Collis's main customer, Whirlpool, the world's largest appliance maker, cut production after a drop in home sales reduced demand for new refrigerators, washing machines and dishwashers. Whirlpool fired 500 workers at its Evansville plant and Collis fired 160, including Hamilton.

The Second Great Depression

"The US economy is in danger of a recession that will prove unusually long and severe. By any measure it is in far worse shape than in 2001-02 and the unraveling of the housing bubble is clearly at hand. It seems that the continuous buoyancy of the financial markets is again deluding many people about the gravity of the economic situation."

Dr. Kurt Richebacher

BELGIUM: Climate change scepticism still exists in Brussels

The human cause of climate change is an established fact in the scientific community. But some giant corporations such as Exxon Mobil continue to fund NGOs that sow doubt on the subject, with some MEPs tempted by the sceptical line.

"We can be very confident that the net effect of human activity since 1750 has been of warming," a major report by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said this month, finally confirming what many individual academics have been saying for at least 10 years.

Foreclosures, Real Estate Financing, and Their Impact to the Real Estate Market

Starting from 2002, every participant in the broad real estate arena has been trained to ignore financing as an integral part of all real estate transactions. It is so easy that it seems anyone who wants a loan can get a loan. No down payment? No credit? No problem.

So where do we go from here? As most of you know, since 1982, my specialty in real estate was foreclosures. I have never seen a cycle like this before so I have no historical comparison to draw from. All I can offer is some thoughts and points to ponder over:

Iran refuses to budge on UN demands

Iran called Wednesday for talks with the United States — but despite a U.N. Security Council deadline did not budge on council demands that it mothball its uranium enrichment program or face harsher sanctions.

Amid Iran's nuclear defiance, the U.N. nuclear watchdog finalized a report to be released Thursday that is expected to formally confirm the Islamic republic's refusal to freeze enrichment — a conclusion that could subject it to tougher U.N. sanctions.

US Ambassador To Zimbabwe Sees 'Wheels Coming Off' In Harare

U.S. Ambassador to Zimbabwe Christopher Dell said Tuesday he sees the "wheels coming off" for the government of President Robert Mugabe, which is facing mounting labor unrest and a renewed challenge from its political opponents.

Asked for his analysis of the current turmoil in Zimbabwe, Dell responded, "I think what we're seeing is the beginning of the wheels coming off the wagon in Zimbabwe." He said hyperinflation of 1,600% has "eroded the regime's ability to sustain itself."

What is the difference between deflation now and that during great deprssion? What can you do to protect yourself?

The economy is headed for a serious slowdown accompanies with deflation in most sectors. The last time it happened was in 1929-1934. It was the time of great depression. There are many parallels between the great depression and now. There are some significant differences too. Are you prepared to handle the differences?

Stevens proposes new plan for ANWR

U.S. Sen. Ted Stevens on Monday tossed out a new approach for opening up the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge: Make it part of the nation's emergency stockpile of oil.

The idea came up during a nearly hour-long briefing for news reporters in Anchorage. Alaska's senior senator also talked about the war in Iraq, the Alaska gas pipeline and the interim U.S. attorney.

UTI Mutual rolls out gold ETF -Video

UTI Mutual Fund today launched its gold exchange traded fund (GETF), becoming the second fund house in the country after Benchmark AMC to offer this asset class investment.

The new fund offer (NFO), with a minimum investment of Rs 20,000, would be available between March 1 and 12 and would be listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) on March 26.

Yen Declines as Bank of Japan Says Rate Increases to Be Gradual

The yen fell for a fourth day as the Bank of Japan said interest-rate increases will be gradual, after policy makers raised borrowing costs for the second time in eight months.

Japan's currency declined after the central bank, which voted 8-1 to increase its overnight lending rate a quarter percentage point to 0.5 percent, predicted inflation will remain near zero percent. The lowest benchmark rate among major economies has encouraged investors to borrow in yen to buy higher-yielding assets, known as the carry trade.

China's Trade Surplus Almost Doubles as Reserve Diversification Rumblings Continue to Grow

Figures released earlier this month showed that China's trade surplus for January came in at $15.9 billion, up from $9.6 billion in January 2006. China's trade surplus for 2006 as a whole almost doubled to $177 billion, and it could well exceed $200 billion this year. This means that although China's foreign exchange pile already amounts to over $1 trillion, it continues to burgeon at a rapid rate, with bigger implications than many people realise.

The larger China's foreign exchange reserves become, then the greater will be the pressure on its government to find the most profitable way of managing them. The problem with this is that the People's Bank of China's current policy of holding its reserves primarily in dollars is plainly not a sound investment strategy.

Housing Bubble and Real Estate Market Tracker

Here's our summary of articles and data points on the housing market. It's part of Seeking Alpha's coverage of the real estate market and homebuilder stocks. Like all other topics and stock coverage from Seeking Alpha, you can get this sent to your Blackberry or desktop email by signing up for our no-spam free email subscription service.

Sovereign Risk: Will Venezuela Default on Its Debt?

Perhaps the biggest threat to Hugo Chávez' continued rule is internal, namely the rapidly deteriorating Venezuelan economy. But this trend holds potentially ominous implications for domestic and foreign investors who currently hold Venezuelan debt instruments.

When oil prices spiked last year to more than $70 per barrel, the political currency of Hugo Chávez soared even as the nation's currency, the Bolivar, sank to all times lows vs. the dollar. Despite the vast increase in Venezuela's export income last year, Chávez has managed to alienate foreign investors and accelerate both inflation and the rapid deterioration in living standards among his country's poor - once his most powerful and reliable base of political support.

Bonds are Forecasting a 2007 Recession

We believe the intermediate-term risks in Bonds have moved away from a decline to a rise in prices, and to declining long-term interest rates. This is frightening, as it means we are about to enter another recession, one that could be deeper than we have seen in a long time. Why do we see this as an increasing risk?

Economic View: Academic debate over climate change sounds alarms

There is an unofficial code of conduct that dictates how intellectuals should behave when they're fighting each other, a sort of Geneva Convention for the ivory tower set.

Before they attack someone else's work, they first praise their opponent. A typical way to do so is to describe another professor as a distinguished scholar who has made an important contribution to the research literature. When you hear that, you can be pretty sure things are about to get nasty.

Natural Gas Price: Trend Change or Winter Peak?

From a price point of view, natural gas is acting well in 2007.

The bad news of warm weather in January did not drive price down and the good news of cold weather in February may be setting the stage for price to move up. Near-record heating demand this month promises further sharp inventory reductions, bringing gas in storage well within the five-year range (see Working Gas chart, below).

Saudi diplomacy and the new Arab order

KING Abdullah’s decision to host the leadership of Hamas and Fatah in a palace overlooking the Kaaba defused an embryonic Palestinian civil war. His mediation is a powerful symbol of the Islamic and Arab nationalist undercurrents in the Saudi Arabian diplomatic calculus.

Oil prices likely to dip - but not far

World oil prices will continue to fall, BP's chief economist Peter Davies believes, but probably not back to the levels prevailing earlier in the decade.

"We expect prices to stay over US$40 a barrel for the next three or four years at least," said Davies, in Wellington for an international energy economists conference.

Centre for Global Energy Studies calls on OPEC to refrain from more output cuts

OPEC does not need to make any further production cuts as it would run the risk of a price spike and impede the rate of demand growth, said the Centre for Global Studies in a monthly report.
"Unless OPEC production is permitted to rise again in the coming months oil prices could once again set off in an upward direction as refiners chase scarce barrels to meet summer demand for transport fuels in North America," said the CGES.

Iran 6 months from mass nuclear enrichment

ElBaradei says Iran has learned so much from its pilot programme that it will be impossible to turn clock back.

LONDON - Iran may be able to enrich uranium on a mass scale in just six months, but it could still be 10 years away from the capacity to build a nuclear bomb, the chief UN monitor said in remarks published Monday.

Iran May Ignore Wednesday's Nuclear Deadline

Iran is not expected to meet Wednesday's U.N. deadline to suspend its enrichment of uranium. Today, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said the nation is willing to discuss the issue, as long as there are no pre-conditions.

The International Atomic Energy Agency said Iran is installing centrifuges needed to create weapons-grade uranium, but also said construction of a large-scale facility is way behind schedule. Even Iran's pilot program has had some problems

Fed's Inflation Analysis Ranks With Zimbabwe's: Caroline Baum

Maybe it was the repetition, the iteration of the same monetary policy testimony on back-to-back days last week, that did it, that left the words grating on my consciousness.

Here was Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, one of the outstanding monetary economists of his time, talking about inflation as if it were the result of some pesky exogenous forces.

Saudis' cutbacks raise oil concerns

Drivers who remember those $3-a-gallon days of the past two years, be warned.

Oil prices are up and the world's biggest producer has been cutting back — a recipe for those prices to keep on climbing.

But whether they are still arching skyward by the time summer driving starts depends largely on just why Saudi Arabia has been pumping less crude.

No one outside the kingdom really knows for sure, but some oil experts think the Saudis' oil reserves may not support increased production.

If Oil Gets Much Harder To Find, How Can It Stay Below $100?

The consultants at Wood Mackenzie say that finding new supplies of oil fifteen years from now will be much more expensive and will also require means more likely to harm the environment.

According to the Financial Times, the crisis may be as near as 2020. It makes the point that “the challenge is huge, said Matthew Simmons, an industry banker who sent shock waves through the oil world when he questioned whether Saudi Arabia, the most important oil source, would be able to continue to expand production.”

Yankee Doodle's World Turned Upside Down

It isn't so funny when political satire collides with reality. In a February 14 spoof, The Onion posts the "claim" that Bush Cuts Off Diplomatic Relations With Congress. Bush feels that Congress has "no concern for my national interests, and have left me no choice."

But things that sound like they should be satire - but aren't - are being issued lately by the Republicans, which prompts relatively sane folks like Jim Wallis to note in Time magazine that "Most people I talk to think that politics isn't working in America and believe that the misuse of religion has been part of the problem."

Ethanol may be more liability than blessing

For a long time ethanol appeared to be the answer to both the energy and the global warming crises. Americans are concerned about peak oil and reliance on diminishing supplies of foreign oil. The ethanol backers said, “Don't worry, ethanol is the answer.” Americans are worried about CO2 emissions from our vehicles causing global warming. Ethanol advocates said, “Don't worry; ethanol is the answer.”

Top 10 'Global-Warming' Myths

10. The U.S. is going it alone on Kyoto and global warming.

Nonsense. The U.S. rejects the Kyoto Protocol’s energy-rationing scheme, along with 155 other countries, representing most of the world’s population, economic activity and projected future growth. Kyoto is a European treaty with one dozen others, none of whom is in fact presently reducing its emissions. Similarly, claims that Bush refused to sign Kyoto, and/or he withdrew, not only are mutually exclusive but also false. We signed it, Nov. 11, 1998. The Senate won’t vote on it. Ergo, the (Democratic) Senate is blocking Kyoto. Gosh.

Robert Newman's History of Oil

British comedian Robert Newman's humorously insightful perspectives on oil and how the world became addicted.

Future oil much harder to extract

THE world's extra oil supply is likely to come from expensive and environmentally damaging unconventional sources within 15 years, according to a detailed study.

This will mean increasing reliance on hard-to-develop sources of energy such as the Canadian oil sands and Venezuela's Orinoco tar belt.

A report from Edinburgh-based consultancy Wood Mackenzie calculates that the world holds 3600 billion barrels of "unconventional" oil and gas that need a lot of energy to extract.

Energy insecurity -- a weapon of mass disruption?

For years we've all heard the statistics – the U.S. imports more than half its oil and we're a large importer of natural gas. And the warning – our economic and national security requires us to reduce our dependence on these foreign sources, as well as use energy more wisely to improve our "energy security." At a panel discussion today at the annual meeting for the Association for the Advancement of Science, energy and national security experts will discuss this and other related topics, including how geopolitics of energy security may require "kid gloves" diplomacy to get what we need.

Fuelling the dragon

On the road leading from Dubai to Oman, deep in the desert, a kilometre-long dragon-shaped building has become a symbol of China's growing ties with the Middle East.

With 4,000 Chinese businesses selling everything from machinery to security systems, plastic toys to massage chairs, the Dragon Mart is hoping to become the largest trading hub abroad for Chinese products.

Venezuela falls short of OPEC output cut

Confirming the figures the International Energy Agency published last week, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in its monthly market report that Venezuela failed to comply with a 138,000 bpd production cut scheduled for November-January under OPEC overall output cut of 1.2 million bpd.

Five Easy Oil Market Lessons

Much of what you read and hear about world oil pricing is wrong. Here are a few things to keep in mind whenever you hear pundits talk about oil prices:

Lesson One: Prices in a competitive market are determined by supply and demand. If the world oil market is competitive, the price of oil on any given day is the result of the intersection between supply and oil demand. Through that process, we end up with “equilibrium” and the price is called “the equilibrium price.” There are no “shortages” in such a market. A shortage indicates that what people are willing and able to buy is more than what sellers are willing and able to sell. In the case of a shortage, prices will increase until we reach equilibrium: a balance between supply and demand. Economics 101 tells us that if the price for West Texas Intermediate is $75 per barrel, then the oil market is at equilibrium at that price and supply and demand are balanced.

Curtailing of oil sands conversion hurts price

In a recent column, I warned that crude oil prices in the mid-$50s per barrel or below would lead to a curtailment of the Canadian oil sands conversion. This 5-year-old alternative energy boom has been making Canada the primary supplier of crude to the United States, reaching a current level of 2 million barrels a day. But with skyrocketing conversion costs getting to the break-even point faster than expected, this expansion may now be delayed.

Peak Oil Review: Energy Briefs

• The Pentagon consumed more than 320,000 barrels of petroleum products per day in 2006 at a cost of $17 billion, according to "Annual Energy Management Report." That makes it the world’s largest single consumer of petroleum.
• Since 1974, California has held its per-capita energy consumption essentially constant, while energy use per person for the US overall has jumped 50 percent. California managed that feat through a mixture of mandates, regulations and high prices.
• First oil production from the Kashagan oil and gas field in Kazakstan is likely to come on stream in 2011-2012, at least two years later than the revised start-up date of the end of 2008 and more than six years after the original target date of 2005.
• Russia will face a natural gas shortage this year of 4 billion cubic meters, according to Anatoly Chubais, CEO of a large Russian natural gas utility. Chubais also predicted the shortage would double next year and increase by a factor of 10 within a few years. The shortage has halted the construction of gas power plants by Chubais’ company.
• The joint venture TNK-BP, which is 50 per cent owned by BP, has been told it is in violation of its agreement to develop Kovykta, its east Siberian gas field. The Russian natural resources ministry gave TNK-BP three months to fix the violations or risk losing its license. The move is the latest sign of Russia's tightening grip on its energy resources.
• China's coal exports fell 20.4% on year to 3.29 million metric tons in January, according to preliminary data issued by the General Administration of Customs. It was the fourth straight month of on-year decline, mainly due
to the government's elimination of tax rebates on coal exports. China, a net coal exporter last year, may become a net importer in 2007.
• Saudi Arabia will spend $507 billion on energy and infrastructure projects over the next 11 years according to a Saudi government official. The kingdom will spend about $267 billion on its oil, gas, and chemical businesses and $240 billion on developing minerals, environmental technologies, infrastructure, power, and water.
• The $4.6 billion Long Lake tar sands project is scheduled to begin producing 58,000 b/d of synthetic oil. Process heat for extraction and hydrogen for upgrading will come from "bottom of the barrel" leftovers from processing rather than from natural gas. The project, however, will not use CO2 sequestration technology.
• Venezuelan oil production dropped 5.5% last year to an average of 2.56 million barrels a day according to estimates released this week by the International Energy Agency.
• A Saudi wing of al Qaeda called for attacks on suppliers of oil to the US saying targets should not be limited to the Middle East and listing Canada, Venezuela and Mexico as places to attack.
• The province of Alberta has initiated a wide-ranging review of its energy royalty policies, which could result in changes in the tax structure for Canadian oil and gas producers.
• Belarus will increase rates for the transit of Russian crude through its domestic pipeline network by more than 30% starting from February 15.
• China may require state-owned energy companies to establish oil reserves as a supplement to the national reserve currently being established.
• China's oil imports were at 47 percent of consumption in 2006, up 4.1 percentage points from 2005 according to data from the Ministry of Commerce.
• Aramco has informed a Japanese company that it will cut allocations of Arabian Medium and Arabian Heavy crudes by nearly 8% each from the contracted amount for March delivery.
• UK oil and gas production may fall faster than expected due to rising costs and high taxes according to the UK Offshore Operator's Association. The association cut its oil and gas production forecast for the next three years by 10%, or 250,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day. Production of oil and natural gas from the UK Continental Shelf fell by 9% to 2.95 million boe/d in 2006 compared with 2005; however, a small increase is expected for 2007.

Will gold or gold shares offer the best downside protection in a global asset sell-off?

Investors around the world are starting to sound alarm bells at the length of the bull market in equities, now approaching four years old. Investors in precious metals and related shares are also concerned that they will get dragged down by a big global asset sell-off. But are physical gold or silver, or mining shares the better buy?

Iranian leader fears end of oil

Iran's top leader said Saturday the country's oil and gas reserves will eventually dry up and defended the drive to produce nuclear fuel, claiming it was the only way to avoid depending on the West for energy.

"Oil and gas reserves won't last forever. If a nation doesn't think of producing its future energy needs, it will be dependent on domination-seeking powers," state television quoted Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as saying.

No easy way out

A 1970s TV commercial featured a harried housewife who, when confronted with a sink full of dishes, cried out, “Calgon, take me away!” And in ancient Greece playwrights tied off convoluted scripts with a similarly satisfying plot twist known as the Deus ex machina, or literally, “god from a machine.” Want a tidy ending? The “god” lowered from the rafters announced one.

Many would-be grand strategists now struggle mightily to provide America with a quick exit from this long war against the global jihadist movement. The Cold War taught us that dedicated foes take decades to defeat, and yet Americans just naturally want to come home.

US military oil pains

As of September 30, 2005 the US Air Force had 5,986 aircraft in service. (1)

At the beginning of 2006 the US Navy had 285 combat and support ships, and around 4,000 operational aircraft (planes and helicopters). (2)

At the end of 2005, the US Army had a combat vehicle fleet of approximately 28,000 armored vehicles (tracked vehicles such as Abrams tanks and Bradley Fighting Vehicles)(3). Besides those the Army and the Marine corps have tactical wheeled vehicles such as 140,000 High-Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles. The US Army has also over 4,000 combat helicopters and several hundred fixed wing aircraft.

Next stop Iran?

THE ingredients most likely to spark confrontation between the United States and Iran could scarcely be simpler or more combustible: a tin filled with an explosive charge and a lump of copper is all that is needed to manufacture what the US military calls an Explosively Formed Penetrator (EFP).

When the device is triggered by an infrared sensor it fires a molten ball of metal at its target with sufficient speed to penetrate most American vehicles' armour. The consequences can be horrific.

Opec output cut unlikely says Tehran

Iran's oil minister yesterday predicted Opec would not need to make a further cut in crude oil production at the group's next meeting in March, as long as the price of crude remains stable.

"If the oil price remains at current levels, there will probably be no need for a cut at the meeting in March," Oil Minister Kazem Vaziri Hamaneh said on the sidelines of an oil conference.

Cellulosic Ethanol: Fuel of the Future?

In his Jan. 23 State of the Union address, President George Bush outlined his plan to reduce the nation's dependency on foreign oil by requiring the production of 35 billion gallons a year of renewable and alternative fuels by 2017, roughly five times the current target set by Congress of 7.5 billion gallons by 2012.

Cash bonanza for global oil giants

As energy prices remained at high levels throughout 2006, the cash bonanza in the oil and gas sector continues as companies raised their capital investment plans and shareholder payouts.

Moody's expects the 2007 pricing environment to continue to support the sector, and its credit quality, but the risk of a downward correction cannot be ruled out.

Nuclear delay casts doubt over future of energy

THE NEWS that the energy white paper will now be delayed following a legal challenge on the government's plans to build a new generation of nuclear energy plants by environmental campaigners Greenpeace will fill those involved in the energy sector with dread.

The judge ruled that the consultation exercise was "misleading", "seriously flawed" and "procedurally unfair".

Trade and industry secretary Alastair Darling admitted that the government had got it wrong and would now "go back to the drawing board".

Hubbert's Peak Theory Points to Dwindling Oil Supply

HUBBERT'S PEAK IS not a mountain, but it's just as good at hiding whatever's on the other side. One anonymous day in the not-too-distant future it will be the most crowded place on Earth. And coming down won't be nearly as much fun as going up.

Hubbert's Peak is named for M. King Hubbert, a prickly but brilliant Shell geologist who went to a meeting of his colleagues from the petroleum industry in 1956 and told them that they had 15 good years left, at most, before U.S. oil production peaked and began a rapid decline.

Future shock: Asia is running out of gas

When crude oil surged past US$70 a barrel in mid-2006, Southeast Asian governments were forced to confront an inconvenient truth that might almost have come from the hand of former US vice president Al Gore: income levels could not be sustained unless new energy sources were found, and quickly.

The World Bank has calculated that oil-import dependency trimmed as much as 1% off the region's gross domestic product last year, as higher production costs eroded export earnings, boosted freight overheads and inflated food prices.

Opec foresees higher oil demand this year

Opec may have to pump more crude this year to make up for lower-than-expected supplies from rival producers, the group’s latest report showed yesterday.
Demand for Opec oil in 2007 will average 30.25mn barrels per day, up from the 30.09mn bpd previously forecast, the 12-member club said in its Monthly Oil Market Report for February.

Opec also said it may cut its forecast for growth in world demand this year from 1.2mn bpd, or 1.5%, should there be a return of the exceptionally mild temperatures in the US that curbed oil use earlier this year.

'Black Monday': Are We Addicted to Oil?

In his debut thriller "Black Monday," R. Scott Reiss writes about a virus that is eating the world's oil supply. The book's main character, Greg Gillette, is an epidemiologist at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention who must track the virus and try to stop it. The following is an excerpt of the book.

Dollar flat as market consolidates

The dollar recovered from session lows against other major currencies Friday, consolidating after sliding to multi-week lows in the prior session, but still finishing the week sharply lower.

The U.S. currency briefly dropped after government reports showed relatively benign inflation and a sharp fall in housing starts. A weaker-than-expected reading on consumer sentiment had little impact on the market.

"Traders take profits ahead of the long holiday weekend in the U.S. in observation of President's Day Holiday," said Ashraf Laidi, chief foreign-exchange analyst at CMC Markets in New York.

Greencore condemned for rejecting ethanol move

CONVENIENCE food group Greencore was condemned yesterday for its failure to produce ethanol at its former sugar plant in Mallow.

Greencore last year exited sugar processing in Ireland after 80 years and plans to redevelop its beet processing sites in Mallow and Carlow at a cost of €1.5 billion in one of the largest property deals in recent years.

The group has roughly 950 acres of land including the two sugar processing sites in Ireland and some surplus land in Britain.

Ethanol: World’s grain for food or profit?

The grain to fill a 25-gallon SUV tank with ethanol could feed a person for a year. The diversion of grains for the world’s 800 million cars will increase the price and decrease the production of food to feed the 2 billion poorest people of the world who spend at least half their income on food, according to the Earth Policy Institute. Thus, endangerment of the world’s food supply is one addition to the list of serious threats to our world stemming from the growing energy crisis.
The move to develop biofuels as an oil alternative was embraced in Bush’s State of the Union speech.

The World Can Halt Bush’s Crimes by Dumping the Dollar

What would be the consequences of a US or Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear energy sites?

At the 2006 Perdana Global Peace Forum, Australian medical scientist Dr. Helen Caldicott provided an authoritative analysis of the devastating impact on human life that would result from the radiation release from such an attack.

Dr. Caldicott described the catastrophic deaths that would result from a conventional attack on nuclear facilities and the long-term increase in cancer deaths from the radiation release.

Oil for breakfast

Driving down Route 1 the other night, I saw a gas station advertising regular fuel for $1.95. In my aging Honda Accord, that comes out to around 10 cents per mile of New Brunswick driving - easily worth it on those frigid Saturday mornings when an empty apartment drives me to the dining hall in search of food. It is easy to forget just how high prices rose this summer, when car companies featured ads with across-the-street road trips, and concerns about our global oil supply were on the tips of everyone's tongues.

Russia, Saudi Arabia energy partners, not rivals - Putin

Russia's president said on the second day of his landmark visit to Saudi Arabia that the two countries, the world's top oil producers, were partners rather than rivals in the energy sector.

Vladimir Putin's two-day visit to Saudi Arabia, which has substantial clout in Islamic countries, is significant because it is the first visit by a Russian leader to the Arab nation, considering the two countries maintained no diplomatic relations for some 60 years.

US oil majors chary of Bush biofuel plan

houston • Top US energy companies are sceptical President George W Bush’s plan to boost biofuels production can wean the world’s largest consumer off fossil fuels because the technology needed remains well out of reach.

Oil majors like ExxonMobil Corp and Chevron Corp, specialists in harvesting energy with drill bits and not ploughs, are damping the exuberance of US farmers eager to reap the benefits of surging demand for corn-based ethanol.

How to deal with Iran? Saddam's Iraq, North Korea, may not serve as precedents

Saddam's Iraq was invaded and North Korea cajoled into a deal. But how to get Iran — the third member of President George W. Bush's "Axis of Evil" — to abandon its suspected nuclear arms program is befuddling the international community.

The United States has not ruled out the military option, but it seems unlikely: The chaos unleashed in Iraq by America's invasion not only ties up U.S. troops but is consistently invoked by key U.S. allies as a reason not to go that route.

Gold demand climbs, while supply wanes

Demand for gold hit a record $65-billion (U.S.) last year, propelled by both investors and the jewellery industry, according to statistics compiled for the World Gold Council by GFMS Ltd.

But the supply of gold and tonnage sold declined.

The Gold Council is optimistic about the prospects for 2007, noting that investor demand remains positive and demand in most jewellery markets has been brisk. But it warns that the return of excessive price volatility could hinder jewellery purchases.

Dollar fell against the euro and yen after U.S. capital flow data

The dollar dropped the most in almost eight months on Thursday, to a one-month low against the yen after U.S. data showed the net outflow from U.S. capital markets in December was $11 billion, not nearly enough to finance that month's trade deficit. The dollar fell against the euro as well, but recovered some ground after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress that the economy may be stronger than some believe. A surprise decline in U.S. industrial output last month, a spike in U.S. jobless claims last week and a sharp slide in U.S. mid-Atlantic region manufacturing activity also kept overall sentiment on the dollar negative.

Running out of oil may not be the issue at all

All the talk of when the world will run out of oil could be rendered irrelevant because of geopolitical issues that block access to untapped reserves, the head of international exploration and production for Chevron Corp. said Wednesday.

John Watson told energy executives and analysts that the so-called peak oil debate focuses on the level of resources below the ground. He joined the prevailing view of speakers at the Cambridge Energy Research Associates' annual conference in Houston that the planet won't run out of oil anytime soon despite opposing theories that a peak and subsequent drop-off in production is imminent or even ongoing.

DYSFUNCTIONAL GOVERNMENT, DYSFUNCTIONAL FAMILY

It seems to me that Americans for at least the past seven years have been stricken with a collective trance such as I have never witnessed in this country in my lifetime. Psychologist, Paul Levy, in his superb article Spiritually Informed Political Activism speaks to the necessity of waking up from the spell and speaking the truth about the criminal insanity that is running our nation and our world. He takes this "waking up" many steps further by the end of his article, but for now, I'd like to address the questions: "Why such seemingly impenetrable denial in the American psyche these days? Why are some people almost incapable of awakening?"

OPEC keeps 2007 demand growth forecast broadly unchanged, warns on warm weather

OPEC kept its oil demand growth forecast broadly unchanged for this year, but warned if warmer weather returns over the coming weeks, it might have to reduce its forecast going forward

OPEC said while it sees 2007 oil demand growth at 1.2 mln bpd or 1.5 pct - broadly unchanged from its prior 1.25 mln bpd forecast - it has revised down its first-quarter demand growth forecast for OECD countries by 0.1 mln bpd

Russian Expert Says Gas OPEC Inevitable

Director of Russian Institute of Geopolitical Research and Energy Security Elena Telegina believes that as gas market is becoming more global, creation of gas producers’ cartel becomes inevitable.

“After the oil market became global, OPEC appeared. The same will happen to gas. Gas infrastructure takes a long time to pay for itself, therefore producers are interested in guaranteed deliveries,” Telegina said, quoted by Rosbalt agency.

Global Warming Is Our Friend

Early in the Second World War George Orwell famously wrote, "As I write, highly civilized human beings are flying overhead, trying to kill me." The irony of that scene, I assume, accounts for the line's enduring fame. Well, let me try some irony on you, "As I write, freezing rain and wind-whipped snow are pelting my roof, rendering me miserable, yet highly civilized human beings are trying to kill me." They actually oppose global warming. Despite the inclement weather, they remonstrate that global warming is an environmental evil, and from universities and media outlets they endeavor to silence anyone who departs from their orthodoxy.

Less to "Goldilocks" Than Meets The Eye

Commentators wearing rose-colored glasses, incorrigibly bullish Wall Street cheerleaders, and apologists for the current Administration like to prattle on about how well things are going in the U.S,, but three recent articles suggest economic circumstances are not as wonderful as many would have us believe.

Geothermal 'heat pumps' a natural alternative to gas

A system common throughout much of Europe and beyond is now slowly beginning to catch on in Turkey. The energy it uses comes from below the Earth's surface and is clean, renewable and inexpensive.

While the search for a cure to Turkey's ever-growing energy costs goes on, a method applied in Istanbul's Riva Mansions is a strong candidate for an alternative to Turkey's main means of space heating, natural gas.

Cheap Oil to Last, "Doomsday" Fears Overblown, Author Says

Is the era of cheap oil really at an end? Or could a glut send prices into a freefall? Should Western countries fear energy blackmail from oil-rich powers?

There's no crystal ball to predict oil's future, but Leonardo Maugeri believes that much can be learned by looking at the industry's past.

China, Russia, Backers of North Korea Deal, Fight U.S. on Iran

China and Russia are fighting U.S. efforts at the United Nations to prevent Iran from building nuclear bombs while working to strip North Korea of the same weapons.

Diplomats said the international effort to punish Iran has been stymied, chiefly by China and Russia. Russian diplomats said they favor negotiations aimed at persuading Iran to halt nuclear enrichment work, rather than carrying out sanctions right away. Chinese envoys expressed the same view.

Jury's out on ethanol merits

IT WAS being dubbed as an environmental saviour by Morris Iemma yesterday, but contrary research and opinions are mixed about the benefits of ethanol-blended fuel.

While Mr Iemma said greenhouse gas emissions in NSW could fall between 2 and 7 per cent after 2011 when NSW will require that 10 per cent of fuel contain an ethanol component, there are doubts as to the product's effectiveness in reducing greenhouse gases.

What's Being Left Out of Solutions to Fossil Fuel?

Everyone from the Republicans to Democrats to major environmental groups are singing hosannas to biofuels and hybrid cars as the salvation from peak oil and global warming. Will trusting corporations to manufacture environmentally friendly cars make a dent in the world's ecological crises? Or could the "solutions" actually be making the problem worse?

Warning on shortage of North Sea oil rigs

Bob Lyons, of AGR Peak, a company which will drill 19 wells in the UK this year for operators, warned the UKOffshore Operators' Association (UKOOA) of the difficulty of obtaining rigs.

Details of a survey highlight how rising costs and resource constraints pose a threat to competitiveness and future production.

North Sea oil, gas production projected to decline

The UK Offshore Operators’ Association has released a report saying that oil and gas production from North Sea wells will be around 10 percent lower in the next few years than had been estimated earlier. Costs are expected to go up as production output declines.

While experts estimate that there is still the equivalent of 16 billion to 25 billion barrels of oil and gas left in North Sea oil fields, and despite the fact that 2006 was said to be the best year for new finds there in the past five years, old wells are beginning to run dry and new wells are smaller than the older wells. Recent finds have only been averaging around 10 million barrels equivalent.

Plug-In Hybrids: What's the Big Deal?

If General Motors was looking for a spike in its public perception as a competitive, socially responsible automotive innovator – read 'green' car company – then a little concept car bearing the Chevrolet badge and called, appropriately enough, Volt, appears to have resuscitated the fortunes of a company until recently considered terminal.

The Ghawar Oil Field: How Much Is Left?

Back in 2001, before the issue of energy scarcity ever entered my mind, I read a chilling online article called "Ghawar Is Dying" that bluntly speculated about the massive global upheavals modern industrial society would suffer if the largest oil field in Saudi Arabia were indeed running dry.

The article represented an eye-opening, paradigm-changing revelation for me, as I began to understand how very fragile the way of life that millions of people take for granted actually is. If access to abundant amounts of cheap oil were suddenly cut off, virtually every person living in the developed world would experience a precipitous drop in their standard of living, as most of the available creature comforts would disappear like a puff of smoke. After copiously researching the topic, discussions with friends and acquaintances became more and more strained as I realized that not only were they were just as clueless as I had been, but no one wanted to even contemplate the possibility of a decidedly grimmer future.

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending February 9, 2007

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged over 14.8 million barrels per day duringthe week ending February 9, down just 1,000 barrels per day from the previous week's average. Refineries operated at 86.6 percent of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production declined compared to the previous week, averaging over 8.9 million barrels per day, while distillate fuel productionincreased, averaging nearly 4.1 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged nearly 9.6 million barrels per day last week, up37,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports have averaged over 9.7 million barrels per day, or 35,000 barrels per day less than averaged over the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 820,000 barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 357,000 barrels per day last week.

The coming war against Iran - Part 15

Using strong words and accusations to underscore their military build up, the United States is gearing up to go to war with yet another country: Iran. Now that with every day passing a war with Iran is coming closer, all the parties involved are further entrenching themselves.

It is a war that seemed to be inevitable from the start. Nobody wants it, except a few. History will show if these few will get what they are aiming for.

THE GIANT SUCKING SOUND, REVISITED

Remember the metaphorical “giant sucking sound” that Ross Perot invoked in the 1992 presidential debates? Perot employed that image to characterize the rapid exodus of jobs to Mexico that would surely result from ratifying the North American Free Trade Agreement. Fifteen years later, that vivid phrase could appropriately describe the increasingly desperate circumstances befalling Cantarell, Mexico’s largest oilfield, situated about 50 miles off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

Oil has peaked, but where's the data? analyst asks

One of the leading exponents of the peak oil theory that reserves have gone beyond maximum production and entered irreversible decline urged the world's oil industry to build a data base to prove whether he is right.

Energy investment banker Matthew Simmons, chairman of Houston-based investment banking firm Simmons & Co. International, has argued world crude oil supply probably pea