The Armageddon Gang

There are those who fret that current troubles in real estate will lead to an economic slowdown, maybe a recession. Then there's Peter Schiff. "Our standard of living is going to decline," the Connecticut stockbroker confidently declares. "There's no way around it, and it has just started."

Schiff owns Euro Pacific Capital, a smallish firm that specializes in moving clients' money into nondollar assets like foreign stocks and bonds. Over the past couple of years, he has become a regular, hectoring presence on cable-TV business shows--on CNBC they call him "Dr. Doom." Now he has a book out, ominously titled Crash Proof: How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse.

Financial Armageddon

Crash Proof

Vote Different : - Ron Paul 2/2

Vote Different : - Ron Paul 1/2

Ron Paul 2008

Oil production in the world close to peak

Since the 1950s, oil has been the dominant source of energy in the world. The cheap supply of oil has been the engine for economic growth in the western world. Since future oil demand is expected to increase, the question to what extent future production will be available is important.

Rise and Fall of Subprime Lenders Began on Wall St.

It all started last November, when a relatively small lender — called Own-It Mortgage Solutions — defaulted on its loans to JP Morgan Chase & Co. Since then, more than 24 subprime lenders have folded, victims of rising default rates — but also of rising suspicions that the entire subprime market is teetering.

One of the nation's biggest subprime lenders, New Century Financial, is expected to file for bankruptcy any day now.

U.S. Bank Revenue From Derivatives Surged to Record

U.S. bank revenue from trading derivatives rose to a record $18.8 billion in 2006, driven by high client demand among hedge funds and other large institutional investors.

Revenue grew 31 percent from $14.4 billion in 2005, the previous record, the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency said in its quarterly bank derivatives report released today in Washington.

Copper Prices Head for Biggest Monthly Increase Since April

Copper prices are headed for a fourth consecutive weekly gain and the biggest monthly increase since April on signs of robust demand for the metal.

Inventories monitored by the London Metal Exchange have fallen for a seventh straight week, the longest decline since July 2005. Producers including Codelco and Freeport McMorRan Copper & Gold Inc., the two biggest, said this week that Asian demand will remain strong. Copper prices have more than tripled in four years on demand from China, the largest consumer.

Brazil's Silva to meet Bush on trade, ethanol amid reports of Iran friction

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva hopes to advance a biofuels alliance and stalled world trade talks when he meets U.S. President George W. Bush in Washington on Saturday — the leaders' second meeting in less than a month.

But a potential source of friction emerged Friday after U.S. officials expressed concerned about investments that Brazil's state-owned oil company reportedly plans to make in Iran.

Ron Paul Interview

Bloomberg Special Report - Phantom Shares

Radioactive Money

The Islamic Republic of Iran has just issued a new 50,000 rial banknote. An eye-catching feature of the banknote is the atomic symbol on its reverse side, an orange-hued representation of six electrons in orbit. Money has been "backed" by a wide range of things, from silver and gold, to central banks, to assertions of raw power. This atomic symbol represents quite an escalation in this regard.

Oil Supply Shock

The U.S. is vulnerable and the government is unprepared for unacceptably high risks of oil supply shock, with Matthew Simmons, Simmons & Co. International chairman; John Kilduff, Fimat USA Energy Risk Management senior vice president and CNBC's Bob Pisani

End of oil heralds climate pain

Many people think that running out of oil, or "peak oil", would be good for the climate. In his new book The Last Oil Shock, David Strahan begs to differ; he suggests it may bring catastrophe.

. Unprepared For Oil Supply Crisis: Government Report

As crude oil prices surge on rising political tensions with Iran, a new government report released Thursday said that the U.S. is unprepared to face an oil supply crisis and urged U.S. policymakers to develop a strategy in order to reduce potential risks related to an oil shock.

The report from the U.S. Government Accountability Office concluded that the U.S. has no plans in place to address "peak oil," the future point in history of maximum oil production, which would be followed by irreversible declines in oil fields around the world.

The stock is dead, long live commodities, says Rogers

Investment guru Jim Rogers says the rise of China and the change in the status of the US dollar as a reserve currency is having a profound impact on global demand.

Investment guru Jim Rogers believes that the bull market for stock and bond markets is over and says investors should get into commodities. There is a long-term bull market in commodities which will extend to 2014-2022, he told the Credit Suisse Asian Investment Conference in a keynote speech yesterday.

Pickens Tells CNBC: Fundamentals Pushing Up Oil, Not Politics

Texas energy investor Boone Pickens told CNBC that the recent spike in oil prices is due more to "fundamentals" than geopolitical tensions with Iran and that "you're going to look at $70 oil pretty quick."

Mapping the Subprime Mess

Let's see. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke used the word subprime seven times in yesterday's prepared remarks before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress.

Recent hearings in the United States Senate have led to talk of bailouts for subprime borrowers spurring a "Stop the Subprime Bailout" letter writing campaign from long-time Bay Area housing bubble watcher Patrick Killelea at Patrick.net.

DJ Fed's Stern: Subprime Troubles Not A Broader Econ Threat

Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Gary Stern on Thursday played down the threat posed to the broader economy by the troubled state of mortgage lending to low credit quality borrowers.

While the troubles faced by some subprime borrowers are real, "it seems unlikely to become big enough to have an impact on a $13 trillion economy," Stern said in response to audience questions at the R.I.S.E. forum, held at the University of Dayton in Ohio. He added that in terms of a broader spillover from subprime lending, "I don't see at the moment why that should happen."

Housing market off to strong start in 2007

Canada’s housing market has gotten off to a hotter-than-expected start this year, says a major real estate firm, which reported double-digit-percentage increases in prices for all major types of housing from a year earlier.

While the increases in prices in the first quarter of this year were led by continuing strong price gains in Alberta, prices were also up in virtually all cities in Canada, Century 21 noted in its quarterly housing market report.

Florida Foreclosure Prevention Hotline Helps Homeowners Sell Homes Quickly

The Florida Foreclosure Prevention Hotline announced today a solution for those homeowners who are both facing foreclosure and need to help sell their homes quickly. According to the company, they have been able to intervene on behalf of their clients and negotiate directly with the lender to help mitigate losses, preserve credit and allow the homeowner to avoid a situation where the sale of their home results in a zero or negative balance.

Damara Cohn, a Real Estate agent that works with the Hotline considers herself a solution of last resort. If after all avenues have been explored and tried, from refinancing to forbearance, Damara steps in to help the homeowner avoid the worst case scenarios.

Uncertainty Haunts GAO Peak Oil Report

Paucity of data, conflicting methodologies and lack of coherent government policy is a cocktail for future energy crisis

Ron Paul in New Hampshire

Asia states warned on danger of reserves

Asia’s developing economies are fuelling asset bubbles with their huge foreign currency reserves and could put them to better use by retiring debt or buying higher-yielding investments, the Asian Development Bank said on Tuesday.

Ifzal Ali, ADB chief economist, said the current level of reserves held by Asian developing economies – $2,280bn – was excessive.

GAO report on peak oil to be released

Congressmen Roscoe Bartlett (R-MD) and Tom Udall (D-NM), co-chairmen of the Congressional Peak Oil Caucus, announce a Capitol Hill news conference on Thursday, March 29, 2007 between 11:30 am and 12:00 noon in HC-9 of the Capitol to discuss the release of an embargoed GAO report.

The report will reveal the United States is particularly vulnerable and the United States federal government is unprepared to respond to severe consequences from an increasing risk of significant disruptions to world oil supplies from peak oil and other above ground political and economic factors.

Guest Opinion: Peak oil scenario paints frightening future for all

By day, Chris conducts research in conservation biology and prepares for the intellectually demanding exams required of doctoral students. At home in the evening with his wife and 2-year-old daughter, he teaches himself to create fire by rubbing sticks together.

Chris is one of the graduate students with whom I am fortunate to work, and he has wisely chosen to live in two worlds. The first is the overindulged culture of make-believe in which most Americans are comfortably ensconced; the second is the real world of peak oil.

Giuliani Is Not A Libertarian

On this blog, a lot of typing has gone on attacking Rudy Giuliani, and some (but a lot less) has been spent defending him. Some, such as commentor Eric Dondero, suggest that Rudy Giuliani is a Libertarian Republican. As evidence of this, he refers to OnTheIssues.org, who rates Rudy as a “moderate libertarian”.

The question, then, falls down to whether Rudy is a candidate that libertarians should support. On the surface, one might think so. He’s appears to be a fan of fiscal liberty, with his constant attempts to cut taxes and balance spending in New York. As for social liberty, he’s a long way ahead of his rivals on the conservative wing of the Republican party.

The Peak Oil Crisis: Alternatives #1 – Wind Power

The year 2007 is shaping up as one filled with bad news. It’s only March and already oil prices are threatening new highs. This fall’s hurricane season is predicted to be a bad one. Worst of all, a new study of coal reserves, which were supposed to last for the next 150 years, is saying that, in terms of energy content, US coal production peaked in 1998.

Very soon we are going to have a more electrified civilization with the energy coming from the sun, the wind, the sea, the molten core of the earth, biomass, and perhaps exotic biological reactions. Until these new technologies come into widespread use —a transition that will be expensive and will take decades to accomplish— there will have to be serious conservation to see us through.

South Africa: Great Risk in Our Oil Delusion

ISN't it interesting how some assumptions about the way society works and what keeps it ticking find their way into the collective consciousness and are not challenged or interrogated? Take for example the way we consume energy. Globally, there seems to be a deep-seated, and wholly incorrect, belief that our current patterns of consumption can continue indefinitely because there is an infinite supply of oil. Over the past century and a half we have allowed oil to become vital to almost everything we do. The global consumption of oil is about 85-million barrels a day, or 31-billion barrels a year. There is an almost universal belief that this can go on forever.

Corn is not the future of U.S. ethanol - DOE

New technology to make ethanol from crops such as grasses and trees instead of corn could ease price spikes of the grain within a decade, a U.S. Energy Department official said on Wednesday.

"I'm not going to predict what the price of corn is going to do, but I will tell you the future of biofuels is not based on corn," U.S. Deputy Energy Secretary Clay Sell said in an interview.

Crude Awakening: Long-term, Prices Should Continue To Rise

The last time we looked at the oil chart was in a post about CanRoys. At the time, there were plenty of oil bears on CNBC predicting $20-30 oil, but I was pretty sure that $50 was going to hold.

Fast forward two months, oil’s back up to $63 a barrel. The talking heads would again have you believe that geopolitical tension is the sole cause while completely glossing over the fact that the rebound started long before this latest Iranian incident.

How Much Longer Will the Current Gold Bull Last?

The purpose of this article is to attempt to determine how much the current gold bull market has left to offer, both in chronological and dollar terms. If one presumes that this gold bull is going to be similar to the last gold bull then we can begin to build up a picture of what gold may look like over the coming years, based on the events leading up to gold's all time high in 1980.

A commonly known figure amongst gold bugs is just over $2000, which is the figure you get when you adjust the 1980 high for inflation and represent it in terms of today's rapidly devaluing US Dollar. If this is to be the high for gold in the current bull then this would suggest that we have at least another $1000-$1500 rise in gold prices to come.

Kass: Harley Hogs Feed at the Subprime Trough

Judging by the commentary and the virtual invulnerability of worldwide equity prices, most see only a speed bump in the recent subprime scare. There is still a general belief on the part of the investment community that the mess is a containable fluke.

I have stressed the likelihood of a subprime contagion. After all, subprime is subprime and credit is correlated. Lower-quality, more-levered lending (with less collateral) is not confined to consumer loans, credit cards, homes, recreational vehicles and autos -- as investors might soon find out.

Subprime Mortgage Collapse Eviscerates California Headquarters

The words ``New Century'' used to flash several times a day on caller ID at Taleo Mexican Grill in Irvine, California, where diners wash down Salmon Veracruz with $7 hand-shaken margaritas. Reservations were often for 10 or more.

Not anymore, said Nic Villarreal, the owner of the restaurant, located two blocks from New Century Financial Corp.'s headquarters. ``We don't get any.''

Yen Rallies On Rising Risk Aversion; Dollar Falls After Data

The yen rallied Wednesday, touching a more than one-week high against the dollar, as investors reduced bets on riskier assets financed by cheap borrowing in the Japanese currency amid concerns over Iran and the U.S. housing market.

The dollar extended its losses after a government report showed orders for durable goods rose less than forecast last month. The disappointing reading comes after reports released earlier this week showed a larger-than-expected drop in U.S. consumer confidence and an unexpected plunge in sales of new homes.

Massachusetts Foreclosure Filings Reach a New High

Foreclosure filings in the state of Massachusetts were 85 percent higher in February when compared to the same period in 2006, according to a new report from ForeclosuresMass.com, a provider of Massachusetts foreclosure data.

April to See Formation of Natural Gas OPEC

Russia is forging ahead with the creation of a natural gas cartel, or a “gas opec,” it appears. In spite of Moscow denying for months such plans exist, Russian daily Kommersant reported March 19 that natural gas exporting countries have agreed to establish a gas consortium. “Last week vague conversations about the possible creation of a natural gas opec suddenly took off into the realm of the actual,” the paper stated.

A Brief History of Derivatives

The history of derivatives is quite colorful and surprisingly a lot longer than most people think. A few years ago I compiled a list of the events that I thought shaped the history of derivatives. That list is published in its entirety in the Winter1995 is sue of Derivatives Quarterly. What follows here is a snapshot of the major events that I think form the evolution of derivatives.

I would like to first note that some of these stories are controversial. Do they really involve derivatives? Or do the minds of people like myself and others see derivatives everywhere?

Subprime Foreclosures May Hit 2.4 Million, Group Says

As many as 2.4 million Americans may lose their homes because of the collapse of subprime lenders, the Center for Responsible Lending said in testimony to Congress.

Mike Calhoun, President of the Durham, North Carolina-based nonprofit group, told the U.S. House Committee on Financial Services that foreclosures will increase in coming months, and that subprime borrowing caused a net loss of a million U.S. homes between 1998 and 2006.

Carbon Trade Swindle Behind Gore Hoax

Look behind—if you dare—Al Gore and his science hoax, and you find the very same London-centered oligarchical financial crew that drove the 2003-2006 oil and commodity price increase, amidst the bubbles and hyperinflation that characterize the breakdown-phase of the financial system. The centerpiece of the U.S. emerging market for carbon emissions trading, is the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX), created in 2003 as a "voluntary," or pilot agency, part of a London-based network positioned to reproduce the oil bubble on a scale orders of magnitude greater and more dangerous, while at the same time, destroying what's left of the physical economy.

34 percent of homeowners are clueless about their mortgage

As concerns about subprime mortgages plague the nation's leaders and lenders, America's homeowners are confused and worried about their own mortgages, according to a recent poll commissioned by Bankrate.com.

What type of mortgage do you currently have? Source: Bankrate.com 2007

Fed Jeopardizes Dollar as It Neglects Its Mandate

The U.S. dollar collapsed to two-year lows against the euro as the Federal Reserve (Fed) takes its focus away from fighting inflation. The Fed has a dual mandate: price stability as well as full employment. With unemployment hovering near historic lows, why does the Fed neglect its mandate to fight inflation, thereby jeopardizing the dollar?

‘Biogas can replace natural gas in Europe by 2020’

‘Nobody needs natural gas!’ says a study on behalf of the German Green’s Bundestag faction and the Public Utility of Aachen. The result of the study is that in Europe, natural gas can be completely replaced by biogas by 2020. The study showed that a European biogas feed-in strategy is possible.

Saving and replacing natural gas is the answer to the imminent gas shortage in Europe. According to the study, Europe has a huge potential to save on natural gas, especially when it concerns using less gas for heating. Moreover, heat can be produced by renewable energy sources, such as solar collectors or wood pellets.

In small town America, some say Ethanol boom will hurt more than help the environment

This tiny western Kansas town, with its single-story frame homes that sidle up to neatly plowed fields, looks like just the place for one of the new ethanol plants that have been turning up across the Midwest.

Many of the 400 people around here certainly could use the jobs and money the plant would bring in. But others are worried about how much water would be needed to run the plant and grow the corn that is the base for most U.S. ethanol and requires more water than many other crops.

Romney declares Texas finance committee

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, seeking the GOP nod for president next year, aired his Texas statewide finance committee members today. We’ll guess there’s no overlap with the last Massachusetts fellow to run for president — U.S. Sen. John Kerry.

( Matt Simmons, CEO of Simmons and company international is on the list )

Pemex revises reserve figures

The nation has proven reserves of 15.51 billion barrels of oil equivalent, enough to meet demand into 2016, state-run petroleum giant Pemex said Monday

The proven reserves are 955 million barrels less than reported in 2005.

Japan's energy wisdom

An island nation with no domestic oil supply, Japan offers a glimpse into the world's energy future, when oil reserves decline to unsustainable levels and alternatives are the only alternative.

Nearly 10 years after the Kyoto global- warming summit meeting, the country still claims a leadership role in reducing carbon emissions. According to the International Energy Agency, Japan's energy consumption as a percentage of gross domestic product is the lowest in the world.

Why Africa Needs Its Own Opec

The world is seeing the rise of resources nationalism, with potentially far-reaching implications for South Africa and Africa, which are richly endowed with natural resources. Countries in South and Central America, Europe and Asia are crafting and implementing strategies to maximise returns from their natural resources to promote development and prosperity for their own people.

Africa, however, has thus far failed to leverage its natural competitive advantage as a force for prosperity and global competitiveness. It conspicuously lacks the appropriate strategic approaches to maximise returns from its mineral resources for the broader public good.

Dollar Drops Against Euro as U.S. Consumer Confidence Declines

The dollar fell against the euro and yen as a private report showed consumer confidence in the U.S. dropped this month, increasing the likelihood of a cut in borrowing costs by the Federal Reserve.

The U.S. currency also weakened as a private survey showed the price of homes in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas fell in January for the first time in at least six years and a Federal Reserve report showed a regional decline in manufacturing this month. U.S. consumer confidence declined in March from a five-year high as concern over mortgage delinquencies mounted.

Oil spikes late on Iran rumour; U.S. officials deny

Oil briefly surged $5 late Tuesday on rumours that conflict had broken out between Iran and the United States, then eased as the White House said there was nothing to indicate an incident had taken place.

U.S. crude prices jumped to $68.09 a barrel in electronic trade, the highest level since September 6, before falling down to $64.48. U.S. oil had earlier settled open outcry trade up 2 cents at $62.93, extending a five-day bull run that added more than $6 to the price.

Priest speaks against Federal Reserve (year - 1930s)

Interesting clip of Father Charles Coughlin Speaks against Federal Reserve banking cartel

Mishkin fuels inflation target

The Federal Reserve would have to think twice before trying to push inflation below 2 per cent, governor Frederic Mishkin has warned, in an explosive speech that is likely to unleash a fierce debate as to what the US central bank's inflation objective is and should be.

The speech challenges the market's belief that the Fed sets policy with the intention of returning inflation to a "comfort zone" of 1-2 per cent as measured by the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator.

China, Venezuela to cement ties with oil deals

Venezuela said on Saturday it was working on a raft of oil deals with China, giving impetus to President Hugo Chavez's attempts to break his country's dependence on oil exports to the United States.

The China National Petroleum Corp. will look to develop heavy crude oil production in the Orinoco Belt and cooperate with Venezuela in building three refineries in China and a "super-fleet" of crude tankers, the Information Ministry said.

Oil hits 2007 high on Iran tensions

No. 4 oil exporter defiant on atomic work after U.N. voted to impose new sanctions, sending oil above $63 a barrel.

Oil prices climbed to a 2007 high above $63 a barrel Monday on growing tension between Iran and the West over Tehran's nuclear work and its capture last week of British military personnel.

THE COMING WAR WITH IRAN

The timing of the recent incident in in which 15 British sailors were arrested by Iran at the mouth of the Shatt al-Arab waterway for purportedly entering Iranian waters couldn't have been more provocative if it had been planned that way. And perhaps it was. The question is, however, who did the planning?

Has the Dollar met with destiny?

To many observers a strong dollar has always been there, is something they have grown up with and that its continuing strength, no matter what happens, is nothing less than a fait a complis. We are concerned by what we sense is a dangerously complacent attitude (as revealed in the chart below) and, in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s decision to adopt a de facto neutral bias to monetary policy, by what we see as a move which potentially triggers the dollar’s date with destiny.

Dollar Declines As Housing Outlook Worsens

The loose thread from last week’s solidly packed economic calendar, Monday’s new home sales report tipped the scales for fundamentalists torn between strong lagging indicators and a distinct cooling in more timely reports.

After the worse-than-expected number hit the wires, the dollar cut its two session advance short with big moves across the majors. For EURUSD, the data was met with a 70-point rally to a 1.3350 high that was 100 points off of overnight lows. In a more intense dollar move, USDCHF slid 85 points in 30 minutes to test key support around 1.2120/10. Making a technical move of its own, GBPUSD extended a rally that began in the London session for a 140-point climb to mark a double top with Thursday’s high at 1.9725. Finally, USDJPY continues to carve out a convincing ascending triangle following a test high around 118.45 and a subsequent turn around 117.65.

Subprime Defaults May Spread to Auto Bonds, S&P Says

Bonds backed by automobile loans may be hurt by rising subprime mortgage defaults as people with poor credit struggle with their household debt, according to Standard & Poor's.

Capital One Financial Corp., Wachovia Corp., Wells Fargo & Co., and other lenders have lent more funds to people with bad credit scores in the past few years to sustain growth, S&P said today in a report by analysts led by Mark Risi. The loans are also for longer terms, increasing the probability of default, the analysts said. About 68 percent of 2006 subprime auto loans were due in five years or more, Risi said.

Morgan Stanley to Sell Subprime Lender’s Loans

Morgan Stanley said yesterday that it would auction $2.48 billion of residential mortgages from the troubled subprime lender New Century Financial.

The New Century loans are collateral pledged to Morgan Stanley for a $2.5 billion credit line; about $2.48 billion of the line was used to make loans.

U.S. Economy: Home Sales Drop to Lowest Since 2000

New-home sales in the U.S. unexpectedly fell in February to the lowest level in almost seven years, dimming prospects for a quick revival in housing.

The supply of unsold homes climbed to the highest in 16 years, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Purchases dropped 3.9 percent to an annual pace of 848,000 last month. Economists had forecast they would rise to a 985,000 rate, based on the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey.

Energy Briefs - Courtesy Peak Oil Review

. Russia has informed Iran that it will withhold nuclear fuel for Iran’s nearly completed Bushehr power plant unless Iran suspends its uranium enrichment as demanded by the United Nations Security Council, European, American and Iranian officials say. Iran is now asking more clients to pay for oil in currencies other than the dollar and 60 per cent or more of its crude income is already in other units, an official said yesterday.

• Expenditures for drilling, seismic surveying, and work-over programs in Russia amounted to $11.4 billion in 2006 and are forecast to rise to $22.5 billion by 2011, according to a recent study from energy analyst Douglas-Westwood Ltd.

• Hugo Chavez announced that China will become Venezuela’s top oil customer by 2012 by increasing its purchases from the current 150,000 b/d to 1 million b/d. The US currently purchases 1.5 million b/d from Venezuela.

• China is on course to overtake the United States this year as the world's biggest carbon emitter, according to the US Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center. Chinese emissions rose by 9-10 percent in 2005 and 2006, and are likely to do the same this year. Last week the head of China’s Development and Reform Commission said that it is imperative that China move from a high energy-consuming economy to one that provides for more sustainable development.
• Energy consumption in the transport sector of the EU-25 grew 28.6 percent between 1990 and 2004. Improvements in fuel efficiency were offset by increases in passenger and freight transport demand. Total energy consumption grew by 12.6 percent during the same period.

• Refinery project cancellations have increased in recent weeks as escalating costs raise more questions over the future profitability of new refining capacity. Kuwait’s energy minister said he might scrap a plan to build a 615,000 bpd oil refinery and upgrade an existing plant instead. Plans for new refineries in Turkey and Angola were dropped or scaled back.

• Kazakhstan may order foreign oil companies to scale back plans for tripling crude extraction by 2015, in order to protect the environment. Chevron, the UK's BG Group and a group led by Italy's Eni, are trying to increase Kazakh oil production to 3 million b/d by 2015.

• Carbon emissions: The UK’s environmental secretary proposed legislation to enforce a 26-32% cut in carbon emissions by 2020 which could have significant implications for energy companies. The bill aims to slash emissions by 60% by 2050 and would create a legal framework for transition to a low-carbon economy.

• Alt fuels: The US Energy Secretary and EPA Administrator sent a proposal to the House Committee on Energy and Commerce proposing legislation requiring 35 billion gallons of alternative motor fuel —15% of projected gasoline use—by 2017. The new standard would require US ethanol and alternative fuel consumption to reach 10 billion gallons in 2010.

• The chances of powerful Atlantic hurricanes barreling into the US this season are much greater than usual according to a British-led group of scientists. The experts on insurance, risk management and seasonal climate forecasting said it was the highest March forecast for hurricane activity since 1984. "The sudden El Nino dissipation is the main reason for the forecast for hurricane activity in 2007 rising from 60 percent above-normal to 75 percent above-norm in March."

• Petroleos Mexicanos, the third- biggest oil supplier to the U.S., said its reserves of oil and natural gas have dropped by half since 2002 because of a lack of investment, leaving the company in a ``critical'' situation.

• Brisbane’s taskforce on peak oil and climate change has identified that the city’s response to these challenges may actually provide economic opportunities for the city (e.g. through developing sustainable industries such as manufacturing of water-efficient technologies) and that the city will be able to save money by planning now to adapt to these future challenges.

• Asia's demand for oil will nearly double over the next 25 years and will account for 85 per cent of the increased demand in 2007, organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) officials forecast Thursday at a Bangkok-hosted energy conference. China and South/South-East Asia collectively accounted for around 17 per cent of world oil demand in 2005. The OPEC scenario projects this to rise sharply to around 29 per cent in 2030.

• Growing global competition for scarce enriched uranium threatens to derail a much-heralded nuclear renaissance in the United States and around the world. In a report released yesterday, MIT researcher Thomas Neff said there has been 20 years of under-investment in uranium production and enrichment, resulting in a tightening of supply that has driven prices up eightfold.

Peak oil thriller hits German best-seller list

A peak oil thriller from a popular German novelist has hit the best-seller lists. The 750-page novel is written in a style like that of Michael Crichton's techno-thrillers, and covers many of the themes discussed in the peak oil community.

Ausgebrannt ("Burned Out" in English) was published in February and reached #7 on the Spiegel best-seller list (it's now #10).

German author Andreas Eschbach has written over a dozen novels, including several best-sellers. He is widely known as a German science fiction writer. Several of his books have been translated into English.

Standup Congress Interviews Ron Paul

When foreclosure looms

Charles McCloud had never owned a home, but as he entered his late 50s he thought it was time to have the security and stability that would come from having a place of his own.

So two years ago, he bought a detached two-story house on a quiet corner in the Howard Park section of West Baltimore for $225,000, borrowing the money for the closing costs and taking out two loans, one of which had an interest rate of more than 10 percent.

What realty agents won't tell you

Fair-housing laws prevent agents from talking about neighborhood demographics, and they often don't want to discuss other details, such as crime stats. Luckily, the Web picks up where agents leave off.

OPEC Dictates Higher Prices, Scarcity as Crude Rises

Saudi Arabia is shipping less oil to customers. OPEC by February reduced daily output by 1 million barrels. Global inventories this year fell the most in a decade.

Credit Ali al-Naimi, oil minister of Saudi Arabia, the world's largest exporter, who told OPEC members that production cuts would stop a six-month decline in oil. Crude this year rebounded 26 percent from a 20-month low to $62.51 a barrel.

T. Boone Pickens to discuss peak oil concerns with Midland audience

T. Boone Pickens made a name for himself in the late 1970s and early 1980s when he was labeled a corporate raider for efforts to take over companies like Gulf Oil Co., which ended up being absorbed by Chevron.

The Texas-based oil man, son of an Oklahoma oil man, protests he never considered himself a corporate raider. But since those days, he has switched his focus to what he says is a looming crude shortage, and will be bringing that message to Midland April 4. He will speak at Midland College's Chaparral Center beginning at 7:30 p.m. The event is free and no tickets are required.

Splish, Splash - The Dollar's Taking a Bath!

This past week saw the dollar flail like the new kid in swimming class, accidentally in over his head. Remember him? Splish...splash...splosh....gurgle... He's up! He's down! Finally, the instructor takes pity and hauls him closer into the shallow end. For a time, despite significant rescue attempts, it seemed as though the dollar might actually be allowed to sail under 82.00. Then, just like a clock, on Friday the dollar straightened out and held the line....at 83.00. Precisely, too - not 82.99 and not 83.01. Precisely, exactly 83.00 was its close. What a coincidence! I must be psychotic. Or is that psychic? I keep confusing the two.

Ignoring foreign debt puts dollar in peril

THE plunge in the Shanghai share market three weeks ago now seems a distant memory, but the extraordinary gyrations it caused in the value of the Australian dollar expose a fault line beneath our economic prosperity.

The growth of foreign debt is almost ignored in the regular parade of economic statistics, but new research from the Bank for International Settlements shows it has made the Australian dollar more vulnerable to capital flight than almost any other currency in the world. Only the Turkish lira is more exposed.

It's Been Four, Long, Bloody, Murdering Years...With Still No Reason "WHY??"

On the occasion of the fourth anniversary of the War In Iraq...some thoughts:
It has been four long, bloody, expensive, murdering years...with still no reason "WHY?"!

Even now..now that there has been substantial evidence that the President, the Vice President, and other high-ranking members of the Bush administration misled Congress and the American people regarding the decision to go to war with Iraq... and misstated and manipulated intelligence information regarding the justification for said war...

Housing Bust Recovery in 1930s

Peak Oil News Story on CBC - Canada

IMF to urge further depreciation in dollar-paper

The International Monetary Fund will say further depreciation by the U.S. dollar is needed to help correct global imbalances in its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO), Germany's Sueddeutsche Zeitung said on Saturday.

Quoting from a draft of the WEO, the paper said the Washington-based fund argued "extraordinarily aggressively" for a correction in exchange rates, above all so as to reduce the massive U.S. current account deficit.

Iran gets 60 pct of oil income in non-USD

Iran, embroiled in a nuclear row with the United States, is asking more clients to pay for oil in currencies other than the dollar and 60 percent of its crude income is in other units, an official said on Thursday.

Hojjatollah Ghanimifard, international affairs director of state-owned National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC), told Reuters almost all of Iran's European clients and some of its Asian customers had accepted making payments in non-dollar currencies.

Capitalist Conspiracy: An Inside View of International Banking by G. Edward Griffin

A video adaption of a documentary filmstrip tracing the history of a small group of people who control the money systems of the world. It shows how this monopoly is protected by governments and how the group's vast wealth is derived from creating money out of nothing. We see how this group wields power through government, foundations, education, and the mass media. 48-minute video.

Giant oil fields and their importance for future oil production

Giant Oil Fields - The Highway to Oil:
Giant Oil Fields and their Importance for Future Oil Production

Since the 1950s, oil has been the dominant source of energy in the world. The cheap supply of oil has been the engine for economic growth in the western world. Since future oil demand is expected to increase, the question to what extent future production will be available is important.

Peak Oil Passnotes: Market Disconnect 2

If supply and demand were in some kind of balance that just needed leaving alone, we would live in paradise. Unfortunately for neo-classical economists their narrow view of human existence - and the economic theories that emanate from it - fails to take into account people like OPEC, Gordon Brown and the American driver.

It is genuinely hard for some Europeans and the rest of the world to realize just how much Americans need their cars. I say ‘need’ as in the type of ‘need’ a junkie has for his rocks, not ‘need’ as in we need to drink water every six days or we die. The more dependent use of the word.

Massive Diversion Of U.S. Grain To Fuel Cars Is Raising World Food Prices

"If you think you are spending more each week at the supermarket, you may be right. The escalating share of the U.S. grain harvest going to ethanol distilleries is driving up food prices worldwide," says Lester Brown, President of Earth Policy Institute. (See report.)

Corn prices have doubled over the last year, wheat futures are trading at their highest level in 10 years, and rice prices are rising too. A Bloomberg analysis notes that the soaring use of corn as the feedstock for fuel ethanol "is creating unintended consequences throughout the global food chain."

Business Professors Say Subprime "Bailouts" A Bad Idea

Senator Chris Dodd has been "mulling" over the need for legislation to rescue borrowers who may have been "victims" of predatory lending practices and now, thanks to the fact that their adjustable rate loans are adjusting, risk default and foreclosure. Forbearance by legislative fiat may be in order, according to Dodd. He's not in favor of bailing out the bad-boy lenders, however. They can stew in their own juices.

Countrywide: 2006 subprime defaults might be new worst

An executive of Countrywide Financial Corp. told a government panel that the company's subprime mortgage defaults in 2006 may top the company's 2000 results where foreclosure rate was 9.89 percent, according to Reuters reports.

The 2000 results were the company's "worst single origination year," Sandor Samuels, the company's executive managing director, said in prepared remarks, according to Reuters.

Uranium Market Still Has a Long Way to Run

As the name suggests the Geiger Counter fund [LSE:GCL] focuses on the uranium and nuclear energy markets. It was launched last July at 50 pence per share (as covered in a previous Resource Investor article), and has since enjoyed almost uninterrupted growth, with the price more than doubling to close today at 104 pence.

The independent investment advisor to Geiger Counter is NCIM (New City Investment Managers), a company established in 2004 with a flying pig as a logo, on the basis that the directors regularly hear presentations from potential investee companies who hope that their business proposition is going to flourish, yet often there is a greater chance that pigs may fly!

Ron Paul — Federal Reserve To Blame For Housing Bubble

I’ve been one of the doomsayers regarding America’s economy, with the impending collapse of the subprime lending market (which I think will create a nasty recession). As with any economic downturn, the government and the media will be looking for someone to blame. Ron Paul suggests that we place our sights directly on the Fed.

The US dollar is losing ground against some but not all currencies

The US dollar is losing ground against some but not all currencies, and as the smaller ones are leading many have not really registered the moves. Monday the Slovakian koruna was revalued against the Euro and it moved to a mere 24.585 to the dollar, its strongest ever; Tuesday the Australian dollar reached $0.8093, above pivotal resistance at $0.8000; likewise the Kiwi at $0.7159 a new high for this year. Thursday Canada (C$1.1530) and Cable ($1.9729) were dragged along by these and Wednesday’s Euro move (see below). Equity indices rallied this week and have now recovered half or more of February’s sudden losses, as they believe that were the Fed to ease sooner rather than later business would benefit. Commodities generally have a bid tone but are not racing away or grabbing headlines. ICE Brent futures at $63.67 (as Iran holds British Navy personnel) posted a new high this year; CBOT Oats at 296 cents per bushel matching the 1996 high and in turn about the most expensive in thirty years; NYMEX Cocoa at $1,919 per metric tonne, highest since June 2003. Interest rates held in tight ranges as many continue to ponder what is or is not needed in different countries.

Gore: Climate change "a planetary crisis"

Former Vice President Al Gore brought his global-warming message to Congress on Wednesday, using his newfound star status to push for aggressive and far-reaching policy changes.

"What we're facing now is a crisis that's the most serious we've ever faced," Gore told lawmakers on a House panel. "We do not have time to play around with this anymore."

The Convenient Truth

In October, British Prime Minister Tony Blair called for "radical international measures" to curtail greenhouse-gas emissions, and fast. "We can't wait the five years it took to negotiate Kyoto," he said. Apparently, 2012 is too late. In hopes of taking stronger steps, however, many U.S. environmentalists want to defer any legislation until President Bush is out of office. Apparently 2007 and 2008 are too early. That gives us precisely three years -- 2009, 2010, and 2011 -- to save the planet.

Potential Solutions to Peak Oil Crisis

Within the last decade or so climate change or global warming has gone from being a fringe issue of environmental groups to a major concern of all the main political parties...

How the US sub-prime market got out of control

Stock markets around the world have bounced strongly this week, following the turmoil earlier this month.

In no small part, this was down to the Federal Reserve changing the wording on its latest interest rate statement on Wednesday. It left the key US interest rate exactly where it was, but indicated it was slightly more worried about growth, and a little less concerned about inflation.

Uranium Depletion and Nuclear Power: Are We at Peak Uranium?

A recent post by Martin Sevior has invigorated the nuclear energy debate causing over 240 comments with the most diverse opinions. I would like to further pursue this debate, as the question of whether nuclear power can provide a big part of the worlds energy needs is extremely important in the Peak Oil debate, because it is the only alternative energy source beside coal providing the type of electricity production necessary for the current electric grid model: big, base-load capable power plants. If that role is fulfilled, the current electricity production system can continue beyond Peak Oil, and even expand to provide the energy necessary for electrified transport. If it falls short, a new energy model is needed.

Russia Tests Bush on Iran

Russia has now turned the tables on Ahmadinejad and his nuclear weapons program. Prior to this week, Ahmadinejad was coasting to an easy win on nuclear issues even while picking up a dominant Iranian position in Iraq and the Middle East for a bonus prize. The Bush Administration was rolling out the red carpet for Ahmadinejad at the United Nations. Not a single leading US politician voiced opposition to the US visas provided for him and his entourage of 100 "diplomats." Ahmadinejad, it appeared, was unstoppable.

Time to Make a Deal?

Washington has finally outmaneuvered Tehran. The question now is how Iran's leaders will respond—and whether this could rescue Bush's legacy.

U.S. forces are massing on Iran, and soon it will be time to strike. No, not militarily—that would be the height of insanity—but diplomatically. The Americans and Europeans are close to achieving the leverage they have long sought against Tehran through a deftly managed policy of political encirclement and economic strangulation. Just two big pieces still need to fall into place: a sign from Iran that it is willing to suspend uranium enrichment, at least temporarily, and a willingness on the part of George W. Bush to take yes for an answer—and strike a deal.

U.S. Real Estate Crash?

Wall Street and other stock markets experienced a rough ride again last week, in large part due to investors’ fears concerning the U.S. property market.

Of particular concern are the rumblings that several mortgage companies are experiencing financial difficulties caused by overexposure to the formerly hot U.S. real estate market through sub-prime mortgages. In other words, during fierce competition, too many firms lent too much money to those willing to borrow too much.

Apocalypse Soon?

A horse and buggy will be more useful than a Hummer after the fall, says UA Professor Guy McPherson.

"We have difficulty talking about the most important issues that face us," says Bob Cook. Professor Guy McPherson understands why it's hard for people to accept it when he says the world as they know it is about to end.

Derivatives help, but don't ban risk-Fed officials

Booming credit derivative markets have spread risks more widely but have not made them disappear, top Federal Reserve officials said on Thursday as U.S. lawmakers debated the financial stress arising from the problems of subprime mortgage borrowers.

"I want to emphasize that the fundamental risks in credit markets have not been changed by the new instruments that are now being traded," Federal Reserve Governor Randall Kroszner told a credit market conference.

Subprime Mortgages: A Primer

Lawmakers on Capitol Hill are demanding answers from regulators and lenders about subprime mortgages. Many worry that rising mortgage defaults and lender failures could hurt America's overall banking system. Already, the subprime crisis has been blamed for steep declines in the stock market. But just what is a subprime loan — and why should you care? Here, a primer:

Fremont General to sell $4B of its subprime residential loans

Fremont General Corp. has entered into whole loan sale agreements to sell about $4 billion of its subprime residential real estate loans that will result in a pre-tax loss of about $140 million, the company said Wednesday.

The company has already received about $950 million in cash in its first sale installment, and remaining sales under the agreements are expected to be complete in the next several weeks, Fremont said in a release. The loans are being sold at a discount, reflecting the current subprime mortgage market conditions.

Fed Says It Could Have Acted Sooner on Subprime Rout

The Federal Reserve could have acted faster to prevent a meltdown in the subprime-mortgage market by curbing the lax lending standards that contributed to the crisis, the Fed's chief bank supervisor said.

``Given what we know now, yes, we could have done more sooner,'' Roger Cole, the Fed's director of banking supervision and regulation, told the Senate Banking Committee in Washington today, as regulators testified for the first time before Congress on the market rout.

Mortgage Meltdown

With mortgage foreclosures spiking and the subprime mortgage disaster unfolding (thirty lenders are already bankrupt with more to come), the damage is spreading as foreclosures and outright home abandonments rise among homeowners with adjustable rate mortgages as higher interest rates raise monthly mortgage bills beyond homeowners' ability to pay.

No Debt = No Money

How money is created out of thin air.

Russia struggles to kick dollar habit

President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday watered down plans to ban officials from using the word "dollar" after Kremlin bosses, and Putin himself, found it hard to kick their habit and use "roubles" instead.

Russian deputies last year gave initial approval to a draft law that would have fined government ministers for using the words "dollars" or "euro" when "roubles" could be used.

Bernanke Sez

Why the Economy Cannot Withstand More Mortgage Foreclosure

According to the Wall Street Journal, the "Economy Can Withstand More Mortgage Foreclosures." However, when you read the article, you realize that the optimistic outlook depends on two very big -- and very unlikely -- assumptions.

About 1.1 million foreclosures are likely to result from jumps in monthly payments on adjustable-rate home-mortgage loans made in 2004 through 2006, according to a study by First American CoreLogic.

Despite low rates, mortgage demand falls

Application activity drops for the first time in four weeks, Mortgage Bankers Association's seasonally adjusted index says.

Mortgage applications fell last week for the first time in four weeks, reflecting a drop in demand for home refinancing, even as interest rates hovered near recent lows, an industry trade group said Wednesday.

House buyers have more to choose from in Portland

Portland-area house buyers are finding more inventory to choose from as the market starts to cool.

The overall number of houses for sale jumped by 80 percent, to 9,901 on March 1, from 5,503 a year ago, according to figures from the Regional Multiple Listing Service.

`Short Sellers' Who Predicted Subprime Rout See More Declines

The collapse in shares of subprime- mortgage companies over the past month rewarded so-called short sellers who bet that rising defaults among the riskiest borrowers would curb lenders' profits.

Some traders who predicted declines in shares of New Century Financial Corp., NovaStar Financial Inc. and Accredited Home Lenders Holding Co. say such stocks may fall further as loan delinquencies increase and demand for mortgage-backed securities wanes. New Century sank 90 percent last month, while NovaStar lost 73 percent. Accredited slid 54 percent.

Seven Questions: The Ethanol Effect

Ethanol, often derided as a political boondoggle or hailed as the key to energy independence, is finally taking off. But the resulting boom in corn prices is pushing up the cost of basic foods in the developing world. For this week’s Seven Questions, FP asked Lester Brown of the Earth Policy Institute what’s going on.

Pemex reserves plunging

Petroleos Mexicanos, the third- biggest oil supplier to the U.S., said its reserves of oil and natural gas have dropped by half since 2002 because of a lack of investment, leaving the company in a "critical" situation.

Jesus Reyes Heroles, the chief executive officer of Pemex, said the Mexican government, Congress, workers and society need to come up with a new model for operating the company, which is state-owned, to reverse declining reserves and production. The company needs to be taxed less, provided more money for investment and given leeway to make decisions, he said.

The Peak Oil Crisis: Situations To Watch

Evidence is mounting that oil prices will soon climb to new, perhaps unaffordable for many, highs. Some think “soon” is three, four, or five years away. Others think “soon” may be as close as three, four, five, or six months. It is this latter scenario in which oil and gasoline prices reach new highs before the year is out that we look at today.

Everyone, of course, understands that at anytime a bolt from the blue could seriously curtail world oil supplies and run prices to unimagined highs in a matter of days or weeks. Such an impossible-to-anticipate event might be an assassination, a coup, a new war, a terrorist strike or even a well-placed storm.

Subprime Meltdown: Who's to Blame and How Should We Fix It?

Troubles in the subprime mortgage industry seem to be spreading. The stock market is in turmoil. Alan Greenspan and other economists say the economy is being hurt. Consumer groups predict that up to two million Americans will lose their homes.

Should the government do something?

OIL PRICES MORE THAN JUST A FUNCTION

As the global hunt for new oil reserves continues to escalate, attention focuses almost entirely upon supply and the development of the technology necessary to assure demand is met. But don't other factors enter into the equation?

Subprime risk: Most vulnerable markets

If the doomsayers are correct, as many as 2.2 million subprime borrowers are at risk of defaulting on their loans and losing their homes.

As foreclosures rise and credit tightens, housing markets across the nation may suffer - though some are clearly more vulnerable than others.

Cramer reveals a bit too much

Inflation is eating US wage gains

Brian Fortinberry, who runs Front Range Barbecue in Colorado Springs, Colo., is feeling the brunt of a spike in prices.

Beef costs about 10 percent more than it did in January, he says. Fruit and lettuce are also pricier. Gasoline has gone up, adding to costs when his restaurant does a catering job. And Colorado voters just raised the minimum wage – pushing up his payroll tab.

"We haven't increased our prices, but we're looking to do that," Mr. Fortinberry says. "Eventually you have to pass it along."

China to stop accumulating foreign reserves - Zhou

China will stop stockpiling its massive foreign exchange reserves, China's central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said in an interview published on Tuesday.

"Many people say that foreign exchange reserves in China are (already) large enough," Zhou told the Emerging Markets magazine, whose latest issue was released at a meeting of the Inter-American Development Bank in Guatemala.

Saudi production laid bare

A couple of weeks ago I made a comment saying that we needed data on producing wells and drilling history in order to further analyse Saudi oil production. In answer to my wish Kyle posted a comment with this link to the OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin which contains all this information - well almost.

So is Saudi production about to nosedive?

Energy briefs ( courtesy Peak Oil Review )

• New estimates of costs for the Mackenzie gas pipeline project have hit $16.2 billion, up from an original estimate of $4 billion; completion has been rescheduled to 2014.
• Alberta oil sands producers face growing political risks that could significantly erode their profit margins and slow the pace of development. Regulations aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions and possible changes to federal and provincial tax treatment of the projects are among the issues. Canada’s Natural Resources said the government has been talking with the producers all along and they are well aware that pollution reduction requirements are coming.
• In a surprise announcement, OPEC announced that Ecuador did not formally leave the cartel when it withdrew in 1992, but only "suspended" its participation. Ecuador is therefore eligible to rejoin the cartel at any time.
• Chevron dropped plans to build a $650 million liquefied natural gas terminal off Mexico's West Coast near the U.S. border, ending a four-year battle with environmentalists who feared the project would harm delicate plant, sea mammal, and bird habitats.
• The UK was a net importer of oil for most of 2006, according to the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre in Aberdeen. "It is time for the UK government to let go of the idea that the UK will be a net oil exporter until 2010 and accept we are now dependent on imports."
• Britain could become the first nation to limit emissions by statute. In its draft Climate Change Bill the government said carbon dioxide emissions had to be cut by 60 percent by 2050, set out five-year carbon cutting budgets to reach the target and created an independent monitoring committee to check progress.
• Russia agreed to a deal to build a major oil pipeline across Bulgaria and Greece that will supply Russian oil to Europe. The announcement comes at a time when EU leaders have become increasingly anxious about their dependence on Russia for a third of their oil and 40% of their natural gas.
• China is trying to cut energy consumption for each unit of GDP by 20 percent by 2010; however in 2006 it was only able to cut energy consumption by 1.23 percent, less than a third of its target.
• The US plans to buy up to 4 million barrels of crude oil to begin replacing the 11 million barrels sold from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve after Hurricane Katrina struck in August 2005. The crude is to be delivered in May to sites in Texas or Louisiana.
• According to the U.N. the world’s population will likely increase by 2.5 billion to 9.3 billion people over the next 43 years from the current 6.7 billion. This increase is equivalent to the number of people in the world in 1950.
• An interdisciplinary panel from MIT released a report saying that that carbon capture and sequestration is the critical enabling technology to help reduce CO2 emissions significantly while also allowing coal to meet the world's energy needs. The panel held that the U.S. must take the lead in showing the world CCS can work.
• The U.N. Security Council's five major powers and Germany have agreed in principle to ban all Iranian arms exports and freeze the financial assets of 28 Iranian officials and institutions. President Ahmadinejad intends to lead a delegation to address the U.N.’s Security Council when the resolution is formally adopted. Meanwhile, Russia has halted work on the nuclear power plant it is building in Iran until Tehran resumes paying for the work.
• Geologist Craig Hatfield said recently that in 1994 he was pressured by the USGS to substitute "2020" for "2010" as his forecast of when world oil production would peak. His current view: "I would not be surprised to see world oil production start to decrease any time between now and 2013; I will if it does not start to diminish until after 2015."

Esso/BHP could put carbon under sea

THE State Government's new guidelines for assessing projects with significant carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions are about to get their first big test. The Esso/BHP Billiton Bass Strait joint venture has asked the Minister for Planning whether a new gas conditioning plant at Longford requires an Environmental Effects Statement.

The gas conditioning plant is required to treat new production from the Kipper gas field. The downside is that it would emit a million tonnes of CO 2 every year. While not quite in the same league as a coal-fired power station, this is not the right approach to achieving urgent CO 2 reductions.

Russia said worried over Iran's nuclear ambitions

Russia on Tuesday disputed a report that it gave Iran an ultimatum to halt uranium enrichment but diplomats say Moscow has linked sending Tehran nuclear fuel to proliferation concerns.

Russian officials vigorously denied a New York Times story which said Moscow had told Tehran that unless it suspend uranium enrichment Russia would withhold fuel for a light water reactor being built at Bushehr, in southern Iran.

DJ BIG PICTURE: Housing Starts Comeback - A False Spring?

Despite all the problems of the housing sector, housing starts recorded a larger than expected partial rebound in February.

It's tempting to read in Tuesday's data a housing sector bouncing along a bottom, but the problems with subprime lending will likely signal renewed weakness in the months to come.

Dollar May Decline on Bets Fed Will Shift to Reflect Housing

The dollar may extend its drop versus the yen on bets the Federal Reserve will change its statement to reflect a deteriorating housing market.

Some traders said the central bank may remove language from its statement saying housing has stabilized. The dollar fell yesterday against the yen on expectation a weakening housing market may lead the Fed to reduce borrowing costs sooner. All 94 of the economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect policy makers today to maintain the benchmark lending rate at 5.25 percent.

The Mexican Peak Oil crisis: Lowest rate of oil output in 7 years

Sean Brodrick at Money and Markets writes that it appears Peak Oil has affected Mexico, as, “In December 2005, Mexico sent the U.S. 1.7 million barrels of oil per day (bpd). This past December, Mexico only exported 1.2 million bpd to the U.S.”

He asks, “Why is Mexico sending less oil?” For some reason, I thought that he was really asking a question, so I leap up and say, “Because they are selling it to China and India and everywhere else, but they don’t need the money, anyway, because my appetite for tacos is off the charts here lately, and they are making plenty of money that way! And speaking of tacos, that sounds good! Let’s break for lunch! Your turn to buy! Let’s go! Hup! Hup! Move it! Let’s go, go, go!”

Will the Global Warming Scare Go the Way of Y2K?

As it turns out, popular science does believe in the Apocalypse. However, instead of lifting the veil on truth, as etymologically implied, it seems to insist the world is ending, faulting humans themselves for causing a man-made global warming. Throughout history, politicians have used fear to control their constituencies. Within the last century however, they have been joined by corporations and the media in a massive orgy that purposefully provokes conflicts, crises, and confrontations to further their respective goals.

OPEC "Complacency" To Send Oil Price On Upward Spiral

The decision by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to maintain its current output policy Thursday could lead to a sharp spike in oil prices, warned the London-based Centre for Global Energy Studies Monday.

“OPEC's complacency in Vienna has set the scene for another upward price spiral," said the CGES in its monthly oil report.

Fannie, Freddie Wary of Controls

Executives of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac invoked the upheaval in the mortgage market yesterday as a reason for lawmakers to be cautious about subjecting them to stricter regulation.

The recent meltdown in unconventional home loans provided political ammunition for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac just as House members are poised to move ahead on long-delayed legislation aimed at tightening controls on the federally chartered mortgage-funding companies.

Foreclosures to spike as new rates kick in

About 1.1 million additional home foreclosures are expected over the next six years as adjustable-rate mortgages - which made home buying more affordable to U.S. buyers in recent years - reset to higher payments, according to a study by research firm First American CoreLogic.

The expected $112 billion in losses won't break the mortgage industry but will inflict pain on lenders and borrowers affected by the defaults, said the study, released Monday.

The dangers of investing in subprime debt

Fortune's Bethany McLean explains how the credit-rating agencies got in the middle of the subprime-lending crisis.

Amid the chaos of the escalating subprime mortgage crisis, the three major credit-rating agencies - Fitch, Moody's and Standard & Poor's - have been voices of calm. They've downgraded only a sliver of the debt backed by such mortgages, and they say they expect the mess to stay safely confined to the subprime sector.

U.S. Homebuilder Confidence Index Falls This Month

U.S. homebuilders turned more pessimistic this month on concern that buyers will find it harder to obtain loans after a wave of defaults in the subprime mortgage market.

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo index of sentiment fell to 36 this month from February's revised 39, the first decline since September, the Washington-based association said today. A reading below 50 means most respondents view conditions as poor.

Fremont General Gives Mortgage Staff Two-Month Dismissal Notice

Fremont General Corp., the California thrift trying to sell its home-lending business, told the unit's staff they may be dismissed in two months.

Employees will receive pay and benefits through May 18 unless they take other jobs, Kyle Walker, chief executive officer of the Fremont Investment & Loan subsidiary, told employees on a March 16 conference call. Fremont posted a recording of the call on a toll-free playback line. Walker cited the ``uncertainty of this situation'' at Santa Monica, California-based Fremont.

Ron Paul Officially Runs For President - C-SPAN Part 4 of 4

Ron Paul Officially Runs For President - C-SPAN Part 3 of 4

Ron Paul Officially Runs For President - C-SPAN Part 2 of 4

Ron Paul Officially Runs For President - C-SPAN Part 1 of 4

Pimco Says Subprime Woes May Spread to Alt-A, Jumbo

Pacific Investment Management Co.,(PIMCO) the fund manager that first predicted a collapse in U.S. home prices almost two years ago, said today that losses on subprime mortgage will spread to other ``aggressively underwritten'' loans.

The Great Unraveling

by Stephen Roach ( Morgan Stanley Managing Directory and Chief Economist )

From bubble to bubble – it’s a painfully familiar saga. First equities, now housing. First denial, then grudging acceptance. It’s the pattern and its repetitive character that is so striking. For the second time in seven years, asset-dependent America has gone to excess. And once again, twin bubbles in a particular asset class and the real economy are in the process of bursting – most likely with greater-than-expected consequences for the US economy, a US-centric global economy, and world financial markets.

Nigerian pipeline spill could impat U.S. gasoline supplies

A pipeline spill in the Niger Delta region has cut production by 187,000 barrels per day. There is no known cause for the leak and no timeline for repairs. This may prove important for the U.S. as Nigerian crude is light and sweet, which makes it ideal for producing gasoline. As the United States heads toward the summer driving season, these grades are more sought after.

Peak Oil? Turkish Diesel is close to 300$ a barrel

Turkey is not a G8 country, not it has any significant oil and gas reserves. The country is still struggling to decide whether to reform its system for EU membership or continue with the current establishment and seek other alternatives.

Russia bolsters Gulf energy strategy

President Putin's high-profile tour to the Gulf follows on from the visit of King Abdullah, then Crown Prince, to Moscow in 2003, the highest ranking Saudi official visit to Russia since 1926. Significantly an agreement was reached to co-ordinate energy policies. A momentum now seems to be building up following this.

Climate-change cures may be worse than the disease

When Canadian climate scientist Andrew Weaver considers the idea of tinkering with Earth's air, water or sunlight to fight global warming, he remembers the lessons of a favourite children's book.

In the book, a cheese-loving king's castle is infested with mice. So the king brings in cats to get rid of the mice. Then the castle's overrun with cats, so he brings in dogs to get rid of them, then lions to get rid of the dogs, elephants to get rid of the lions, and finally, mice to get rid of the elephants.

Gold May Extend Rally on Investor Demand for Inflation Hedge

Gold may rise for a third straight week on speculation that rising energy costs will boost the appeal of the precious metal as a hedge against inflation.

Twenty-three of the 32 traders, investors and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg from Sydney to Chicago on March 15 and March 16 advised buying gold, which rose 0.3 percent to $653.90 an ounce last week on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Three said to sell and five were neutral.

DOE Issues Solicitation for Purchase of Oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) today announced that it will seek solicitations to purchase up to four million barrels of crude oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). This is the first of a series of solicitations planned to replace 11 million barrels of oil sold in the fall of 2005 after Hurricane Katrina disrupted refinery supplies. This would be the first direct purchase of crude oil for the reserve since 1994. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve will use the proceeds from the emergency sale totaling $584 million to complete the purchases.

Global warming is a 'weapon of mass destruction'

Global warming is a "weapon of mass destruction", one of Britain and the world's top climatologists said yesterday.

Sir John Houghton, former director-general of the Meteorological Office and chairman of the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, entered the debate over the seriousness of climate change after two meteorologists were reported as saying that "some scientists have been guilty of overplaying the available evidence". He said he agreed with the Government's chief scientist, Professor Sir David King, that it posed a greater threat than terrorism.

Pemex faces mounting troubles

Depleted reserves, crumbling pipelines, outdated technology and billions of dollars in debt.

It doesn't seem much to celebrate. While Petroleos Mexicanos executives and union leaders prepare to deliver patriotic speeches and sing the national anthem at Sunday's 69th anniversary of the nationalization of Mexico's oil sector, energy experts say Pemex needs to stop looking backward.

Iran’s military warns US against “stupid move”

Iran’s army commander has warned the United States and other Western powers not to make any “stupid move” over Teheran’s nuclear work, and suggested they would be surprised by Iran’s military response if they attacked.


The comments by the commander-in-chief of the army, reported by newspapers on Saturday, were the latest in a series of defiant statements by Iran’s leadership as the United Nations prepares to vote on new sanctions against the Islamic Republic.

Why Worry When You Can Buy?

By the end of last week, financial markets were at one of those fascinating resting points.

For much of the week, Wall Street had been roiled by concerns over the subprime mortgage, particularly after the Mortgage Bankers Association reported a big jump in delinquencies and foreclosures. In the United States, stock prices plunged, led by shares of banks, investment banks, mortgage companies and home builders. Banks began to withdraw credit lines to subprime lenders, while securities tied to subprime mortgages were dumped on the markets. Market analysts began to warn of a spillover to other credit markets, not just for mortgages but for junk bonds and other high-risk securities. Economists trimmed their forecasts for economic growth, while some in Washington began to talk about the need for some sort of relief for homeowners facing foreclosure.

Housing "nightmare" tarnishes the American dream

Jillayne Schlicke's father used to tell her that mortgage banking was the "highest calling of all" because it involved helping people live the American dream of homeownership.

"I learned how to spell 'mortgage' when I was about 6 years old. It was on a flash card," said Schlicke, the daughter of two mortgage bankers and co-executive director of the Ethical Lending Foundation near Seattle.

No denying mortgage crisis likely will worsen ( So. Cal )

Most people, it is commonly said, go through five stages when dealing with doom: denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance.

As far as San Diego bankruptcy attorney Mark Miller is concerned, many homeowners are only in the “denial” stage regarding the subprime lending crisis, although they may soon slip into “anger.”

Matt Simmons Interview

Money Supply Charts

M2 - M1 plus retail money market funds, savings and small time deposits

M1: Currency, travelers checks, demand deposits and other checkable deposits

M1 - Currency - Just the currency part of M1

MZM : M2 minus all time deposits

Money supply is growing relentlessly. Only flat spot in the money supply is in M1 - it seem to be coming from checking account balances.

Source: St. Louis Fed

AN EXCERPT FROM GLOBAL WARMING: CO2, SUNSPOTS, OR POLITICS? BY PHIL N. BALDWIN, JR.

Global warming is one kind of weather topic. The current topic of man-made global warming is quite another. The idea of man-made global warming is a very politically charged issue, yet it is simply incorrect! The fact that the average global temperature has risen and fallen over time, near and far, is history. For example, most of us have forgotten the media and scientific claims and predictions of the mid to late 1970s that the world was on the brink of a new mini ice age, like the one in the mid 1600s to early 1700s.

Mexico's 69-Year-Old State Oil Firm Facing Threats to Its Stability

Depleted reserves, crumbling pipelines, outdated technology and billions of dollars in debt.

It doesn't seem much to celebrate. While Petroleos Mexicanos executives and union leaders prepare to deliver patriotic speeches and sing the national anthem Sunday on the 69th anniversary of the nationalization of Mexico's oil sector, many energy experts say Pemex needs to stop looking backward.

Economics 101: Look at the Facts; Don't Listen to Hysterics

Commodities investor Jim Rogers, who co-founded the Quantum Fund with billionaire investor George Soros in the 1970s, has looked at a small percentage of mortgage defaults and sees a real estate disaster right around the corner: “Real estate prices will go down 40-50 percent in bubble areas,” he warned on Friday. “There will be massive defaults. This time it'll be worse because we haven't had this kind of speculative buying in U.S. history.”

Can Peak Oil Save Us?

Occasionally I run into someone who has heard about Peak Oil, but doesn't think it will matter much. Usually they are convinced that the peak is at least 30 years off. Or that we have copious amounts of alternative sources of energy (tar sands, oil shale, methane hydrates, etc.) that we can tap into as soon as the market signals. They may have read somewhere that people have been warning about the depletion of oil ever since it was first discovered. Or they may dismiss Peak Oil as the rantings of a doomsday cult, much like the Y2K prophesies of societal collapse.

Peak Oil Task Force recommends Portland cut fossil fuel use

The Portland Peak Oil Task Force, a twelve member citizen committee appointed by Portland's City Council in May 2006, today delivered a strongly worded report advising that the City accelerate efforts to curb the use of oil and natural gas

The report's key recommendation is that the City take action to reduce fossil fuel use by half over the next 25 years. The report finds the best path to this goal is in accelerating current initiatives such as high-density planning and zoning, public transportation and acquiring electricity from renewable resources. Additional recommendations suggest specific actions elected officials can take to move towards the goals.

Selective reporting does not disprove peak oil

It is simply amazing how often journalists and editors can dutifully report the facts as told to them by their sources without bothering to try and understand the larger picture. Specific data, cited as “proof” for a particular theory could in fact be evidence for the complete opposite conclusion if the entire data set was examined.

A clear example of this is the recent use of Bakersfield's Kern River Field by the New York Time’s recent editorialized reporting in the “Demise of Oil” piece written by Jad Mouarad. [Also posted at EB and Mobjectivist]

Analysis: Attacking Iran -- Part 1

Uncertainties surrounding a potential attack on Iran are plentiful, especially whether the tension over its nuclear program will lead to violence. But the price of oil would likely skyrocket to record heights and the regional and global oil markets would have to hang on for the ride.

"If there's just an attack on nuclear facilities, and it's limited and Iran limits its response, even then I still think you're seeing oil probably at $80 (a barrel)," said Saad Rahim, manager of PFC Energy's country strategies group. Oil settled at around $61 Thursday.

This was world's warmest recorded winter

This has been the world's warmest winter since record-keeping began more than a century ago, the U.S. government agency that tracks weather reported on Thursday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said the combined global land and ocean surface temperature from December through February was at its highest since records began in 1880.

Peak Oil Passnotes: Return to the OPEC Corral

It was that time of year again when Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) like to get together and convince us they are in control of the oil markets. But they are not.

If we can remember back only two and a half years they lost control of the oil market completely. When they decided to sit back and wait for oil to fall back to their stated preferred basket price of $22-$28 per barrel. It never did.

Pimco Says Subprime Woes May Spread to Alt-A, Jumbo

Pacific Investment Management Co., the fund manager that first predicted a collapse in U.S. home prices almost two years ago, said today that losses on subprime mortgage will spread to other ``aggressively underwritten'' loans.

Defaults could spread to borrowers with so-called ``Alt-A'' or jumbo mortgages, according to a report distributed to clients today by the mortgage group at Newport Beach, California-based Pimco, which oversees about $668 billion. Alt-A's are loans to borrowers with good credit scores who fail to meet other criteria for top- rated financing. Jumbo mortgages are loans of more than $417,000.

U.S. Economy: Prices Limit Fed's Room to Maneuver

Rising fuel, food and medical costs pushed U.S. inflation higher last month, giving the Federal Reserve little room to maneuver as economic growth slows.

The 0.4 percent increase in the consumer price index followed a 0.2 percent January gain, the Labor Department said today in Washington. Core pri