Energy Links Jamboree - 05/31/07

Commodities: Jeff Rogers Says ''We're In A Commodity Super-Cycle''

Were in a commodity super-cycle according to Jim Rogers and others. The super-cycle describes periods of unprecedented demand for commodities triggered by the rapid development of a major new industrial power. Once it was Britains Industrial Revolution, more recently the industrial expansion of the United States and today, the industrialisation of China. Given the country is home to some 1.3bn souls, its a fair bet were witnessing the most spectacular commodity super-cycle yet...

Is Water the Next Oil?

Is water the next oil? Motives behind the question vary, depending on who asks the question.

Those who see water as a future core commodity – therefore as profitable a prospect as oil – pose the question to create the right market conditions for water trade. Those who see the potential for conflict arising from scarcity compare diminishing freshwater to oil’s depleting reserves. Those who see an environmental threat from mismanagement of water see parallels with the abuse and waste of oil.

On the likelihood of peak oil

This is the fifth time that the world is said to be running out of oil. Each time ... technology and the opening of new frontier areas has banished the specter of decline. There is no reason to think that technology is finished this time. — Daniel Yergin

Prophesy is a good line of business, but it is full of risks. — Mark Twain

Charges Iraq Invasion Was to Keep Lid on Oil Production

Iraq was invaded in order to limit its oil production and thus keep world oil prices artificially high, a noted investigative journalist reports.

"Iraq's output in 2003, 2004, and 2005 was less than produced under the restrictive oil-for-food program," writes Greg Palast in his new book Armed Madhouse (Plume). Oil-for-food allowed Iraq to sell 2 million barrels per day during the 1995 to 2003 period.

G-8 Threatens New Measures Unless Iran Halts Nuclear Enrichment

Foreign ministers from the Group of Eight industrialized nations have renewed calls for Iran to stop nuclear enrichment activities or face "appropriate measures."

The G-8 foreign ministers of Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia and the United States Wednesday admonished Iran for ignoring the United Nations deadline to stop the sensitive nuclear work.

NASA Administrator Michael Griffin Not Sure That Global Warming Is A Problem

NASA Administrator Michael Griffin tells NPR News that while he has no doubt "a trend of global warming exists, I am not sure that it is fair to say that it is a problem we must wrestle with."

In an interview with Steve Inskeep airing tomorrow on NPR News' Morning Edition, Administrator Griffin says "I guess I would ask which human beings - where and when - are to be accorded the privilege of deciding that this particular climate that we have right here today, right now is the best climate for all other human beings. I think that's a rather arrogant position for people to take."

The Peak Oil Crisis: Preparing For Depletion

News on the gasoline stockpile situation was delayed this week due to the Memorial Day holiday. As gasoline consumption figures over the long weekend won’t be available until the middle of next week, we may get a better insight into prospects for this summer then. While waiting, however, it seems like a good time to start thinking a bit about the years ahead and what we should be doing to get ready for them.

China to Begin Using Methanol in Autos After 2010

A report regarding alternative fuels in China will encourage the use of fuel methanol as an alternative to fossil fuels in the country's auto industry, an expert who was involved in the drafting of the report said yesterday.

The draft, which was finished recently, is the conclusion of half a year's research into China's possibilities for alternative energy. The research was initiated by the National Development and Reform Commission and jointly carried out by the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Health, the State Environmental Protection Administration, the Forestry Administration and 10 experts from the oil and automobile industries.

Peak Oil Test Looming

Gradually rising prices are accompanying a gradual peaking of oil production and pointing to investment opportunity in buy-recommended oil and gas producers including ConocoPhillips (COP), XTO Energy (XTO) and Occidental Petroleum (OXY).

World oil production may have already peaked at about 85 million barrels daily (mmbd) where it has been stuck for the past year (see chart Global Oil Production, below). With current demand near 86 mmbd, the difference has been made up by declining inventory.

Global warming, peak oil, and coal-to-liquids

There is no better reminder of the perils of the end of the cheap gasoline era than the article in today's New York Times, ""Lawmakers Push for Big Subsidies for Coal Process," i.e., coal-to-liquids. This is the process that converts coal to diesel fuel, and while doing so, according to the NYT, emits 119 percent more greenhouse gases than conventional diesel. (David discussed the article this morning.)

Merkel to press Bush on global warming

Chancellor Angela Merkel will meet with President George W. Bush before the Group of 8 summit meeting next week in an effort to prevent the talks from ending in failure over how to tackle global warming, officials said Tuesday.

Energy - new Russian missile?

As it plays an increasingly larger role in the relationship between Russia and its neighbours, is energy supply a way of seeing who is in control of the region?

Is the Kremlin on the verge of a nervous breakdown? The 26 April dismantling of a Soviet war memorial statue in Tallin recently provoked a diplomatic crisis between Estonia and Russia. This has resulted in the transport suspension of oil products originating in Moscow, and being brought by rail into the small Baltic republic of Estonia. Russian officials blame scheduled railway reconstruction work as the official reason for the suspension.

Energy Briefs - from Peak Oil Review

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Mexico’s trade deficit widened in April as lower oil exports reduced overall export growth and imports expanded at a steady pace. The actual deficit--$781 million—was nearly double the $381 million median estimate in a Dow Jones survey.
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Pemex announced that it produced 3.18 million b/d oil in April, unchanged from March but down from 3.37 million b/d from April 2006. Pemex exported 1.68 million b/d last month compared with 1.78 million b/d in March, and 1.83 b/d in April 2006. About 80% of Pemex's crude exports go to the U.S.
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The EIA now projects a fall in Mexico's output to 3 million barrels a day from a current production of around 3.2 million. That compares with last year's projection by the EIA for an increase to 4 million barrels a day. The EIA particularly pointed to a 14% annual rate of decline in production at Pemex's largest oil field at Cantarell.
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Kuwait unshackled its dinar from the US dollar and switched the exchange rate mechanism to a basket of currencies, throwing plans for currency union with other Gulf Arab oil producers into disarray.
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As oil companies working in the Gulf of Mexico prepare for an active hurricane season, experts say more drilling in deeper waters farther out to sea has made the U.S. more vulnerable to energy disruptions. The GOM is the source of 30% of U.S. domestic oil production and 20% of its natural gas output.
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Dozens of new ethanol plants are planned in the US thanks to federal subsidies and grants. These investments should more than double the annual production of ethanol to 734,000 b/d of gasoline equivalent. Ethanol producers recognize that it is not clear how an additional 20 billion gallons/year of ethanol (President Bush’s goal) would be produced from cellulose or biomass.
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Analysts fear any conflict between Iran and the U.S. could result in the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which tankers ship carry about 17 million barrels of crude oil a day — 20% of the world’s daily consumption.
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Sue OPEC? A bill approved by the House last Tuesday would allow our government to sue OPEC members. The bill, which also has strong support in the Senate, would amend antitrust laws to make it illegal for foreign governments to curb oil and natural gas production or control energy prices. [Ed. note: we’re dumbfounded by this bill.]
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Widespread drought in Australia is causing electricity prices to soar as hydroelectric water-storage levels plummet and coal-fired power stations cut output due to lack of water for cooling.
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The Kurdistan Regional Government will block the draft hydrocarbons law in parliament, raising the stakes in a row with the Baghdad government over control of Iraq's oil reserves.
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A subsidiary of Russian-British TNK-BP Holdings could lose its license for the massive Kovykta gas field in Siberia before June 1, a top Russian environmental official warned.
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Iran wants to develop previously untapped oil fields shared with neighboring Iraq, a move that will benefit the two countries, an Iranian oil official said on Saturday. "We hope to start working together. Both countries stand to gain. We would strengthen investment and make the best use of our shared fields."
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Iran is making substantial advances in uranium enrichment in defiance of world demands, U.N. monitors said on Wednesday, opening the way to harsher sanctions against Tehran over fears it is seeking atom bombs.
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Iran is to introduce gasoline rationing in two weeks in a move that threatens to trigger a popular backlash against its president. The country's motorists - used to some of the cheapest fuel in the world - will be restricted to three liters a day under a scheme to cut fuel consumption and reduce the burden of providing subsidized gasoline.

Energy Links Jamboree - 05/29/07

Limits To Growth?

In 1972, the Club of Rome published the infamous Limits To Growth. The book (which I read in the early eighties) used a computer model to simulate the world and predicted that we would be running out of a lot of key resources by, well, now. It said, simply enough -- that there were limits to growth.

NZ may still have 10 billion barrels of oil - GNS

Up to 10 billion barrels of oil could be recovered from future significant discoveries around New Zealand, an expert in oil exploration says.

"New Zealand is surrounded by sedimentary basins. . . and the probability of significant oil. . . 10 billion barrels," said David Darby, a "new business" manager for GNS Science.

Darfur: Forget genocide, there's oil

To paraphrase the famous quip during the 1992 US presidential debates, when an unknown William Jefferson Clinton told then-president George Herbert Walker Bush, "It's the economy, stupid," the present concern of the current Washington administration over Darfur in southern Sudan is not, if we look closely, genuine concern over genocide against the peoples in that poorest of poor part of a forsaken section of Africa.

Efficiency, Not Just Alternatives, Is Promoted as an Energy Saver

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters makes a lot of money selling individual servings of ground coffee in white cups that are churned out by the millions from a hissing, clanking production line here. But it recently found a way to generate even greater profits from the operation that will require only a modest investment.

Peak oil requires new thinking for a new age.

The consequence of Peak oil means that we need new thinking as to what will drive the world's economies in the post oil era to come.

In our series of articles addressing the issue of Peak Oil we have looked at some of the implications of the end of cheap oil. Today we switch gear and publish a lengthy set of proposals for building an electric economy which provides greater energy security and sovereignty over the generation and distribution.

The Future of Crude Oil is Sour and Heavy

What the hell is going on in with crude oil? Normally, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is oil’s benchmark. At sixty-five bucks, the WTI price isn’t alarming. It’s doing what oil’s been doing for the last year, hovering stubbornly between USD$60 and USD$70.

When Oil And Water Mix

The concoction becomes lethal. America’s relentless drive to dominate the Middle East and its oil, blends well with Israel’s insatiable appetite for water and unstoppable expansion. It is said that oil and water do not mix – but when they do, it becomes a lethal concoction with no easy solution. The fatal blend engulfing the Middle East today seems to have no end in sight other than darker clouds showering more innocent blood.

Biodiesel demand drives up soybean prices

Soybeans rose to their highest price since 2004 on Friday, extending this month's rally, as production of crop-based fuels increased demand for vegetable oils while reducing supplies available for food production.

The European Union wants biodiesel to make up 5.75 percent of transportation fuels by 2010. Government subsidies helped lift U.S. biodiesel output to 250 million gallons, or 946 million liters, last year from 75 million in 2005.

Russian natural gas exports fall 20.2% in Jan-April - ministry

Russian natural gas exports dropped 20.2% year-on-year to 60.4 billion cubic meters in the first four months of 2007, the Economic Development and Trade Ministry said in a report on the Russian economy that was distributed on Monday.

Tilling our own soil: Preparing a surge capacity for food

“What percentage of the food we eat in the Rogue Valley is grown here?” I asked a local farmer for his best estimate while handing him a $500 check last spring for a season’s worth of produce in weekly boxes big enough to feed four. When you sign up for community-supported agriculture (CSA) or graze tables covered with produce at a growers market, it’s easy to overestimate how much food is grown locally. The farmer’s reply startled me. “The figure could be as high,” he replied, pausing, “as high as one percent.” Nobody knows for sure.

GOP straw poll: Election 2008

Energy Links Jamboree - 05/24/07

The Peak Oil Crisis: The Minimum Operating Level

There has been much discussion about gasoline inventories in the US lately and rightly so. Every Wednesday morning the Department of Energy releases a snapshot of US oil and product inventories at the end of the preceding week. As US gasoline inventories fell dramatically during the past few months, it is this report, as interpreted by many buyers and sellers of gasoline, that is largely responsible for the record high prices we are paying for gasoline.

House passes gasoline gouging bill

Congress is desperate to show it feels your pain at the pump.

The House today voted, 284-141, to pass a bill that would make gasoline price gouging a federal offense.

In the Senate, Democratic leaders were scrambling to introduce a new energy bill, the first since they took control of Congress. A committee also held a hearing on whether oil industry mergers had contributed to higher fuel prices.

How to win the energy war

With prices hitting yet another all-time high, consider this: While history is littered with examples of countries that were forced to change their domestic and foreign policies because of the lack of a natural resource, there are very few notable instances of nations that had the ability to eliminate such a vulnerability but didn't.

E85 Ethanol: Money Saver or Big Hoax?

With gas prices soaring past $3 a gallon this spring...A growing number of drivers are taking a serious look at E85 Ethanol, the fuel made from corn!
Is it worth trying...If your car can handle it? You may be surprised what some drivers are finding.

Russia: Energy profile

In 2006, Russia’s real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by approximately 6.7 percent, surpassing average growth rates in all other G8 countries, marking the country’s seventh consecutive year of economic expansion. Russia’s economic growth over the past seven years has been driven primarily by energy exports, given the increase in Russian oil production and relatively high world oil prices during the period. Internally, Russia gets over half of its domestic energy needs from natural gas, up from around 49 percent in 1992. Since then, the share of energy use from coal and nuclear has stayed constant, while energy use from oil has decreased from 27 percent to around 19 percent.

Can Humans Control Global Climate?

Global climate is always changing. It has always been so, and it is bound to continue changing long after man has come and gone. As the global climate changes, so does the distribution of temperature and atmospheric gas composition around and about the Earth. And the converse is also true. For whatever reasons yet to be learned by scientific study, changes in the Earth’s temperature and atmospheric composition will lead to global climate changes regardless of what the Sun is doing.

Iraq's oil production on the decline

The American Inspector of Reconstruction in Iraq said that Basra's oil port, one of the most significant transportation facilities in the country, will soon be capable of working at its optimum oil production rate of 3 million barrels per day (bpd) if the docks secondary oil pipelines are repaired, , Iraq Directory reported.

Peak Oil Passnotes: The American Driver Pays Up

When U.S. gasoline hit record heights, it is now at a national average of $3.10 per gallon President Bush decided it was time to say something. But instead of coming out with anything concrete President Bush waddled around the subject of energy with all the clarity of a man high on PCP.

Saudi Arabia: Energy profile

Between mid-2003 and mid-2006, Saudi Arabia showed strong economic performance due to high oil prices, increasing oil production and export earnings, paired with structural reforms, economic diversification, and stable macroeconomic policymaking.

Saudi Arabia remains heavily dependent on oil and petroleum-related industries, including petrochemicals and petroleum refining. The IMF reported that in 2005, oil export revenues accounted for around 90 percent of total Saudi export earnings, 70-80 percent of state revenues, and 44 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP). In order to defend their most significant source of economic growth, national oil company Saudi Aramco is increasing its oil production capacity to 12.5 million barrels per day (bbl/d), by 2009.

Mexico oil output flat at 3.182 bpd in April

Mexican crude oil output was unchanged in April at 3.182 million barrels per day compared to March and exports fell, state-run oil monopoly Pemex said on Monday.

Crude production held at its highest level since last September but was still well below the 2006 average of 3.256 million bpd as Pemex struggles to keep up output from its giant but aging Cantarell oil field.

Debt, Deficits, Derivatives & Delusions - 05/21/07

Yen on record low against euro

The yen hit a record low against the euro on Monday, with sellers of the low-yielding currency encouraged by regional stock markets' calm reaction to China's surprise move to widen the yuan's trading band and raise interest rates.

Group of Eight finance ministers avoided discussing the yen's weakness at a weekend meeting, which market players also took as a green light to push up high-yielding currencies.

S.Korea's trade deficit with Japan rises to 10 bln USD in first four months this year

South Korea's trade deficit with Japan rises to 10.06 billion U.S. dollars in the first four months of this year, compared with 8.35 billion U.S. dollars during the same period of 2006, said a report of the Korea International Trade Association (KITA) on Monday.

The housing bubble's silver lining

THE ONCE-buoyant housing market is clearly in trouble. Last year, housing prices around the country fell for the first year since the Depression. In Southern California, one of the epicenters of the housing and housing-credit bubble, the pain has been acute. Local subprime lenders such as Ownit Mortgage Solutions in Agoura Hills and New Century Financial in Irvine have filed for bankruptcy protection. MortgageDaily.com estimated that 12,000 mortgage jobs have been cut in California since January 2006. Foreclosure rates are rising.

Saudi Arabia's gold demand up 7 per cent

Gold demand in Saudi Arabia was up by 7 per cent in the first quarter (Q1) of 2007 as against the same period last year and further increase is expected due to customs tariff reduction, according to the report issued by the regional office of the World Gold Council (WGC) on gold demand in the Middle East, the Gulf region and worldwide.

The Trade Deficit and Foreign Confidence in the U.S. Economy

If foreigners lose confidence in the U.S. economy and are less willing to hold dollar denominated assets, the supply of dollars in the global banking system will exceed demand and the exchange value of the dollar will fall...

Energy Links Jamboree - 05/21/07

International oil companies could receive sole control of Iraq's oil

A representative for Hands Off Iraqi Oil (HOIO) said that an Iraqi oil law could mean that international companies may receive full control of Iraqi oil fields for more than two decades, Iraq Directory reported.

It was also mentioned that Shell Company has been working hand in hand with the United States and Britain to arrange an international policy to permit multinational companies to receive solitary control of Iraq's oil fields.

Green ETFs: Good Cause Doesn't Always Produce Better Performance

As the price of energy continues to rise there is going to be more demand for alternative options and that includes ETF investing. For the past few weeks, the hottest topic has been "green" investing (we've provide a list of some of the articles below).

There are a handful of “green” ETF options currently available for investors and more are likely to follow. There is still relatively little money in the ETFs, the two largest have about $22 million in assets each.

Oil above $70 on Nigeria attack

Oil climbed above $70 a barrel on Monday, extending an earlier gain, after a fresh attack on the oil industry in Nigeria, the world's eighth largest exporter.
Gunmen attacked an oil facility in Nigeria operated by France's Total on Monday, sources at private security companies said.

China and USA in New Cold War over Africa’s Oil Riches

To paraphrase the famous quip during the 1992 US Presidential debates, when an unknown William Jefferson Clinton told then-President George Herbert Walker Bush, “It’s the economy, stupid,” the present concern of the current Washington Administration over Darfur in southern Sudan is not, if we were to look closely, genuine concern over genocide against the peoples in that poorest of poor part of a forsaken section of Africa.

Peak coal: sooner than you think

Coal provides over a quarter of the world’s primary energy needs and generates 40 per cent of the world’s electricity. Two thirds of global steel production depends on coal.

Global consumption of coal is growing faster than that of oil or natural gas - a reverse of the situation in earlier decades. From 2000 to 2005, coal extraction expanded at an average of 4.8 per cent per year compared to 1.6 per cent per year for oil: although world natural gas consumption had been racing ahead in past years, in 2005 it actually fell slightly.

OPEC Has No Plans to Pump More Oil, Libya, Qatar Say

OPEC, which supplies about two-fifths of the world's oil, won't heed calls from consumers to increase output for the summer driving season, officials from Libya and Qatar said.

``We are convinced that the market is not short of supply,'' Qatari Energy Minister Abdullah Al-Attiyah told reporters in the Persian Gulf nation's capital Doha today. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Africa, not lack of production, are pushing oil prices higher, he said.

Peak problems

Most of the world has not tuned into "peak oil" as a real and inevitable event. But peak oil the moment when we can no longer, on a global basis, increase oil production may be here already or only a year or two away.

Is peak oil a big deal? Ali Samsam Bakhtiari, a respected oil analyst and past director of the National Iranian Oil Company, refers to it as "the most important event of the 21st century." His greatest worry is the continuing contraction in oil production after the peak, with annual production reduced by approximately 30 percent or more within 12 to 15 years after the peak.

Expert: "Peak oil" will force changes

Optimist that he is, Greg Pahl actually sees an upside to the latest jump in fuel prices: the growing realization among Americans that the gas crisis isn't going away.

"And those who do think this is a temporary anomaly are dreaming," the author and renewable energy expert said in a phone interview from his home in Weybridge, Vt. "They don't understand what we're getting into here. This is just the beginning."

Peak Oil Week Day 2 – Eating up the oil reserves.

Yesterday’s publication of the first in our Peak Oil series reports has sparked some debate and generated feedback which sadly indicates just how ill-informed the majority of the population seems to be on this issue.

California Gov. Schwarzenegger Blocks Offshore Natural Gas Terminal

California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger on Friday rejected the proposed liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal 20-miles off the coast of Malibu, expressing concerns that the $800 million project could harm the environment.

"Any LNG import facility must meet the strict environmental standards California demands to continue to improve our air quality, protect our coast and preserve our marine environment," the Republican governor said in a statement.

Peak Oil Day 4 - Building an electricity based economy.

So far this week in our series of articles addressing the issue of Peak Oil we have looked at some of the implications of the end of cheap oil. Today we switch gear and publish a lengthy set of proposals for building an electric economy which provides greater energy security and sovereignty over the generation and distribution.

Peak Oil and the Inflation Lie

In the past few days, news headlines have trumpeted and repeated what is a non sequitur, and a physical and logical impossibility:

Overall Inflation Eases, Gas Prices Up (Associated Press)

Despite Gas Prices, Inflation Eases (Boston Globe)

These nonsensensical statements have already become the basis for economic, political and financial decision-making across the country, as well as internationally.

Peak Oil Series Day 3 – A looming economic depression?

Today in our series of articles concerning Peak Oil we examine the financial and economic implications resulting from the end of cheap oil.

It is an indisputable fact that the world’s oil fields are being depleted at a faster rate than new fields are being discovered. Globally 31.5 billion barrels of oil were consumed in 2006 whereas world discoveries amounted to just 4 billion.

HOW FAR DOWN THE RABBIT HOLE?

America added 106 million people from 1965 to 2007. Demographic experts showed 300 million more people living in America in October of last year. They expect an added 100 million by 2040. The consequences will be irreversible and unsolvable.

As population rises, carrying capacity drops. What is “carrying capacity?” For a quick rendition, it means, “the amount resources on a given piece of land to allow long term sustainable human, plant and animal life.”

What motivated the 9/11 hijackers? See testimony most didn't

Interesting Clip

Energy Links Jamboree - 05/17/07

Fenton Gets Rogers' Latest View on China, the Mid East, the US Economic Meltdown

Investor Jim Rogers reveals bold opinions to strategist Bruce Fenton in an interview posted today on The Fenton Report (http://www.fentonreport.com/) and YouTube.

"There is a staggering misconception about China about Japan, about Europe, about everywhere. Most Americans can't even find Japan on a map...They can't even find Oklahoma on a map," says Rogers. "If the middle of Africa blew up we wouldn't know about it for two or three weeks...the rest of the world might, but we wouldn't," says Rogers

The Peak Oil crisis will not just impact on transport but also on agriculture in a massive way!

The Peak Oil crisis will not only mean a shortage of fuel for transport and heating - it will also mean a major loss in the production of high energy fertilisers - impacting massively on crop yields!

Yesterday's publication of the first in our Peak Oil series reports has sparked some debate and generated feedback which sadly indicates just how ill-informed the majority of the population seems to be on this issue.

Who Is Stealing Iraq's Oil?

It took quite a while, but it appears that the Bush Administration has finally gotten around to acknowledging that Iraq has an oil problem. The Government Accountability Office is about to release a report that estimates 100,000 to 300,000 barrels of oil goes missing every month. According to the New York Times, the GAO will not offer a conclusion about what specifically is happening to the missing oil, other than it is probably lost to corruption, smuggling or just bad accounting.

The Peak Oil Crisis: Alarms Are Sounding

Across the world alarm bells are starting to clang. Above every gas station, a large sign is proclaiming that prices are on an unstoppable climb towards un-affordability. In Paris, the International Energy Agency has announced that the demand for oil is likely to exceed the supply later this year, unless, of course, OPEC steps up production. In the Middle East OPEC spokesmen reiterate time after time that all is well, there is plenty of oil, and there is no need to increase production.

Natural gas prices expected to keep summer energy bills high

CPS Energy is expecting electric bills to be slightly higher than last year due to higher natural gas prices in electric generation.

According to Sylvia Arnold, director of customer services for CPS Energy, the projected average residential bill for the months of June through September is $155.28 per month based on 1,660 kilowatt hours. That's about $4.74 above last year's summer bill of $150.54 per month based on 1,653 kilowatt hours.

Bolton: Attack Iran before it gets bomb

Iran should be attacked - as a last resort - before it develops nuclear weapons, former US ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton was quoted as saying on Wednesday.

Feeling Shaky? Worried? Depressed? You Might Just Need An Eco-Therapist

Let's face it. Before Global Warming, Peak Oil, and the demise of bees came along, we all had plenty of other things to worry about. Now that we're in the thick of leading "greener" lives, some of the information out there can sometimes make the task a little overwhelming. Thankfully, there are those out there willing to lend a hand.

Searing Summer of Gasoline Shortages

Here is a quick run down on the possible disaster we face this summer as we head into Memorial Day with the lowest beginning-of-driving-season stocks in US history. It would have been convenient had someone found out exactly what Minimum Operating Levels* really have become. I suspect we will answer this riddle this summer.

What Glows in the Dark

No matter how bad things seem, balance can be kept by holding fast to a bedrock faith in the viability of the human condition. The fact that people can and often do ADAPT is what has so often proven the doomsayers wrong.

In regard to America's energy crisis, such an outcome is certainly possible, if not probable. Opportunity abounds when rational people start focusing on solutions.

Rigged to Blow - Kunstler

It's hard to venture around this land and not feel like you are living in something like an obsolete Las Vegas hotel exquisitely rigged for implosion. The massive system that we've poured all our national wealth into, and elaborated to the last limits of refinement over half a century, is poised for failure. The prospect is so dreadful that no legitimate authority in politics, business, the news media, or even those cultural outlands of the arts and religion, can bring themselves to express a plausibly coherent view of what happens next to a living arrangement with no future and an economy of no purpose.

US Sponsored Bombing of Somalia: The Hidden War for Oil

Carl Bloice elucidates the failure or unwillingness of the Western media to accurately report the invasion and occupation of Somalia by a US backed Ethiopian government. He asserts that behind the US-Ethiopian political alliance lies a strategic move to secure positioning in this oil region.

The US bombing of Somalia took place while the World Social Forum was underway in Kenya, three days before a large anti-war action in Washington on 27 January 2007.

GOP Debate.

Post Debate - Fox News Style



Dr. Paul interviewed on CNN

Debt, Deficits, Derivatives & Delusions - 05/15/07

Trade deficit jumps with hike in oil imports

The trade deficit rose to the highest level in six months as a big jump in oil imports offset a narrowing of the politically sensitive deficit with China.

The gap between what the United States imports and what it sells to the rest of the world rose to $63.9 billion in March, up 10.4 percent from the February level, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.

A Sea of Debt

Warren Buffett has famously quipped “it’s only when the tide goes out that you learn who’s been swimming naked.” Well, the great sea of liquidity currently swamping the global financial system will eventually ebb, and many, many people will be caught without a bathing suit.

Every new generation believes that it is special, and not subject to the lessons of history, or the laws of economics. Until things go terribly wrong of course. Then historical parallels are crystal clear, in hindsight.

U.S. finds benefits in weakness of dollar

U.S. companies have been doing business abroad for a long time, but overseas markets have never been more important.

This year, for the first time, Standard & Poor's expects the 500 big companies in its benchmark stock index to generate more than half of their sales in foreign countries.

Housing costs taking their toll of society

One of the unplanned but most intractable legacies of the Blair decade is the distortion of any normal or sustainable relation between house prices and people’s incomes. If that link is not already broken it is certainly stretched to the limit.

The rate of price inflation may be slowing, just, but remains obstinately high.

Corporate restructuring: living in the bubble

The last 12 months has seen around 23% of UK listed corporates issuing profit warnings, the highest annual count since the impact of 9/11, SARS and the foot and mouth outbreak.

Underlying inflation is above the government’s target of 2%, broader price inflation measures are forecast to remain above 3% and interest rates have increased three times since August 2006 and are widely expected to continue to rise further in 2007. The prognosis further afield is not that great either as continental Europe is forecast to show only modest (sub 2%) GDP growth in the major economies.

Auction draws more than 1,200 bidders on Southern California houses, condos

The bidding on foreclosed homes was so fast and furious that Candace and Curtis Friedman were still feeling an adrenaline rush as they were escorted out of the auction to sign a purchase agreement.

“You don't have a lot of time to think,” said Curtis, a stay-at-home dad from El Cajon. “It's the fastest $200,000 we ever spent. It's over before you know what happened.”

How to vote for Ron Paul after the debate tonight

Bust out your cell phones and send a text message to Fox News to vote for Ron Paul in the debate tonight! Send to 36988 with code R7 between 7:30 and 12:30 am! 1. On your cell phone, select the text-messaging (SMS) option. 2. Create a new text message. 3. Address the message to 36988. 4. In the body of the message, simply type the code: R7

Energy Briefs - Courtesy of Peak Oil Review

Kurdish and Sunni officials have expressed deep reservations about the draft version of a national oil law for Iraq. These misgivings could derail one of the benchmarks of progress in Iraq laid down by President Bush.

Total has declared force majeure on contracts related to oil supplies from the Republic of Congo following a fire that forced the French company to halt 60,000 b/day of production from the country's largest oil field.

Venezuela has levied the largest tax bill in the nation's history on an oil project led by ConocoPhillips, the lone holdout in President Hugo Chavez's oil nationalization crusade. The move comes only days after the nation's energy minister said Venezuela is in "conflict" with Conoco over its refusal to sign an accord recognizing the OPEC nation's takeover of four multibillion dollar Orinoco heavy crude projects on May 1.

A recent study by PFC Energy shows political factors are limiting capacity increases in Mexico, Venezuela, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and Russia. PFC Chairman Robin West said: "Should demand outstrip supply, you will have a run-up in prices, massive demand destruction and substitutions. It will create tremendous pressures in the international petroleum system, the international economic system, the international political system."

The state-run Nepal Oil Corporation said it had run out of fuel stockpiles after the Indian Oil Corporation reduced supplies by nearly 40 percent due to the non-payment of bills. Hundreds of .cars and motorcycles are lined up at petrol stations in the Nepali capital.

U.S. drillers have less to lose this year in the Gulf of Mexico after market forces prompted them to move their most storm-vulnerable rigs elsewhere before hurricane season. There are about 20 percent fewer rigs in the Gulf now than a year ago and there is an above-average chance that a major hurricane will hit the U.S. GOM this year.

Both houses of the Alaska Legislature have approved a bill establishing a multibillion dollar natural gas project designed to tap natural gas and transport it to the rest of the country. The bill is designed to stimulate competition, but also has requirements that BP, ExxonMobil, and ConocoPhillips oppose. The oil companies warned they would not submit bids unless the stringent requirements were removed.

A new study suggests that the choke point for Alberta's oil sands expansion may not be the huge carbon dioxide emissions arising from mining and processing the sands, but a lack of water.

The leaders of Russia, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan reached a deal to build a pipeline along the Caspian Sea coast to ship Turkmen natural gas to Western markets via Kazakhstan and Russia, The agreement is a blow to the U.S. and European countries' efforts to secure reliable sources of oil and gas outside the Middle East that also would be independent from Russian influence.

According to a Platt’s survey, the OPEC 10 produced an average of 26.57 million barrels of crude per day in April. This is up 30,000 b/d from March's 26.54 million b/d and 770,000 b/d above their 25.8 million b/d production target established last month.

A new GAO study will report that billions of dollars' worth of Iraq's declared oil production over the past four years is unaccounted for. The report does not conclude what happened to the missing oil, and provides alternative explanations including corruption, smuggling, or possible Iraqi overstating of its production.

Iran is set to begin gasoline rationing on May 22; however, no decision has been made on how many liters each car will be allowed per day or month. The IEA says the plan should help curb imports and raise fuel efficiency but may provoke considerable domestic opposition.

The Earth Policy Institute says that a worldwide shift from incandescent bulbs to compact fluorescents could close 270 coal-fired power plants.

Ontario is considering building eight new nuclear reactors if older ones cannot be properly refurbished. The new nuclear power generating plants are part of the Ontario government's plan to wean the province off coal-fired electricity and move towards what it sees as clean nuclear energy.

Kuwait’s Oil Minister said the country will never disclose the size of its oil reserves for reasons of national security. There are reliable reports that Kuwait’s reserves are only half the official number of 99 billion barrels.

The U.S. House of Representatives will not vote on energy legislation before July 4, and a bill now under development is unlikely to include revisions to Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards, which a Senate committee approved earlier.

Bohai Bay in northern China may hold oil reserves equivalent to 146 billion barrels, the official China Daily reported Thursday, citing an upstream expert with the Chinese Academy of Engineering.

Statoil, Norway's largest oil company, cut its 2007 production target by as much as 12 percent after the closure of a North Sea field and delays at projects from Azerbaijan to Algeria.

Japanese automakers say it is not possible to meet the EU’s 120 gco2/km target for automobile emissions by 2012

Zimbabwe is to cut electricity to some residential areas for up to 20 hours a day in the coming months to meet higher demand for irrigation power from farmers amid persistent food shortages.

Eni , Italy's biggest oil company, said first-quarter profit fell 13 percent after attacks in Nigeria and expropriations in Venezuela cut crude output. The company raised its production target through 2010 after acquisitions.

Shell no longer believes it is realistic to be targeting a possible Colorado commercial oil shale decision by the end of this decade. At best, they do not foresee a commercial decision prior to early in the next decade.

U.K. motorists appear undeterred by record-high U.K. gasoline prices. New government data shows a 1.2% increase in road traffic during the first quarter. The price of gasoline grew 7% to average GBP4.26 a gallon last year against GBP3.96 a gallon in 2005.

Energy Links Jamboree -05/14/07

Will Warming Chill the Global Economy?

The planet's environment is going through an epochal upheaval in weather patterns. A key question from Standard & Poor's Ratings Services' point of view is, What might that mean for economic growth?

EIA Chief: OPEC Should Increase Oil Output Before Sep

Energy Information Administration chief Guy Caruso said Monday that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries should increase production before its next meeting in September, especially following ongoing problems in Nigeria that have cut production in the country by almost one-third.

Caruso also predicted that national weekly average gasoline prices should hit record highs in a tight product market exacerbated by the Nigerian cuts.

With the consumption of oil exceeding new finds the Peak Oil crisis is almost upon us.

The growth in oil demand now exceeds the rate of new discovery - meaning a looming crisis for the industrial world!

Last September the BNP organised a small conference with some key industrial players in the New Forest to discuss the political impact of the Peak Oil crisis. As a political topic it has rarely made the mainstream, rarely mentioned by the Old Gang Lib/Lab/Con party but the article in Saturday's Daily Mail has not only played 'catch-up- to the BNP but has forced the issue into the consciousness of over a million of its readers.

US to halt oil purchases for strategic reserve until peak season ends

The US does not plan to buy more oil for its strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) until after the end of the peak demand summer driving season, US Secretary of Energy Samuel Bodman said.

Speaking at the biennial ministerial meeting of the International Energy Agency in Paris, Secretary Bodman said the US currently holds around 600-700 mln usd in cash which is available to buy oil for the SPR.

Ethanol will take 27% of this year’s U.S. maize crop

The fuel ethanol industry will absorb 27% of this year's US corn crop, projected to be a record 12.46bn bushels, challenging US farmers' ability to satisfy food, feed and fuel demand, the US Dept. of Agriculture said on Friday. The Agriculture Department said US maize stockpiles will run low going into the next crop year when ethanol demand will rise again.

Got Milk? Not Enough, as Dairy Demand Outpaces Output

Milk prices worldwide are rising at the fastest rate ever and won't be falling anytime soon because of growing demand in China and Latin America and dwindling government supplies.

Can Europe end the lose-lose game with Iran?

As the world powers gathered in Berlin last week to discuss new punitive measures against Iran's nuclear program, Europe is faced with a daunting task.

On the one hand, it must remain tough and steadfast against Iran's defiance of two UN Security Council Resolutions. On the other hand, it must redefine suspension of enrichment in order to kick-start much needed negotiations and end the current lose-lose game being played between the West and Iran.

Peak Oil Passnotes: Blair’s Legacy, Missing Oil

Many commentators in the U.K. have been able to wax long and lyrical about the resignation of Prime Minister Tony Blair. Indeed many others from many other countries have done the same. Finally he is ready to stand down on June 27 after many, many months of his departure being an open secret.

Energy Links Jamboree -05/10/07

Natural Gas Powered Cars Linger in Obscurity

The AIADA newslettter reported that owners of natural gas powered vehicles pay as little as $1.25 a gallon to run their cars. They can even fill up in their own garages every night just like they would power-up with one of the gas-electric plug-in hybrids still under development.

You can't say I didn't warn you

This is a wake up call to all those who think that the solution to Peak Oil is Bio-Fuel.

I tried to tell you what it start doing to food crops, and prices, but you wouldn't hear of it.

You wouldn't listen to me. maybe you'll listen to THIS. Biofuels drive food prices higher

Oil Industry Keen on Biofuels

The oil barons (or energy companies, as they preferred to be called) are increasingly tying up with biofuel and chemical companies to diversify their sources. From BP to Chevron to Shell, investments in ethanol and biodiesel are opening the doors to their refineries to alternative fuels.

High Gas Prices Provide Opportunity for Reflection

Feeling the price at the gas pump yet? The reason that gas prices are so high may not be immediately obvious, though most of us are familiar with the concept of Peak Oil. Whether or not we've reached the inevitable tipping point of the free-energy parade we've been having for so long, we haven't actually run out of oil -- yet.

Cornucopian catechism: Notes from Pittsburgh

In early March I visited the West Coast to discuss forming a nationwide coalition on how health care will be challenged and changed by global warming and peak oil. Unsurprisingly, the city governments of San Francisco, Seattle, and Portland, as well as several smaller cities and counties in those states, are addressing these issues.

Post Peak Oil: Effects on the Stock Market and World Economy

Whenever somebody complains about “the lies that George Bush & Co. told to get us into the Iraq war” (as Frank Rich did in The New York Times recently), I wonder how those lies compare to the lies that the American public tells itself every day - for example, that America could get along without oil from the Middle East, or that hybrid cars will save Happy Motoring, or that the United States can have an economy without producing anything of value.

Saudis cautious on investment

Saudi Arabia's reluctance to commit to boosting oil production capacity beyond 2009 is a response to the potentially huge impact on future demand of energy efficiency, alternative fuels and high prices.

Demand uncertainty is providing little incentive for oil producers to risk investing billions of dollars on long-term projects to boost capacity, as they worry it will lie idle.

Chevron Seen Settling Case on Iraq Oil

Chevron, the second-largest American oil company, is preparing to acknowledge that it should have known kickbacks were being paid to Saddam Hussein on oil it bought from Iraq as part of a defunct United Nations program, according to investigators.

The Peak Oil Crisis: The Summer Ahead

Last week they began kidnapping foreign workers at an alarming pace —22 foreigners kidnapped in 36 hours— and overran offshore platforms and production ships. On Monday, the strongest militant group issued a chilling ultimatum. “All foreign and local nationals working with multinational oil companies and their contractor should vacate Ijaw territory (the oil producing region) immediately.” “All foreign embassies should withdraw their nationals from our homelands.” “Nothing can protect them --- No more hostages taking -- Any national caught shall be summarily dealt with.” By the way, these guys have a good track record for doing what they say they are going to do. The next morning, three major oil pipelines were bombed, shutting down another 150,000 barrels per day of oil production. Total production shutdown by the insurgency is now on the order of 900,000 barrels per day. The insurgents have demonstrated that they have the capability of shutting down most, if not all, of Nigeria’s oil production.

Fears rise about an ethanol bust

President George W. Bush's January, 2006 declaration that the U.S. is "addicted to oil" marked the beginning of a gold rush for corn growers: The government policies the comment helped spur have been a boon for the producers of corn-based ethanol, the all-American fuel that now displaces about 4% of U.S. gasoline supply. Over the past 18 months, farmers have rushed to plant more corn—and are set to produce a record crop this year—while small-time entrepreneurs and agricultural giants alike have built plants to expand capacity. A handful of initial public offerings have fed investors' desire to get in on the action.

Current water sources cannot sustain growing population

Water used to be thought of as an abundance but now residents can be fined for using it, with a maximum fine in McKinney at $2,000.

The rapid increase of businesses and residents in Collin County has taken a strain on area’s water reservoirs causing Collin County cities to impose restrictions on its residents and businesses. Collin County draws it raw water supply from three main supplies: Lake Lavon, Lake Jim Chapman and Lake Texoma.

Venezuelan oil output stagnant at 2.4 million bpd

Venezuelan oil production in April remained unchanged at some 2.4 million bpd, the same level as in March, according to the Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the US Department of Energy.

According to EIA, last month excess production capacity was 50,000 bpd, which added to the overall excess output capacity of all the member countries of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), totaling 2.43-2.93 million bpd.

The Left's Global Warming Solution: No More Children!

Proving once again that foolish ideas don't die or fade away -- they walk the earth eternally, preying on the brains of the living -- scientists at a UK think tank have determined that the greatest threat to the planet is more human beings. "The effect on the planet of having one child less is an order of magnitude greater than all these other things we might do, such as switching off lights," explains Professor John Guillebaud, co-chairman of the Optimum Population Trust (OPT). "The greatest thing anyone in Britain could do to help the future of the planet would be to have one less child."

Right Now - Kunstler

I got a letter last week from a reader complaining bitterly that the stock market hasn't crashed and blaming me for predicting that it would. He didn't say, but I hope he hadn't been out there on a shorting spree. In case any of you haven't noticed, 2007 is not over yet.

Debt, Deficits, Derivatives & Delusions - 05/10/07

Zimbabwe: Country Reaches Official Hyperinflation Level

Official silence on Zimbabwe's latest inflation figures is being ascribed by Harare-based investment professionals to the authorities' embarrassment that the internationally accepted hyperinflation level has now been reached.

What is the real solution to America's trade deficit?
The US Congress seems more determined than ever to tighten the noose on China. The issue is trade policy – and the legislative response to America’s outsize bilateral trade deficit with China. The way things look today, bipartisan support for such efforts is deep enough to assure veto-proof passage of tough trade sanctions on a broad array of Chinese products shipped to the US. I continue to believe this could be a policy blunder of monumental proportions. By going after China, the US Congress is playing with fire.

Bank of America's Lewis Calls for Lending `Sanity'

Bank of America Corp. Chief Executive Officer Ken Lewis said a so-called credit bubble is about to break after six years of historically low interest rates and relaxed lending criteria.

``We are close to a time when we'll look back and say we did some stupid things,'' Lewis said, speaking at a lunch at the Swiss-American Chamber of Commerce in Zurich. ``We need a little more sanity in a period in which everyone feels invincible and thinks this is different.''

MONEY! MOOLA! CREDIT! CASH!

"Sarkozy must have won the elections," Elizabeth deduced.

Americans, meanwhile, are nowhere near elections, yet there too the politicians are hogging time on the big screen. People can't seem to take their eyes off of it - except to tune in to the Dow, of course, which hit yet another high on Friday.

Buffett On Derivatives: 'A Fool's Game'

Warren Buffett, the billionaire investor and long-time chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A), is a man who speaks his mind. I'm not sure whether he's always been that way, or whether it is his exceptional wealth or his age -- or both -- that emboldens him to cut through Wall Street B.S. like a hot knife and expose the bloody truth about the foibles of modern finance.

Moneybox's Gross Goes Counterintuitive, Claims Bubbles Are Good

Every asset bubble leaves a new collection of bubble literature in its wake.

Some of the books go on to become classics: John Kenneth Galbraith's ``The Great Crash,'' for example. Others (``Dow 36,000'') are remembered for their curiosity value. Still others are just plain curious, as in, what was the author thinking?

The IRS, Amero And The Battleground For Liberty

"Taxation follows public debt, and in its train wretchedness and oppression." Thomas Jefferson to Samuel Kerchival, Monticello, 1816

I have been deluged with requests to cover IRS indictments or injunctions filed against individuals, i.e., last month the U.S. Department of Justice moved against Bob Schulz and his We the People Foundation; see court filing here. [Go to www.newswithviews.com to read from the original article, All the links from this article.] Many wonder why I didn't do my annual April 15th slave day column. So many wonder what has happened to the "tax movement." The IRS is systematically picking off individuals who fully understand the fraud being perpetrated against the American people and shipping them off to jail. Wonderful, decent Americans like Dr. Tom Clayton, is now serving a prison sentence because we have a federal judicial system that is so rotten, it shames the stench of rancid meat. Those who haven't done a lick of real research will shrug off that comment because ignorance is bliss and it's easier just to get down on your knees and welcome the chains of bondage and slavery than to stand up and fight for what's right. Reminds me of the theme song from an old western, "Rolling' rollin' rollin' Keep them cattle going. Raw-hide."

Living with derivatives: Riskier financial systems

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its latest Annual Policy Statement has finally given the green signal for the introduction of credit derivative swaps, a kind of credit derivative instrument.

Ironically, the move comes just as there is renewed debate worldwide among regulators about the implications of the rapid growth of derivatives for the safety of the financial system. So how should the central bank proceed? Are there any takeaways, any research findings RBI could keep in mind as we enter what has so far been virtually uncharted territory?

Asia's real worry could be falling dollar

Although Asian finance ministers have just agreed on a new contingency measure to defend their currencies, their real concerns appear to be a plunge in the US dollar rather than a rise in their own units.

Energy News Briefs - ( From Peak Oil Review )

• In Iraq, Kurdish and Sunni Arab officials have serious reservations about the draft of a national oil law and related legislation. Their misgivings could derail one of the benchmark measures of progress in Iraq laid down by President Bush.
• Kuwait has made "a new and important" discovery of oil and gas in the country's northern area, but will never disclose the size of its oil reserves for reasons of national security. Oil Minister Sheikh Ali Al-Jarrah Al-Sabah said after announcing the new find, "Kuwait has not and will not disclose the size of its oil reserves."
• US oil and gas drilling reached a 21-year peak during the first-quarter; nearly twice the level of first-quarter drilling activity during the 1990s. An estimated 11,771 oil wells, natural gas wells, and dry holes were completed during the period, 1% more than the total for 2006's first quarter.
• OPEC won't meet before September because the crude market is currently ``well supplied,'' its president said.
• The chief economist for the International Energy Agency said high prices are having a diminishing impact on energy consumption. The increasing wealth of the U.S. and other developed nations helps these countries withstand higher energy costs. Energy subsidies in many developing countries cushion the effect of higher energy prices and the lack of a substitute for transportation fuel keeps demand high price hikes.
• A new study by the Pentagon warns that the rising cost and dwindling supply of oil -- the lifeblood of fighter jets, warships, and tanks -- will make the US military's ability to respond to hot spots around the world "unsustainable in the long term."
• Lithium-ion battery manufacturer A123 Systems intends to begin marketing battery packs in 2008 for third-party conversion of hybrids to plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). The packs will initially cost about $10,000 and are designed to go into the spare tire well.
• According to Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi, Saudi Arabia may not need to increase its oil-production capacity after 2009 because conservation and alternative energy sources could curb global oil consumption. Saudi Arabia had previously announced plans to increase capacity to 12.5 b/d by 2009 from the current estimated 10.3 million b/d and then to 15 million b/d by a unspecified date.
• Saudi Arabia may double oil exports to China within three years as demand is boosted by that country’s new refining capacity.
• The US Senate may vote this month on legislation to boost the fuel economy of cars and trucks and increase the use of alternative fuels. Under the proposal, the Energy
Department would have to come up with a plan to reduce gasoline consumption by 20 percent by 2017, 35 percent by 2025 and 45 percent by 2030.
• A new report says renewable energy could supply up to half the nation's current electricity demand and 40 percent of its transportation fuel demand by 2025. Wind energy could play the biggest role, supplying nearly 40 percent of the renewable power, followed by solar, geothermal, biomass, and water power.
• Russia increased production of oil and gas condensate 3.6% year-on-year in the first four months of 2007 to 161.372 million tons, the Fuel and Energy Sector Central Dispatch Service said.
• Electricity prices may reach record highs in Europe as forecasters predict a second straight summer of soaring temperatures. Italy has declared a state of emergency because of reduced water flows in the Po River.
• The IEA warned of a looming global natural gas shortage unless more money is poured into investment. The agency called on the governments of its 26 member countries to streamline regulation, improve market functioning and increase domestic production. It also advocated a more efficient use of gas and a diversification of supply sources and LNG tanker routes.
• Oil Minister al-Naimi said Saudi Arabia aims to increase its crude-oil reserves by 76 percent and gas reserves by 40 percent. ``Our petroleum reserves amount to about 264 billion barrels, or one quarter of the world's proven reserves, and all indications highlight the possibility of increasing these reserves by almost 200 billion barrels,'' he said.
• Mexican state oil monopoly PEMEX posted a first-quarter net loss of $915 million on Wednesday, hurt by decreased export volumes, a lower export price for Mexican crude, and higher costs.
• The June natural gas contract briefly touched $8/MMbtu in a surprise late-day rally by hedge funds that forced traders to cover short positions May 3 on the New York market.
• Iraqi economists are warning of the inflationary consequences of the continued rise in fuel prices being made by the al-Maliki government. Two years ago a liter of gasoline sold for 20 dinars. It is now 400 dinars per liter and the government is proposing to increase that to 750 dinars per liter by the end of the year.
• Energy companies, including ExxonMobil, BP and ConocoPhillips, told Alaskan lawmakers that they would not participate in building a natural gas pipeline from Alaska's North Slope because the state’s proposed legislation makes too many demands without enough return.

Energy Links Jamboree - 05/08/

World Oil Outlook: Markets Tighten, Continued Growth In Demand

Demand. World oil markets are projected to tighten this summer due to continued growth in oil demand and production restraint by members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Despite the recent increases in world oil prices, global oil consumption is projected to grow by 1.4 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2007 and by 1.6 million bbl/d in 2008. About one-half of the projected growth will come from China and the United States (World Oil Consumption Growth). Preliminary first-quarter 2007 data indicate that U.S. consumption rose by over 500,000 bbl/d and Chinese consumption rose by about 400,000 bbl/d relative to first-quarter 2006 levels. Colder weather relative to last year was a major contributor to higher U.S. demand.

Chevron to make record settlement in Iraq oil scandal

Chevron, the second-largest American oil company, is preparing to acknowledge that it should have known kickbacks were being paid to Saddam Hussein on oil it bought from Iraq as part of a defunct United Nations program, New York Times reported Tuesday.

U.S. uranium sales down as price soars

As the price of uranium surged another $7 over the past week, the U.S. Energy Department may scale back its inventory sale and open a strategic reserve.

Uranium prices hit $120 per pound Monday, the weekly pricing date, on the heels of expected growing demand and a new futures trading product offered by the New York Mercantile Exchange and uranium analyst Ux Consulting.

Iran nuclear talks 'very difficult:' EU's Solana

EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana said on Monday his talks with Iran on its disputed nuclear program were very difficult because Tehran did not want to suspend uranium enrichment, but it was worth trying.

"The situation as you know is very difficult because what we are demanding from Iran is the suspension of activities as long as the negotiations take place ... For the moment this is very difficult to obtain," he told a European Parliament committee.

Costly Corn Kills VeraSun's Ethanol Profits

Wall Street expected VeraSun to make money, but expensive corn is causing problems for the ethanol industry's economics

The high cost of corn is hurting ethanol makers, with VeraSun Energy (VSE) providing the latest dose of weak earnings news.

Natural Gas Outlook: Higher Consumption, Surging Prices, High Rig Counts

Consumption. Colder weather through the first 4 months of the year compared with last year (13 percent more heating degree-days) has prompted a rise in expectations for total natural gas consumption in 2007 (Total U.S. Natural Gas Consumption Growth). Total consumption was up more than 10 percent in the first quarter of 2007 compared with the same period last year. In annual terms, natural gas consumption is expected to rise by 3.4 percent in 2007 and by 0.9 percent in 2008.

Investigative journalist reports peak oil by 2020

The end of oil is nigh... but not if you believe politicians or oil companies.

Experts predict that oil production is about to peak, plateau and then fall, creating a demand that will be greater than supply that will result in oil shocks and economic consequences that will affect all.

Peak Oil or Dependence on Russian Gas – Which is more important for Turkish Public?

If you have read Freakonomics, you may find this paragraph inspired from it. But the example is quite common. When a terrorist attack happens, for days we talk about terrorism, why this happened? An attack does not only distract attention to itself but also increase the inflow of people interested in this subject to the academic discussion. More students tend to work on this subject. But which one will save more lives? Finding a solution to terrorism or wearing a safety belt?

Housing Hangover - 05/08/07

April Foreclosure Filings More Than Double Over 2006

U.S. homeowners entered the foreclosure process in April at more than double the rate of a year ago as tightening credit made it more difficult to refinance and a swelling supply of unsold homes made it tough to sell.

Foreclosure maven

Alexis McGee talks about as fast as anyone you'll ever meet. She has to, for this is her time.

"The stars are aligned, guys," she tells a national audience of foreclosure investors, each paying $19.95 to hear her 90-minute conference call from Kauai's Poipu Beach, where she is on a working vacation. "The time has never been like it is right now. We have more chances to buy than we've ever had before."

Record number of unsold homes flood market

Tempted by a generous price cut, Cynthia Saenz couldn't resist buying a new house in Vail about eight months ago.

But after reaping benefits on the buyers' side of the market, Saenz is languishing on the sellers' side.

She put her Southeast Side house up for sale five months ago and has reduced the 1,800-square-foot home's price from $230,000 to $200,000. Still, it hasn't sold.

NH foreclosures jump as 'exotic' loans' rates adjust

Hundreds of New Hampshire homeowners are losing their homes to foreclosure, victims of a nationwide crisis within the "subprime" mortgage industry.

And experts say it's going to get worse before it gets better.

Tucker Carlson interviews Ron Paul

Energy Links Jamboree - 05/06/07

The Global Empire of Niall Ferguson: Doing history on a sweeping scale

Here is an image calculated to ruffle the feathers of all red-blooded Americans:

Consuming on credit, reluctant to go to the front line, inclined to lose interest in protracted undertakings: if all this conjures up an image of America as a sedentary Colossus—to put it bluntly, a kind of strategic couch potato—then the image may be worth pondering.

Chávez Rattles Takeover Saber at Steel Company and Banks

President Hugo Chávez is deepening efforts to assert greater control over the economy by dictating changes to the operations of a large Argentine-controlled steel maker and threatening to nationalize banks controlled by financial institutions from the United States and Spain.

Peak Oil and U.S. Representative Vernon Ehlers

This morning, I brought up Peak Oil in a town hall meeting with U.S. Representative Vernon Ehlers of Michigan.

Representative Ehlers was formerly a nuclear physicist, is one of only three scientists in Congress, and is extremely well versed on both energy and Peak Oil.

The Spirituality of Collapse

The first edition of this article was written in February, 2006, but I have recently revised and updated it. Since the first writing, the theme of collapse seems to have reverberated around the world, now manifesting its symptoms in the scientific community’s latest dramatic reports on global warming, the issue of Peak Oil coming further out of the closet--being discussed openly in mainstream media, and the bursting of the U.S. housing bubble that now finds 1 out of every 264 homes in the nation facing foreclosure as each day the value of the dollar decreases and the value of precious metals soars.

Iraq's oil production falls short of goals

Despite years of rebuilding, petroleum production continues to fall short of targets, due to insurgency vandalism, poor field management, and corruption.

Houston's competition for the energy capital title

If you work in Houston, there’s a good chance it's for a company that has something to do with the oil industry.

And if your company doesn’t, your neighbor’s probably does.

But are those jobs in jeopardy because of a rising new player in the world-wide oil business?

Ron Paul at the May 3rd Republican Debate

Energy Links Jamboree - 05/05/07

Pentagon and the End of Oil

It looks like someone in the Pentagon started reading about peak oil, got alarmed, and decided to take the typical course of action: commission a report. According to an article in the Boston Globe, the report comes to the unsurprising conclusion that dependence on oil is indeed a problem:

Why We Disagree on Peak Oil and Climate Change: Part III - Our Belief Systems

In the first two parts of this series, we looked at some of the factual reasons why people disagree on the timing and importance of Peak Oil: gross versus net oil production, better technology vs depletion, productive capacity vs flow rates, differing definitions of "Peak", etc. This post will address some social and psychological reasons why the urgency of our energy situation may not be being addressed on an individual level and only at a snails pace on the governmental level. Among the phenomena we will explore are a) why we have beliefs and how they are changed, b) our propensity to believe in authority figures, c) our penchant for optimism, d) cognitive load theory, d) relative fitness, e) the recency effect, and several others. The fact is, even if the world's energy data was transparent and freely available to everyone, it would be an open question whether people would agree on any near term action to mitigate future oil scarcity.

Energy: The Grim Future For Our Global Community

In our global community, the markets are intertwined. The energy market is the largest market in the world. Energy effect’s everyone’s day to day life. Decreasing supply and increasing demand has cause political strife and social determent even beyond inconvenience of three dollar per gallon of gasoline.

Can you solve the world oil crisis?

A new free internet lets you experience what life could be like when the world runs out of oil.

World Without Oil is an interactive experiment, produced by the design team at Writerguy, is touted as the first alternative reality game to ask millions of internet users to solve the impending crisis.

Oil Market Is `Well-Supplied,' OPEC President Says

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, supplier of more than 40 percent of the world's oil, won't meet before September because the crude market is currently ``well supplied,'' its president said.

``Our meeting is scheduled in September,'' Mohamed al- Hamli, who is also the oil minister of the United Arab Emirates, said in an interview today in Riyadh, where he is attending a meeting of Asian energy ministers. ``At the moment, there is no intention to hold a meeting before then.

Richard Heinberg's Museletter #181: Talking Ourselves to Extinction

Language is a powerful meta-tool that dramatically amplifies cooperative human efforts to control the environment. Language also opens the possibility for religion and science—which otherwise would not exist. Language helped generate our current ecological dilemma. Can language help solve it?

Peak Oil Passnotes: Empires That Never Die

Quite rightly human beings do not generally like being ruled over by people from other countries. We could run through a whole host of examples from Vietnam to Ireland to Hungary, Ukraine and Estonia. People also do not like being under the influence of other country’s power. They do not like being dominated by bigger neighbours or greater economic clout. Even if it means being poorer or making their own mistakes.

Failing the Energy IQ Test

History suggests that energy is an IQ test that Americans tend to fail. In response to the Oil Crises of the 1970s, the United States wasted billions in a futile effort to jumpstart oil shale and other synfuels. Then federal automotive fuel-efficiency standards and flush production from newly discovered giant fields in Mexico, Alaska and the North Sea bailed us out. By 1985 oil prices had dropped to $10 a barrel and American energy policy went back to its default position, “stuck on stupid.”

Housing Hangover - 05/05/07

Subprime CDO pricing getting perilous, managers say

Pricing of collateralized debt obligation bonds laden with subprime mortgage securities is getting more perilous amid deep uncertainties over when ratings on the assets will be downgraded, money managers and Wall Street analysts said.

Subprime lender cuts 2,000 jobs

Financially strapped subprime-mortgage lender New Century Financial failed to receive any bids for its mortgage-loan-origination business, forcing it to shut down the unit and lay off about 2,000 employees, the company told employees Thursday.

Hovnanian Posts Loss, Says Subprime Is Curbing Sales

Hovnanian Enterprises Inc., the worst performing U.S. homebuilder stock, reported a wider second- quarter loss than earlier forecast and said the subprime mortgage crisis is exacerbating weakness in the home sales market. The shares fell 4 percent.

GM profit plunges after housing finance loss

General Motors Corp. (NYSE:GM - news) on Thursday reported a 90 percent drop in first-quarter earnings, missing Wall Street estimates by a wide margin, as mortgage-related losses at its GMAC affiliate swamped gains in its main business.

Home values drop 7.4 percent

Median home values in the Sacramento area dropped 7.4 percent in the first quarter from a year ago, the latest evidence the housing market slowdown continues in the region.

Yolo County endured the region's largest decline in value, at 13.2 percent to $394,990, according to Zillow.com, an online real estate tracking company in Seattle.

Debt, Deficit, Derivatives & Delusions - 05/04/07(Update 1)

Derivatives hint at weak April job growth

Investors believe the U.S. economy generated around 88,900 new jobs in April, according to the results of a derivatives auction.

Such a rise was smaller than that generally expected by Wall Street forecasters, who are looking for a somewhat larger 100,000 increase.

Paulson repeats China must let currency value rise

US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said on Thursday that China should quickly let its currency rise in value and let market forces play a greater role in recognition of its own economic might.

"It is quite important that their currency appreciate more rapidly," Paulson told several hundred students at Harvard University as he continued a series of discussions about the importance of keeping US-Chinese relations on an even keel.

India's trade deficit widens despite upward revision of export figures

India's trade deficit widened 40.5 per cent in the fiscal year ended March 31, this year to $56.74 billion despite an upward revision in export data for the April-February 2006-07 period.

While announcing the March 2007 foreign trade data, the commerce ministry has announced an upward revision of export data for April-February 2006-07 by about $3 billion.

Dick Cheney's Banker Grantham Sees World Bubble: William Pesek

You'd expect someone whom the famously dour Dick Cheney entrusts with millions of his dollars might have a gloomy view of the world. Jeremy Grantham does indeed.

``From Indian antiquities to modern Chinese art; from land in Panama to Mayfair; from forestry, infrastructure and the junkiest bonds to mundane blue chips -- it's bubble time,'' he writes in Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co.'s latest quarterly letter titled ``The First Truly Global Bubble.''

U.S. Dollar Declining, Global Community Rising

Martin Weiss, Ph.D. examines the declining value of the dollar and how it directly affects the U.S. economy as well as the global community. In this issue of Money and Markets, Dr. Weiss discusses the plunge in the dollar verses the rising values of foreign currencies as well as the affects the dollar is having on the U.S. Housing industry.

According to Weiss, the U.S. dollar is sinking. No one is able to come to the rescue. Investors who fail to take protective action could get hurt badly. And those that act promptly stand to make some of the greatest fortunes in recent memory.

THE WORLD’S GREATEST UNREPORTED HYPERINFLATION

Zimbabwe has entered the hell of hyperinflation. Indeed, inflation in March rose by well over the 50% monthly threshold for qualifying as hyperinflation. The reporting of Zimbabwe’s travails invariably includes the standard reference to Weimar Germany’s 1922-23 hyperinflation, in which the monthly inflation rate peaked at 32,400%. The choice of this Weimar reference is somewhat curious. After all, the world’s greatest monthly hyperinflation rate was recorded in Hungary in July 1946, and it was 12 orders of magnitude greater than that of the peak month of the Weimar hyperinflation. As is the case with much economic and financial data, the Hungarian record has simply tumbled down what George Orwell called a “memory hole.”

Indian trade deficit nears US$57b as oil imports soar

India's trade deficit widened to nearly US$57 billion in the year ended March as a surge in the cost of imports led by oil offset a record year for exports, government data showed Tuesday.

Exports rose 23.9 percent to a record US$124.6 billion, in line with a target of US$125 billion for the year, while imports jumped 29.3 percent to US$181.4 billion led by oil, the government said.

Asia Draws on $2.7 Trillion of Reserves to Safeguard Currencies

Asian finance ministers will this week probably agree to pool part of the region's $2.7 trillion in foreign-exchange holdings to prevent a repeat of the crisis that depleted reserves ten years ago.

Loan derivatives poised for explosive growth

The market for derivatives of the risky corporate loans that are generally used to fund private equity buy-out deals is beginning to enjoy improving trading volumes and many are predicting that the next 12 months will see explosive growth.

Canadian Mint Introduces Wheel-Sized Pure Gold Coin

The Royal Canadian Mint today unveiled a gold coin that's as big as a car wheel and as thick as a hardcover novel, in a bid to help win business lost to global competitors.

The 100-kilogram (220-pound) coin, which is 99.999 percent pure gold, the largest and purest piece ever made, was shown to reporters for the first time today at the mint in Ottawa. While each coin has a face value of C$1 million ($900,000), the purity and quantity of the bullion gold they're made of makes them worth more than twice as much, based on current prices.

Energy Links Jamboree -05/03/07

World Without Oil, First Alternate Reality Game to Confront a Major Social Issue: A Worldwide Oil Shock

Everyone knows that "someday" the world may face an oil shortage. What if that day was sooner than you thought? What if it started today? How would your life change? PBS' Independent Lens and its Electric Shadows Web-original programming today launched WORLD WITHOUT OIL, a live interactive month-long alternate reality event to explore this very real possibility.

Energy, Cycle Theory and a Weak Dollar

Regarding our latest observation that we may be at the start of a great, resource-intensive cycle of industrialization, one reader mentions the natural limit in the growth of any system: energy. “When we consider the growth of different economies and the cycle of resources I think it is of great importance to consider where we are in peak oil! Oil will be the final and deciding factor of this cycle of expansion.” Probably so. Check out Exxon Mobil’s thoughts on Peak Oil.

Global Oil Production Peaking: What Happens Now?

One needs to note that the energy issues at hand are not purely economic. While the market will indeed force supply and demand into sink, the issue of petroleum reserves and exploration is not an economic issue but is rather an issue of geology.

Iran won't budge an inch on nuclear: Ahmadinejad

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad vowed on Wednesday that Iran would not yield "an inch" on its nuclear programme despite the reopening of talks with the European Union to find a solution to the standoff.

"We do not ask for an inch more than our rights and we will not yield an inch on our nuclear rights," said Ahmadinejad in a speech to crowds of supporters at a stadium in the southern city of Kerman.

The Peak Oil Crisis: Week Twelve

For three months now, US gasoline stockpiles have been dropping steadily. Nationwide, gasoline prices jumped 10.2 cents a gallon last week to an average of $2.97 and $3.46 around San Francisco.

Last week, US gasoline stockpiles dropped for the 12th straight week by another 1.1 million barrels as US motorists continued to burn up gasoline at a rate 1.6 percent higher than last year. While refinery utilization at 88.3 percent is still well below what is needed to build up stocks for the summer driving season, refiners did manage to produce another 300,000 barrels of gasoline per day which reduced the pace at which gasoline stockpiles have been dropping; 1 million barrels last week vs. the 4 million barrels per week we saw earlier last month. US imports remained the same last week at 1.2 million barrels per day, also well below the 1.5-1.6 required to build up stockpiles for the summer.

Green in the black?

Three cheers for the Butz brothers and the rest of the crew at Chesapeake Green Fuels LLC ("The fuel future," April 29). Not only are they a textbook case study in the American entrepreneurial spirit, they are working in an emerging technology that may become a player in the new age of energy.

Oil and coal ushered the world into the industrial age, but the double whammy of depletion of the earth's oil reserves and the global warming that fossil fuels have created makes change imperative. As reported in the story, Chesapeake Green Fuels is focusing on one of scores of new technologies that, together, offer hope for the United States, perhaps the entire world, to slowly wean itself from its petroleum addiction.