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Friday, October 03, 2008

Inflation or Deflation?

Mish at Global Economic Analysis is still convinced that we are headed for deflation. I am not so sure. Here is why:

What will be the effect of all the deficits that the local, state, and Federal governments will be running. The fact that we are entering this recession/depression from a period of high levels of deficits, don't give me much confidence in deflationary theory.

All the Keynesians and Monetarists infesting the government wouldn't want government to shrink, people wouldn't want it either. What will that do to the dollar?

What if the Chinese and Japanese governments use their dollar reserves to stimulate their economies? What impact will it have on the dollar?

I also believe, that it's not just subprime borrower, but our whole country is broke. How could that be good for us as a borrower? How can that be good for the dollar? Do you think, given the conditions, it will be easy for the deficit spending government to knock on the door of People's Bank of China, Bank of Japan or Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency, and get approved for credit as we frequently as we will need them?
The fact that no player in the market wants to buy the subprime loans is telling. It is worthless. Who would want to buy the currency ( increasingly backed by failed mortgages ) of a country that is essentially bankrupt?
There is no doubt that the credit turmoil in America will have it's ripple effects across the rest of the world, but does it change the fact that we still are the subprime borrower ?
Addendum 10/04/08 12:04AM pacific:
Another way to look at USD as a CMO backed by the worst mortgages in America. A mortgage backed currency called Assignat was once tried in france. It led to hyperinflation and a collapse.

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6 Comments:

Anonymous HeliBen said...

Mish is always convinced deflation will happen and bends his arguments to be so. In fact Mish thinks deflation is always happening around him with pink iPods, RE in Dansville, Walmart back to school sales, and Bennigan's Monti Cristo prices.

10/03/2008 7:45 PM  
Anonymous HeliBen said...

So you buying oil right now Oil or waiting?

Personally I think we will see 80, and mayyyybe 60, and it will be a good year before we start the next round.

Nonetheless oil is going to at least 400 a barrel.

10/03/2008 7:49 PM  
Blogger Oil Shock said...

Heliben,

Everyone including Kudlow and Cramer are peeing in their pants. I think market is close to a short term bottom. I am very bullish on the prospects of Oil, but the short to medium term is unpredictable. I agree that Oil is going to pluto, but I don't see it happening this year.

10/04/2008 12:07 AM  
Blogger Wade said...

OilShock/heliben,
I have to confess I feel betrayed by Schiff (wrong on decoupling, wrong on dollar) and feel Mish has earned props. And I'm inclined to believe he's right that deflation could run awhile.

I believe in Peak Oil w/ conviction; but how can anyone estimate whether demand destruction (due to depressed activity, alternatives, etc.) stays ahead of the reduced supply curve? How can u know where/when oil might bottom, or how long it might stay low, depending on demand and currency value?

Don't we have to be right on timing of this so as not to get wiped out? I'm feeling rather vulnerable w/ 25% of my assets in energy right now (mostly trusts), with only a 12% short position (no confidence in shorting given rule changes any more).

Any thoughts from u guys on compelling arguments that might impact allocation/timing decisions re: oil?

I feel better when I'm long oil, and have added positions on this pull back, but it occurs to me oil could correct sharply and stay low if sufficient demand is destroyed.

Thanks for any thought u can share.

10/04/2008 6:48 PM  
Blogger Oil Shock said...

Wade,

Mish's analysis is spot on in many areas, but to me, deflation is not one of them. If you go back and look at Mish's posts from 1-2 years ago, he was bullish on the dollar, when the dollar index was at 85. Dollar did cliff dive from that level. It is still below that level. He turned bearish on Oil when it dived from 79 to 50, in 2006. But oil ran from 50 to 147. Just the fact that fear reigns supreme in Wall Street, we might be close to a bottom atleast for this last quarter.

We are entering an unprecendented period. All of us, including Mish and Peter Schiff, will be surprised by how things play out.

I will stay in the trusts. My portfolio is more than 40% in energy 20% in Gold, 10% in infrastrcuture, and 20% cash and 10% options.

10/04/2008 7:30 PM  
Blogger Wade said...

OilShock,
Thanks for your reply... and thanks for your posts over the months... I've benefited from your perspective.

I'm 25% long energy, 33% long gold/silver, 12% shorts, 5% foreign longs, mostly infrastructure/utilities, and 20% cash/Treasuries.

Can I ask if your confidence in energy is more due to your expectation of fiat debasement or due to your views on limits in demand destruction?

I'm still fearful of how sharply the world economy might contract, thus killing demand for energy, thou leaving in tact the probable debasement of currency.

10/05/2008 6:30 PM  

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