Peak Oil Linkfest - 07/28/07

Oil Rises on Signs U.S. Gasoline Supplies Dropped a Fourth Week

Crude oil in New York rose to the highest close since Aug. 15 on speculation that U.S. gasoline supplies declined for a fourth week.

Gasoline supplies fell 2.3 million barrels in the week ended Aug. 24, according to the median of responses by 10 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. The crude-oil market often follows gasoline during the summer. Prices were down earlier on speculation that subprime-mortgage losses in the U.S. will spread through the economy, reducing growth and demand for fuels.


The Gasoline Crisis in Iran

In late June 2007, the Iranian government launched a comprehensive gasoline rationing policy, necessitated, in part, by the growing demand for gasoline in Iran's domestic market that could not be met by its oil production infrastructure.

Although Iran is among the world's major exporters of crude oil, it has limited processing and refining facilities, and thus must import most of its refined oil for domestic use. There has been no significant investment in developing its oil refining facilities since the Shah's era, and Iran depends entirely on imported gasoline.


Tomgram: Dilip Hiro, America on the Downward Slope

Pick up the paper any day and you'll find tiny straws in the wind (or headlines inside the fold) reflecting the seeping away of American power. The President of the planet's "sole superpower" and his top diplomats and commanders have been denouncing Iran for months as the evil hand behind American disaster in Iraq as well as Afghanistan.


Energy Report is Handgrenade in Bubblewrap

The working draft of the National Petroleum Council’s forecast of global oil and gas trends runs to nearly 500 pages. Weighing as much as the chunk of foam that brought down the Space Shuttle Columbia, this curious document reads like a hand grenade encased in Bubble Wrap. Since its release, the report (and a more digestible 40-page executive summary) has received 750,000 hits. (www.npc.org.).

Facing the Hard Truths About Energy is perplexing, even schizophrenic. In maddening fashion, it blends numerous cautions about the “accumulating risks” to global oil and gas production with repeated, rosy reassurances that we “aren’t running out,” as if anyone said we were.


The last straw? Alongside debt, rising food prices threaten industrial growth

Just when the world economy seemed to have found immunity to rising world fuel prices, the rising world grain price may be the shock that finally ends its long upturn, as costlier food baskets eat into household budgets.

A surge in world oil prices - to over $70 per barrel this month, almost double the level of two years ago – has not caused a return to the production downturns and price rises (‘stagflation’) that followed previous petroleum shocks in 1973 and 1979. The global economy continues to grow strongly, with emerging markets expanding fast and a pick-up in the EU offsetting signs of slowdown in the US. Relocation of industrial production, and a widening range of services, to low-cost countries is suppressing northern hemisphere inflation rates. Among the biggest of the emerging markets, Russia’s boom is being fed by oil, China’s is still largely powered by coal, Brazil is rapidly substituting its fossil energy needs from biofuel, and India’s rising exports and capital inflows have stopped its growth being checked by rising oil demand.


Meat prices set to soar as production costs mount: analyst

The price of meat may soon increase as production costs mount and demand outstrips supply, a British analyst said Tuesday.

Richard Crane, a London-based analyst with the consulting firm Deloitte, said beef, pork and poultry producers are struggling with rising feed costs. Grain prices reached an unprecedented peak of $7.44 U.S. a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade market last week after climbing steadily for months.


How Weak Dollar Affects OPEC

When oil price spikes have occurred in the past, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has quickly increased supply, taking advantage of the high U.S. dollar selling price, but also thereby eventually driving down the oil price, making Americans and everyone else who uses oil happy.

But now, even with oil prices nearing a record high, opec is not stepping up production. Why?


OPEC has set unofficial target price of 70 usd per barrel for oil - IEA

OPEC has set an unofficial target oil price of around 70 usd per barrel, which could weigh on growth, said Claude Mandil, director general of the International Energy Agency, in an interview with the Arab Oil & Gas monthly.

'The market has become aware' that OPEC 'has set an implicit new objective of keeping prices at or around 70 usd per barrel and that the organisation is trying to defend this level,' said Mandil.


July oil output drops at Mexico's Cantarell field

Crude oil output dropped in July at Mexico's aging Cantarell offshore field, according to data published on the energy ministry's Web site on Monday. Cantarell, closely watched by the oil industry after sharp dips in output in recent months, produced an average of 1.526 million barrels per day versus 1.570 million bpd in June.

The figure meant Cantarell accounted for just 48.2 per cent of Mexico's overall crude oil output last month, continuing a steady decline over the past year at the field, which once produced around 60 per cent of the country's oil.


The end of oil is not a possibility but a certainty

Regardless of how long you've been alive, whether you're 16 or 60, it's never been a problem to get gasoline. The ability to fill our gas tanks has often felt as guaranteed to Americans as free speech and free press. However, the privilege of gas may become a thing of the past quicker than we may think.

There is one fact often overlooked when dealing with the issue of oil and that is this: We cannot make a finite resource infinite.


How Corn Ethanol Could Pollute the Bay

Despite rising food prices, it seems that nearly everyone is turning to corn-based ethanol as their choice for alternative fuel. Hidden behind these headlines, though, is an equally important but less visible cost: water pollution.

Corn is a "leaky" crop, losing more nitrogen per acre than most other crops. In the Washington region, much of this excess nitrogen ends up polluting the Chesapeake Bay and robbing fish, crabs and oysters of oxygen.

Peak Oil Linkfest -06/23/07

Envoy: Tehran open to nuclear compromise

Key U.S. allies are debating the idea of a nuclear compromise with Iran that would call for only a partial freeze of Tehran's uranium enrichment program -- a stance that could put them at odds with Washington, officials said Friday.

Sign up for: Globe Headlines e-mail | Breaking News Alerts The officials -- U.S. and European diplomats and government employees -- told The Associated Press that the deliberations among senior British, French and German decision-makers were only preliminary and that no conclusions had been drawn.

UN: Climate Change Causes Darfur Slaughter

One fifth of the world lives on less than $1 a day; 1.2 billion do not have access to safe, drinkable water; and every year, 2.2 million die from disease brought on by contaminated water. A clash of civilizations is developing between Islam and the West. On a less life-threatening but still troubling note, 876 million people are illiterate.

An inconvenient Swede

Kjell Aleklett, a perky and persuasive physicist at Uppsala University, talks with characteristic Swedish candour. As president of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil, he jokes that all the big "strawberries" in the world's oilfields have been thoroughly picked over. ("Peak oil" just means the end of cheap oil.) Fifty years ago, the world burned four billion barrels of oil a year and happily discovered lots of big berry patches — 30 billion barrels a year. Today, those figures are exactly reversed, which goes a long way toward explaining volatile oil prices and Sweden's determined plan to get off fossil fuels by 2020. "Money is not running the world," the jaunty global player likes to say during his talks. "Money is used to buy energy." Right.

Peak Oil Passnotes: Let Me Tell You an Inventory

The prospects for oil prices rising have been knocked this week, so we are told. U.S. inventories are at nine-year highs, and the cost of a barrel of Brent crude fell back down below $70 this week, albeit by only a few cents.

But this is not the real story. Inventories in the United States are high because the refinery complex in the country is in such a weak state. Due to bits falling off, explosions, gas leaks and the odd death – another one at BP’s Texas City refinery recently – the U.S. cannot process the crude that is arriving on its shores.

Born In The Eye Of The Storm

I was sitting in the air conditioned sunroom in front of a 46” TV the other day, sipping a gin and tonic and taking in a bit of evening news about the start of the hurricane season. Just off the sunroom, a rack of boneless chicken breasts were marinating as they awaited the grill. Home made potato salad, baked beans and corn on the cob would round out the menu that evening, all foods that made me think of summer days at home when the family would gather for a barbecue. And I thought to myself, what a good life I have had, a simple life by most American standards, but one that would be the envy of thousands of previous generations. While the wealthy and privileged of days yore might boast about their palatial estates, artwork, fancy furniture, and house servants, not one of them could go out and settle into their very own personal automobile, (a vehicle capable of doing the work of over 100 horses), and zip about at the heretofore ungodly speed of 70mph if they had a mind.


Global energy use slowed in 2006: BP

Despite stronger economic growth, the rise in global energy consumption slowed in 2006, according to global energy major BP. Energy prices remained high by historical standards, although price movements in 2006 varied by fuel type and region, BP’s head (energy analysis) Mark Finley told Gulf Times here yesterday. Releasing the ‘BP Statistical Review of World Energy’, Finley said the growth in global primary energy consumption in 2006 was 2.4%, down from 3.2% in 2005 and just above the 10-year average. The growth slowed for every fuel except nuclear power.


Busting the peak oil myth

Last fortnight, a leading oil MNC came out with its Annual Statistical Review of World Energy and leading business papers splashed it across their front pages. This is an annual ritual in which the company reminds the world that oil is a scarce commodity and will soon be extinct like the dodo.

As per the review, India’s oil reserves will last another 19.3 years while global reserves will last 40.5 years.

Texas oil tycoon turning to wind power

Billionaire oil tycoon T. Boone Pickens is wants to make big bucks in wind energy boom by building the world's largest wind farm in West Texas.

Pickens plans to install large wind turbines in parts of four Panhandle counties in a project that would produce up to 4,000 megawatts of electricity.

If Pickens' company, Mesa Power LP, does build the wind farm it would be the largest in the world, American Wind Energy Association spokeswoman Susan Williams Sloan said. It would generate more than five times the 735 megawatts produced at the present largest wind farm near Abilene.


The third trillion barrels of oil: where are they and how will we get them?

Speaking at the recent Society of Petroleum Engineers’ R&D conference BP Group Vice President for Technology Tony Meggs wondered how the industry will get its next trillion barrels of oil.

Today the mind-set of assumed surplus appears to be changing rapidly. People (and governments in particular) are increasingly concerned with where the next barrel is coming from. The prevailing mind set is becoming one of anxiety and insecurity. And not just about the quantity of supply - but who controls it. Concern about climate change adds to our fears. Energy has risen to the very top of political agendas around the world, and it's likely to stay there for the foreseeable future. That's the context in which we're looking for the third trillion.


The Real and Present Danger of U.S. War on Iran…and the Urgency of Resistance

“I think we've got to be prepared to take aggressive military action against the Iranians to stop them from killing Americans in Iraq. And to me, that would include a strike over the border into Iran…”
-Senator Joseph Lieberman, interviewed on CBS News Face the Nation, June 10

This statement by Lieberman is the latest in a string of charges, warnings, and military threats against Iran by the Bush administration, others in the U.S. ruling class, and international allies of the United States. They reflect the rapid and profound intensification of contradictions across the Middle East, rising tensions between the Bush regime and the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the grave danger of a U.S. military attack on Iran. Most people, including many deeply opposed to the Iraq war, are either unaware of or greatly underestimate this danger. This situation must change—now. Any U.S. attacks would be unjust and criminal no matter the pretext. It would represent a major escalation—with unpredictable consequences—of naked imperialist aggression by the U.S. in the Middle East.


Russia suggested forming “grain OPEC”

Russia has proposed a new organization to coordinate world grain trade should be created, the Russian Minister of Agriculture said Wednesday. The new organization has already been called Grain OPEC, as their structures have much in common.

The minister noted that all countries of the world should balance their grain production and consumption in view of growing requirements for grain to produce bio fuel and supply industries. Thus, it is vital for grain-producing countries to coordinate their efforts in trade and production.


Pemex Says May Oil Output Falls 6.6% From Year Ago

Petroleos Mexicanos, the state-owned oil monopoly, said crude production fell 6.6 percent in May from a year earlier and dropped to its lowest this year as the company struggles with declining output from its Cantarell field.

Daily output was 3.11 million barrels, down from 3.33 million in May 2006, the Mexico City-based company said today in a report on its Web site. January's production of 3.14 million barrels was the previous low for the year.


Clock ticking on global oil supply

The debate over how much readily accessible oil remains on Earth has been revived with the release of a new report that suggests there is enough to last about 40 years.

But critics say British Petroleum's 2007 "Statistical Review Of World Energy," released this month, is far too optimistic.

The Peak Oil Crisis: Approaching The Cliff

Last weekend across southern South Dakota the pumps went dry. Gas terminals from Sioux Falls to Yankton to Sioux City were empty. “There is simply not enough fuel coming down the pipeline into the delivery system” said a BP station owner. Eventually the tankers were sent to Nebraska to find gas. A minor glitch in the distribution? Possibly, but more likely a harbinger of more serious problems to come.

Meanwhile, I would like to tell you that Congress, which has been debating energy bills for the last two weeks, is getting ready to pass legislation that will make our lives easier during the troubled years ahead. Sadly, I cannot. From their public pronouncements and posturing, it is unlikely more than a dozen members of Congress have the slightest idea of what 2007 energy legislation should be trying to accomplish in an urgent manner.

Peak Oil Linkfest - 06/15/07

World oil supplies are set to run out faster than expected, warn scientists

Scientists have criticised a major review of the world's remaining oil reserves, warning that the end of oil is coming sooner than governments and oil companies are prepared to admit.

BP's Statistical Review of World Energy, published yesterday, appears to show that the world still has enough "proven" reserves to provide 40 years of consumption at current rates. The assessment, based on officially reported figures, has once again pushed back the estimate of when the world will run dry.

Import Bingo

Live by the imports or die by the imports. With US refineries continuing to struggle, our fortunes with gasoline supply and price are becoming increasingly dependant on imports. And if we aren’t breaking records we have to rely on our broken refinery system.

Where have all the imports gone? Long time passing: A drop in refinery runs and a drop in gasoline imports set the stage for a big up day in the petroleum complex. Traders convinced that gasoline supplies would increase by as much as 2 million barrels were stunned to see that supplies of gasoline basically flat from the dismally low levels from the week before. It's clear that US refiners are in disarray but you still have to give them an "A" for effort, or at least a smiley face and a gold star. Because even with refineries running at a dismal 89.2% of capacity they were able to up gasoline production from the week before to about 9.3 million barrels a day. It is amazing what you can do when margins are sky high. That of course is still short of the average daily demand of 9.5 million barrels a day but it shows that the refiners are focused on doing everything they can to produce as much gasoline as they possibly can.


Qantas' cold comfort

IT was one of those mornings yesterday for hundreds of bleary-eyed passengers out at Melbourne Airport.

Having struggled through Melbourne's coldest morning of the year before dawn, most early passengers went nowhere due to ice on the aircraft.

20 years later, we still have 40 years of oil left

BP Statistical Review of World Energy released a report that estimated there are enough world petroleum reserves to last for 40 years, assuming we consume at our current rates. The article notes that in the 1980’s the amount of proven reserves was also 40 years. 20 years go by, consumption rates change, new customers change, new oil fields are found, old ones produce more, and voila, is we’re good to go for another 40 years of oil.

Peak Oil Update - June 2007: Production Forecasts and EIA Oil Production Numbers

Monthly production records are unchanged except for NGPL:
All Liquids: the peak is still July 2006 at 85.43 mbpd, the year to date average production in 2007 (2 months) is 84.26 mbpd, up 0.2 mbpd from 2006.
Crude Oil + NGL: the peak date remains May 2005 at 82.08 mbpd, the year to date average production for 2007 (2 months) is 81.24 mbpd, down 0.06 mbpd from 2006.
Crude Oil + Condensate: the peak date remains May 2005 at 74.15 mbpd, the year to date average production for 2007 (2 months) is 73.09 mbpd, down 0.25 mbpd from 2006.
NGPL: the peak date is now February 2007 at 8.24 mbpd, the year to date average production for 2007 (2 months) is 8.15 mbpd, up 0.19 mbpd from 2006.

Global warming future: Drought, wildfire, floods, pestilence

Top climate scientists offered Western governors an assessment on the impacts of global warming that sounded like something out of the Old Testament: drought, wildfire, floods and pestilence.

More importantly, the governors themselves put to rest any remaining doubt on a human role in the problem.

"Are there any respected scientific organizations left that dispute what you are saying?" asked Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr., adding, "and you can't say the White House and Congress."

Scientists warn that oil will start to run out in four years' time

Scientists have criticised a major review of the world's remaining oil reserves, warning that the end of oil is coming sooner than governments and oil companies are prepared to admit.

BP's Statistical Review of World Energy, published yesterday, appears to show that the world still has enough "proven" reserves to provide 40 years of consumption at current rates. The assessment, based on officially reported figures, has once again pushed back the estimate of when the world will run dry.

Opec says oil demand at 1.5%

Opec has left unchanged its estimate of 2007 world oil demand growth at 1.5%, or 1.3m bpd, in its June monthly report, according to MarketWatch. Opec has repeatedly resisted calls by oil consuming nations to put more crude on world markets. The group said the US downstream sector was tight, and the market is likely to remain exposed to refinery glitches.

Securing the future - An oil company perspective

Ladies and gentlemen. Good afternoon. It’s a great pleasure to be here today – in some senses returning to my roots. What I would like to do is to step back and reflect on the challenges the world faces in the matter of energy and what we as an industry might do to meet the challenge.

The 21st century dawned with a great sense of optimism. The Cold War, which had dominated the previous half-century, was over and with its end the spirits of the world were lifted. The battle of political ideas had apparently been won - free markets and democracy triumphed over the centrally planned state. A dynamic new information age offered enhanced freedom and prosperity. The revolution in the biological sciences promised health, beauty and longevity. World trade took off and, in the less developed nations, hundreds of millions of people were joining the world economy for the first time, seizing the chance to lift themselves out of poverty.


The future of North Sea oil

Will June 14, 2007, be added to the list of defining dates in the history of North Sea oil? The doomsayers might think so. The chronology goes back to 1964, when the first UK offshore licence was granted. Other important dates include 1967 (when the first gas field started production) and 1975 (when it was oil's turn). Production is past its peak and those of a pessimistic disposition will interpret yesterday's announcement that Shell, along with Esso, are to sell most of their northern North Sea assets as confirmation that the North Sea basin is on a slippery slope of moribundity.

OPEC should raise output: Energy secretary

OPEC should weigh recent projections for higher crude demand this year and raise its output if appropriate, U.S. Energy Secretary Sam Bodman said Wednesday.

This week the International Energy Agency, adviser to 26 industrialized countries, and its U.S. counterpart, the federal Energy Information Administration, both accelerated the rate of oil use growth from the previous month's forecasts.

'Bomb, bomb, bomb Iran'

US Senator Joseph Lieberman's call for cross-border bombing raids into Iran appears to be the culmination of a two-week campaign by proponents of war to put the military option center-stage in the US debate over Iran once more.

The immediate effect of reigniting the let's-bomb-Iran discussions is the undercutting of the recently initiated US-Iran talks over Iraq, which in turn will cause the military confrontation with Iran to be viewed in a new light.

Greenspan says oil output a threat to Mexico

Declining oil output in Mexico could spark a major fiscal crisis there, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said Wednesday while also railing against U.S. immigration policy.

"There is no doubt that Mexican overall [oil] production is down and if it continues down, and prices don't continue up to offset that, then there is a huge fiscal crisis pending," the former U.S. central banker said via a video link to a business conference in Mexico City.

North Sea running dry says BP

Britain only has enough gas and oil left under the North Sea to last six years at current production rates, leaving us increasingly exposed to volatile supplies from Russia and the Middle East.

The UK saw one of the most precipitous output declines of any nation last year, exceeded only by Saudi Arabia and Norway, BP's Statistical Review of World Energy revealed. The biggest jumps were achieved by the United Arab Emirates and Russia.

Energy Links Jamboree - 04/27/07

Norwegian authorities fear steep crude decline

This is a direct quotation by Norwegian Oil Director Mr. Gunnar Berge from the Foreword to Facts - The Norwegian Petroleum Sector - 2007 (220-page PDF) published by the Norwegian Ministry of Petroleum and Energy on Friday, April w0:

Forecasts show that gas production is rising while oil production is declining. The number of exploration wells increased significantly in 2006 compared with the previous year, but only six new discoveries were made. These were made in four wellbores. This is figures for reflection [stet]. If we are to achieve the development that we want, with only a slow and gradual decline, serious efforts must be made in several areas.

Lower oil prices fail to hold back Exxon as quarter’s profits top $9bn

ExxonMobil shrugged off the impact of lower oil prices and boosted its profits in the first quarter of the year with a strong performance from its refining and chemical businesses.

The American oil group showed a clean pair of heels to BP, its British rival, by declaring profits of $9.28 billion (£4.66 billion) for the first three months of 2007, up by 10 per cent on the previous year.

Al Bartlett’s resources depletion protocol for a sustainable Australia

Professor Al Bartlett of Colorado University is well-known in sustainability circles for his contributions to the population debate and especially for his famous lecture, “Arithmetic, Population and Energy” which he has personally delivered over 1600 times (on average, about once a week for the last 30 years!). His message remains absolutely relevant today.

Address energy issue before oil is gone

With the most driving-heavy season approaching, increasing gas prices are at the forefront of most people's minds. Unfortunately, with our dependence on oil, there's nothing we will be able to do about it in the immediate future.

Why aren't we doing everything in our power to increase production of biodiesel and hydrogen fuel cell technologies? There are few things scarier than national leaders who lack the foresight to prepare for the inevitable.

Dueling rich men: Pickens, Forbes on oil

It was a typical oddball Milken conference matchup: longtime Texas oilman T. Boone Pickens sparring with magazine editor and former presidential candidate Steve Forbes in a lively debate on oil prices and energy policy.

The result in the packed Beverly Hills ballroom Tuesday? Horror — and amusement.

Pickens drew a mix of groans and quiet gasps with his prediction that U.S. oil prices would top last year's record high of $78.40 a barrel by year's end, and that consumers would feel the pain through sharply higher pump prices.

Non-Opec output ‘to peak by 2015’

Oil production outside Opec will keep rising until about 2015, while global output will continue to expand through 2025 at least, a top analyst at consultancy Wood Mackenzie said yesterday.

Countering doomsday “peak oil” theorists who believe global oil production may be reaching its limits, Wood Mackenzie said research based on its database of field-by-field global data showed supplies should keep expanding for at least 20 years.

Saudi Arabia likely to grow by 4% this year

Saudi Arabia's economy, the largest in the Arab world, may grow as much as four per cent this year, more than previously expected, on a possible rise in oil output, Samba Financial Group said yesterday.

Samba Chief Economist Brad Bourland said that he may revise his expectation for average Saudi Arabian oil production this year to 8.7 million barrels per day (bpd) from 8.6 million bpd. Saudi Arabia holds the world's largest crude oil reserves.

Mexico's state oil company requests massive investment

Mexico's state-run energy giant has requested some 33 billion U.S. dollars in investment to maintain its production after the sharp decline in a main oil field, according to a study published Tuesday.

Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex) is targeting a 3.1-million-barrels per day (bpd) production until 2009, something analysts describe as difficult without substantially larger investment than that currently planned.

Peak Oil Crisis: By Order of the Governor

Earlier this month, the Governor of Virginia issued what is sure to be one of many orders, laws and regulations mandating greater efficiency in the use of energy. Although justified in terms of saving taxpayer money, wise use of natural resources and reducing greenhouse gases, the order serves equally well as a preemptory strike against the consequences of peak oil.

Will Ethanol Provide Our Daily Bread Or Are We Toast?

There are many unanswered questions regarding the future of the energy industry and any answers you are likely to receive depend largely on who you ask. Ask a vegetarian or environmental campaigner how much oil is used to raise a beef steer and they will probably quote a figure in excess of 280 gallons while some beef farmers claim the real figure is around 14 gallons.

The Caspian: A zone of special interest

When back in the ‘90s the international community discovered the Caspian region’s enormous hidden wealth, US energy experts were quick to announce the region as the world’s third largest in energy resources.

In no time, the world energy map experienced a shakeup: A largely unknown energy reserve was drawn straight at the borders of Eurasia. It’s called the Caspian region.

Energy security for U.S. = insecurity for Canada

What would Canada do in a supply crunch during an Arctic cold front? We do not have enough pipeline capacity to bring Western oil to meet Eastern Canadian needs.

Pemex Says March Crude Output Falls 5% From Year Ago

Petroleos Mexicanos, the state-owned oil monopoly, said crude production fell 5 percent in March from a year earlier, the eighth straight monthly decline as the company depletes its largest oilfield, Cantarell.

Daily output was 3.18 million barrels last month, down from 3.35 million in March 2006 and higher than February's 3.15 million barrels, the Mexico City-based company said today in a report on its Web site.

OPEC Eyeing Oil Invest Review On Talk Of Oil Alternatives

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is eyeing a formal review that could eventually lead to less investment in exploring for future oil supplies because of endless discussion in consuming nations to reduce fossil fuel demand and fight global warming.

OPEC said in its monthly magazine published Thursday that trends in the U.S. and Europe toward the use of more renewable fuels like ethanol in road transport that are less polluting than oil had prompted discussions within the group.

WHAT GOES UP MUST COME DOWN. IT'S A CRUDE AWAKENING

Forget serial slashers, irradiated mutants, locked-room torturers, and psychopaths wielding any sharp, serrated disemboweler. The real pants-crapping, goose-pimpling, breath-stealing horror is the immediate future, coming straight down the road at us in bright daylight.

The Coming of Deindustrial Society: A Practical Response

With the coming of Peak Oil and the beginning of long-term, irreversible declines in the availability of fossil fuels (along with many other resources), modern industrial civilization faces a wrenching series of unwelcome transitions. This comes as a surprise only for those who haven't been paying attention. More than thirty years ago, the Club of Rome's epochal study The Limits to Growth pointed out that unless something was done, a global economy based on fantasies of perpetual growth would collide disastrously with the hard limits of a finite planet sometime in the early twenty-first century.

Energy Links Jamboree

Shrinking oilfields alarm observers

Almost a year ago, this column reported the conceivable implosion of Mexico's Cantarell Oilfield, second largest in the world. This prediction proved to be correct as Cantarell lost a fifth of its production from January 2006 through February 2007. This meant a loss of 400,000 daily barrels of production from this field, dropping from two million daily barrels to 1.6 million during this time period.

If this shrinkage continues as expected, Cantarell will be down to 1.2 million daily barrels by 2010, and a possible extinction within a few years thereafter.

We are running out of oil

Abraham is a businessman who lives in Blacksburg.

Tommy Denton in "U.S automakers still don't get it" (March 20) did a tremendous service to the readers in underscoring our impending energy crisis and how American automakers have cut their own throats by resisting regulated efficiency improvements. It's no coincidence that the makers of the most inefficient vehicles on the road are struggling.

Nevertheless, a couple of additional factors and conclusions are valuable to the discussion.

Preparing Your Portfolio For Peak Coal

Last week, we alerted you to a report from Germany's Energy Watch Group called “Coal: Resources and Future Production,” which predicts peak coal by 2025.

Readers of AltEnergyStocks are doubtless familiar with peak oil, the inevitable fact that as we consume a finite resource (oil reserves) at some point the rate of that consumption must peak, and taper off. Serious arguments about peak oil center around "when" oil production (and consumption) will peak, not "if."

CONSPIRACY: IF YOU'RE NOT IN ONE, YOU NEED TO START ONE

This past weekend I received a call from two friends who with their three children are facing foreclosure on their home. For the past three years I have been warning them about an impending housing bubble, but like many families, they never believed it could actually happen to them. At the beginning of the conversation they stated, “We’re calling you because everything you’ve said that would happen to the economy in the past three years has happened. So we want to know if you think the housing market will bounce back?”

Are We Currently in the Middle of a Commodities Super Cycle?

"Commodities get no respect" are the words that investment guru and Quantum Fund Co-founder Jim Rogers uses to begin his recently updated edition of Hot Commodities. With nickel and corn hitting record highs during the past few weeks -- and the Rogers International Commodity Index [RICI] up almost 20% just this year -- commodities are back in the headlines.

Over the past 10 years, Rogers has become the best known advocate of the "Commodities Super Cycle" theory. According to Rogers, the 20th century has seen three secular bull markets in commodities (1906-1923, 1933-1955, 1968-1982). Each of those secular bull markets has lasted a little more than 17 years. Rogers believes that we are currently smack dab in the middle of yet another secular bull market in commodities that began in 1999.

Does Rapid Decline in Mexican Oil Field Prove Peak Oil Theories?

We’ve covered stories in the past around “Peak Oil” theories and the potential impact on energy, transportation and other supply chain costs if such predictions are accurate (See Supply Chain Management and the End of Oil, Is Saudi Arabia Running Out of Oil? Giant Oil Find in Gulf of Mexico Offers Promise that There is Lot More Oil Out There).

Mexico's Important Cantarell Oil Field In Decline

I have written previously about Mexico's Cantarell oil field. In Thursday's Wall Street Journal, David Luhnow wrote an excellent article DYING GIANT: Mexico Tries to Save A Big, Fading Oil Field (subscription required) about the decline of the Cantarell oil field and its importance to the Mexican economy.

Gov´t strives to save oil field

In March 1971, a fisherman named Rudesindo Cantarell took a few geologists from state-run oil company Petróleos Mexicanos to this spot, where he had seen oil slicks. Cantarell didn´t know it, but he had stumbled across one of the largest offshore oil fields ever found.

A few decades and 12 billion barrels of oil later, the field that bears Cantarell´s name is dying, and Pemex, as the state-owned company is known, is struggling to stave off the field´s demise.

The missing link in Mexico's declining oil production

The missing link in Mexico's declining oil production

In a miraculous feat of journalistic legerdemain this morning, a lengthy, detailed front-page article in the Wall Street Journal reports on declining production at Mexico's giant Cantarell oil field, without once ever mentioning the words "peak oil."

Pemex revises reserve figures

The nation has proven reserves of 15.51 billion barrels of oil equivalent, enough to meet demand into 2016, state-run petroleum giant Pemex said Monday

The proven reserves are 955 million barrels less than reported in 2005.

Pemex reserves plunging

Petroleos Mexicanos, the third- biggest oil supplier to the U.S., said its reserves of oil and natural gas have dropped by half since 2002 because of a lack of investment, leaving the company in a "critical" situation.

Jesus Reyes Heroles, the chief executive officer of Pemex, said the Mexican government, Congress, workers and society need to come up with a new model for operating the company, which is state-owned, to reverse declining reserves and production. The company needs to be taxed less, provided more money for investment and given leeway to make decisions, he said.

The Mexican Peak Oil crisis: Lowest rate of oil output in 7 years

Sean Brodrick at Money and Markets writes that it appears Peak Oil has affected Mexico, as, “In December 2005, Mexico sent the U.S. 1.7 million barrels of oil per day (bpd). This past December, Mexico only exported 1.2 million bpd to the U.S.”

He asks, “Why is Mexico sending less oil?” For some reason, I thought that he was really asking a question, so I leap up and say, “Because they are selling it to China and India and everywhere else, but they don’t need the money, anyway, because my appetite for tacos is off the charts here lately, and they are making plenty of money that way! And speaking of tacos, that sounds good! Let’s break for lunch! Your turn to buy! Let’s go! Hup! Hup! Move it! Let’s go, go, go!”

Pemex faces mounting troubles

Depleted reserves, crumbling pipelines, outdated technology and billions of dollars in debt.

It doesn't seem much to celebrate. While Petroleos Mexicanos executives and union leaders prepare to deliver patriotic speeches and sing the national anthem at Sunday's 69th anniversary of the nationalization of Mexico's oil sector, energy experts say Pemex needs to stop looking backward.

Mexico's 69-Year-Old State Oil Firm Facing Threats to Its Stability

Depleted reserves, crumbling pipelines, outdated technology and billions of dollars in debt.

It doesn't seem much to celebrate. While Petroleos Mexicanos executives and union leaders prepare to deliver patriotic speeches and sing the national anthem Sunday on the 69th anniversary of the nationalization of Mexico's oil sector, many energy experts say Pemex needs to stop looking backward.

Output falling in oil-rich Mexico, and politics gets the blame

The KU-S oil production platform off the coast of Ciudad del Carmen, with its 10,000-ton tangle of yellow and red tanks and pipes, would seem the natural product of three years of record output and soaring energy prices. The newly installed platform certainly is the face that Mexico's state oil monopoly, Pemex, would like to show off.

The giant sucking sound, revisited

Remember the metaphorical “giant sucking sound” Ross Perot invoked in the 1992 presidential debates? Perot employed that image to characterize the rapid exodus of jobs to Mexico that would surely result from ratifying the North American Free Trade Agreement.
Fifteen years later, that vivid phrase could appropriately describe the increasingly desperate circumstances befalling Cantarell, Mexico’s largest oilfield, situated about 50 miles off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

Bush: Mexico needs investment in energy sector

President Bush urged Mexico on Wednesday to seek more investment to boost state-run oil monopoly Pemex's efforts to find oil in deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

Bush, due to visit Mexico next week, told the Reforma newspaper the country should permit extra investment that could accelerate crude oil production to meet growing global demand.

The Quiet Energy Crisis as Mexican Crude Oil production tumbles

Do you think gasoline prices are too high? Do you think illegal immigration is a problem? Well, get ready for more of both, because Mexico, the #3 supplier of imported fuel to the U.S., is spiraling into a quiet energy crisis that could interrupt our oil supplies, send shockwaves through our economy, and force a million or more Mexicans to migrate across our border.

Consider this: In December 2005, Mexico sent the U.S. 1.7 million barrels of oil per day (bpd). This past December, Mexico only exported 1.2 million bpd to the U.S.

Pemex 2007 capex to reach US$13.9bn - Mexico

Mexico's state oil company Pemex this year plans to spend US$13.9bn, company corporate finance director Esteban Levin Balcells said in a webcast highlighting 2006 financial results.

Of the total, US$12.3bn will go to E&P and US$1.4bn to refining, Levin said.

Mexico: Pemex 2006 revenues hit $98b

Officials at Mexico-based Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex) said that the company's sales revenues have soared to a record $98 billion in 2006 despite a decline in its oil production from Mexican Cantarell field, AP reported.

State-owned Pemex, which posted net profits of $3.94 billion in 2006, posted a 4 percent and 16 percent increases in its domestic and international sales respectively during the past year, according to the company officials, and benefited from soaring oil and gas prices during the year.

Pemex Expands Technology Agreement With Petrobras

Petroleos Mexicanos expanded a technology agreement with Brazil's Petroleo Brasileiro SA to help Mexico's state-owned oil company drill in deep water and manage heavy-crude fields, Mexican President Felipe Calderon said.

Deep-water crude represents the future for Mexico's oil industry, Calderon said today at the inauguration of a $250 million oil platform in the Gulf of Mexico. Pemex needs technology agreements with experienced companies to tap those deep-water deposits, he said.

Gas Prices Up 33 Cents In Past Month

Chris Hamilton doesn’t believe he’s being gouged at the gas pump.

"I don’t like to think of it that way," Hamilton, 54, of Lakewood, said. "I think the government should steadily increase gas prices and use the money to develop more fuel-efficient cars."

Hamilton will get at least part of his wish. Gas prices dropped below $2 a gallon in late January, but have risen over the past six weeks.

The Peak Oil Crisis: The 4 Facets of Peak Oil

Looming just over the horizon are four great storms that soon will have a major impact on nearly all the world’s peoples and their descendents for decades to come. We know these storms are coming, for we can clearly see their outlines and some are already beginning to feel the winds.

We don’t know the exact timing nor the order of these storms’ arrival. We do know that the order in which they come will be important to how these storms interact with what our lifestyles will be like in the years ahead.

Avian flu rears its ugly head again

Last month, several reports were released on various things that can end the world as we know it.

The big one, of course, was global warming. Meeting in Paris, the International Symposium of Climatologists released (Feb. 2) the direst study yet, saying that even if we immediately cease the burning of fossil fuels, the damage will continue unabated for several centuries. Their description of what to expect is ghastly and will, most probably, be much worse. “This is very conservative,” says Andrew Weaver, one of the authors. “Scientists by nature are skeptics.”

Pemex Reports Fourth-Quarter Loss as Sales Drop

Petroleos Mexicanos, Mexico's state- owned oil monopoly, reported a fourth-quarter loss as sales declined because of lower production.

Pemex, as the Mexico City company is known, had a loss of 6.9 billion pesos ($635 million) compared with a loss of 76 billion pesos a year earlier, according to a Mexican stock exchange report. Sales fell 11 percent to 236 billion pesos. Average daily output slid 6 percent to 3.1 million barrels.

THE GIANT SUCKING SOUND, REVISITED

Remember the metaphorical “giant sucking sound” that Ross Perot invoked in the 1992 presidential debates? Perot employed that image to characterize the rapid exodus of jobs to Mexico that would surely result from ratifying the North American Free Trade Agreement. Fifteen years later, that vivid phrase could appropriately describe the increasingly desperate circumstances befalling Cantarell, Mexico’s largest oilfield, situated about 50 miles off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

Mexico's top oil field declining fast - Pemex

Mexican state-run oil monopoly Pemex confirmed a gloomier forecast on Wednesday for fast-declining oil output at its aging Cantarell field, but said from now on it could keep total crude production steady.

Chief Executive Jesus Reyes Heroles said the company's official production estimate for Cantarell was for an average of 1.526 million barrels per day during 2007, down 15 percent from an average 1.788 million bpd last year.

Crude Oil Rises After Nigeria Announces Production Cutbacks

Crude oil in New York rose to the highest close this year after Nigeria, Africa's biggest oil producer, said it will comply with OPEC production cuts.

Nigeria, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' sixth-biggest producer, is set to cut output by 142,000 barrels a day under agreements reached in 2006. Occidental Petroleum Corp., the fourth-biggest U.S. oil company, said 120,000 barrels a day of output has been lost after a fire at its Elk Hills field in California. It's the seventh-largest field on the U.S. mainland.

Cantarell output declining fast, says Mexico

Mexican state-run oil monopoly Pemex confirmed a gloomier forecast yesterday for fast-declining oil output at its ageing Cantarell field, but said from now on it could keep total crude production steady.

Chief Executive Jesus Reyes Heroles said the company's official production estimate for Cantarell was for an average of 1.526 million barrels per day during 2007, down 15 per cent from an average 1.788 million bpd last year.

ZERO DEGREES OF DOLLAR SEPARATION

The last several months have provided a keen lesson in currency defense by a nation which has been written off in many circles as owning a dead and hopeless currency. Some key inter-related feedback loops have been on my radar, each vitally important and changing, which underscore in my viewpoint how major markets are inseparable, each inter-connected, and integrally important if the USDollar is to avoid a much deserved crash. A quip of mine at a conference one year ago centered on my claim that the USDollar was backed by the full force of the US Military. While true in some respect, the actual defense day to day entails a green triangle not to be confused by the iron triangle which fortifies the Pentagon funding, namely the US Congress, the defense contractors, and the lobbyists when grease the funding wheels. Complementing this death grip which has contributed over decades to do irreparable harm to the USDollar, the green triangle consists of holding down gold in a straight jacket, and holding down crude oil in a giant clamp. Never stated is its purpose to reinforce the USDollar from its implied inverse leverage device as hedge funds run for cover. The greenback and gold shine in opposite directions. The greenback and crude oil flow in opposite directions. Goldman Sachs has been at the controls on most of the master machinery.

Mexico's Pemex acknowledges Cantarell output fall

Mexican state-run oil monopoly Pemex acknowledged on Wednesday that output from its main oil field Cantarell was declining faster than previously thought.

Chief Executive Jesus Reyes Heroles said the company's official production estimate from Cantarell was for an average of 1.526 million barrels per day during 2007, down 15 percent from last year.

Mexico's No. 1 Oil Field to Yield Less

Mexican state-owned oil company Pemex expects its highest-producing oil field to yield 14.5 percent less this year than in 2006, the company's chief executive officer said Wednesday.

In his first news conference since taking the helm of Pemex in December, CEO Jesus Reyes Heroles said the company expects its Cantarell oil field to produce an average of 1.53 million barrels a day of crude oil in 2007, down from 1.79 million barrels a day in 2006.

Mexican Cantarell Oil Field in Decline: Prelude to a Larger Crash?

Mexico's Oil Output Cools
Slowing of Major Field May Pressure Prices,U.S. Import Diversity

Daily output at Mexico's biggest oil field tumbled by half a million barrels last year, according to figures released Friday by the Mexican government. The ongoing decline at the Cantarell field could pressure prices on the global oil market, complicate U.S. efforts to diversify its oil imports away from the Middle East, and threaten Mexico's financial stability.

The virtual collapse at Cantarell -- the world's second-biggest oil field in terms of output at the start of last year -- is unfolding much faster than projections from Mexico's state-run oil giant Petroleos Mexicanos, or Pemex. Cantarell's daily output fell to 1.5 million barrels in December compared to 1.99 million barrels in January, according to figures from the Mexican Energy Ministry.

Mexico's Oil Output Cools

Daily output at Mexico's biggest oil field tumbled by half a million barrels last year, according to figures released Friday by the Mexican government. The ongoing decline at the Cantarell field could pressure prices on the global oil market, complicate U.S. efforts to diversify its oil imports away from the Middle East, and threaten Mexico's financial stability.

The virtual collapse at Cantarell -- the world's second-biggest oil field in terms of output at the start of last year -- is unfolding much faster than projections from Mexico's state-run oil giant Petroleos Mexicanos, or Pemex. Cantarell's daily output ...

Is oil-rich Mexico spending too much?

The country saves little of its petroleum riches and spends lavishly on vanity projects. Analysts fear a day of reckoning as crude output falls.

Oil output slumps to six-year low

Crude oil production at state oil monopoly Petróleos Mexicanos, or Pemex, fell 6 percent to 2.98 million barrels a day in December from 3.16 million barrels daily in November, the company reported Monday

Mexico's December crude output falls 6 percent to 2.98 million barrels daily

Crude oil production at Mexican state oil monopoly Petroleos Mexicanos, or Pemex, fell 6 percent to 2.98 million barrels a day in December from 3.16 million barrels daily in November, the company reported Monday.

Pemex, one of the top foreign suppliers of crude to the U.S., said exports fell to 1.53 million barrels daily from 1.79 million barrels a day in November. The company said it was forced to postpone some shipments until January because poor weather conditions forced the closure of oil loading ports.