Rick Santelli: Rant of the Year

On CNBC

Cast Aways: A Thought Experiment

Here is a thought experiment:

Imagine an Island with population for 4 people: Frank Farmer, Charlie Chef, Mike Miner, Sam Smith.

Frank grows grains for all the other three, Charlie bakes and cooks for all the other three, Mike Mines Iron & coal, and Sam makes tools for all the other three. They sleep in caves and live their lives.

Frank saves some grains for that proverbial rainy day. Mike saves some coal and steel, just in case the mine collapses, or if he falls sick. Charlie pickles some vegetables and meat, just incase. Sam keeps few extra tools, just in case he becomes handicapped.

One fine day, Barry Bum washes up the shore of the Island. The islanders welcome Barry. They had an overdose of confidence. Out of the goodness of their heart, they feed Barry the first day. Barry promises that he will pay them back with interest. Next day, Barry eats another meal and gives them an IOU. All of a sudden, Charlie realizes that there is more demand for his cuisines, he starts to serv up his savings. He realize that he needs more utensils, which comes from Sam's savings. Sam suddenly realizes that he needs to replenish his savings, and demands more from Mike's savings. Charlie demands more grain from Frank and that starts to deplete Frank's savings. This goes on for some time as everybody keeps themselves busy. Barry in the mean time takes a vacation to a near by island for a couple of days and comes back ( Home equity extraction ). Once the savings gets depleted, people work harder and produce a little bit more than they used to, to feed the extra person Barry.

Then proverbial rainy day arrives; Charlie falls sick and decides to cash the IOUs he has recieved from Barry. However, Barry has nothing to pay his debts with and hence no way for Charlie to repay his own debts back to Frank or Sam. This causes Sam to realize that he has no way of paying Mike. A credit crunch takes shape. They also realized that there is no need to do the extra work to keep feeding the unproductive Barry. Suddenly Charlie stop producing for Barry, hence he demands less from Frank and Sam.

Ed Empircal Economist comes to the picture and says, there is a lack of confidence. Charlie needs to start feeding Barry as if nothing has happened. He says aggregate demand is going down. See all the idle tools now? Government needs to take over and put these "idle" resources to use.

The reality is, economy was consuming more than it was producing, thus depleting the savings. It was malinvested in unproductive activities. May be, just may be, all the tools and savings allocated to making baking utensils need to re-allocated to some productive activity. May be they need to make pull-carts to transport the produce and iron ore.

If you introduce money into this island's economy, nothing changes. When the farmer produces 100 island dollars worth of grains and produce, converts it to cash and save 10 island dollars, that savings exist as real goods in the economy. Same goes for Mike Miner, Charlie Chef, Sam Smith. When an entreprenuer borrows money to invest, he is actually creating claims against these savings of real resources and putting them to use.

Printing a bunch of money and throwing into the island is not going to make the savings re-appear overnight. The depleted savings have to be rebuilt.

Real life characters are unlikely to lend to Barry the bum to the point of their ruin. Which is the reason why Garry Government, takes away the risk by guaranteeing all the loans, implicitly or explicitly.

Republican "Laissez Faire" Legacy

Bush, the Federal Reserve and the Congress have spent the last 8 years following an aggressively liberal economic policy that makes anything attempted by Lyndon Johnson pale into insignificance.

For instance, the last 8 years has seen the following:
1)Massive increase in the welfare state through the establishment of a vast new entitlement program, the prescription drugs for seniors, as well as ongoing increases in spending for Medicaid and SCHIP. Health expenditures in the last 8 years have increased 85.6%, an increase of $327.1 billion.
2) Massive increase in Federal spending on Education, up 103.3%, an increase of $34.6 billion
3) Expansion of farm subsidies. Agriculture expenditures up 26.2%, an increase of $19.7 billion
4) Substantial increase in Federal spending on public housing and urban development. Housing and Urban development spending is up 69.8%, an increase of $21.5 billion.
5) Huge increase in spending on Transportation, which is up 65.1%, an increase of $27.1 billion.
6) Total Federal spending has increased 63.8%, an increase of $1.149 TRILLION per year.
Source: Federal Spending Pages 78 - 79
7)We’ve had a continuation of the “Affirmative action mortgage loan program” that was given teeth by the Clinton administration. Government-sponsored entities Freddie and Fannie have purchased trillions of dollars in questionable loans, while Congress assured us there was no risk from these agencies.
8) Along with the spending increases, the income tax system has gotten even more “progressive”. Despite some tax rate cuts, the upper income earners are paying more of the tax burden than ever before.
* The top 1% of income earners pay 39% of all income taxes, up from 37% when Bush took office.
* The top 25% of all income earners now pay 86% of all income taxes, up from 84% when Bush took office.
* Individual income tax collections are up 21.4% and corporate tax collections are up 66.6% since Bush took office.
Source: Tax Collections Page 31
9) Along with the spending and tax increases, government regulations have increased enormously. The Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) -- the master set of books containing all the federal regulations -- occupies 25 feet of shelf space at the library of Congress and has over 73,000 pages. It's pages of regulations -- which are double-columned, double-sided, fine print -- would stretch 4.5 miles if laid end to end.

Over 51,000 new regulations have been added since 1995, when Republicans took control of Congress. The Bush administration has added over 30,000 of these. So much for "Republican deregulation. Right now, some 50+ federal agencies, commissions, departments etc are working on finalizing over 3000 additional regulations.

Source: Competitive Enterprise Institute

These regulations are promulgated and pushed by regulators and bureaucrats from over 100 federal agencies and commissions, the most well-known of which include, besides the IRS, the FRB and FDIC, the EPA, FDA, SEC, CFTC, NLRB, FTC, FCC, FERC, FEMA, FAA, CAA, INS, OHSA, CPSC, NHTSA, EEOC, BATF, DEA, NIH, FNMA, FHA and the FLMA.

In addition to these economic regulatory agencies and their interference, we have a fiat money supply under the control of a central bank with virtually unlimited power to manipulate that currency as it sees fit. First Greenspan, and then Bernanke, piloted the Fed on a relentless course of expanding the money supply and credit.

And now that we are at the end of Bush’s administration, all the politicians in the halls of power want us to believe that because Bush has an “R” after his name, the last 8 years have been an orgy of “laissez-faire” “deregulation“, cutting of government services and spending, “tax cuts for the rich” and “tax cuts for big business”.

And what do they think we need to solve our problems? More government spending and more regulation!

Did I even mention the Billions that is being squandered in Iraq?

(HT to a commenter Michael Smith @ Cafe Hayek )

Cash Carry In the Hot Seat

Is he a chump? asks one congressman.

Tractors for Stockbrokers, Maseratis for Farmers

Says Jim Rogers...

Peter Schiff Interview On Glenn Beck Radio

Part I



Part II

RIP: Good Times

Silicon Valley has been trying to digest news of a secret meeting held by top venture firm Sequoia Capital earlier this week. At the meeting, leading Sequoia partners laid out bleak short and long-term scenarios for the world economy — and strong medicine for the firm’s portfolio companies.(HT: venture beat )

Sequoia Capital on startups and the economic downturn

View SlideShare presentation or Upload your own. (tags: depression recession)

Bloomberg: Morgan Stanley's Bonuses Get Saved By You and Me

Wall Street had it wrong: An investment bank's most precious asset isn't the army of employees who head down the elevators each day. It's the paychecks they take with them out the door.

You can imagine the devilish grins on the faces of Morgan Stanley employees last week, after the Treasury Department said it would pump $10 billion into the bank. Not only did we, the taxpayers, save their company, with the help of a Japanese bank named Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. More importantly, we funded their 2008 bonus pool.

( Click the subject line to read the whole article. )

Bail Out: What the Media didn't report

People protesting against the bail out. Why was this not reported in the MSM?

Peter Schiff versus Diane Swonk ( 06/13/06)

Why did Keynesians and Monetarists Get It All Wrong?

Bailout marks Karl Marx's comeback ( click to read the whole article )

In his Communist Manifesto, published in 1848, Karl Marx proposed 10 measures to be implemented after the proletariat takes power, with the aim of centralizing all instruments of production in the hands of the state. Proposal Number Five was to bring about the “centralization of credit in the banks of the state, by means of a national bank with state capital and an exclusive monopoly.”

If he were to rise from the dead today, Marx might be delighted to discover that most economists and financial commentators, including many who claim to favour the free market, agree with him.

Indeed, analysts at the Heritage and Cato Institute, and commentators in The Wall Street Journal and on this very page, have made declarations in favour of the massive “injection of liquidities” engineered by central banks in recent months, the government takeover of giant financial institutions, as well as the still stalled US$700-billion bailout package. Some of the same voices were calling for similar
interventions following the burst of the dot-com bubble in 2001.

“Whatever happened to the modern followers of my free-market opponents?” Marx would likely wonder.

Blast From The Past

Peter Schiff on Neil Cavuto:



All these fools, who didn't see the crisis coming, are claiming they can solve the problem with 700B. Not counting all the bad debt that the Fed has already accumulated already, this 700B will be just the start. THere is a commercial real estate collapse still ahead of us, So is it with all the Alt-A, Option-ARM and then prime mortages.

The guy with the long hair apparently is on monetarist/supply-side kool-aid and Mike Norman is a Keynes cultist.

Peter Schiff versus Art Laffer:


Here is another one - Debate with Art Laffer. "Libertarian" Art Laffer's expertise will be sought by the GOVERNMENT to "solve" the current crisis.

Art Laffer said Economy is working beautifully, because of good monetary policy, good economic policy, good trade policy etc. He and his supply-side statists have no right to blame democrats or the government for the current crisis. He quotes GOVERNMENT produced lies, damn lies and statistics to "buttress" his statements.

Fed Seize WAMU & Bail Out In Shambles

Bail Out In Shambles:

Plutocrats, by that I mean the punters on Wall Street and the plunderers in D.C. have underestimated the will of the general public. Protests are breaking out all over the country, especially in D.C. and on Wall Street. Congressmen and Senators have their phone lines, fax lines and email inundated with calls, faxes and emails from their constituents.

An email from Manhattan: "I just walked by the New York Stock Exchange. Hundreds of demonstrators have gathered to protest the government's bailout of Wall Street. Several were holding placards that read "Stop the bailout! Read The Road to Serfdom by FA Hayek. Read mises.org " They were also handing out copies of Ron Paul's 2003 speech introducing his bill to eliminate subsidies to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. ( from blog.mises.org/blog )

Republicans have grown cojones ( pardon my French ) and decided to not go along, at least for now. Even if that is just a political stunt, if it really works, there is still hope for the rest of us mere mortals.

WAMU No More:
In the mean time, in an instance of biggest retail banking collapse in history, the Feds have seized the operations of Washington Mutual. A deal has been struck to transfer most of the operations to JP Morgan Chase.

Your Daddy's Financial Crisis?

The best case scenario for a way out of the current mess, at least as this amateur sees it, is a 1970s style high inflation decade. If the bail out goes through, there is a real possibility of a currency collapse. America is addicted, not just to foreign oil, but to foreign credit.

If bank collapses cascade, that in itself is negative for confidence in the dollar. Shrinking government revenues at local, state and federal level is enough incentive to run the printing presses. When push comes to shove, some form of bail out will happen anyway. But 700 billion price tag is a staggering start, not counting all the bad paper that the Federal reserve has already accumulated.

In conclusion, daddy's Financial Crisis is the best possible scenario. Let's hope that it doesn't get any worse.

David Walker on CNBC

Click here to watch

Former Comptroller General of the U.S David Walker talks about future unfunded liabilities and peak oil.

David Walker on Fiscal Responsibility ( lack of it )

Credit Bubble Update - 08/11/07

Japanese Stocks Drop on Concern Subprime Losses Will Spread

Japanese stocks dropped, joining a global sell-off, after BNP Paribas SA halted withdrawals from funds that owned subprime loan-backed securities.

Declines by lenders and brokerages including Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. pushed the Topix index to an eight-month low. Exporters such as Canon Inc. declined on concern mortgage losses will lead to tighter lending conditions and slower global economic growth.


WaMu's shares decline on mortgage woes

Washington Mutual was among a group of U.S. mortgage companies whose stock fell Friday as demand for loans and sources of new money dried up.

The shares of Seattle-based Washington Mutual, the largest U.S. savings and loan, lost 81 cents, or 2.2 percent, to $35.95.

Shares of Countrywide Financial, the biggest U.S. mortgage lender, fell 2.8 percent, while MGIC, the No. 1 mortgage insurer, fell 13 percent.


German Prosecutors Probe Suspects Over IKB's Subprime Losses

German prosecutors opened a formal probe against several people in connection with IKB Deutsche Industriebank AG, the German lender facing a bailout over subprime mortgage losses.

The Dusseldorf prosecution office is investigating whether they may have breached their fiduciaries duties at IKB, Peter Lichtenberg, a spokesman for the office, said in an interview. He declined to identify the suspects or say how many people are under investigation.


Yen Heads for Weekly Gain Against Major Currencies on Credit

The yen headed for a weekly gain against the 16 most-traded currencies as widening credit-market losses prompted investors to unwind carry trades.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars and Norway's krone fell the most against the yen as traders paid back loans in Japan used to fund investments in higher-yielding assets elsewhere. The Bank of Japan joined central banks in Europe and the U.S. in providing cash to ease a credit crunch as a stream of news on subprime mortgage losses roiled the market.


Gold futures close with gains on safe-haven buying

Gold futures rallied Friday, as traders recognized the metal's allure as a safe haven amid worsening credit market troubles that prompted a fresh injection of cash by several central banks.

"Suddenly, the world is realizing that gold is still a safe haven asset," said James Moore, metals analyst at TheBullionDesk.com. "We've seen pretty substantial losses in equity markets."


Shares plunge after ECB pumps a record €95bn into markets

Shares slumped again on both sides of the Atlantic today after the European Central Bank was forced to inject a record 95 billion euros (£65 billion) into money markets as mounting global credit jitters sparked an abrupt scramble for cash by financial institutions.

The unprecedented emergency action by the Frankfurt-based ECB outstripped even the scale of its intervention on the day after the September 11, 2001, terrorist strikes on the US, when it pumped in 69 billion euros of liquidity to stabilise credit markets.


BNP Freeze Causes Carry Trades to Plunge and Central Banks to React in Liquidity Squeeze

There is no denying the fact that the subprime problems have now gone global. This morning, France’s largest bank, BNP Paribas SA announced that they were freezing withdrawals from three of their investments funds following the “complete evaporation of liquidity.” For BNP, this may not be a big deal because the three funds represent only 1.6 billion out of the 356 billion euros that they have under management, but for the rest of the world, this is huge.

Credit Bubble Update - 07/18/07

Dollar sinking against other currencies

The dollar is sinking to new lows against the currencies of the major U.S. trading partners — good news for multinational companies and investors in international funds, but not for U.S. tourists and importers.

The Federal Reserve's trade-weighted exchange index has hit its lowest point since the Fed created the index in 1973. The index reflects the dollar's value relative to the currencies of seven major U.S. trading partners.


U.S. tech trade deficit tops $102 billion in 2006; California still first in tech exports

The U.S. technology industry imported more computers, high-tech components and consumer electronics in 2006 than it exported, resulting in a record $102 billion (€74 billion) trade deficit in the sector, according to a new report due out Tuesday.

Total tech imports hit $322 billion (€233.66 billion) in 2006, up 9 percent from the prior year, according to the report from the tech industry's largest trade group, AeA. The U.S. imported more high-tech goods from China than any other nation.


Subprime weakness erodes higher-rated ABX indexes

Investor anxiety over the U.S. housing downturn is spreading to the highest-rated mortgage securities, upsetting the expectations of some that the crisis in the subprime bond market would be contained.

Weakening credit quality in the $575 billion U.S. subprime mortgage market is eroding the value of "AAA" securities, heightening anxiety among investors and raising the cost of insuring that debt against default.


Danger signals on road to global prosperity

The stand-off between Britain and France over the top job at the International Monetary Fund lifts the lid on how these things work. Alistair Darling was done up like a kipper by Nicolas Sarkozy, who united every EU country bar Britain behind the former French finance minister, Dominique Strauss-Kahn.

It goes without saying that Darling had right on his side. The idea that the Fund is a European fiefdom, with the MD chosen not through an open and transparent process but as a result of a deal cut in Brussels is indefensible. But there is a bigger issue at stake.


Foreclosure auctions go silent

100% mortgages leave little profit potential for flippers; more bad news for housing
On a late June afternoon, Laurence Kallen stepped to the podium in the Randolph Street office that serves as his cramped auction house. Mr. Kallen had 11 foreclosed Chicago properties to sell and 10 bidders in attendance. The auction lasted 10 minutes. He didn't get a single bid.

Credit Bubble Update - 07/13/07

Banks losing up to $52 bln over subprime
Credit Suisse analysts estimated banks could lose up to $52 billion over time due to their exposure to collateralized debt obligations that invested in U.S. subprime mortgages.

Most of the losses would stem from loans to hedge funds, compared with an expected $5 billion to $10 billion from banks' direct investment in subprime CDOs, the Credit Suisse analysts said in a report dated July 6.


1,300 arrested in Zimbabwe prices crackdown
More than 1,300 shop owners and business managers have been arrested in Zimbabwe as part of a crackdown on firms accused of flouting government-imposed price controls, police said Monday.

Most of the 1,328 bosses had been fined but the number also includes around two dozen company executives arrested since Friday who are due to appear before magistrates, said police spokesman Chief Superintendent Oliver Mandipaka.


Sarkozy's blitz puts paid to pact on policy

French President Nicolas Sarkozy threw down the gauntlet in Brussels last night, vowing to press ahead with his plans for a "fiscal shock" regardless of EU rules on budget policy.

Softening his tone slightly after a blizzard of criticism, he told eurozone finance ministers that his government would "aim" for a balanced budget by 2010, but refused to give real ground.


Bernanke: Anchored expectations mute price swings

Swings in volatile energy and food prices will have minimal impact on inflation as long as expectations of future price gains are held steady, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Tuesday.

"If inflation expectations are well anchored, changes in energy (and food) prices should have relatively little influence on 'core' inflation, that is, inflation excluding the prices of food and energy," Bernanke told the National Bureau of Economic Research.


Japan Should Diversify Reserves, Abe Adviser Ito Says

Japan, the largest overseas holder of U.S. Treasuries, should invest $700 billion of its currency reserves in higher-yielding assets such as stocks and corporate bonds, said Takatoshi Ito, an adviser to the prime minister.

The reserves should be managed by a special fund that will gradually diversify into euros, Australian dollars and emerging- market currencies, Ito said in an interview in Tokyo.


Russians Selling Off US Currency

The Central Bank of Russia says the amount of U.S. dollars held by individual citizens of this country is rapidly declining. The bank says Russians are also moving increasing sums abroad. Moscow correspondent Peter Fedynsky follows the money trail and reports that Russians are gaining confidence in their own economy.

New figures released by the Russian Central Bank indicate the amount of U.S. dollars held by private Russian citizens has dropped since 2002 from $35 billion to less than $12 billion as of July 1.

Australian hedge fund warns about withdrawals

An Australian hedge fund manager with $1bn in structured credits and junk-rated loans warned investors yesterday it could restrict withdrawals to ensure its survival as it reported losses of 14 per cent in one fund in June.

Basis Capital, based in Sydney, said in a letter to investors it had been hit by “indiscriminate” repricing of “otherwise fundamentally sound collateral” amid the crisis in US home loans to less creditworthy investors. It said it had deliberately avoided the worst-hit 2006 subprime loans.


Kuwait revalues as dollar weighs on Gulf currencies

Kuwait allowed its dinar to appreciate against the dollar for a second time this year after the US currency’s slide raised pressure on pegged exchange rates throughout the world’s biggest oil exporting region.

The dinar would trade at 0.28690 per dollar from Thursday, an appreciation of 0.4 percent, the central bank said, confirming expectations it would respond to the dollar’s tumble to record lows against the euro this week.


LBO Credit Quality Falls to Lowest in Nine Months

Loans used to finance leveraged buyouts are the riskiest in at least nine months on speculation that losses on subprime mortgage securities will spread to other markets, according to traders of credit-default swaps.

The iTraxx LevX Index of credit-default swaps on loans to 35 European companies fell as much as 1 percent to the lowest since the index started last October, according to Deutsche Bank AG prices. The LCDX index of loans to 100 U.S. companies dropped as much as 0.57 percent to 96, Phoenix Partners Group in New York said.


Dollar Slumps to Record Low Versus Euro as Retail Sales Drop

The dollar dropped to a record low against the euro and slumped versus the yen after a government report showed retail sales fell last month by more than analysts expected.

The data may add to concern that the U.S. economy will slow, lifting speculation the Federal Reserve will cut borrowing costs this year.


Retail sales drop worst in 2 years

Retail sales posted the biggest drop in nearly two years in June, the government reported Friday, fanning worries that consumers were starting to feel the pinch of higher gas prices and the slumping housing market.

"This report is a much weaker report than most analysts expected, and presumably it will come as a shock to people who bought retail stocks yesterday on the basis of [some] 'better' chain store numbers," Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist with High Frequency Economics, wrote in a note Friday.


Foreclosure activity rises dramatically

Foreclosures continued to rise throughout the country, the state and the Bay Area in June, according to a report to be released today. Nationally, 164,644 foreclosure notices were filed in June, up 87 percent from June of last year, said RealtyTrac.com, an online marketplace for foreclosure properties. In the Bay Area, the number of foreclosure notices was 5,018, almost triple the 1,780 in June 2006.


The greatest economic boom ever

Just how red-hot is the current worldwide expansion? "This is far and away the strongest global economy I've seen in my business lifetime," U.S. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson declared on a recent visit to Fortune's offices.

That may come as news to many Americans, whose boom-time memories are stuck in the 1990s, when Silicon Valley was the epicenter of our growth fantasies. But the fellow now occupying Paulson's old office at 85 Broad Street in downtown Manhattan shares that upbeat view. Just returned from a ribbon-cutting ceremony in the Middle East, Goldman Sachs (Charts, Fortune 500) CEO Lloyd Blankfein waves out toward the East River as he explains how the rise of the "BRICs" has altered his strategy and his travel schedule. (BRIC is an acronym Goldman coined in 2001 reflecting the rising economic power of Brazil, Russia, India, and China.)


U.S. trade deficit widens

The U.S. trade deficit widened to $60 billion in May as oil prices jumped and the volume of foreign oil coming into the country rose, the government said Thursday. But the overall trend still appears to be improving, economists said.

The Census Bureau said that the trade imbalance - the gap between what is imported and exported - grew 2.3 percent from April in seasonally adjusted terms. For the first five months of the year, however, the deficit grew at a slower pace than it did last year. From January through May, the deficit was $295.5 billion, compared with $317.8 billion in the first five months of 2006.


Moody's May Cut $5 Billion of Subprime-Backed CDOs

Moody's Investors Service may cut $5 billion of collateralized debt obligations after lowering the ratings of subprime mortgage bonds that make up the securities.

A downgrade would affect 184 pieces of 91 CDOs, representing about 3.6 percent of rated CDOs containing asset-backed securities, Moody's said in a statement today. Moody's yesterday sliced ratings on $5.2 billion of subprime bonds that back CDOs, which are also sliced into pieces to allow investors to choose how much risk they bear for the returns they receive.


D.R. Horton home sales plunge; expects loss

Home builder D.R. Horton said Tuesday declining home values would lead to its first quarterly loss since it listed on the New York Stock Exchange in 1995, sending its shares to a three-year low.

Hurt by the deteriorating U.S. housing market, the No. 1 U.S. home builder said net sales orders in its fiscal third quarter, ended June 30, fell 40 percent to 8,559 homes. The dollar value of the orders dropped 47 percent to $2.0 billion.


Zimbabwe: Inflation - the Endless Battle of the Zeros

WHEN Princess Nyathi retired to her rural home after a 20-year flirtation with a furniture shop, she was confident monthly payments in pension would be enough to buy the basic commodities.

But five years down the line, Nyathi is bitter after watching her monthly pension eroded heavily by inflation. "Six hundred dollars five years ago would buy you groceries, now with the $12 900 payment, you can only buy half a loaf of bread," she said.


Jeff Saut Presents: Subprime Sublime?

"Liquidity is a coward, when you need her most she runs away and hides.” That old market axiom has clearly stood the test of time. Most recently, the “liquidity cowardess” ran and hid from the subprime complex, causing the ABX-HE.BBB-Subprime Index to lose nearly 50% of its value. Concurrent with that price decline has been a sentiment slide, as reflected in The New York Times, whose reference to the subprime woes has seen a downward verbiage skein that has the glide path of a stone. To wit, “Largely contained,” “mostly contained,” “reasonably well-contained,” “severe but contained.” “Contained?” ... Well, maybe on a macro basis, but try telling that to investors in certain subprime-focused investment funds that have seen their principal erode and in some cases evaporate. Indeed, just a few weeks ago the Bear Stearns (BSC) “bombshell” brought the issue home to roost with the implosion of a couple of highly-leveraged subprime hedge funds. "

Credit Bubble Update - 07/08/07

A Mortgage-Securities Hedge Fund Suspends Payouts

In another sign that troubles in the mortgage market are spreading, a prominent hedge fund that specializes in bonds backed by home loans has suspended redemption requests by investors.

The Horizon ABS Fund managed by John Devaney, a well-known trader of asset-backed securities who is based in Florida, said yesterday that it made the decision to block withdrawals after one investor who accounted for about a quarter of its $650 million in assets sought to leave the fund.


Italease blow-up stokes derivatives fears

A derivative blow-up at the Italian bank Italease has sent tremors through Milan's banking fraternity and exposed the hidden dangers of exotic credit instruments.

The bank has paid off 610 million euros (£419m) in recent days to counter-parties in what amounts to a massive margin call after interest rate rises in Europe caused hedging and derivative losses by clients to mushroom out of control.


Newmont Eliminates Gold Hedges, Creating the World's Largest Unhedged Gold Company, and Announces Strategic Initiatives

Newmont Mining Corporation today announced the elimination of its entire 1.85 million ounce gold hedge position, establishing the Company as the world's largest unhedged gold producer. Newmont also announced plans to monetize components of its royalty and equity portfolio in the next twelve months, resulting in the discontinuation of the Company's Merchant Banking Segment as a separate business unit.


Berlin defends its 'crown jewels'

Germany is drawing up detailed plans to stop strategic assets falling into the hands of "giant locust funds" controlled by Russia, China and Middle East governments.

Finance minister Peer Steinbrück said "telecoms, banks, post, logistics and energy" were among the sectors that would be shielded from sovereign wealth funds, the new state trusts that are fast swamping global asset markets.


Canadian dollar hits high vs. greenback

The Canadian dollar climbed to a 30-year high against the U.S. currency Friday, bolstered by higher oil prices, a strong economy and a looming interest rate hike.

Canada's currency advanced as high as 95.53 U.S. cents Friday, pushing past the 95 U.S. cents mark for the first time since May 1977. It has risen 10.8 percent so far this year.


As 'China effect' reverses, inflation threatens

When the Prime Minister appears on television vowing to "get to grips with inflation", you know that a serious problem is taking shape.

Gordon Brown had the good fortune to be Chancellor over a golden decade as the industrial revolutions of China, India and emerging Asia supplied us ever cheaper manufactures.

In this miracle world, we have had 5pc global growth for five years - the best since the Second World War - without overheating.


Money falls from sky

A German motorist surprised by euro notes swirling in the air around her car hit the brakes and collected a "substantial amount of money" before turning it over to police, authorities in Worms said on Thursday.

A police spokesman in the small western town said the 24-year-old woman saw the money flying through the air in her rear view mirror late on Wednesday. She pulled over and tried to collect all the notes, unsuccessfully.


Subprime risks come home to roost for hedge funds

Bad bets revealed by some hedge funds in recent weeks may mean other funds will be forced to accept the market's deteriorating views on subprime mortgages and report their own losses soon.

Some managers have resisted accepting market views on their assets, claiming declines represent short-term market volatility and not underlying financial value in their subprime bonds, analysts said. Since the bonds trade infrequently, managers' have turned to pricing models that may ignore market sentiment, buoying prices.


Spain selling gold to cover up worsening trade deficit

In an interesting commentary entitled “The Gold of Spain’s Central Bank,” Gerardo del Caz debates the reasoning behind Spain’s massive gold sales, selling off 30% of its reserves (80 tonnes) in just two months. In March of 2004, Spain held eleventh place in the world’s ranking with 523 tonnes, but today has little more than 300 tonnes.


Subprime poor practice risks turning to malpractice

Regulators tread a fine line between the Keystone Cops – galumphing hopelessly after escaping criminals – and Captain Renault in Casablanca. The Financial Services Authority has put paid to the first criticism by warning intermediaries and subprime mortgage lenders before poor practice turns to malpractice. But given the subprime scandal unfolding in the US, the regulator can’t really be “shocked, shocked” to have uncovered market weaknesses.


LBO Loans May Follow Subprime Collapse, Moulton Says

Loans to fund leveraged buyouts may dry up just like subprime mortgages in the U.S., according to Jon Moulton, the British venture capitalist who tried and failed to buy the carmaker MG Rover.

``It's near the top. There are some difficulties beginning to emerge in the debt markets,'' Moulton, who runs the private equity firm Alchemy Partners, told a meeting of the U.K. Parliament's Treasury committee today. ``At some stage no one will be willing to underwrite fresh debt.''

Credit Bubble Hysteria - 07/02/07

S&P, Moody's Mask $200 Billion of Subprime Bond Risk

Standard & Poor's, Moody's Investors Service and Fitch Ratings are masking burgeoning losses in the market for subprime mortgage bonds by failing to cut the credit ratings on about $200 billion of securities backed by home loans.

The highest default rates on home loans in a decade have reduced prices of some bonds backed by mortgages to people with poor or limited credit by more than 50 cents on the dollar and forced New York-based Bear Stearns Cos. to offer $3.2 billion to bail out a money-losing hedge fund. Almost 65 percent of the bonds in indexes that track subprime mortgage debt don't meet the ratings criteria in place when they were sold, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.


Pound hits 26-year high against dollar

The pound today hit a new 26-year high against the dollar, lifted by expectations that the Bank of England will hike interest rates on Thursday, to 5.75 per cent.

Sterling hit $2.0160 in afternoon deals. The dollar was also weaker against the euro, falling to within half a cent of a record low against the shared currency.


Who's behind the global credit bubble?

The storm warnings are coming thick and fast.

The Telegraph business section this morning has a distinctly bearish tone - even by The Telegraph’s standards.

We’re certainly not ones to criticise - it’s refreshing to see the concerns we’ve been raising for a considerable length of time now getting a serious airing in the mainstream press.


India May Trade Gap Widens to $6.2 Billion on Imports

India's trade deficit widened in May from a year earlier as imports of machinery and other goods surged in an economy that's growing at the fastest pace in almost 20 years.

The trade deficit was $6.22 billion in May compared with $4.26 billion a year earlier, the Ministry of Commerce and Industry said in a statement in New Delhi today. Imports grew 26.4 percent, outpacing an 18.1 percent rise in exports. The trade deficit reached a record $7.1 billion in April.


Wall Street played role in creating subprime troubles

Some on Wall Street want to blame the little guy for the latest hedge-fund mess. People with shoddy credit histories couldn't pay their mortgages so that pushed some funds to the brink of collapse and sent shock waves through financial markets.

Talk about a cop-out — that shifts blame away from the Wall Street firms and banks that had a hand in creating the subprime-mortgage mess but aren't taking responsibility for it.


When will the credit bubble burst?

To understand why there’s a credit bubble, how it’s inflating the price of stocks and what it will mean for you when it bursts, let’s consider the acquisition of Avaya.

The large telecommunications equipment maker recently announced it is being acquired by two private-equity firms, Texas Pacific Group and Silver Lake Partners.


Subprime problems hit WaMu

The Chicago job market continues to be haunted by problems in the nation's subprime mortgage industry, even as federal regulators fashion guidelines they hope will improve conditions in the sector.

Washington Mutual Inc. has disclosed that it is closing a subprime mortgage office at One Pierce Place in Itasca, leaving more than 100 employees out of work, according to a filing this week with the Illinois Department of Commerce and Economic Opportunity.


Liquidity Nightmare... Drowning In Cash

In 2005, Stephen King, managing director of economics at HSBC and also a columnist for the Independent.uk news site stated that there was a crisis of faith among central bankers. Two years later, we can see why this confession should have read as: central bankers must stick to their pseudo-religious tones to proliferate public delusions of invincibility.


Zimbabwe: IMF Says Govt Inflation Figures Understated

THE International Monetary Fund (IMF) this week painted a bleak picture of Zimbabwe's economic crisis predicting that annual inflation will hit the five-digits mark by year-end.

The Bretton Woods institution in written responses to the Zimbabwe Independent on Wednesday said the country was now experiencing hyperinflation as its month-on-month rate had shot above 50%.


Inflation risks still skewed to the upside

US. Core inflation fell more quickly than anticipated so far thanks to lower owners’ equivalent rents and the markdowns for apparel. In the short term, it could even still slide into the Fed’s comfort zone. But the tight labor market, recordhigh energy prices as well as strongly rising import prices will lead to higher trend inflation again over the medium term (pages 4-6).


Move away from U.S. dollar reserves still all talk

Central bank holdings of U.S. dollars continue to mount, despite talk of diversification into other currencies, but questions remain about the sustainability of the rise in dollar reserves.

On Friday, the International Monetary Fund said global central banks' hit a new record in reserves held in U.S. dollars at $2.24 trillion in the first quarter, a 4.0 percent increase from the final quarter of 2006.


Rolling in gold but still poverty-stricken

IN 1865, Jamsetji Nusserwanji Tata - a one-time opium trader and scion of a sparkling line of Parsee priests, Zoroastrians who had fled to western India from persecution in Iran - attended a lecture in Manchester given by Thomas Carlyle.

Carlyle, a cantankerous Scot, was known for his historical and philosophical essays, but he also put his mind to the budding field of political economy.


Report: China raises minimum wages

China's government has ordered minimum wages raised to help the poor cope with soaring food costs, a state news agency reported Friday.

Chinese leaders have been alarmed by a spike in inflation that saw the price of eggs rise 37.1 percent in May from their price in the same month last year. Meat and poultry were 26.5 percent more expensive in May compared to a year ago.

Credit Bubble Update - 06/28/07

Stocks and Bond Bull Markets - The Beginning of the End?

LIKE the often-prophesied end of the world, major correction in global bond and equity markets is a long time in coming - so much so that many investors are tempted to think that it may never happen. But, as two of our eminent investment experts comment in the panel discussion below, the most dangerous words in the English language are: 'This time it is different.'


BANK OF INTERNATIONAL SETTLEMENTS WARNS OF GREAT DEPRESSION

The Bank for International Settlements, the world's most prestigious financial body, has warned that years of loose monetary policy has fuelled a dangerous credit bubble, leaving the global economy more vulnerable to another 1930s-style slump than generally understood.

Boston: State, top lenders will seek remedies to foreclosure woes
State officials and executives from leading mortgage lenders are expected to meet today to discuss possible remedies to Massachusetts' wave of foreclosures.

The meeting was called by Dan O'Connell , the Patrick administration's secretary of housing and economic development , who wrote a letter asking the chief executives of the top 10 mortgage lenders in the state to attend, according to a person who has seen the letter but asked not to be identified. The letter did not spell out an agenda for the session, to be held at in the offices of Daniel Crane , director of the Office of Consumer Affairs and Business Regulation.

Subprime woes led to 50 lender failures: MBA

Nearly 50 mortgage lenders have folded due to the subprime crisis as part of a natural thinning of the industry, the leading trade association for those lenders said on Wednesday.

"About 50 (lenders) have suffered the consequences and many of those would have been our members," said John Robbins, chairman of the Mortgage Bankers Association, addressing the Reuters Global Real Estate Summit via teleconference from Washington.

Axed deals reflect subprime chill

Companies are pulling financing deals across the globe, in one of the clearest signs yet that investors’ worries about rising interest rates and US subprime mortgages could be infecting other areas of the credit world and driving up the cost of corporate borrowing.

MISC, the world’s biggest owner of liquefied gas tankers, day shelved its $750m bond offering.

Opaque Derivatives, Transparent Fed, `Bubblenomics': Timshel

The most stunning aspect of the demise of two hedge funds belonging to Bear Stearns Cos. is the almost total absence of transparency surrounding the bailout.

The debacle may finally provoke regulators, who have long suspected that buying derivatives is akin to running through a fireworks factory with a lighted blowtorch in each hand.

Carry trade threatens a deflationary global collapse

Concerns that the credit cycle may be turning down are growing. But so far, the impact on stock markets has been fairly limited.

Investors take comfort in three misguided beliefs. They believe that equities are not expensive and that there is no sign of any diminution in the flood of global "liquidity". Furthermore, they believe that if the worst happens, the US Federal Reserve will come to the rescue.

Banks 'set to call in a swathe of loans'

The United States faces a severe credit crunch as mounting losses on risky forms of debt catch up with the banks and force them to curb lending and call in existing loans, according to a report by Lombard Street Research.

The group said the fast-moving crisis at two Bear Stearns hedge funds had exposed the underlying rot in the US sub-prime mortgage market, and the vast nexus of collateralised debt obligations known as CDOs.

Debt, Deficits, Derivatives & Delusions - 06/17/07

China's trade surplus surges 73 percent

Just last month, China announced plans to buy $4.3 billion of U.S. technology as a way to show how serious it is about reducing the ballooning trade gap with the U.S.

So it must have come as a mixed blessing in Beijing to see that China's antigravity trade surplus soared again in May to the third-highest monthly level on record, according to government figures released Monday.

China's Chinalco to buy Peru Copper

Peru Copper Inc. said Monday it's agreed to a $792 million acquisition by government-owned mining giant Aluminum Corp. of China in a deal that takes out one of the few remaining independent copper-mining companies.

Vancouver-based Peru Copper, which has an agreement to develop copper deposits in the South American country's Toromocho project, said it has received a friendly takeover bid valuing the company at $6.22 a share (C$6.60) in cash.

BIS cautions over surge in takeover debt

The Bank for International Settlements has warned that the current takeover boom across the world is being funded by ever greater levels of debt, storing up trouble should rising inflation lead to a sharp rise in interest rates.

The bank's quarterly report, released today, said merger and acquisition activity had reached an unprecedented $1,100bn (£560bn) in the US over the first five months of this year, and $1,000bn in Europe.

Greenspan not worried Chinese will dump Treasuries

There is little reason to fear a wholesale pullout by China out of U.S. government bonds, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Tuesday.

While expressing concerns about China's runaway growth rate and what he described as overvalued stocks, Greenspan played down the prospect that Chinese authorities would sell Treasuries in earnest, forcing a sharp spike in U.S. interest rates.

Conspiracy or coincidence?

A bad day for stocks - and for gold, which closed Tuesday in New York at $647.10, down over $7 on the day and sharply down from its April lunge at the $700 level.

First a proprietary word: The Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index, which represents the average gold market exposure among a subset of short-term gold-timing newsletters, stood at a reading of 21.4% on Tuesday night. That's not dramatically low - gold exposure can go well into negative territory. But it's a change from the over-enthusiasm (50%) that Mark Hulbert thought gold-timers were displaying earlier this month, when gold reached $671 See June 5 column

Bulls brave inflation and Zimbabwe's political turmoil

Notwithstanding the world's highest inflation rate - by far - and the world's fastest-contracting economy, the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange is booming, with share prices trebling in real terms in just 22 weeks.

Earnings and growth fundamentals cannot begin to explain the 4,500 per cent surge in the ZSE Industrials index since December 2006. Instead, analysts cite three main influences - the market is drowning in liquidity as the central bank prints money at a breakneck pace; the Zimbabwe dollar has collapsed in the parallel (unofficial) market from Z$2,900 to the US dollar at the start of the year to between Z$75,000 and Z$100,000 today, and the ZSE is more casino than market as investors throw increasingly worthless Zimbabwe dollars into penny stocks.

Swiss sales dash hopes of gold recovery

Switzerland's central bank is to sell a further 250 tonnes of gold, dashing hopes for a revival in depressed bullion prices after months of heavy selling by Spain and Belgium.

"This is quite significant, if you think that Britain's entire sales were 400 tonnes", said Ross Norman, director of the TheBullionDesk.com.

Markets could cope with doubling of US deficit

Global capital markets would be able to finance a near-doubling of the US current account deficit to $1,600bn a year by 2012, a McKinsey study published on Friday argues.

The study, by McKinsey Global Institute, breaks new ground in analysing the sources of funding for the deficit, and what a large dollar depreciation would mean for different industries and US trading partners.

Yields May Not Be A Threat Yet

With the rising yield of the 10-year Treasury note spooking the markets, it may be worth a historical look vs. the S&P 500. The chart (1962-2007) does show several periods where spikes in the 10-year yield coincided with corrections in the S&P 500 (see the thin black vertical lines). However, the vast majority of the 1982–2000 bull market in U.S. stocks took place during a period where the yield on the 10-year was higher than present level of 5.22% (see green box).

Debt, Deficits, Derivatives & Delusions - 06/11/07

Spain Shifting Reserve Assets To Bonds From Gold - Fin Min

The Bank of Spain's recent gold sales are part of a strategy to shift its reserves into more profitable fixed-income instruments, Spanish Finance Minister Pedro Solbes said Wednesday.

"What we aim to do is to sell gold, an unprofitable asset, to reinvest in bonds, which are more profitable," a Solbes spokeswoman quoted the minister as saying in answer to a question about the gold sales in a Senate hearing.

I'VE GOT A HOT TIP FOR THE FINANCIAL PRESS

The Labor Department over-estimated job growth again.

Last Friday the department reported that 157,000 new jobs were created in May.

That was considerably higher than the 140,000 that the "experts" had been expecting.

China may want BHP

BHP Billiton could be in the sights of a new $237 billion Chinese state-owned investment fund, according to Bell Potter research chief Peter Quinton.

The new Chinese State Investment Company was established last month to manage part of China's foreign investment reserves and made its debut on the world stage with a $US3 billion investment in private equity firm Blackstone.

LME intervenes in nickel market

The London Metal Exchange has intervened in the nickel market amid suspected collusion at a time of soaring prices and critically low stock levels.

“The LME has detected collusive behaviour in nickel trading and acted to tighten the lending guidelines for the metal significantly,” said John Kemp, analyst at Sempra Metals.

Putin wants new economic "architecture"

President Vladimir Putin sought to reassure investors and foreign leaders that Russia remained committed to free trade and investment for businesses that work here, in spite of a chill in political relations with the West.

But Putin said Russia would integrate with the world economy on its own terms - and possibly not by embracing the current rules of the global economic order.

OTC derivatives to reach USD550trn by 2008, says Celent

Over-the-counter derivatives will exceed the USD550trn mark in 2008, up from USD375trn at the end of 2006, according to a new report from Celent, a research and consulting firm that focuses on the application of information technology in the global financial services industry.

Growing OTC derivatives trading volume, escalating exposure to OTC derivatives and structured deals, the increased complexity of products and lack of trade automation have increased the importance of accurate valuation, according to the report, entitled Risk and Pricing Analytics: Addressing Valuation Challenges in OTC and Structured Products.

The subprime barn door

HOME FORECLOSURES are on the rise, and lenders specializing in subprime mortgages -- that is, loans for homebuyers with blemished credit -- have been evaporating left and right. At long last, lawmakers and regulators have taken an interest in this untidy corner of the mortgage market, and financial-services trade groups are getting in on the act, too, recently issuing a joint statement offering their response to the mess.

Narrowing U.S. trade deficit may lift economic growth

The U.S. trade imbalance with the rest of the world narrowed slightly in April, providing a tentative sign that less-lopsided trade could help lift the economy this year.

With economic growth expected to be only about two-thirds the pace of last year, trade could be an important factor in keeping the economy from stalling, economists said. Growth has slowed in the United States, but economies in Asia and Europe are surging and consuming more and more American exports.

Debt, Deficits, Derivatives & Delusions - 06/05/07

Foreclosure Forecast To Top 2 Million Homes

Foreclosures will top 2 million homes in the wake of the nation's worst real estate crisis since the U.S. Savings and Loan scandal, according to the Housing Predictor forecast.

Gold matches two-week highs

Gold steadied on Monday after matching the previous session’s two-week highs, and analysts said the metal was likely to trade in a range in the near term.

Silver matched Friday’s five-week peak, while platinum and palladium rose to their highest levels in nearly two weeks before easing.

India trade deficit near double on crude costs

India’s trade deficit nearly doubled in April, the first month of the financial year, from a year ago as costs for imported oil jumped, the government said in a statement yesterday.

CBOT to launch credit default swap futures

The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) on Thursday said it plans to launch exchange-traded futures contracts on credit default swaps, in an effort to increase liquidity and transparency in the burgeoning credit derivative market.

Banks sell risky portions of CDOs to public pension funds

U.S. securities companies are hawking the riskiest portions of collateralized debt obligations to public pension funds.

At a sales presentation by Bear Stearns to 50 public pension fund managers in a Las Vegas hotel ballroom, Jean Fleischhacker, a Bear Stearns senior managing director, told fund managers they could get a 20 percent annual return from the bottom level of a collateralized debt obligation, or CDO.

Forcing fast RMB rise will be lose-lose situation

Clutching at yuan revaluation like a magic bullet, the U.S. continues to press China for a major appreciation of the renminbi to narrow the U.S. trade deficit with China.

The renminbi was a focus of the second round of the China-U.S. Strategic Economic Dialogue (SED) in Washington last month.

Foreclosures and subprime crisis still a threat to U.S. economy

Foreclosure filings in the United States were up 62 percent in April of 2007 from the previous year according to an Irvine, California-based RealtyTrac. This glum news was somewhat tempered by the fact that foreclosure activity dipped from March of 2007 by about 1 percent.

Statistics from RealtyTrac showed almost 148,000 filings in March such as default notices, auction sale notices, and bank repossessions. Slowdowns or declines in home values and problems with so-called subprime loans made to borrowers with shaky credit histories are widely credited with fueling the housing slump.

Japanese Interest Rates, China-US Dollar Peg Ensure Cheap Credit Flood

What is really going in the stock market? Is it a melt-up or the prelude to a melt down, or both? While Woolworths (ASX:WOW) pursues Coles (ASX:CGJ) and James Packer retreats from the media business and rushes into the gambling, business, we take a quick step back this Monday to take in the whole freakin’ financial circus.

Debt, Deficits, Derivatives & Delusions - 06/01/07

ATI Funding Says Dollar's Free Fall Creates Once in a Lifetime Opportunity for Overseas Countries

ATI Funding is able to finance foreign companies as well as foreign governments on equipment and construction loans originating from the USA without collateral up to 100% Financing . ATI Funding's new program will also finance US companies exporting US products at rates and conditions never seen before.

SHINE A LIGHT ON THE PLUNGE PROTECTION TEAM

Dear John: Although I admire your quest to get information on the Plunge Protection Team, I'm not sure why you are doing so. Seems to me, if you consider it OK - in the public interest, as you say, - for the PPT to intervene in some emergencies, then you essentially consider it OK to intervene at all times.

Because who determines what a real emergency is? Where do you draw the line? You either believe in a free market or you don't. I.G.

J.P. Morgan Settles Copper Lawsuit

J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. has settled a long-running antitrust lawsuit filed by copper companies who claimed the bank's predecessor conspired with a Japanese trading house to manipulate the copper market in the 1990s.

A trial had been scheduled to begin Tuesday in federal court in Madison but court officials said the companies settled late Friday. The details of the settlement are confidential.

Bill seeks new US approach to currency battles

Senate leaders are close to finalising legislation that they hope will lead to a reversal of long-standing US policy of opposing intervention in currency markets, according to people familiar with the matter.

The Senate bill is to be introduced in the next month and will put pressure on the US Treasury to intervene in global markets if currencies become fundamentally “misaligned”, people invol­ved in the process said.

Italians claim country run by Goldman Sachs

Italians grumble that Goldman Sachs runs their country, much as the Jesuits ran countries during the Counter-Reformation.

Premier Romano Prodi is an ex-Goldman Sachs man, as is central bank president Mario Draghi and the deputy treasury chief Massimo Tononi.

Funds attack banks’ aid for subprime borrowers

Hedge funds are attacking bank decisions that help delinquent US mortgage borrowers remain in their homes in a move that pits some of the country’s richest people against its least well-off.

The dispute centres on derivatives contracts that pay money to investors when bonds backed by subprime mortgage loans – extended to people with past credit problems – run into trouble. The $1,200bn (€890bn) US subprime mortgage bond market has been hit recently by rapidly growing defaults, and hedge funds have profited from the crisis by buying such derivatives.

Banks are lending to private equity at below the interest rate

UK banks are taking the unprecedented step of lending to the private equity and hedge fund sector at below the official UK interest rate.

Experts said it was a sign of City institutions' growing desperation to buy into the booming alternative investments market.

U.S. Bank Loan Risk Falls on First Day of Derivatives Index

A credit-default swap index based on the U.S. high-yield, high-risk loan market rose in its first day of trading as hedge funds and other investors used the contracts to bet on the ability of companies to repay their bank loans.

The LCDX index rose 0.63 to 100.63 as of 4 p.m. in New York, according to London-based Markit Group Ltd., the index administrator. An increase in the index suggests improvement in the perception of credit quality; a decrease signals the opposite.

More home owners are struggling to make house payments

Dawn and Scott Hentschel came within a sliver of losing their home after Scott, a construction worker, was laid off two months earlier than usual last fall.

The couple saw a legal notice in the newspaper and then a note in the mail that said their bank planned to foreclose on the two-bedroom, ranch-style house they bought two years ago.

Foreclosures still raging in Chicago area

Chicago-area foreclosures, which set a record last year, are projected to reach full-blown crisis levels in 2007.

Cook County is on pace to record at least 30,000 and as many as 36,000 foreclosure filings this year, according to Cook County Circuit Court Judge Dorothy Kinnaird, who presides over the Chancery Division, which handles foreclosures. That would mean a 35% to 62% increase from 2006, when 22,248 filings were easily the highest in county history after having risen 36% from the previous year. (The court combines both commercial and home foreclosures, but residential mortgages comprise the vast majority of its cases.)

Subprime loan crisis is hitting Vallejo hard

Vallejo is the Bay Area's version of ground zero for the subprime loan crisis.

A significant number of residents of the largely blue-collar city of 120,000 have taken out subprime loans -- expensive mortgages issued to people with poor credit.

Venezuela Local Debt Tumbles as Protests Extend to Fifth Day

Venezuelan government debt tumbled in local markets as people took to the streets for a fifth day to protest President Hugo Chavez's decision to pull the country's most-watched television network off the air.

Concern that protests will turn violent again led investors to sell dollar- and bolivar-denominated bonds in the local market and move money out of the country, traders said. Police have detained 182 people since May 27, the day that Chavez let the concession granted to Radio Caracas Television expire, Interior Minister Pedro Carreno said last night.

U.S: Subprime Fallout - How Significant is it for Credit Markets?

In a recent speech, Fed Chairman Bernanke made the point that the impact of subprime lending on the credit markets was not significant. This is a welcome note in contrast to many commentators that portray the world in black and white. Subprime lending is having an impact but not the disaster some commentators assert.

Subprime: Correction or Calamity?
How may we gauge the significance of the subprime correction? First, the ABX bond index (top graph) dropped precipitously from 93 in early January to 63 in late February but recently has moved back up to the 76 level. This suggests that the value of these subprime instruments has declined but that the decline is limited and not building momentum towards a total collapse.

Debt, Deficits, Derivatives & Delusions - 05/21/07

Yen on record low against euro

The yen hit a record low against the euro on Monday, with sellers of the low-yielding currency encouraged by regional stock markets' calm reaction to China's surprise move to widen the yuan's trading band and raise interest rates.

Group of Eight finance ministers avoided discussing the yen's weakness at a weekend meeting, which market players also took as a green light to push up high-yielding currencies.

S.Korea's trade deficit with Japan rises to 10 bln USD in first four months this year

South Korea's trade deficit with Japan rises to 10.06 billion U.S. dollars in the first four months of this year, compared with 8.35 billion U.S. dollars during the same period of 2006, said a report of the Korea International Trade Association (KITA) on Monday.

The housing bubble's silver lining

THE ONCE-buoyant housing market is clearly in trouble. Last year, housing prices around the country fell for the first year since the Depression. In Southern California, one of the epicenters of the housing and housing-credit bubble, the pain has been acute. Local subprime lenders such as Ownit Mortgage Solutions in Agoura Hills and New Century Financial in Irvine have filed for bankruptcy protection. MortgageDaily.com estimated that 12,000 mortgage jobs have been cut in California since January 2006. Foreclosure rates are rising.

Saudi Arabia's gold demand up 7 per cent

Gold demand in Saudi Arabia was up by 7 per cent in the first quarter (Q1) of 2007 as against the same period last year and further increase is expected due to customs tariff reduction, according to the report issued by the regional office of the World Gold Council (WGC) on gold demand in the Middle East, the Gulf region and worldwide.

The Trade Deficit and Foreign Confidence in the U.S. Economy

If foreigners lose confidence in the U.S. economy and are less willing to hold dollar denominated assets, the supply of dollars in the global banking system will exceed demand and the exchange value of the dollar will fall...

Debt, Deficits, Derivatives & Delusions - 05/10/07

Zimbabwe: Country Reaches Official Hyperinflation Level

Official silence on Zimbabwe's latest inflation figures is being ascribed by Harare-based investment professionals to the authorities' embarrassment that the internationally accepted hyperinflation level has now been reached.

What is the real solution to America's trade deficit?
The US Congress seems more determined than ever to tighten the noose on China. The issue is trade policy – and the legislative response to America’s outsize bilateral trade deficit with China. The way things look today, bipartisan support for such efforts is deep enough to assure veto-proof passage of tough trade sanctions on a broad array of Chinese products shipped to the US. I continue to believe this could be a policy blunder of monumental proportions. By going after China, the US Congress is playing with fire.

Bank of America's Lewis Calls for Lending `Sanity'

Bank of America Corp. Chief Executive Officer Ken Lewis said a so-called credit bubble is about to break after six years of historically low interest rates and relaxed lending criteria.

``We are close to a time when we'll look back and say we did some stupid things,'' Lewis said, speaking at a lunch at the Swiss-American Chamber of Commerce in Zurich. ``We need a little more sanity in a period in which everyone feels invincible and thinks this is different.''

MONEY! MOOLA! CREDIT! CASH!

"Sarkozy must have won the elections," Elizabeth deduced.

Americans, meanwhile, are nowhere near elections, yet there too the politicians are hogging time on the big screen. People can't seem to take their eyes off of it - except to tune in to the Dow, of course, which hit yet another high on Friday.

Buffett On Derivatives: 'A Fool's Game'

Warren Buffett, the billionaire investor and long-time chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A), is a man who speaks his mind. I'm not sure whether he's always been that way, or whether it is his exceptional wealth or his age -- or both -- that emboldens him to cut through Wall Street B.S. like a hot knife and expose the bloody truth about the foibles of modern finance.

Moneybox's Gross Goes Counterintuitive, Claims Bubbles Are Good

Every asset bubble leaves a new collection of bubble literature in its wake.

Some of the books go on to become classics: John Kenneth Galbraith's ``The Great Crash,'' for example. Others (``Dow 36,000'') are remembered for their curiosity value. Still others are just plain curious, as in, what was the author thinking?

The IRS, Amero And The Battleground For Liberty

"Taxation follows public debt, and in its train wretchedness and oppression." Thomas Jefferson to Samuel Kerchival, Monticello, 1816

I have been deluged with requests to cover IRS indictments or injunctions filed against individuals, i.e., last month the U.S. Department of Justice moved against Bob Schulz and his We the People Foundation; see court filing here. [Go to www.newswithviews.com to read from the original article, All the links from this article.] Many wonder why I didn't do my annual April 15th slave day column. So many wonder what has happened to the "tax movement." The IRS is systematically picking off individuals who fully understand the fraud being perpetrated against the American people and shipping them off to jail. Wonderful, decent Americans like Dr. Tom Clayton, is now serving a prison sentence because we have a federal judicial system that is so rotten, it shames the stench of rancid meat. Those who haven't done a lick of real research will shrug off that comment because ignorance is bliss and it's easier just to get down on your knees and welcome the chains of bondage and slavery than to stand up and fight for what's right. Reminds me of the theme song from an old western, "Rolling' rollin' rollin' Keep them cattle going. Raw-hide."

Living with derivatives: Riskier financial systems

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its latest Annual Policy Statement has finally given the green signal for the introduction of credit derivative swaps, a kind of credit derivative instrument.

Ironically, the move comes just as there is renewed debate worldwide among regulators about the implications of the rapid growth of derivatives for the safety of the financial system. So how should the central bank proceed? Are there any takeaways, any research findings RBI could keep in mind as we enter what has so far been virtually uncharted territory?

Asia's real worry could be falling dollar

Although Asian finance ministers have just agreed on a new contingency measure to defend their currencies, their real concerns appear to be a plunge in the US dollar rather than a rise in their own units.

Debt, Deficit, Derivatives & Delusions - 05/04/07(Update 1)

Derivatives hint at weak April job growth

Investors believe the U.S. economy generated around 88,900 new jobs in April, according to the results of a derivatives auction.

Such a rise was smaller than that generally expected by Wall Street forecasters, who are looking for a somewhat larger 100,000 increase.

Paulson repeats China must let currency value rise

US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said on Thursday that China should quickly let its currency rise in value and let market forces play a greater role in recognition of its own economic might.

"It is quite important that their currency appreciate more rapidly," Paulson told several hundred students at Harvard University as he continued a series of discussions about the importance of keeping US-Chinese relations on an even keel.

India's trade deficit widens despite upward revision of export figures

India's trade deficit widened 40.5 per cent in the fiscal year ended March 31, this year to $56.74 billion despite an upward revision in export data for the April-February 2006-07 period.

While announcing the March 2007 foreign trade data, the commerce ministry has announced an upward revision of export data for April-February 2006-07 by about $3 billion.

Dick Cheney's Banker Grantham Sees World Bubble: William Pesek

You'd expect someone whom the famously dour Dick Cheney entrusts with millions of his dollars might have a gloomy view of the world. Jeremy Grantham does indeed.

``From Indian antiquities to modern Chinese art; from land in Panama to Mayfair; from forestry, infrastructure and the junkiest bonds to mundane blue chips -- it's bubble time,'' he writes in Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co.'s latest quarterly letter titled ``The First Truly Global Bubble.''

U.S. Dollar Declining, Global Community Rising

Martin Weiss, Ph.D. examines the declining value of the dollar and how it directly affects the U.S. economy as well as the global community. In this issue of Money and Markets, Dr. Weiss discusses the plunge in the dollar verses the rising values of foreign currencies as well as the affects the dollar is having on the U.S. Housing industry.

According to Weiss, the U.S. dollar is sinking. No one is able to come to the rescue. Investors who fail to take protective action could get hurt badly. And those that act promptly stand to make some of the greatest fortunes in recent memory.

THE WORLD’S GREATEST UNREPORTED HYPERINFLATION

Zimbabwe has entered the hell of hyperinflation. Indeed, inflation in March rose by well over the 50% monthly threshold for qualifying as hyperinflation. The reporting of Zimbabwe’s travails invariably includes the standard reference to Weimar Germany’s 1922-23 hyperinflation, in which the monthly inflation rate peaked at 32,400%. The choice of this Weimar reference is somewhat curious. After all, the world’s greatest monthly hyperinflation rate was recorded in Hungary in July 1946, and it was 12 orders of magnitude greater than that of the peak month of the Weimar hyperinflation. As is the case with much economic and financial data, the Hungarian record has simply tumbled down what George Orwell called a “memory hole.”

Indian trade deficit nears US$57b as oil imports soar

India's trade deficit widened to nearly US$57 billion in the year ended March as a surge in the cost of imports led by oil offset a record year for exports, government data showed Tuesday.

Exports rose 23.9 percent to a record US$124.6 billion, in line with a target of US$125 billion for the year, while imports jumped 29.3 percent to US$181.4 billion led by oil, the government said.

Asia Draws on $2.7 Trillion of Reserves to Safeguard Currencies

Asian finance ministers will this week probably agree to pool part of the region's $2.7 trillion in foreign-exchange holdings to prevent a repeat of the crisis that depleted reserves ten years ago.

Loan derivatives poised for explosive growth

The market for derivatives of the risky corporate loans that are generally used to fund private equity buy-out deals is beginning to enjoy improving trading volumes and many are predicting that the next 12 months will see explosive growth.

Canadian Mint Introduces Wheel-Sized Pure Gold Coin

The Royal Canadian Mint today unveiled a gold coin that's as big as a car wheel and as thick as a hardcover novel, in a bid to help win business lost to global competitors.

The 100-kilogram (220-pound) coin, which is 99.999 percent pure gold, the largest and purest piece ever made, was shown to reporters for the first time today at the mint in Ottawa. While each coin has a face value of C$1 million ($900,000), the purity and quantity of the bullion gold they're made of makes them worth more than twice as much, based on current prices.

Debt, Deficit, Derivatives & Delusions - 04/30/07

China's Protein Gap Will Stoke Global Inflation: Andy Mukherjee

The ``tortilla crisis'' that shook Mexico in January may not have been a flash in the pan.

If Jing Ulrich, the Hong Kong-based chairwoman of China equities at JPMorgan Chase & Co., is correct, everything from beer to steak might just become more expensive globally.

American Monetary Policy Will Ruin the European Union's Economy

The Fed has been engineering the continuance of a strong dollar and the EU has been forced to follow suit although both countries are facing an incipient recession. This article will explain why this policy will fail with the ultimate effect of impoverishing the working classes in both the US and the EU. In the interest of keeping the rich in the US happy, the FED has pursued policies designed to keep them rich but will ruin the working classes and ultimately ruin the rich as well. The foreign trade deficits which are the result of this policy will, within a short period, cause a catastrophic fall in the value of the dollar resulting in a worldwide financial implosion and worldwide recession. First it is necessary to explain the history of the economic policies which caused these deficits.

Five Things You Need to Know About the Mr. T Gold Indicator

1. About the Mr. T Gold Indicator

What is the Mr. T Gold Indicator?
The Mr. T Gold Indicator is a proprietary technical indicator created by Minyanville to identify and anticipate prospective exhaustion points in the price data for gold. Some technical indicators rely on formulas applied to the price data of a security, but these types of indicators can be very subjective, requiring an analyst to view the signals that are generated within the context of still more indicators! The Mr. T Gold indicator, on the other hand, is completely objective and easy to use. All you have to do is look at Mr. T. What could be easier than that?

Treasury to offer cross-border derivatives data

The U.S. Treasury said on Friday it will begin publishing data on the value of U.S. cross-border derivatives contracts in May, information that could alter size of the U.S. current account deficit.

The new data, which will be published quarterly alongside the Treasury International Capital data, will expand the information available on U.S. cross-border capital flows and international investment holdings.

Yen Gains as Carry Trades Cut After China Acts to Cool Growth

The yen rebounded from a record low against the euro as China curbed lending to cool its economy, prompting traders to sell Asian shares and investments funded by borrowing in the Japanese currency.

The yen gained against 15 of the 16 most actively traded currencies as investors unwound carry trades, where they borrow in Japan and buy higher-yielding assets elsewhere. Losses in the euro accelerated as the threat of military intervention in Turkey's election caused investors to pare holdings and repay yen loans.

Funny Money: An Inconvenient Truth

Boris Yeltsin passed away this week. I spent the summer of 1992 teaching English in Russia. In the short time I was there, post-Soviet hyperinflation caused the price of bananas to soar from 15 to 150 rubbles. Thanks Boris, you prepared me for the New York City housing market.

Boris Yeltsin, Kurt Vonnegut, David Halberstam. It's been a rough couple weeks. Is the universe giving me a hint? The people that influenced my youth are moving on, so maybe I should move on from my youth? Hmmm. Nah, let's make more jokes about funny-sounding company names.

Collateralized Debt Obligations the Fastest Growing Sector of the Fixed Income Market

Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/c55373) has announced the addition of Developments in Collateralized Debt Obligations: New Products and Insights to their offering.

Developments In Collateralized Debt Obligations

The fastest growing sector of the fixed income market is the market for collateralized debt obligations (CDOs). Fostered by the development of credit default swaps (CDS) on all types of indexes of corporate bonds, emerging market bonds, commercial loans, and structured products, new products are being introduced into this market with incredible speed.