Houston Chronicle: BP chief says another oil spike is possible

Oil executives and political leaders told a major petroleum conference Monday that the era of cheap energy is over and warned of another price spike if investment in oil production is curtailed.

“Prices are falling, but they’re falling for the wrong reasons: because of reduced demand and a consequence of reduced economic activity, not because we have increased supply or increased energy efficiency,” BP Chief Executive Tony Hayward said at the Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference.

( Click the subject line for the story )

Answers From Schlumberger's Top Brass (SLB)

During the conference call held to discuss the quarter, Chairman and CEO Andrew Gould initial statements included:

• The deterioration in the credit markets will have an effect on its customers, but this will largely impact North America only.
• Management does not know the extent to which current events will hurt 2009 drilling activity.
• Management is still looking for a slowing in the rate of growth in customer spending - not a decline.
• Even if activity is curtailed, due to the "age of the production profile and the decrease in reserve replacement ratios", any significant slowdown in exploration and production investment will cause a sharp drop in production, which will lead to a recovery.

Gould and the other executives were then questioned, some may say "interrogated", by analysts as to the extent and duration of any downturn.

( Click subject line for the entire article )

Collateral Damage

Chesapeak CEO Sold All Stock to Meet Margin Calls

Chesapeake Energy Corp. said its chief executive officer, Aubrey McClendon, involuntarily sold ``substantially all'' of his common shares of the company's stock over the past three days to meet margin loan calls.

``These involuntary and unexpected sales were precipitated by the extraordinary circumstances of the worldwide financial crisis,'' McClendon said in today's statement. ``In no way do these sales reflect my view of the company's financial position or my view of Chesapeake's future performance potential.''

McClendon, 49, owned 33.5 million shares, or 5.8 percent of the company's common stock, according to a Sept. 30 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. He was the company's third-largest shareholder.

Chesapeake, this year's worst-performing petroleum producer in the Standard & Poor's 500, fell 6.7 percent in New York trading today amid concern hedging contracts won't protect the company against a plunge in natural-gas prices. McClendon's divestiture was announced after the close of regular trading on U.S. stock markets.

``You have to imagine Aubrey's lost a large portion of his fortune,'' Benjamin Dell, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., said today in a telephone interview. He rates the stock at ``market perform'' and owns none.

The Oil Drum has a good thread on this

Middle East Oil Consumption and Exports

CIBC world markets chief economist Jeff Rubin discusses with Erin Burnett and Larry Kudlow of CNBC.

Matt Simmons on Bloomberg

Simmons discusses Saudi Arabia, Gas prices, Oil prices, Peak Oil etc.

Matt Simmons discusses Peak Oil on CNBC

Robert Hirch on CNBC

Hofmeister vs Simmons

Shell CEO Hofmeister on Peak Oil & Simmons


Matt Simmons Responds -

Peak Oil: What could it mean for Vancouver?

Peak Oil Linkfest - 07/28/07

Oil Rises on Signs U.S. Gasoline Supplies Dropped a Fourth Week

Crude oil in New York rose to the highest close since Aug. 15 on speculation that U.S. gasoline supplies declined for a fourth week.

Gasoline supplies fell 2.3 million barrels in the week ended Aug. 24, according to the median of responses by 10 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. The crude-oil market often follows gasoline during the summer. Prices were down earlier on speculation that subprime-mortgage losses in the U.S. will spread through the economy, reducing growth and demand for fuels.


The Gasoline Crisis in Iran

In late June 2007, the Iranian government launched a comprehensive gasoline rationing policy, necessitated, in part, by the growing demand for gasoline in Iran's domestic market that could not be met by its oil production infrastructure.

Although Iran is among the world's major exporters of crude oil, it has limited processing and refining facilities, and thus must import most of its refined oil for domestic use. There has been no significant investment in developing its oil refining facilities since the Shah's era, and Iran depends entirely on imported gasoline.


Tomgram: Dilip Hiro, America on the Downward Slope

Pick up the paper any day and you'll find tiny straws in the wind (or headlines inside the fold) reflecting the seeping away of American power. The President of the planet's "sole superpower" and his top diplomats and commanders have been denouncing Iran for months as the evil hand behind American disaster in Iraq as well as Afghanistan.


Energy Report is Handgrenade in Bubblewrap

The working draft of the National Petroleum Council’s forecast of global oil and gas trends runs to nearly 500 pages. Weighing as much as the chunk of foam that brought down the Space Shuttle Columbia, this curious document reads like a hand grenade encased in Bubble Wrap. Since its release, the report (and a more digestible 40-page executive summary) has received 750,000 hits. (www.npc.org.).

Facing the Hard Truths About Energy is perplexing, even schizophrenic. In maddening fashion, it blends numerous cautions about the “accumulating risks” to global oil and gas production with repeated, rosy reassurances that we “aren’t running out,” as if anyone said we were.


The last straw? Alongside debt, rising food prices threaten industrial growth

Just when the world economy seemed to have found immunity to rising world fuel prices, the rising world grain price may be the shock that finally ends its long upturn, as costlier food baskets eat into household budgets.

A surge in world oil prices - to over $70 per barrel this month, almost double the level of two years ago – has not caused a return to the production downturns and price rises (‘stagflation’) that followed previous petroleum shocks in 1973 and 1979. The global economy continues to grow strongly, with emerging markets expanding fast and a pick-up in the EU offsetting signs of slowdown in the US. Relocation of industrial production, and a widening range of services, to low-cost countries is suppressing northern hemisphere inflation rates. Among the biggest of the emerging markets, Russia’s boom is being fed by oil, China’s is still largely powered by coal, Brazil is rapidly substituting its fossil energy needs from biofuel, and India’s rising exports and capital inflows have stopped its growth being checked by rising oil demand.


Meat prices set to soar as production costs mount: analyst

The price of meat may soon increase as production costs mount and demand outstrips supply, a British analyst said Tuesday.

Richard Crane, a London-based analyst with the consulting firm Deloitte, said beef, pork and poultry producers are struggling with rising feed costs. Grain prices reached an unprecedented peak of $7.44 U.S. a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade market last week after climbing steadily for months.


How Weak Dollar Affects OPEC

When oil price spikes have occurred in the past, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has quickly increased supply, taking advantage of the high U.S. dollar selling price, but also thereby eventually driving down the oil price, making Americans and everyone else who uses oil happy.

But now, even with oil prices nearing a record high, opec is not stepping up production. Why?


OPEC has set unofficial target price of 70 usd per barrel for oil - IEA

OPEC has set an unofficial target oil price of around 70 usd per barrel, which could weigh on growth, said Claude Mandil, director general of the International Energy Agency, in an interview with the Arab Oil & Gas monthly.

'The market has become aware' that OPEC 'has set an implicit new objective of keeping prices at or around 70 usd per barrel and that the organisation is trying to defend this level,' said Mandil.


July oil output drops at Mexico's Cantarell field

Crude oil output dropped in July at Mexico's aging Cantarell offshore field, according to data published on the energy ministry's Web site on Monday. Cantarell, closely watched by the oil industry after sharp dips in output in recent months, produced an average of 1.526 million barrels per day versus 1.570 million bpd in June.

The figure meant Cantarell accounted for just 48.2 per cent of Mexico's overall crude oil output last month, continuing a steady decline over the past year at the field, which once produced around 60 per cent of the country's oil.


The end of oil is not a possibility but a certainty

Regardless of how long you've been alive, whether you're 16 or 60, it's never been a problem to get gasoline. The ability to fill our gas tanks has often felt as guaranteed to Americans as free speech and free press. However, the privilege of gas may become a thing of the past quicker than we may think.

There is one fact often overlooked when dealing with the issue of oil and that is this: We cannot make a finite resource infinite.


How Corn Ethanol Could Pollute the Bay

Despite rising food prices, it seems that nearly everyone is turning to corn-based ethanol as their choice for alternative fuel. Hidden behind these headlines, though, is an equally important but less visible cost: water pollution.

Corn is a "leaky" crop, losing more nitrogen per acre than most other crops. In the Washington region, much of this excess nitrogen ends up polluting the Chesapeake Bay and robbing fish, crabs and oysters of oxygen.

Peak Oil Linkfest - 08/24/07

Economist Sees Peak Oil Near

Peak oil, the point at which production of oil worldwide begins a progressive decline, is probably coming soon, economist George Littel told members of the Kansas Independent Oil and Gas Association at their annual convention this morning.

Further, Littel said, when peak oil arrives it will be an economic, not a geologic, event because demand for energy is a strong driver of new exploration and production.


Current global challenges and alternative energy futures for South Africa

The combined effect of depletion of global oil and natural gas reserves, climate change and global monetary imbalances and financial instability is likely to have significant impacts on the global and South African economies throughout the 21st Century.

These impacts are likely to include far reaching consequences for energy, food security, settlement patterns and social stability.


Corn, ethanol rush relies on dwindling water

The field came to life in the August wind, dense stalks swaying in tandem, silky tassels swirling like so many kite tails in the sun.

Duard Fix shouldered his way through the lush stand, stopping to break off and husk a prize he'd been waiting for since May: The perfect ear of corn — nearly 800 light yellow kernels in 16 neatly symmetrical rows.


Saudi domestic oil consumption up 6.2pc in ’06

Saudi Arabia's domestic oil consumption last year went up by 6.2 per cent to 2 million barrels per day (bpd) from 1.89 million bpd in 2005 in the wake of economic boom, while its oil production for the international market declined by 2.3 per cent during the same period, according to the ŒBP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2007' released recently.

Economic analysts attributed the growth to the surge in economic development, especially the decision to set up economic cities, industrial estates and IT parks in different parts of the Kingdom.


Iran's hangmen work overtime to silence opposition

Stonings, hangings, floggings, purges. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad might claim that United Nations sanctions can't hurt his country, but that is not how it feels for Iran's long-suffering population which now finds itself on the receiving end of one of the most brutal purges witnessed since the 1979 Islamic revolution.

The most visible manifestation of the new oppression sweeping Iran has been the wave of public executions and floggings carried out in Teheran and provincial capitals over recent weeks in a blatant attempt by the regime to intimidate political opponents. The official government line is that the punishments are part of its "Plan to Enforce Moral Behaviour".


World oil prices climbing again

Crude oil prices rose on Thursday after earlier losses as a steady stock market performance alleviated worries about dampening consumer demand caused by the slowdown in economic growth.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude for delivery in October closed 57 cents higher at 69.83 dollars per barrel. In London, the price of Brent North Sea crude for October delivery settled 1.16 dollars higher at 69.86 dollars per barrel.


Industrial Agrofuels Have No Future; Does Food?

The E.U. has set absurdly high targets for agrofuels in its transportation fuel mix. By 2020, the E.U. intends to sate 10 percent of its transportation demand with agrofuels, and it is counting on cellulosic ethanol for most of that new fuel.
It won’t work. Advocates claim that cellulosic ethanol has a positive energy return – that is, the magnitude of energy required for biomass production and conversion is smaller than the magnitude of energy displaced by the ethanol produced. And this claim has been carefully crafted to convey the idea that (a) cellulosic ethanol can replace fossil fuels, and that (b) we should be happy with this new technology, because cellulosic ethanol is an energy-positive fuel and therefore, the more we drive the more we save.


The Peak Oil Crisis: Hurricanes and Meltdowns

Earlier this week Hurricane Dean slammed into the Yucatan peninsula and crossed over into the Bay of Campeche where some 1.5 million of the 10 million barrels the U.S. imports every day are produced. While it is too early for a full damage assessment, at best a few days of production will be lost and possibly quite a bit more if any of the production platforms, pipeline systems and nitrogen injection facilities have been damaged.


"Peak oil" becomes burning issue

Swiss scientists say politicians and the public should have a greater awareness of "peak oil" – the moment when the world's maximum crude oil output is reached.
Researchers at Basel University warn that although climate change is grabbing more headlines than the possible exhaustion of fossil fuels, a conflict is brewing over crude oil.

This suggests that U.S. imports will be less than normal over the next few weeks. While some of these imports might be made up by increased shipments from other countries, the tight overall oil market suggests that this will be difficult.


Share slump and credit crunch: passing peak oil

Regular readers may be surprised to see me offer commentary on the financial markets, given my dim view of such factories of speculation and greed. This is no sideshow, however. The unfolding turmoil may eventually be seen as a historic event. Another turning point, the worldwide peak in oil production, is a key player in this unfolding drama, although its role goes unnoticed by most in the audience.

Peak Oil Update - 08/18/07

Making do without

The growing recognition that the world is at or nearly at the all-time peak of conventional oil production (meaning from that point on, oil flows will inexorably decline at some unknown rate) has prompted a furious search for replacements, all intended to keep the high-carbon, high-flying, automobile lifestyle going.

Like crack addicts warned of a future shortage, we are literally searching the corners of the Earth to figure out how we're going to get our fix when times is tight.


The latest from peak oil land: ponies and lollipops!

I don't do much writing about peak oil here. It's horrifically depressing, for one thing, and for another I doubt I could add to the comprehensive work being done at the Oil Drum and elsewhere. That's my excuse and I'm sticking to it.

If you're like me and you only tune in to the issue occasionally, check out the latest from Michael Klare over at TomDispatch: "Tough oil on tap." It's a nice, fairly concise roundup of the latest reports and news from the peak oil world. And yeah, it's depressing. Here's the conclusion:


U.S. Tough Talk on Iran: A Sign of Isolation

Washington's reported plan to name Iran's Revolutionary Guards as a "specially designated global terrorist" organization may be less about raising pressure on Tehran than about raising pressure on U.S. allies to support a tougher line with Iran. In fact, the move reflects Washington's relative isolation on the question of how to deal with Iran. The New York Times reported Wednesday that the move is primarily directed at appeasing Bush Administration hawks and U.S. legislators who have been agitating for a more aggressive posture on Iran, and at turning the screws on European allies who are reluctant at this stage to escalate U.N. sanctions on Tehran over its nuclear program.


Tomgram: Michael Klare, Tough Oil on Tap

News stories just out report that the Bush administration is planning to designate Iran's entire Revolutionary Guard Corps a "specially designated global terrorist" in order to tighten sanctions on that country. This follows a many-months-long drumbeat of U.S. claims against Iran -- for arming not just Shiite militias (and Sunni insurgents) with the most sophisticated roadside bombs to attack American troops, but the Taliban as well (an especially unlikely charge).


Oil Gains as Storm, Weather System Threaten Gulf Oil Production

Oil rose more than 1 percent in New York, the biggest gain in two weeks, on concern a tropical storm and a separate weather disturbance may damage oil platforms and pipelines in the Gulf of Mexico.

Royal Dutch Shell Plc evacuated staff from the Gulf as a precaution because of a tropical disturbance near the Yucatan Peninsula. Atlantic Tropical Storm Dean may become a hurricane by the end of the week, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said. In 2005, hurricanes Katrina and Rita decimated platforms and pipelines along the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts.


Global Warming Is A Hoax Still Read

GLOBAL WARMING IS A HOAX STILL REAL....Remember the big foofaraw a few days ago when a global warming skeptic finally found a bug in some U.S. temperature calculations? 1998 was no longer the hottest year on record! The United States is cooler than it was in 1934!

All this was over a small Y2K correction that lowered a few years of data for the U.S. by about a tenth of a degree. And what about the correction for global warming? Well, it's in the chart above.


Analysis: evidence still shows global warming

The wrongly calculated temperature statistics have left Nasa with egg on its face, but should have little long term effect beyond handing global warming-deniers a propaganda coup.

However embarrassing the oversight may have been, the adjustment to the temperature records from the United States is a matter of hundredths of a degree and does not alter the overall trend.


The Oil Patch Cheers On Hurricane Dean

The price of crude oil is down some 8 percent since August 1. What the oil patch and every oil trader knows, one of the quickest ways to turn around this tumble is the drama of a good old fashioned hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico wending its way toward the Texas and Louisiana coasts. And Shazam! Here comes Hurricane Dean!

Hurricane Dean's every little ripple will be reported by the oil industry flacks and their willing mouthpieces in the media. The crescendo of ominous events will be forecast and analyzed, all with a unanimity of purpose leading to higher and higher oil prices. Whether the storm actually hits or not, one thing is sure. The mere specter of the event will have the oil industry and the oil trading community cheering, "Go Big Dean, Go".


Why ‘Peak Oil’ May Soon Pique Your Interest

Do a Google search of the Web on “global warming” and it calls up more than 80 million references. Search for “peak oil” and the number exceeds 10 million.

In two years or so, world concern over crude oils supplies should be so great that a Google search on that subject probably will top that of global warming, predicts Matthew Simmons, chairman of Houston-based Simmons & Company International, an investment banking firm for the energy industry.


The India nuclear deal: The top rule-maker bends the rules

The White House reached a deal late last month to provide India with U.S. civil nuclear cooperation, reversing a ban on such cooperation that had been in place since 1978.

After India's first nuclear test in 1974, the United States decided to halt nuclear exports to countries that have not signed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, and persuaded the rest of the world's nuclear suppliers to make this a global rule in 1992.

Jim Jubak on Peak Oil

Peak Oil Linkfest - 08/07/07

Why 'peak oil' may soon pique your interest

Do a Google search of the Web on "global warming" and it calls up more than 80 million references. Search for "peak oil" and the number exceeds 10 million.

In two years or so, world concern over crude oils supplies should be so great that a Google search on that subject probably will top that of global warming, predicts Matthew Simmons, chairman of Houston-based Simmons & Company International, an investment banking firm for the energy industry.


Towns prepare for 'peak oil' point

Globally we are addicted to oil. Not only are we addicted, but we use it like there was no tomorrow.

We use it for heating and lighting, it powers 95% of our transportation, we use oil to take low value foodstuffs from one side of the world to the other, we use it for plastics, manufacturing, clothing, medicine. Oil is everywhere, but it's not infinite.


The World Energy Modeling Project

The following is a guest post about the need for global energy systems modeling, by ASPO-USA co-founder Dick Lawrence. Mr. Lawrence has a degree in Physics from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute. After a career at Digital Equipment and Intel he is focusing on the world energy model and starting a solar hot-water business in Massachusetts. In 1986 he read "Beyond Oil" (the original) which was his introduction to resource depletion, Hubbert's peak, and the power of computers to model the behavior of complex systems. In May 2004 he proposed a project to model global energy flow at the ASPO meeting in Berlin.


Kelpie Wilson: Paying the Peak Oil Power Bill

Sometime this week, the House will vote on a new "energy independence" bill designed by the Democrats. Even though Congress just passed an omnibus energy bill in 2005, there is growing agreement on both sides of the aisle that the need for "energy security" is growing and more must be done to ensure it.


Qatar says Opec can do nothing about oil prices

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) can do nothing about the high price of oil as there is no shortage of crude in the market, Qatar's oil minister said on Thursday.

"We can't do anything because this price is not related to a shortage of supply," Qatar's Oil Minister Abdullah Al Attiyah said. "Inventories in industrialised countries are at high levels. That proves there is no shortage of supply at all."


Peak Oil Passnotes: To Sir With love

The U.K. has a problem: Its local oil and gas have peaked. There is no argument, it is not heresy in the local industry and you can say it without being dragged out of your office and exposed as a communist. U.K. North Sea production peaked some years back at about 3 million barrels per day and continues to decline at around 1.8 million barrels per day at the moment. The decline rate is around 7% a year.

The same thing has happened in the United States. Oil production peaked at the start of the 1970s and, despite the huge concentration of capital and wells, continues to decline. These are both basic facts.


The End Of Cheap Food

It looks like the era of cheap food is over. The price of maize has doubled in a year, and wheat futures are at their highest in a decade. The food price index in India has risen 11%, and in Mexico in January there were riots after the price of corn flour went up fourfold. The floods in England and India have devastated crops. In nearly every country food prices are going up, and they are probably not going to come down again.

Peak Oil Linkfest -07/24/07

Cold sore - Russia's relations with the West

In early 2000, the UK embassy in Moscow took a bit of a gamble. They persuaded Tony Blair to make one of his first major foreign policy initiatives a meeting with the new face in the Kremlin and heir apparent, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. At the time it was a bit of a shocker – a popular, powerful, top-level, democratically elected leader meeting with an unelected, unknown, KGB spy who was failing to manage a bankrupt country over-run by dodgy oligarchs.


Migrating to New Energy Paradigms Part 2 - The Economic Importance of Crude Oil

Peak Oil is defined as the point at which 50% of the world's oil reserves have been consumed, and 50% remain. We all understand that oil is important to the world economy, but just how important is it?

In October 2004 I attempted to answer this question on behalf of a client as part of that client's long range strategic planning process. The amount of work involved was fairly significant so I have chosen to rely on my findings of that time for the purposes of this article. There are two other reasons:


$100-a-barrel oil may be only a few months away

The $100-a-barrel oil that Goldman Sachs Group said would prevail by 2009 may be only a few months away.

Jeffrey Currie, a London-based commodity analyst at the largest brokerage firm, said that $95 crude was quite likely this year unless OPEC unexpectedly increased production and that declining inventories were raising the chances for $100 oil.


The future is solar; politics is ethanol

This seems like a good place to tout Robert Rapier's excellent recent post: "The future is solar." In it, he makes the very simple point that photosynthesis -- the means by which corn, rapeseed, switchgrass, etc. make energy from sunlight -- is not particularly efficient: "when an acre of rapeseed/canola is planted, we get about 0.06% conversion of the sun's energy into oil."


Falling dollar puts pressure on Opec

The falling US dollar is lowering the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ purchasing power by up to a third, making the powerful oil cartel more reluctant to increase production and cut prices.

Although oil is trading near last August’s record $78.65 a barrel, Opec calculations show that, when adjusted for the weaker dollar and inflation, an average of the 12 Opec members’ crude oil prices has fallen in the past year.


British teach less Churchill, more global warming

Once upon a time, the British curriculum was straightforward. There was math, English, science. You learned about Winston Churchill, how to locate Greece, and how to say "My name is John" in French.

But starting next year British teenagers will face an exotic range of new disciplines designed to equip them with more practical skills. Healthy cooking, personal finances, and global warming are in. Charles Dickens, Jane Austen, and the Battle of the Nile may be nudged out.


Nigeria: Tackling the Niger Delta Crisis

From being prided as the region that lays the golden egg for the nation, the Niger Delta gradually slipped into the abyss of underdevelopment and environmental pollution. Today, it has metamorphosed into a zone characterised by militancy, pipeline vandalisation and hostage-taking for ransom. This region that accounts for only about 7.5% of Nigeria's landmass has become a top priority of the President Umaru Yar'Adua's administration, having been similarly prioritised by the regime of former President Olusegun Obasanjo.


The Future of Thought in the Oil and Gas Industry

When I joined Shell Development in January 1983, I was among a group of 11 Ph.D.s, engineers and physicists hired from the best U.S. universities. I entered a venerable research organization shaped by none other than M. King Hubbert, who led Shell Development for 20 years. Over its history, this organization gave the world Hubbert’s peaks and the notion of resource limitations, W. R. Purcell (capillarity), G. E. Archie (modern petrophysics), M. A. Biot (modern geophysics), J. Handin (rock physics), and many others.

Peak Oil Linkfest - 07/22/07

After peak oil: Will America survive?

As public awareness about peak oil continues to grow, and even the big oil companies like Exxon Mobil Corp. are now starting to admit that the future supply of oil looks troublesome (see this Boston Globe article), there's an increasing focus on renewable energy solutions. But most members of the public still don't understand energy very well, and they generally have no idea whether alternative energy sources like solar, wind or CSP (see below) can replace oil. Many people are concerned about a potential collapse of modern society due to the end of cheap oil. So to help answer some of these questions, I've put together a set of uncensored, science-based answers about oil, renewable energy and the future of modern civilization. This is offered in a Q&A format.


PM to discuss Iran crisis at Bush summit

GORDON BROWN is to discuss the looming crisis over Iran with President George W Bush on his first official visit to America as prime minister. The summit may take place next weekend at Camp David, the presidential retreat, although the dates and location are still being finalised.

It comes as one Washington source said the mood in the Bush administration had hardened in favour of military strikes to prevent Iran developing a bomb. “There are increasing signs that Bush will not want to leave a nuclear-armed Iran as his legacy,” the source said.


BNP plans to seek safety in Croatian idyll

When the fossil fuels run out, leaders of Britain's far right hope to survive on a farm in the Balkans.

A few miles from the historic southern Croatian town of Knin lie 1,100 hectares of farmland and a couple of abandoned buildings. A tributary from the river Krka runs through the lush countryside nestled close to the sun-drenched Adriatic coast.


Lots of energy, shortage of policy

The U.S. National Petroleum Council's new report on global energy markets, believed to be one of the most extensive studies of its kind, received mixed reviews this week from greens and others whose policy ideas depend on an ever-present looming catastrophe. Especially put out by the 470-page report, titled Facing the Hard Truths About Energy, were the peak-oil theorists, who believe disaster is imminent as the world supply of conventional oil is set to peak, triggering a catastrophic decline.


OPEC oil prices hit record high

The daily average oil price of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) hit a new record of 72.83 U.S. dollars per barrel on Monday, up 0.34 dollars from the previous trading day and 0.16 dollars higher than the previous record set last August.

The OPEC's weekly average prices also reached a record high of 71.86 dollars per barrel, 0.14 dollars higher than the previous record set in the second week of August 2006, the cartel's secretariat said on Tuesday.

Peak Oil Linkfest - 07/16/07

IEA calls for Opec to increase production

World oil demand growth will accelerate in 2008 to 2.5 per cent from this year’s 1.8 per cent despite high oil prices, the industrialised countries’ energy watchdog said on Friday.

The International Energy Agency’s forecast comes as Brent oil rose to a fresh 11-month high of $77.60 a barrel , about $1 below the all-time high set last August.


World not running out of oil, says report

Proponents of “peak oil”, the theory that global crude oil production is nearing its zenith, are unimpressed with a US oil industry group’s findings that the world has plenty of oil.

This week the US National Petroleum Council, a board of high-level US oil industry executives, releases its study titled, Facing the Hard Truths about Energy, conducted at the behest of US Energy Secretary Sam Bodman.


On the precipice: Energy security and economic stability on the edge

I am a Major in the United States Army. When looking at this report for the first time, one may legitimately ask why an Army officer is writing about energy issues.

The genesis for this project began many months ago when I was conducting research for a project related to the development of the future force in the US Army. I believed it was important to include an effective assessment of what the world might look like in the year the force was projected to complete its initial fielding (2030).


New Oil Reports Add Confusion To 'Peak Oil' Theory

Proponents of "peak oil" -- the theory that global crude oil production has hit its zenith and is headed for a steep decline -- are upset with a U.S. oil industry group's findings that the world has plenty of oil. Next week the U.S. National Petroleum Council -- a board of high-level U.S. oil industry executives -- releases its study titled "Facing the Hard Truths about Energy," conducted at the behest of Energy Secretary Sam Bodman. According to the report's executive summary obtained by Reuters, the world is not running out of oil but there are "accumulating risks" to securing supply through 2030. In a draft letter to Bodman outlining its findings, the National Petroleum Council says, "The world is not running out of energy resources, but there are accumulating risks to continuing expansion of oil and natural gas production from the conventional sources relied upon historically."


In West China, saving the go-go juice

I heard about a village two hours from Chongqing City with old city walls surrounding smoke stained wooden beamed homes, cobble stone streets and stone carvings chiseled into cliff faces 400 years ago. Along the way to Lai Tan, I wanted to gaze out of bus windows and simply compare the differences between Chinese and western methods of fossil fuel use and human power, but first I had to get to the bus station.


Energy's Manpower Peak? - Why the biggest problem might not be oil.

For headhunters like Tom Zay, business couldn’t be better. “I have never seen demand like this,” says Zay, a managing director in the Houston office of Boyden, an executive worldwide search firm. “We’ve had cycles in the past. But this is different.”

Indeed it is. While Zay looks for executives and top-level managers, the entire energy industry – from welders, tank builders, and roughnecks to petroleum engineers, nuclear engineers, and technicians – is strapped for talent. And the problems are likely to get substantially worse before they get better. Nor is the labor shortage limited to the U.S. and the hydrocarbon sector. Rather, it is worldwide, and being felt in industries ranging from coal mining to nuclear power. The reasons for the labor crunch are many: an aging workforce, lagging student interest in engineering, a lack of interest in blue-collar jobs like welding, and perhaps most important, the strong commodity prices that have led to a boom in energy projects of all types.


Potential Energy Crunch May Bring Other Fuels to Fore

World oil and gas supplies from conventional sources are unlikely to keep up with rising global demand over the next 25 years, the U.S. petroleum industry says in a draft report of a study commissioned by the government.

In the draft report, oil-industry leaders acknowledge the world will need to develop all the supplemental sources of energy it can -- ranging from biofuels to nuclear power to oil extracted by unconventional means from the oil sands of Canada -- to meet soaring demand. The surge in demand is expected to arise from rapid economic growth in such fast-developing countries as China and India, as well as mounting consumption in the U.S., the world's biggest energy market.


Energy: the new cold war

Since the close of the cold war, we have been growing used to threats such as terrorism where the enemy has no state or territory. But soon we will have to get used to new strategic challenges, such as energy security, where fossil fuels will be used as weapons to achieve political ends. Energy security will be synonymous with national security and economic security.


Oil 'could hit $95 a barrel this year'

The key Middle Eastern members of oil cartel OPEC were tonight coming under pressure for an immediate increase in production after a warning from Goldman Sachs that prices could hit a peak of $95 a barrel by the end of the year.

With a new bout of speculative activity today driving Brent crude to within a few cents of the record $78.65 reached last summer, Goldman said shortages of supply were behind the steady rise in oil prices.


Disaster at the end of the cheap energy era

While warning signs are appearing of associated crises in the rapidly rising Third World populations and the rising prices for diminishing world resources of food and raw materials, the International Energy Authority has belatedly accepted the reality of peak oil and the fearful impact this will have on the future of the world.

The devastating nature of this issue is that humanity has used up half of the world's oil reserves, with the remaining half overwhelmingly lower in quality and in less accessible fields.


Are these the last days of the Oil Age?

Oil ruled the 20th century; the shortage of oil will rule the 21st. There is now no doubt about the rising trend in oil prices. In 2003 a barrel of Brent crude sold for $29; in 2004 it rose to $38; in 2005 it rose to $54.50; in 2006 it rose to $65. Last Friday the price closed at $77.50. Some dealers expect it to test the $80 level quite shortly.


Crude Oil Rises to 11-Month High as North Sea Production Drops

Crude oil rose to an 11-month high in New York and London after a pipeline shutdown and maintenance work reduced North Sea Brent oil production.

Chevron Corp. and ConocoPhillips said they lost output from North Sea fields that produce oil and gas after BP Plc closed the pipeline. BG Group Plc said its Armada oil field in the North Sea has been shut for maintenance since June. The International Energy Agency said in a report today that global oil demand will rise 2.5 percent next year.


A new dawn for nuclear power

Despite its environmentally unfriendly image, nuclear power is firmly back on the world's energy agenda thanks to the need to cut carbon-dioxide emissions. Paul Norman, Andrew Worrall and Kevin Hesketh describe how the next generation of nuclear power stations will be cleaner and more efficient than ever


Peak Oil Passnotes: Peak Oil Zombie Attack

As we have made clear many times in this column we hold little truck with many of the whackos who inhabit the wondrous world of ‘Peak Oil’. Yes, despite the title of the column. No sooner do people start talking about energy supply crunches, plateauing production or acreage inflection then a host of bedraggled crazies rise forth from their graves to tell us a number of scary items.

Firstly, we are often told humanity is going to “die off.” What a great idea. It could almost be a book, or a series of books and a website. Oh wait. It is. Like an energy-related version of the film 28 Days Later. Every lazy person around the planet can argue how many people will be alive in 2050 or 2100 and no one can prove them wrong. Ker-ching!


"Peak oil" advocates blast U.S. industry study

Proponents of "peak oil" -- the theory that global crude oil production has hit its zenith and is headed for a steep decline -- are steamed with a U.S. oil industry group's findings that the world has plenty of oil.

Next week the U.S. National Petroleum Council -- a board of high-level U.S. oil industry executives -- releases its study titled "Facing the Hard Truths about Energy," conducted at the behest of Energy Secretary Sam Bodman.


Net Oil Exports and the "Iron Triangle"

As Matt Simmons pointed out several years ago, the critical problem with post-peak exporting regions is that we would have two exponential functions (declining production and generally increasing consumption) working against net exports. From the point of view of importers, it is quite likely that we are facing a crash in oil supplies. In my opinion, what I have described as the “Iron Triangle” is doing everything possible to keep this message from reaching consumers.


Iran Asks Japan to Pay Yen for Oil, Start Immediately

Iran asked Japanese refiners to switch to the yen to pay for all crude oil purchases, after Iran's central bank said it is reducing holdings of the U.S. dollar.

Iran wants yen-based transactions ``for any/all of your forthcoming Iranian crude oil liftings,'' according to a letter sent to Japanese refiners that was signed by Ali A. Arshi, general manager of crude oil marketing and exports in Tehran at the National Iranian Oil Co. The request is for all shipments ``effective immediately,'' according to the letter, dated July 10 and obtained by Bloomberg News.

Peak Oil Linkfest - 07/08/07

Around the Markets: Biofuel demand gives lift to commodities

Sugar, corn, wheat and cotton may be among the best commodity investments in the next one to three years, driven by biofuel demand and rising incomes in China and India, according to UBS, the world's largest money manager.

"Investors can expect to see a 6 to 10 percent plus return per year on those investments," Stuart Fox, UBS's head of commodities in Asia Pacific, said by phone from Hong Kong. His energy and commodities traders and sales team in Asia has more than tripled to 16 people in the past 12 months.


Green facade: Why the state's eco-friendly cars aren't doing the job

During the past two years, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's administration sunk more than $17 million into a state fleet of cars and trucks designed to be environmentally friendly.

So far, the 1,138 "flex-fuel" vehicles have traveled a collective 10 million miles and burned more than 413,202 gallons of gas.


Real Alternative Energy Sources

If Congress is going to subsidize energy to free us from dependence on foreign oil, it should — at the very least — spend our hard-earned taxpayer dollars on something that will work.

The unfortunate truth is that neither ethanol nor any other so-called renewable alternative energy now being discussed on Capitol Hill is likely to make any significant contribution to our energy needs.


Marchetti's Curves

This is a brief account of the Energy Susbstitution Model developed by Cesare Marchetti in the 1970s at IIASA. Using data from the latest BP Statistical Review the evolution of the energy market is compared with the model to understand why the Hubbert Peak of fossils fuels represents a problem today.


World 'building up risks over energy supplies'

The world is not running out of crude oil and natural gas but there are 'accumulating risks' to securing global supplies through 2030, a high-level board of US oil company executives found in a report.Those risks include "political hurdles, infrastructure requirements and availability of trained workforce," according to the study by the US National Petroleum Council, conducted at the behest of US Energy Secretary Sam Bodman.

The NPC, whose members include executives of big oil companies like ExxonMobil and Chevron, will present the study at its July 18 meeting.


Oil hits 10-month high near $75 on Nigeria, demand

Oil surged over 2 percent to nearly $75 a barrel on Thursday on strong demand and as fresh violence in Nigeria spurred supply concerns.

London crude rebounded after slipping from earlier highs on U.S. government data that showed crude supplies rising and refiners ramping up gasoline output to meet summer holiday driving demand.


Is Fear About Climate Change Causing a Nuclear Renaissance?

Some prominent environmentalists are urging that we reconsider nuclear power. But they have been met with resistance from many who believe nuclear power never will be a solution to global warming.

Sitting in the belly of the beast -- Dominion's 2,000-megawatt Millstone nuclear power plant in Waterford, Connecticut -- the company's chief nuclear officer, Dave Christian, seems an unlikely environmentalist. But he says concern about climate change is what got him involved in the peaceful pursuit of the atom in the first place.


IAEA: Iran Slowing Expansion of Nuclear Enrichment Capabilities

The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency says Iran has slowed the expansion of its nuclear enrichment capabilities.

In Vienna Monday, Mohamed ElBaradei said IAEA inspectors have seen a slowing in the installation of centrifuges that enrich uranium at Iran's Natanz nuclear facility.


Opec has little power to ease oil price – Algeria

Algeria’s Energy and Mines Minister Chakib Khelil said yesterday there was “not much” Opec could do to bring down high oil prices as global crude stocks were already sufficient.

“There is plenty of stocks. It’s a problem with capacity and refining,” Khelil said ahead of a gas pipeline conference in Brussels. “Even if it (Opec) increases production, it’s just going to increase stocks and not have any effect because prices are drawn by petroleum product prices.”


World facing oil ‘supply crunch’ as demand soars, agency warns

The world faces an energy squeeze as soaring demand for fuel exceeds the rate of growth in the supply of crude oil, the West’s leading energy forecaster has predicted.

In a gloomy appraisal of the global oil balance, the International Energy Agency yesterday predicted a world of increasing market tightness beyond 2010. The world faces a “supply crunch” by 2012, according to the agency’s Medium-Term Oil Market Report, with weak increases in oil output from nonOpec countries colliding with strong demand and diminished spare capacity within the cartel of oil producers.


Exploding a fair few wordy myths

AFTER recent comments from Defence Minister Brendan Nelson, debate is raging over whether America and Australia went to war in Iraq because of oil.

This is absurd. Nobody was more surprised to discover that Iraq had oil than the Allies. Goodness, with all that fuel around, it was just as well that those weapons of mass destruction were only prevented from exploding by the fact that they didn't exist. Otherwise, the whole country could have gone up in flames. Oh, wait a minute … Anyway, here are some ideas that should probably be blown up.


Iran's oil output to fall without investment - report

Iran's oil production capacity will fall by five percent a year without new investment, a senior oil official was quoted on Sunday as saying by the Iran's student news agency ISNA.

Iranian officials have previously put production capacity at a little more than 4 million barrels per day (bpd), with actual output -- limited to a quota set by the oil cartel OPEC -- running at a little below 4 million bpd.


Corn ethanol could be a dead end

As the nation fights to lower its dependence on foreign oil and Colorado works toward a new energy economy, the buzz word in energy circles is “ethanol,” and using it to power cars, trucks and electricity has become a hot topic.

But as the conversation continues, ethanol experts and politicians are beginning to agree that corn-based ethanol may not be the magic energy solution many have come to see it as.


Can I diet my way to a lighter eco footprint?

Lose weight and save the planet. It has all the hallmarks of a zeitgeist diet book and perhaps a TV series in which I will travel around putting punters on scales, measuring out their porridge for the day, and perhaps changing their light bulbs. But there is some validity to the idea that you can simultaneously shrink your waistline and your carbon footprint.

An extra 100lb of weight carried in your car, for example, reduces fuel economy by around 2 per cent. Even Richard Branson recently signed up to losing a stone before he takes an inaugural flight on one of the superlight carbon-fibre Boeing jets he has bought in order to save an extra 36lb of CO2. Given that his fleet allegedly produces 7.4m tonnes of CO2 a year, that's not a hugely rewarding diet


Will the coming oil crisis be the end of suburbia?

Three years ago, when I started to teach Introduction to Sociology for Lamar Community College, my brother sent me the DVD, “The End of Suburbia: Oil Depletion and the Collapse of the American Dream,” concerning the “coming oil crisis."

I showed it to my class to help the students better understand “social change” and what would happen to society during such a crisis. They hadn’t even heard that we were going to face such a crisis. It’s no surprise, most Americans hadn’t heard of it either; that was three years ago.


Peak Oil Passnotes: $80 Oil Beckons

The price of a barrel Brent crude is working its way back up to its records of $78.64 set last August 7. A steady and sure combination of factors has pushed it over $75 per barrel.

But when it pushes up against levels of $78 per barrel, which way is it going to go then?


Academic challenges global warming theory

An Australian academic has spoken out against the popular view that global warming is caused by greenhouse gas emissions. He believes that global warming and climate change are caused by cycles in the sun's electro-magnetic radiation. He says scientists are taking a narrow view and politicians are making policy with the wrong information.

Emeritus Professor Lance Endersbee AO is a former Dean of Engineering and Pro-Vice Chancellor of Monash University. He told Tom Harwood, ABC Western Queensland's Morning Program producer that the world has been warming naturally due to increased magnetic radiation from the sun.


Ethanol, Corn, Milk, Prices Increase

It appears that oil and gasoline aren't the only things that are going up in price these days. Milk, everyones favorite beverage, has gone up in price once again.From $3.80 to almost $5.00 a gallon. But milk however, isn't the only thing that will be on the rise. Other dairy products such as butter, cheese, yogurt, and ice cream will too.


Sugar, Grains, Cotton May Be Best Commodity Buys, UBS Forecasts

Sugar, corn, wheat and cotton may be among the best commodity investments in the next one to three years driven by biofuel demand and rising incomes in China and India, according to UBS AG, the world's largest money manager.

``Investors can expect to see a 6 to 10 percent plus return per year on those investments,'' Stuart Fox, UBS's head of commodities in Asia Pacific, said by phone from Hong Kong. His energy and commodities traders and sales team in Asia has more than tripled to 16 people in the past 12 months.


North Sea is running too dry to meet target

The energy industry warned yesterday that government targets of keeping Britain's oil and gas production at 3m barrels a day by 2010 look like being missed. North Sea competitiveness is falling and financial backers are losing confidence in the wake of tax increases introduced 18 months ago.

Civil servants have been working with oil companies to find ways to boost output offshore, but the 2007 Economic Report issued by the industry organisation Oil & Gas UK says the goal looks like being missed after five years of rising hopes.