Matt Simmons on the Oil Market

New Patent in EESU

The core ingredient is an aluminum coated barium titanate powder immersed in a polyethylene terephthalate plastic matrix. The EESU is composed of 31,353 of these components arranged in parallel. It is said to have a total capacitance of 30.693 F and can hold 52.220 kWh of energy. The device is said to have a weight of 281.56 pound including the box and all hardware. Unlike normal lithium-ion cells, the technology is said not to degrade with cycling and thus has a functionally unlimited lifetime.

( Click Subject Line to read the whole story - via ultracapacitors.org )

Houston Chronicle: BP chief says another oil spike is possible

Oil executives and political leaders told a major petroleum conference Monday that the era of cheap energy is over and warned of another price spike if investment in oil production is curtailed.

“Prices are falling, but they’re falling for the wrong reasons: because of reduced demand and a consequence of reduced economic activity, not because we have increased supply or increased energy efficiency,” BP Chief Executive Tony Hayward said at the Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference.

( Click the subject line for the story )

Answers From Schlumberger's Top Brass (SLB)

During the conference call held to discuss the quarter, Chairman and CEO Andrew Gould initial statements included:

• The deterioration in the credit markets will have an effect on its customers, but this will largely impact North America only.
• Management does not know the extent to which current events will hurt 2009 drilling activity.
• Management is still looking for a slowing in the rate of growth in customer spending - not a decline.
• Even if activity is curtailed, due to the "age of the production profile and the decrease in reserve replacement ratios", any significant slowdown in exploration and production investment will cause a sharp drop in production, which will lead to a recovery.

Gould and the other executives were then questioned, some may say "interrogated", by analysts as to the extent and duration of any downturn.

( Click subject line for the entire article )

Collateral Damage

Chesapeak CEO Sold All Stock to Meet Margin Calls

Chesapeake Energy Corp. said its chief executive officer, Aubrey McClendon, involuntarily sold ``substantially all'' of his common shares of the company's stock over the past three days to meet margin loan calls.

``These involuntary and unexpected sales were precipitated by the extraordinary circumstances of the worldwide financial crisis,'' McClendon said in today's statement. ``In no way do these sales reflect my view of the company's financial position or my view of Chesapeake's future performance potential.''

McClendon, 49, owned 33.5 million shares, or 5.8 percent of the company's common stock, according to a Sept. 30 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. He was the company's third-largest shareholder.

Chesapeake, this year's worst-performing petroleum producer in the Standard & Poor's 500, fell 6.7 percent in New York trading today amid concern hedging contracts won't protect the company against a plunge in natural-gas prices. McClendon's divestiture was announced after the close of regular trading on U.S. stock markets.

``You have to imagine Aubrey's lost a large portion of his fortune,'' Benjamin Dell, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., said today in a telephone interview. He rates the stock at ``market perform'' and owns none.

The Oil Drum has a good thread on this

Middle East Oil Consumption and Exports

CIBC world markets chief economist Jeff Rubin discusses with Erin Burnett and Larry Kudlow of CNBC.

Matt Simmons on Bloomberg

Simmons discusses Saudi Arabia, Gas prices, Oil prices, Peak Oil etc.

Matt Simmons discusses Peak Oil on CNBC

Robert Hirch on CNBC

Hofmeister vs Simmons

Shell CEO Hofmeister on Peak Oil & Simmons


Matt Simmons Responds -

Peak Oil: What could it mean for Vancouver?

Peak Oil Linkfest - 07/28/07

Oil Rises on Signs U.S. Gasoline Supplies Dropped a Fourth Week

Crude oil in New York rose to the highest close since Aug. 15 on speculation that U.S. gasoline supplies declined for a fourth week.

Gasoline supplies fell 2.3 million barrels in the week ended Aug. 24, according to the median of responses by 10 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. The crude-oil market often follows gasoline during the summer. Prices were down earlier on speculation that subprime-mortgage losses in the U.S. will spread through the economy, reducing growth and demand for fuels.


The Gasoline Crisis in Iran

In late June 2007, the Iranian government launched a comprehensive gasoline rationing policy, necessitated, in part, by the growing demand for gasoline in Iran's domestic market that could not be met by its oil production infrastructure.

Although Iran is among the world's major exporters of crude oil, it has limited processing and refining facilities, and thus must import most of its refined oil for domestic use. There has been no significant investment in developing its oil refining facilities since the Shah's era, and Iran depends entirely on imported gasoline.


Tomgram: Dilip Hiro, America on the Downward Slope

Pick up the paper any day and you'll find tiny straws in the wind (or headlines inside the fold) reflecting the seeping away of American power. The President of the planet's "sole superpower" and his top diplomats and commanders have been denouncing Iran for months as the evil hand behind American disaster in Iraq as well as Afghanistan.


Energy Report is Handgrenade in Bubblewrap

The working draft of the National Petroleum Council’s forecast of global oil and gas trends runs to nearly 500 pages. Weighing as much as the chunk of foam that brought down the Space Shuttle Columbia, this curious document reads like a hand grenade encased in Bubble Wrap. Since its release, the report (and a more digestible 40-page executive summary) has received 750,000 hits. (www.npc.org.).

Facing the Hard Truths About Energy is perplexing, even schizophrenic. In maddening fashion, it blends numerous cautions about the “accumulating risks” to global oil and gas production with repeated, rosy reassurances that we “aren’t running out,” as if anyone said we were.


The last straw? Alongside debt, rising food prices threaten industrial growth

Just when the world economy seemed to have found immunity to rising world fuel prices, the rising world grain price may be the shock that finally ends its long upturn, as costlier food baskets eat into household budgets.

A surge in world oil prices - to over $70 per barrel this month, almost double the level of two years ago – has not caused a return to the production downturns and price rises (‘stagflation’) that followed previous petroleum shocks in 1973 and 1979. The global economy continues to grow strongly, with emerging markets expanding fast and a pick-up in the EU offsetting signs of slowdown in the US. Relocation of industrial production, and a widening range of services, to low-cost countries is suppressing northern hemisphere inflation rates. Among the biggest of the emerging markets, Russia’s boom is being fed by oil, China’s is still largely powered by coal, Brazil is rapidly substituting its fossil energy needs from biofuel, and India’s rising exports and capital inflows have stopped its growth being checked by rising oil demand.


Meat prices set to soar as production costs mount: analyst

The price of meat may soon increase as production costs mount and demand outstrips supply, a British analyst said Tuesday.

Richard Crane, a London-based analyst with the consulting firm Deloitte, said beef, pork and poultry producers are struggling with rising feed costs. Grain prices reached an unprecedented peak of $7.44 U.S. a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade market last week after climbing steadily for months.


How Weak Dollar Affects OPEC

When oil price spikes have occurred in the past, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has quickly increased supply, taking advantage of the high U.S. dollar selling price, but also thereby eventually driving down the oil price, making Americans and everyone else who uses oil happy.

But now, even with oil prices nearing a record high, opec is not stepping up production. Why?


OPEC has set unofficial target price of 70 usd per barrel for oil - IEA

OPEC has set an unofficial target oil price of around 70 usd per barrel, which could weigh on growth, said Claude Mandil, director general of the International Energy Agency, in an interview with the Arab Oil & Gas monthly.

'The market has become aware' that OPEC 'has set an implicit new objective of keeping prices at or around 70 usd per barrel and that the organisation is trying to defend this level,' said Mandil.


July oil output drops at Mexico's Cantarell field

Crude oil output dropped in July at Mexico's aging Cantarell offshore field, according to data published on the energy ministry's Web site on Monday. Cantarell, closely watched by the oil industry after sharp dips in output in recent months, produced an average of 1.526 million barrels per day versus 1.570 million bpd in June.

The figure meant Cantarell accounted for just 48.2 per cent of Mexico's overall crude oil output last month, continuing a steady decline over the past year at the field, which once produced around 60 per cent of the country's oil.


The end of oil is not a possibility but a certainty

Regardless of how long you've been alive, whether you're 16 or 60, it's never been a problem to get gasoline. The ability to fill our gas tanks has often felt as guaranteed to Americans as free speech and free press. However, the privilege of gas may become a thing of the past quicker than we may think.

There is one fact often overlooked when dealing with the issue of oil and that is this: We cannot make a finite resource infinite.


How Corn Ethanol Could Pollute the Bay

Despite rising food prices, it seems that nearly everyone is turning to corn-based ethanol as their choice for alternative fuel. Hidden behind these headlines, though, is an equally important but less visible cost: water pollution.

Corn is a "leaky" crop, losing more nitrogen per acre than most other crops. In the Washington region, much of this excess nitrogen ends up polluting the Chesapeake Bay and robbing fish, crabs and oysters of oxygen.

Peak Oil Linkfest - 08/24/07

Economist Sees Peak Oil Near

Peak oil, the point at which production of oil worldwide begins a progressive decline, is probably coming soon, economist George Littel told members of the Kansas Independent Oil and Gas Association at their annual convention this morning.

Further, Littel said, when peak oil arrives it will be an economic, not a geologic, event because demand for energy is a strong driver of new exploration and production.


Current global challenges and alternative energy futures for South Africa

The combined effect of depletion of global oil and natural gas reserves, climate change and global monetary imbalances and financial instability is likely to have significant impacts on the global and South African economies throughout the 21st Century.

These impacts are likely to include far reaching consequences for energy, food security, settlement patterns and social stability.


Corn, ethanol rush relies on dwindling water

The field came to life in the August wind, dense stalks swaying in tandem, silky tassels swirling like so many kite tails in the sun.

Duard Fix shouldered his way through the lush stand, stopping to break off and husk a prize he'd been waiting for since May: The perfect ear of corn — nearly 800 light yellow kernels in 16 neatly symmetrical rows.


Saudi domestic oil consumption up 6.2pc in ’06

Saudi Arabia's domestic oil consumption last year went up by 6.2 per cent to 2 million barrels per day (bpd) from 1.89 million bpd in 2005 in the wake of economic boom, while its oil production for the international market declined by 2.3 per cent during the same period, according to the ŒBP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2007' released recently.

Economic analysts attributed the growth to the surge in economic development, especially the decision to set up economic cities, industrial estates and IT parks in different parts of the Kingdom.


Iran's hangmen work overtime to silence opposition

Stonings, hangings, floggings, purges. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad might claim that United Nations sanctions can't hurt his country, but that is not how it feels for Iran's long-suffering population which now finds itself on the receiving end of one of the most brutal purges witnessed since the 1979 Islamic revolution.

The most visible manifestation of the new oppression sweeping Iran has been the wave of public executions and floggings carried out in Teheran and provincial capitals over recent weeks in a blatant attempt by the regime to intimidate political opponents. The official government line is that the punishments are part of its "Plan to Enforce Moral Behaviour".


World oil prices climbing again

Crude oil prices rose on Thursday after earlier losses as a steady stock market performance alleviated worries about dampening consumer demand caused by the slowdown in economic growth.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude for delivery in October closed 57 cents higher at 69.83 dollars per barrel. In London, the price of Brent North Sea crude for October delivery settled 1.16 dollars higher at 69.86 dollars per barrel.


Industrial Agrofuels Have No Future; Does Food?

The E.U. has set absurdly high targets for agrofuels in its transportation fuel mix. By 2020, the E.U. intends to sate 10 percent of its transportation demand with agrofuels, and it is counting on cellulosic ethanol for most of that new fuel.
It won’t work. Advocates claim that cellulosic ethanol has a positive energy return – that is, the magnitude of energy required for biomass production and conversion is smaller than the magnitude of energy displaced by the ethanol produced. And this claim has been carefully crafted to convey the idea that (a) cellulosic ethanol can replace fossil fuels, and that (b) we should be happy with this new technology, because cellulosic ethanol is an energy-positive fuel and therefore, the more we drive the more we save.


The Peak Oil Crisis: Hurricanes and Meltdowns

Earlier this week Hurricane Dean slammed into the Yucatan peninsula and crossed over into the Bay of Campeche where some 1.5 million of the 10 million barrels the U.S. imports every day are produced. While it is too early for a full damage assessment, at best a few days of production will be lost and possibly quite a bit more if any of the production platforms, pipeline systems and nitrogen injection facilities have been damaged.


"Peak oil" becomes burning issue

Swiss scientists say politicians and the public should have a greater awareness of "peak oil" – the moment when the world's maximum crude oil output is reached.
Researchers at Basel University warn that although climate change is grabbing more headlines than the possible exhaustion of fossil fuels, a conflict is brewing over crude oil.

This suggests that U.S. imports will be less than normal over the next few weeks. While some of these imports might be made up by increased shipments from other countries, the tight overall oil market suggests that this will be difficult.


Share slump and credit crunch: passing peak oil

Regular readers may be surprised to see me offer commentary on the financial markets, given my dim view of such factories of speculation and greed. This is no sideshow, however. The unfolding turmoil may eventually be seen as a historic event. Another turning point, the worldwide peak in oil production, is a key player in this unfolding drama, although its role goes unnoticed by most in the audience.

Peak Oil Update - 08/18/07

Making do without

The growing recognition that the world is at or nearly at the all-time peak of conventional oil production (meaning from that point on, oil flows will inexorably decline at some unknown rate) has prompted a furious search for replacements, all intended to keep the high-carbon, high-flying, automobile lifestyle going.

Like crack addicts warned of a future shortage, we are literally searching the corners of the Earth to figure out how we're going to get our fix when times is tight.


The latest from peak oil land: ponies and lollipops!

I don't do much writing about peak oil here. It's horrifically depressing, for one thing, and for another I doubt I could add to the comprehensive work being done at the Oil Drum and elsewhere. That's my excuse and I'm sticking to it.

If you're like me and you only tune in to the issue occasionally, check out the latest from Michael Klare over at TomDispatch: "Tough oil on tap." It's a nice, fairly concise roundup of the latest reports and news from the peak oil world. And yeah, it's depressing. Here's the conclusion:


U.S. Tough Talk on Iran: A Sign of Isolation

Washington's reported plan to name Iran's Revolutionary Guards as a "specially designated global terrorist" organization may be less about raising pressure on Tehran than about raising pressure on U.S. allies to support a tougher line with Iran. In fact, the move reflects Washington's relative isolation on the question of how to deal with Iran. The New York Times reported Wednesday that the move is primarily directed at appeasing Bush Administration hawks and U.S. legislators who have been agitating for a more aggressive posture on Iran, and at turning the screws on European allies who are reluctant at this stage to escalate U.N. sanctions on Tehran over its nuclear program.


Tomgram: Michael Klare, Tough Oil on Tap

News stories just out report that the Bush administration is planning to designate Iran's entire Revolutionary Guard Corps a "specially designated global terrorist" in order to tighten sanctions on that country. This follows a many-months-long drumbeat of U.S. claims against Iran -- for arming not just Shiite militias (and Sunni insurgents) with the most sophisticated roadside bombs to attack American troops, but the Taliban as well (an especially unlikely charge).


Oil Gains as Storm, Weather System Threaten Gulf Oil Production

Oil rose more than 1 percent in New York, the biggest gain in two weeks, on concern a tropical storm and a separate weather disturbance may damage oil platforms and pipelines in the Gulf of Mexico.

Royal Dutch Shell Plc evacuated staff from the Gulf as a precaution because of a tropical disturbance near the Yucatan Peninsula. Atlantic Tropical Storm Dean may become a hurricane by the end of the week, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said. In 2005, hurricanes Katrina and Rita decimated platforms and pipelines along the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts.


Global Warming Is A Hoax Still Read

GLOBAL WARMING IS A HOAX STILL REAL....Remember the big foofaraw a few days ago when a global warming skeptic finally found a bug in some U.S. temperature calculations? 1998 was no longer the hottest year on record! The United States is cooler than it was in 1934!

All this was over a small Y2K correction that lowered a few years of data for the U.S. by about a tenth of a degree. And what about the correction for global warming? Well, it's in the chart above.


Analysis: evidence still shows global warming

The wrongly calculated temperature statistics have left Nasa with egg on its face, but should have little long term effect beyond handing global warming-deniers a propaganda coup.

However embarrassing the oversight may have been, the adjustment to the temperature records from the United States is a matter of hundredths of a degree and does not alter the overall trend.


The Oil Patch Cheers On Hurricane Dean

The price of crude oil is down some 8 percent since August 1. What the oil patch and every oil trader knows, one of the quickest ways to turn around this tumble is the drama of a good old fashioned hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico wending its way toward the Texas and Louisiana coasts. And Shazam! Here comes Hurricane Dean!

Hurricane Dean's every little ripple will be reported by the oil industry flacks and their willing mouthpieces in the media. The crescendo of ominous events will be forecast and analyzed, all with a unanimity of purpose leading to higher and higher oil prices. Whether the storm actually hits or not, one thing is sure. The mere specter of the event will have the oil industry and the oil trading community cheering, "Go Big Dean, Go".


Why ‘Peak Oil’ May Soon Pique Your Interest

Do a Google search of the Web on “global warming” and it calls up more than 80 million references. Search for “peak oil” and the number exceeds 10 million.

In two years or so, world concern over crude oils supplies should be so great that a Google search on that subject probably will top that of global warming, predicts Matthew Simmons, chairman of Houston-based Simmons & Company International, an investment banking firm for the energy industry.


The India nuclear deal: The top rule-maker bends the rules

The White House reached a deal late last month to provide India with U.S. civil nuclear cooperation, reversing a ban on such cooperation that had been in place since 1978.

After India's first nuclear test in 1974, the United States decided to halt nuclear exports to countries that have not signed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, and persuaded the rest of the world's nuclear suppliers to make this a global rule in 1992.

Jim Jubak on Peak Oil

Peak Oil Linkfest - 08/07/07

Why 'peak oil' may soon pique your interest

Do a Google search of the Web on "global warming" and it calls up more than 80 million references. Search for "peak oil" and the number exceeds 10 million.

In two years or so, world concern over crude oils supplies should be so great that a Google search on that subject probably will top that of global warming, predicts Matthew Simmons, chairman of Houston-based Simmons & Company International, an investment banking firm for the energy industry.


Towns prepare for 'peak oil' point

Globally we are addicted to oil. Not only are we addicted, but we use it like there was no tomorrow.

We use it for heating and lighting, it powers 95% of our transportation, we use oil to take low value foodstuffs from one side of the world to the other, we use it for plastics, manufacturing, clothing, medicine. Oil is everywhere, but it's not infinite.


The World Energy Modeling Project

The following is a guest post about the need for global energy systems modeling, by ASPO-USA co-founder Dick Lawrence. Mr. Lawrence has a degree in Physics from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute. After a career at Digital Equipment and Intel he is focusing on the world energy model and starting a solar hot-water business in Massachusetts. In 1986 he read "Beyond Oil" (the original) which was his introduction to resource depletion, Hubbert's peak, and the power of computers to model the behavior of complex systems. In May 2004 he proposed a project to model global energy flow at the ASPO meeting in Berlin.


Kelpie Wilson: Paying the Peak Oil Power Bill

Sometime this week, the House will vote on a new "energy independence" bill designed by the Democrats. Even though Congress just passed an omnibus energy bill in 2005, there is growing agreement on both sides of the aisle that the need for "energy security" is growing and more must be done to ensure it.


Qatar says Opec can do nothing about oil prices

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) can do nothing about the high price of oil as there is no shortage of crude in the market, Qatar's oil minister said on Thursday.

"We can't do anything because this price is not related to a shortage of supply," Qatar's Oil Minister Abdullah Al Attiyah said. "Inventories in industrialised countries are at high levels. That proves there is no shortage of supply at all."


Peak Oil Passnotes: To Sir With love

The U.K. has a problem: Its local oil and gas have peaked. There is no argument, it is not heresy in the local industry and you can say it without being dragged out of your office and exposed as a communist. U.K. North Sea production peaked some years back at about 3 million barrels per day and continues to decline at around 1.8 million barrels per day at the moment. The decline rate is around 7% a year.

The same thing has happened in the United States. Oil production peaked at the start of the 1970s and, despite the huge concentration of capital and wells, continues to decline. These are both basic facts.


The End Of Cheap Food

It looks like the era of cheap food is over. The price of maize has doubled in a year, and wheat futures are at their highest in a decade. The food price index in India has risen 11%, and in Mexico in January there were riots after the price of corn flour went up fourfold. The floods in England and India have devastated crops. In nearly every country food prices are going up, and they are probably not going to come down again.

Peak Oil Linkfest -07/24/07

Cold sore - Russia's relations with the West

In early 2000, the UK embassy in Moscow took a bit of a gamble. They persuaded Tony Blair to make one of his first major foreign policy initiatives a meeting with the new face in the Kremlin and heir apparent, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. At the time it was a bit of a shocker – a popular, powerful, top-level, democratically elected leader meeting with an unelected, unknown, KGB spy who was failing to manage a bankrupt country over-run by dodgy oligarchs.


Migrating to New Energy Paradigms Part 2 - The Economic Importance of Crude Oil

Peak Oil is defined as the point at which 50% of the world's oil reserves have been consumed, and 50% remain. We all understand that oil is important to the world economy, but just how important is it?

In October 2004 I attempted to answer this question on behalf of a client as part of that client's long range strategic planning process. The amount of work involved was fairly significant so I have chosen to rely on my findings of that time for the purposes of this article. There are two other reasons:


$100-a-barrel oil may be only a few months away

The $100-a-barrel oil that Goldman Sachs Group said would prevail by 2009 may be only a few months away.

Jeffrey Currie, a London-based commodity analyst at the largest brokerage firm, said that $95 crude was quite likely this year unless OPEC unexpectedly increased production and that declining inventories were raising the chances for $100 oil.


The future is solar; politics is ethanol

This seems like a good place to tout Robert Rapier's excellent recent post: "The future is solar." In it, he makes the very simple point that photosynthesis -- the means by which corn, rapeseed, switchgrass, etc. make energy from sunlight -- is not particularly efficient: "when an acre of rapeseed/canola is planted, we get about 0.06% conversion of the sun's energy into oil."


Falling dollar puts pressure on Opec

The falling US dollar is lowering the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ purchasing power by up to a third, making the powerful oil cartel more reluctant to increase production and cut prices.

Although oil is trading near last August’s record $78.65 a barrel, Opec calculations show that, when adjusted for the weaker dollar and inflation, an average of the 12 Opec members’ crude oil prices has fallen in the past year.


British teach less Churchill, more global warming

Once upon a time, the British curriculum was straightforward. There was math, English, science. You learned about Winston Churchill, how to locate Greece, and how to say "My name is John" in French.

But starting next year British teenagers will face an exotic range of new disciplines designed to equip them with more practical skills. Healthy cooking, personal finances, and global warming are in. Charles Dickens, Jane Austen, and the Battle of the Nile may be nudged out.


Nigeria: Tackling the Niger Delta Crisis

From being prided as the region that lays the golden egg for the nation, the Niger Delta gradually slipped into the abyss of underdevelopment and environmental pollution. Today, it has metamorphosed into a zone characterised by militancy, pipeline vandalisation and hostage-taking for ransom. This region that accounts for only about 7.5% of Nigeria's landmass has become a top priority of the President Umaru Yar'Adua's administration, having been similarly prioritised by the regime of former President Olusegun Obasanjo.


The Future of Thought in the Oil and Gas Industry

When I joined Shell Development in January 1983, I was among a group of 11 Ph.D.s, engineers and physicists hired from the best U.S. universities. I entered a venerable research organization shaped by none other than M. King Hubbert, who led Shell Development for 20 years. Over its history, this organization gave the world Hubbert’s peaks and the notion of resource limitations, W. R. Purcell (capillarity), G. E. Archie (modern petrophysics), M. A. Biot (modern geophysics), J. Handin (rock physics), and many others.

Peak Oil Linkfest - 07/22/07

After peak oil: Will America survive?

As public awareness about peak oil continues to grow, and even the big oil companies like Exxon Mobil Corp. are now starting to admit that the future supply of oil looks troublesome (see this Boston Globe article), there's an increasing focus on renewable energy solutions. But most members of the public still don't understand energy very well, and they generally have no idea whether alternative energy sources like solar, wind or CSP (see below) can replace oil. Many people are concerned about a potential collapse of modern society due to the end of cheap oil. So to help answer some of these questions, I've put together a set of uncensored, science-based answers about oil, renewable energy and the future of modern civilization. This is offered in a Q&A format.


PM to discuss Iran crisis at Bush summit

GORDON BROWN is to discuss the looming crisis over Iran with President George W Bush on his first official visit to America as prime minister. The summit may take place next weekend at Camp David, the presidential retreat, although the dates and location are still being finalised.

It comes as one Washington source said the mood in the Bush administration had hardened in favour of military strikes to prevent Iran developing a bomb. “There are increasing signs that Bush will not want to leave a nuclear-armed Iran as his legacy,” the source said.


BNP plans to seek safety in Croatian idyll

When the fossil fuels run out, leaders of Britain's far right hope to survive on a farm in the Balkans.

A few miles from the historic southern Croatian town of Knin lie 1,100 hectares of farmland and a couple of abandoned buildings. A tributary from the river Krka runs through the lush countryside nestled close to the sun-drenched Adriatic coast.


Lots of energy, shortage of policy

The U.S. National Petroleum Council's new report on global energy markets, believed to be one of the most extensive studies of its kind, received mixed reviews this week from greens and others whose policy ideas depend on an ever-present looming catastrophe. Especially put out by the 470-page report, titled Facing the Hard Truths About Energy, were the peak-oil theorists, who believe disaster is imminent as the world supply of conventional oil is set to peak, triggering a catastrophic decline.


OPEC oil prices hit record high

The daily average oil price of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) hit a new record of 72.83 U.S. dollars per barrel on Monday, up 0.34 dollars from the previous trading day and 0.16 dollars higher than the previous record set last August.

The OPEC's weekly average prices also reached a record high of 71.86 dollars per barrel, 0.14 dollars higher than the previous record set in the second week of August 2006, the cartel's secretariat said on Tuesday.

Peak Oil Linkfest - 07/16/07

IEA calls for Opec to increase production

World oil demand growth will accelerate in 2008 to 2.5 per cent from this year’s 1.8 per cent despite high oil prices, the industrialised countries’ energy watchdog said on Friday.

The International Energy Agency’s forecast comes as Brent oil rose to a fresh 11-month high of $77.60 a barrel , about $1 below the all-time high set last August.


World not running out of oil, says report

Proponents of “peak oil”, the theory that global crude oil production is nearing its zenith, are unimpressed with a US oil industry group’s findings that the world has plenty of oil.

This week the US National Petroleum Council, a board of high-level US oil industry executives, releases its study titled, Facing the Hard Truths about Energy, conducted at the behest of US Energy Secretary Sam Bodman.


On the precipice: Energy security and economic stability on the edge

I am a Major in the United States Army. When looking at this report for the first time, one may legitimately ask why an Army officer is writing about energy issues.

The genesis for this project began many months ago when I was conducting research for a project related to the development of the future force in the US Army. I believed it was important to include an effective assessment of what the world might look like in the year the force was projected to complete its initial fielding (2030).


New Oil Reports Add Confusion To 'Peak Oil' Theory

Proponents of "peak oil" -- the theory that global crude oil production has hit its zenith and is headed for a steep decline -- are upset with a U.S. oil industry group's findings that the world has plenty of oil. Next week the U.S. National Petroleum Council -- a board of high-level U.S. oil industry executives -- releases its study titled "Facing the Hard Truths about Energy," conducted at the behest of Energy Secretary Sam Bodman. According to the report's executive summary obtained by Reuters, the world is not running out of oil but there are "accumulating risks" to securing supply through 2030. In a draft letter to Bodman outlining its findings, the National Petroleum Council says, "The world is not running out of energy resources, but there are accumulating risks to continuing expansion of oil and natural gas production from the conventional sources relied upon historically."


In West China, saving the go-go juice

I heard about a village two hours from Chongqing City with old city walls surrounding smoke stained wooden beamed homes, cobble stone streets and stone carvings chiseled into cliff faces 400 years ago. Along the way to Lai Tan, I wanted to gaze out of bus windows and simply compare the differences between Chinese and western methods of fossil fuel use and human power, but first I had to get to the bus station.


Energy's Manpower Peak? - Why the biggest problem might not be oil.

For headhunters like Tom Zay, business couldn’t be better. “I have never seen demand like this,” says Zay, a managing director in the Houston office of Boyden, an executive worldwide search firm. “We’ve had cycles in the past. But this is different.”

Indeed it is. While Zay looks for executives and top-level managers, the entire energy industry – from welders, tank builders, and roughnecks to petroleum engineers, nuclear engineers, and technicians – is strapped for talent. And the problems are likely to get substantially worse before they get better. Nor is the labor shortage limited to the U.S. and the hydrocarbon sector. Rather, it is worldwide, and being felt in industries ranging from coal mining to nuclear power. The reasons for the labor crunch are many: an aging workforce, lagging student interest in engineering, a lack of interest in blue-collar jobs like welding, and perhaps most important, the strong commodity prices that have led to a boom in energy projects of all types.


Potential Energy Crunch May Bring Other Fuels to Fore

World oil and gas supplies from conventional sources are unlikely to keep up with rising global demand over the next 25 years, the U.S. petroleum industry says in a draft report of a study commissioned by the government.

In the draft report, oil-industry leaders acknowledge the world will need to develop all the supplemental sources of energy it can -- ranging from biofuels to nuclear power to oil extracted by unconventional means from the oil sands of Canada -- to meet soaring demand. The surge in demand is expected to arise from rapid economic growth in such fast-developing countries as China and India, as well as mounting consumption in the U.S., the world's biggest energy market.


Energy: the new cold war

Since the close of the cold war, we have been growing used to threats such as terrorism where the enemy has no state or territory. But soon we will have to get used to new strategic challenges, such as energy security, where fossil fuels will be used as weapons to achieve political ends. Energy security will be synonymous with national security and economic security.


Oil 'could hit $95 a barrel this year'

The key Middle Eastern members of oil cartel OPEC were tonight coming under pressure for an immediate increase in production after a warning from Goldman Sachs that prices could hit a peak of $95 a barrel by the end of the year.

With a new bout of speculative activity today driving Brent crude to within a few cents of the record $78.65 reached last summer, Goldman said shortages of supply were behind the steady rise in oil prices.


Disaster at the end of the cheap energy era

While warning signs are appearing of associated crises in the rapidly rising Third World populations and the rising prices for diminishing world resources of food and raw materials, the International Energy Authority has belatedly accepted the reality of peak oil and the fearful impact this will have on the future of the world.

The devastating nature of this issue is that humanity has used up half of the world's oil reserves, with the remaining half overwhelmingly lower in quality and in less accessible fields.


Are these the last days of the Oil Age?

Oil ruled the 20th century; the shortage of oil will rule the 21st. There is now no doubt about the rising trend in oil prices. In 2003 a barrel of Brent crude sold for $29; in 2004 it rose to $38; in 2005 it rose to $54.50; in 2006 it rose to $65. Last Friday the price closed at $77.50. Some dealers expect it to test the $80 level quite shortly.


Crude Oil Rises to 11-Month High as North Sea Production Drops

Crude oil rose to an 11-month high in New York and London after a pipeline shutdown and maintenance work reduced North Sea Brent oil production.

Chevron Corp. and ConocoPhillips said they lost output from North Sea fields that produce oil and gas after BP Plc closed the pipeline. BG Group Plc said its Armada oil field in the North Sea has been shut for maintenance since June. The International Energy Agency said in a report today that global oil demand will rise 2.5 percent next year.


A new dawn for nuclear power

Despite its environmentally unfriendly image, nuclear power is firmly back on the world's energy agenda thanks to the need to cut carbon-dioxide emissions. Paul Norman, Andrew Worrall and Kevin Hesketh describe how the next generation of nuclear power stations will be cleaner and more efficient than ever


Peak Oil Passnotes: Peak Oil Zombie Attack

As we have made clear many times in this column we hold little truck with many of the whackos who inhabit the wondrous world of ‘Peak Oil’. Yes, despite the title of the column. No sooner do people start talking about energy supply crunches, plateauing production or acreage inflection then a host of bedraggled crazies rise forth from their graves to tell us a number of scary items.

Firstly, we are often told humanity is going to “die off.” What a great idea. It could almost be a book, or a series of books and a website. Oh wait. It is. Like an energy-related version of the film 28 Days Later. Every lazy person around the planet can argue how many people will be alive in 2050 or 2100 and no one can prove them wrong. Ker-ching!


"Peak oil" advocates blast U.S. industry study

Proponents of "peak oil" -- the theory that global crude oil production has hit its zenith and is headed for a steep decline -- are steamed with a U.S. oil industry group's findings that the world has plenty of oil.

Next week the U.S. National Petroleum Council -- a board of high-level U.S. oil industry executives -- releases its study titled "Facing the Hard Truths about Energy," conducted at the behest of Energy Secretary Sam Bodman.


Net Oil Exports and the "Iron Triangle"

As Matt Simmons pointed out several years ago, the critical problem with post-peak exporting regions is that we would have two exponential functions (declining production and generally increasing consumption) working against net exports. From the point of view of importers, it is quite likely that we are facing a crash in oil supplies. In my opinion, what I have described as the “Iron Triangle” is doing everything possible to keep this message from reaching consumers.


Iran Asks Japan to Pay Yen for Oil, Start Immediately

Iran asked Japanese refiners to switch to the yen to pay for all crude oil purchases, after Iran's central bank said it is reducing holdings of the U.S. dollar.

Iran wants yen-based transactions ``for any/all of your forthcoming Iranian crude oil liftings,'' according to a letter sent to Japanese refiners that was signed by Ali A. Arshi, general manager of crude oil marketing and exports in Tehran at the National Iranian Oil Co. The request is for all shipments ``effective immediately,'' according to the letter, dated July 10 and obtained by Bloomberg News.

Peak Oil Linkfest - 07/08/07

Around the Markets: Biofuel demand gives lift to commodities

Sugar, corn, wheat and cotton may be among the best commodity investments in the next one to three years, driven by biofuel demand and rising incomes in China and India, according to UBS, the world's largest money manager.

"Investors can expect to see a 6 to 10 percent plus return per year on those investments," Stuart Fox, UBS's head of commodities in Asia Pacific, said by phone from Hong Kong. His energy and commodities traders and sales team in Asia has more than tripled to 16 people in the past 12 months.


Green facade: Why the state's eco-friendly cars aren't doing the job

During the past two years, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's administration sunk more than $17 million into a state fleet of cars and trucks designed to be environmentally friendly.

So far, the 1,138 "flex-fuel" vehicles have traveled a collective 10 million miles and burned more than 413,202 gallons of gas.


Real Alternative Energy Sources

If Congress is going to subsidize energy to free us from dependence on foreign oil, it should — at the very least — spend our hard-earned taxpayer dollars on something that will work.

The unfortunate truth is that neither ethanol nor any other so-called renewable alternative energy now being discussed on Capitol Hill is likely to make any significant contribution to our energy needs.


Marchetti's Curves

This is a brief account of the Energy Susbstitution Model developed by Cesare Marchetti in the 1970s at IIASA. Using data from the latest BP Statistical Review the evolution of the energy market is compared with the model to understand why the Hubbert Peak of fossils fuels represents a problem today.


World 'building up risks over energy supplies'

The world is not running out of crude oil and natural gas but there are 'accumulating risks' to securing global supplies through 2030, a high-level board of US oil company executives found in a report.Those risks include "political hurdles, infrastructure requirements and availability of trained workforce," according to the study by the US National Petroleum Council, conducted at the behest of US Energy Secretary Sam Bodman.

The NPC, whose members include executives of big oil companies like ExxonMobil and Chevron, will present the study at its July 18 meeting.


Oil hits 10-month high near $75 on Nigeria, demand

Oil surged over 2 percent to nearly $75 a barrel on Thursday on strong demand and as fresh violence in Nigeria spurred supply concerns.

London crude rebounded after slipping from earlier highs on U.S. government data that showed crude supplies rising and refiners ramping up gasoline output to meet summer holiday driving demand.


Is Fear About Climate Change Causing a Nuclear Renaissance?

Some prominent environmentalists are urging that we reconsider nuclear power. But they have been met with resistance from many who believe nuclear power never will be a solution to global warming.

Sitting in the belly of the beast -- Dominion's 2,000-megawatt Millstone nuclear power plant in Waterford, Connecticut -- the company's chief nuclear officer, Dave Christian, seems an unlikely environmentalist. But he says concern about climate change is what got him involved in the peaceful pursuit of the atom in the first place.


IAEA: Iran Slowing Expansion of Nuclear Enrichment Capabilities

The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency says Iran has slowed the expansion of its nuclear enrichment capabilities.

In Vienna Monday, Mohamed ElBaradei said IAEA inspectors have seen a slowing in the installation of centrifuges that enrich uranium at Iran's Natanz nuclear facility.


Opec has little power to ease oil price – Algeria

Algeria’s Energy and Mines Minister Chakib Khelil said yesterday there was “not much” Opec could do to bring down high oil prices as global crude stocks were already sufficient.

“There is plenty of stocks. It’s a problem with capacity and refining,” Khelil said ahead of a gas pipeline conference in Brussels. “Even if it (Opec) increases production, it’s just going to increase stocks and not have any effect because prices are drawn by petroleum product prices.”


World facing oil ‘supply crunch’ as demand soars, agency warns

The world faces an energy squeeze as soaring demand for fuel exceeds the rate of growth in the supply of crude oil, the West’s leading energy forecaster has predicted.

In a gloomy appraisal of the global oil balance, the International Energy Agency yesterday predicted a world of increasing market tightness beyond 2010. The world faces a “supply crunch” by 2012, according to the agency’s Medium-Term Oil Market Report, with weak increases in oil output from nonOpec countries colliding with strong demand and diminished spare capacity within the cartel of oil producers.


Exploding a fair few wordy myths

AFTER recent comments from Defence Minister Brendan Nelson, debate is raging over whether America and Australia went to war in Iraq because of oil.

This is absurd. Nobody was more surprised to discover that Iraq had oil than the Allies. Goodness, with all that fuel around, it was just as well that those weapons of mass destruction were only prevented from exploding by the fact that they didn't exist. Otherwise, the whole country could have gone up in flames. Oh, wait a minute … Anyway, here are some ideas that should probably be blown up.


Iran's oil output to fall without investment - report

Iran's oil production capacity will fall by five percent a year without new investment, a senior oil official was quoted on Sunday as saying by the Iran's student news agency ISNA.

Iranian officials have previously put production capacity at a little more than 4 million barrels per day (bpd), with actual output -- limited to a quota set by the oil cartel OPEC -- running at a little below 4 million bpd.


Corn ethanol could be a dead end

As the nation fights to lower its dependence on foreign oil and Colorado works toward a new energy economy, the buzz word in energy circles is “ethanol,” and using it to power cars, trucks and electricity has become a hot topic.

But as the conversation continues, ethanol experts and politicians are beginning to agree that corn-based ethanol may not be the magic energy solution many have come to see it as.


Can I diet my way to a lighter eco footprint?

Lose weight and save the planet. It has all the hallmarks of a zeitgeist diet book and perhaps a TV series in which I will travel around putting punters on scales, measuring out their porridge for the day, and perhaps changing their light bulbs. But there is some validity to the idea that you can simultaneously shrink your waistline and your carbon footprint.

An extra 100lb of weight carried in your car, for example, reduces fuel economy by around 2 per cent. Even Richard Branson recently signed up to losing a stone before he takes an inaugural flight on one of the superlight carbon-fibre Boeing jets he has bought in order to save an extra 36lb of CO2. Given that his fleet allegedly produces 7.4m tonnes of CO2 a year, that's not a hugely rewarding diet


Will the coming oil crisis be the end of suburbia?

Three years ago, when I started to teach Introduction to Sociology for Lamar Community College, my brother sent me the DVD, “The End of Suburbia: Oil Depletion and the Collapse of the American Dream,” concerning the “coming oil crisis."

I showed it to my class to help the students better understand “social change” and what would happen to society during such a crisis. They hadn’t even heard that we were going to face such a crisis. It’s no surprise, most Americans hadn’t heard of it either; that was three years ago.


Peak Oil Passnotes: $80 Oil Beckons

The price of a barrel Brent crude is working its way back up to its records of $78.64 set last August 7. A steady and sure combination of factors has pushed it over $75 per barrel.

But when it pushes up against levels of $78 per barrel, which way is it going to go then?


Academic challenges global warming theory

An Australian academic has spoken out against the popular view that global warming is caused by greenhouse gas emissions. He believes that global warming and climate change are caused by cycles in the sun's electro-magnetic radiation. He says scientists are taking a narrow view and politicians are making policy with the wrong information.

Emeritus Professor Lance Endersbee AO is a former Dean of Engineering and Pro-Vice Chancellor of Monash University. He told Tom Harwood, ABC Western Queensland's Morning Program producer that the world has been warming naturally due to increased magnetic radiation from the sun.


Ethanol, Corn, Milk, Prices Increase

It appears that oil and gasoline aren't the only things that are going up in price these days. Milk, everyones favorite beverage, has gone up in price once again.From $3.80 to almost $5.00 a gallon. But milk however, isn't the only thing that will be on the rise. Other dairy products such as butter, cheese, yogurt, and ice cream will too.


Sugar, Grains, Cotton May Be Best Commodity Buys, UBS Forecasts

Sugar, corn, wheat and cotton may be among the best commodity investments in the next one to three years driven by biofuel demand and rising incomes in China and India, according to UBS AG, the world's largest money manager.

``Investors can expect to see a 6 to 10 percent plus return per year on those investments,'' Stuart Fox, UBS's head of commodities in Asia Pacific, said by phone from Hong Kong. His energy and commodities traders and sales team in Asia has more than tripled to 16 people in the past 12 months.


North Sea is running too dry to meet target

The energy industry warned yesterday that government targets of keeping Britain's oil and gas production at 3m barrels a day by 2010 look like being missed. North Sea competitiveness is falling and financial backers are losing confidence in the wake of tax increases introduced 18 months ago.

Civil servants have been working with oil companies to find ways to boost output offshore, but the 2007 Economic Report issued by the industry organisation Oil & Gas UK says the goal looks like being missed after five years of rising hopes.

Peak Oil Linkfest - 07/04/07

Bill Boyne: Oil reserves are drying up rapidly

A worldwide oil shortage is due in four years -- not 40 years.

That is the prediction of the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre in London, an organization of scientists and oil industry experts. It was reported by The Independent newspaper in England.


Canadian Spot Natural Gas Declines on Weather, U.S. Holiday

Natural gas at Canada's largest trading point fell as moderate weather is forecast for the country's largest cities and a U.S. holiday lessens demand.

The weather in Toronto is predicted to stay within a normal range until at least July 6, according to a forecast from the government's Environment Canada. Temperatures in Montreal, the country's second-biggest city after Toronto, may reach 24 degrees Celsius (75 degrees Fahrenheit) tomorrow, about 7.7 percent below its range.


Lake in Chile disappears; climate change blamed

Scientists on Tuesday blamed global warming for the disappearance of a glacial lake in remote southern Chile that faded away in just two months, leaving just a crater behind.
The disappearance of the lake in Bernardo O'Higgins National Park was discovered in late May by park rangers, who were stunned to find a 130-foot deep crater where a large lake had been.


Why the U.S.' Oil Dependence is Bad for the U.S. Economy

Energy policy -- or more specifically U.S. oil dependence -- comes and goes in media focus. Its prominence usually increases in direct proportion to the current price of oil or gas. In addition, there has been a growing movement called the "peak oil" movement, which argues world supplies are actually at or near their highest and will continually decline from here on out. While I can't comment on the veracity of peak oil's claims, I can state without a doubt that the U.S.' national energy policy -- and specifically our oil dependence -- is economically disadvantageous.


Iran's First Nuclear Power Plant to Go Online Soon

Russian news agencies are reporting that Iran will put its first nuclear power plant online shortly after the Russian-built facility is completed in September.

The news agencies Itar-Tass and Interfax quoted Iranian officials Tuesday as saying that the nuclear facility in Bushehr will be completed in two months.


Özyürek: World will see a uranium crisis

If the CHP forms the government, Özyürek will definitely become the energy and natural resources minister. Özyürek does not like nuclear energy. He argues that Turkey should abandon its nuclear energy plans. Instead, renewable energy resources should be given priority. He cautions the world about a uranium crisis similar to the infamous oil crisis. Therefore, existing and future nuclear power stations will become idle, he says. Özyürek notes that Turkey’s plans to become an energy corridor are about to be disrupted by Russia. Özyürek elaborated on his ideas about energy policies in an interview with Today’s Zaman.


Revenues from North Sea shrink as costs soar

Britain is earning less from the North Sea as soaring costs, a weak gas price and dwindling output erode company margins and crimp government tax receipts from oil industry profits.

UK Oil & Gas (UKOG), which represents Britain’s offshore oil industry, predicts that revenues will fall well short of Treasury forecasts. The lobby group said that weaker profit margins and higher taxes would drive investment overseas and cause a more rapid fall-off in UK oil and gas production.


'Peak oil' is coming soon say BP critics

Last month, the oil company BP, reported that there were sufficient oil reserves to meet current demands for another 40 years. It said there was no need to be concerned about global scarcity, despite cutting its estimates for proven reserves for the first time in 16 years. These claims have since been hotly disputed.


Crisis, what energy crisis?

The energy gap left by declining fossil Solar fuels may be filled by alternative sources of energy. In short, the Earth has ample supplies of energy to sustain human population and economic growth. Discuss....


Mexico President Calderon: Oil Exports Will Fall Further

Mexican President Felipe Calderon said Friday he expected the country's crude oil exports to slip further this year and next, continuing a decline seen in 2006.
"Starting in 2006, the volume of our oil exports has been falling at an alarming rate and from what we have observed up until now, this year and the next will be no exception," Calderon told a banking event.


North Sea output continues to drop despite record investment

The decline in oil and gas production in the UK North Sea continued in April, despite record investment in 2006, in what economists at Royal Bank of Scotland said was another sign that the province is maturing rapidly.

The latest oil and gas index from Royal Bank shows that combined average daily oil and gas production for the UK Continental Shelf stood at 2,823,141 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) in April. This was about 2.3% lower than in March, ending a run of six consecutive monthly increases. The underlying rate of production continued on a firmly downward trend, falling 7.8% compared with April last year.


The Rising and Falling Power of Hydrocarbon States

The global economy runs on oil. Unequal distribution of oil throughout the world bestows power on the few states with ample supplies. Venezuela is one example of a nation that uses oil as leverage in foreign affairs: Besides consolidating his popular base at home, President Hugo Chavez has helped debt-ridden countries in that region, openly mocks the US and signed an arms-procurement deal with Russia. Chavez also fosters ties with China, just in case the US decides to stop importing Venezuelan oil. Steady demand allows oil-rich nations to act without regard to the international opinion. The US cannot complain. The one-time leading producer of oil used its own supplies to manipulate foreign policy throughout the 1900s. But as the US has learned, the supply of oil is limited; nations and companies can conserve and seek alternatives. Author Dilip Hiro warns that the power derived from oil is only temporary. – YaleGlobal


A Nuclear Phoenix?

Sitting in the belly of the beast—Dominion’s 2,000-megawatt Millstone nuclear power plant in Waterford, Connecticut—the company’s chief nuclear officer, Dave Christian, seems an unlikely environmentalist. But he says concern about climate change is what got him involved in the peaceful pursuit of the atom in the first place.

“I started studying climate science in the 1970s after reading a book [published in 1974] entitled Technology, Society and Man by Richard C. Dorf,” Christian says. “It was a very thoughtful study of the feedback mechanisms that go into global warming.”


Business View: Why not pay them not to pump their oil?

Here's an idea. There are billions of barrels of oil left in the ground, much of it belonging to the world's poorer countries. And money from rich countries is pouring into carbon-offsetting projects, many of them of questionable science. So why not just pay countries to keep their oil in the ground and avoid the emissions in the first place?


Biofuels: The Five Myths of the Agro-fuels Transition

Biofuels. The term invokes a life-giving image of renewability and abundance—a clean, green, sustainable assurance in technology and the power of progress. This image allows industry, politicians, the World Bank, the United Nations, and even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to present fuels made from corn, sugarcane, soy and other crops as the next step in a smooth transition from peak oil to a yet-to-be-defined renewable fuel economy. Drawing its power from a cluster of simple cornucopian myths, “biofuels” directs our attention away from the powerful economic interests that benefit from this transition. It avoids discussion of the growing North-South food and energy imbalance. More fundamentally, it obscures the political-economic relationships between land, people, resources and food. By showing us only one side, “biofuels” fails to help us understand the profound consequences of the industrial transformation of our food and fuel systems—The Agro-fuels Transition.

Peak Oil Linkfest - 06/30/07

Oil settles above $70 a barrel


Oil prices settled above the psychologically important $70 a barrel mark on Friday for the first time since August 2006 on worries about gasoline supplies in the heart of the summer driving season.

Light, sweet crude for August delivery rose $1.11 to settle at $70.68 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after rising as high as $71.06 earlier in the session. Oil last closed above $70 a barrel on Aug. 31.


BP economist: World’s oil is plentiful

The world has plenty of oil left, although China has a growing appetite for all sorts of energy.

That was the message a senior BP economist had at a Thursday presentation sponsored by the Denver Chamber of Commerce.

Mark Finley, head of energy analysis at BP's London headquarters, walked the group of about 20 through BP's annual Statistical Review of World Energy , which was released this month.


Peak Oil Theorists Gush Obfuscation!

I know its too much to expect that determined peak oil theorists like ASPO co-founder Steve Andrews will suddenly admit they're wrong-no matter how many times their predictions of doomsday come and go without the world coming to an end. Sometimes all you can do is to shake your head at the stubborn denial. But Mr. Andrew's rejoinder here on the Huffington Post, to my "Peak Oil is Snake Oil!" piece of 6/25/07 requires some untangling to get at the pertinent facts.


Peak Oil Passnotes: Peak Market Economics

If you earned $1 million a year, life wouldn’t be bad, especially if you had only earned $300,000 a year some 36 months previously. Suppose that in order to carry on earning $1 million a year, you had to invest $20,000 each annum. You would agree and do it, in order to preserve the healthy profits you were pulling in.

Suppose that someone came up to you and asked you to invest $60,000 a year instead of $20,000. They say it would help them out. Then they told you as a result you would only earn $500,000 a year. What would you say? You would politely ask them to insert their head in a painful and probably physically impossible place.


Enrich Oil, Not Uranium!

After nights of rioting, Tehran looks like a war-torn city dotted with charred carcasses of cars and buses and the still smoldering remains of gas stations. Security checkpoints are everywhere while heavily armed soldiers guard public edifices and government buildings.


OPEC: Biofuels Not a 'Magic Bullet'

Despite near-record oil prices, investment in future oil production may be limited, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries says, due in part to increasing biofuel production.

The U.S. and European Union have already pushed forward policy that encourages replacing oil with biofuels, and the U.S. Senate passed a plan last week that would allow the U.S. government to sue OPEC for manipulating prices. OPEC's response?


Gore's seven point pledge to cut global warming

Al Gore called on people around the world to sign a "7 Point Pledge" promising personal action in curbing global warming.

The former US vice-president unveiled the pledge at a press conference to promote Live Earth, the July 7 concerts to be held in Johannesburg, London, New Jersey, Rio de Janeiro, Shanghai, Sydney and Tokyo. Organisers said the concert, which is being broadcast in more than 100 countries, could be watched and heard by 2 billion people worldwide. "This is a global challenge," Gore said. "We will need a tougher global treaty, we will need every nation to be a part of the solution and we will need individuals all around the world to be part of the solution."


A cleaner North Sea? Ship fuel suppliers hedge bets

European ship fuel suppliers are hedging their bets ahead of tighter fuel quality rules from November amid uncertainty about demand for the cleaner grade and expectations that some ship operators will ignore the new rules.

European Commission regulations banning ships from burning dirtier fuel in the North Sea and the English Channel are aimed at reducing sulphur dioxide emissions that are 700 times higher than sulphur levels in diesel fuel for vehicles.


Peak oilman sticks to his guns

It never hurts to check up on what T. Boone Pickens is saying and doing. The Texas oilman, corporate raider, and philanthropist has serious cred, and it's unlikely that he's giving interviews in order to pump up his investments. His portfolio is well known, and, as he says, "There isn't anybody who can talk a commodity market up more than three or four minutes. The fundamentals will take over at some point."

In a recent interview with the Houston Business Journal, he reiterated his view that global oil production has already peaked:


The Problem's Not Peak Oil, It's Politics

Some "peak oil" cassandras warn that global energy production will soon fall into permanent decline. But a more immediate danger to world oil supplies may be the tempestuous politics of many producing countries. Witness Venezuela's move to wrest control of key oil projects from global companies on June 26. The move echoes steps taken in other nations that will likely either decrease production or slow its growth in coming years. "The oil is in the ground, but serious doubts are being raised about whether countries have the desire and means to produce it," says Leo Drollas, deputy director of the Center for Global Energy Studies, a London think tank.


Iran an example of 'peak oil' fear

Iranian citizens are furious the government has introduced petrol rationing. There have been demonstrations, and at least one petrol station was set on fire.

Iran has the world's second-biggest proven reserves of oil but is limited in refinery capacity.

Iranians were only given two hours notice before petrol rationing began.


Rejecting the Real Snake Oil

Last Friday I spent three or four minutes on CNBC's Morning Call explaining what the concept of "peak oil" is to their viewers and arguing a bit with Raymond Learsy about the cause of our growing troubles with oil. Mr. Learsy, not content with that sound bite, wrote "Peak Oil is Snake Oil!" for this site on Monday to expand his attack on the logical notion of oil resource constraints.


Practical responses to peak oil

For those who came in late, it is increasingly clear that global oil reserves are reaching the point where half has been used up, called “peak oil”. After this point supply will no longer meet demand, and prices will rise increasingly steeply until oil becomes inaccessible.

We don’t really know how this will play out in the complex modern world because we have never faced anything like this before. The markets may give a real indication of the change by steadily rising prices, there may be a ratchet effect with an overall rise but regular short decreases in price (as already seems to be happening), or there may be sudden rises and falls until the price becomes meaninglessly high.


Cost of raising Iraq crude output approaches $75b

The estimated cost of boosting Iraq's oil output to six million barrels per day has soared to as high as $75 billion, a government adviser said yesterday.

Iraq's shattered oil industry is currently producing around two million bpd. Officials had said around $25 billion would be needed to triple that figure.


How More Ethanol Means Pricier Pizza

Milk may do a body good, but these days it's probably your wallet that gets the big workout.

Dairy products have become more expensive, causing prices to rise for some of America's favorite foods, from ice cream to chocolate to pizza.


Energy debate must include all options

RTE’S recent ‘Futureshock: End Of The Oil Age’ programme and its dire predictions of an impending energy crisis will hardly have come as a surprise to those who have followed the debate in recent years about ‘peak oil’.

As anyone who has turned on a TV or listened to a radio in the past couple of years will tell you, oil is a finite resource that we have been using like snuff at a wake, and now there’s not a lot left. Soon, all the oil that is being discovered will no longer replace all that has been produced, global production will peak and then begin to terminally decline.


China's farmers need a second liberation

China is in a rapid transition toward industrialization and integration into the world economy. However, this development has had a high price, particularly on the environment, and has put heavy pressure on local energy resources and ecosystems.

In addition, the gap in income and living standards between urban and rural areas, and between the eastern and western regions of China, has widened and the unemployment rate is increasing. Many are concerned that long-term prosperity of the country may be harmed by these social disparities.


Peak Suburbia - Kunstler

I get lots of letters from people in various corners of the nation who are hysterically disturbed by the continuing spectacle of suburban development. But instead of joining in their hand-wringing, I reply by stating my serene conviction that we are at the end of the cycle — and by that I mean the grand meta-cycle of the suburban project as a whole. It's over. Whatever you see out there now is pretty much what we're going to be stuck with. The remaining things under construction are the last twitchings of a dying organism.

Peak Oil Linkfest - 06/25/07

Hugo Chavez Has an Oil Strategy...But Can This Lead to Liberation?

The nature of Hugo Chavez’s “Bolivarian revolution” is a highly important and widely discussed issue among progressive and radical-minded people. Chavez has carried out a host of social and economic measures whose stated aim is to empower and improve the lives of the poor and politically disenfranchised in Venezuelan society; he has condemned the U.S. as an imperialist and bullying power; and in 2005 he announced that Venezuela was embarking on a project of ”21st Century Socialism.” At a time when the U.S. is waging its “war on the world” and at a time when the U.S. has been spearheading a pounding and brutalizing neoliberal economic agenda for the countries of the Third World—developments in Venezuela have attracted great interest. But what is the actual program and outlook of Hugo Chavez, what is the character of the process unfolding in Venezuela, and where is it heading? Does Chavez’s program represent a real alternative to imperialist-led exploitation, a viable road to liberation in today’s world? And what is the meaning of socialism in today’s globalized world?

Iran Invites Nuclear Watchdog to Tehran

Acting on a request from Iran, the International Atomic Energy Agency said Monday it will send a team to Tehran to work jointly on a plan meant to clear up suspicions about the Islamic republic's nuclear activities.

The invitation, conveyed Sunday by a senior Iranian envoy and made public Monday by the agency, was portrayed by some diplomats as a positive step in IAEA attempts to learn more about past activities that could point toward a weapons program.

Opec oil production edges up in June – Petrologistics

Opec, excluding Iraq and Angola, is set to pump slightly more oil in June because of higher shipments from some members including Iran and Algeria, a consultant said yesterday.
Opec’s 10 members subject to output limits are expected to pump 26.8mn bpd in June, up from a revised 26.7mn bpd in May, said Conrad Gerber, head of Geneva-based Petrologistics, which tracks tanker shipments.

World: Clock Ticking On Global Oil Supply

The debate over how much readily accessible oil remains on Earth has been revived with the release of a new report that suggests there is enough to last about 40 years.

But critics say British Petroleum's 2007 "Statistical Review Of World Energy," released this month, is far too optimistic.

The Fight For The World's Food

Most people in Britain won't have noticed. On the supermarket shelves the signs are still subtle. But the onset of a major change will be sitting in front of many people this morning in their breakfast bowl. The price of cereals in this country has jumped by 12 per cent in the past year. And the cost of milk on the global market has leapt by nearly 60 per cent. In short we may be reaching the end of cheap food.

For those of us who have grown up in post-war Britain food prices have gone only one way, and that is down. Sixty years ago an average British family spent more than one-third of its income on food. Today, that figure has dropped to one-tenth. But for the first time in generations agricultural commodity prices are surging with what analysts warn will be unpredictable consequences.

Will startup build world's biggest biodiesel plant?

Calling itself a biodiesel company "not out trying to go public and whore itself out for investors," a small, aggressive California startup is planning to build a 320 million gallon per year biodiesel refinery in Chesapeake, Virginia.

That's more than ten times the size of typical biodiesel plants, and three times the size of the 90 million gallon per year plants being built in Malaysia.

Norway to boost natural gas exports to European Union by next decade

Norway plans to increase its natural gas supplies to the European Union by up to 55 per cent by the middle of the next decade, the EU‘s energy commissioner said Monday.

“This is important taking into account the expected growth of gas consumption and the need for additional gas supplies in the EU in the years to come,‘‘ Andris Piebalgs said in a statement released during his visit to the Nordic country.

Peak Oil is Snake Oil!

Friday of last week I had occasion to do brief battle on CNBC Morning Call with Steve Andrews, co-founder of what is considered the most influential organization supporting "peak oil", the Hubbert curve theory which predicts future oil availability. Surprisingly there is more than one such organization. And why should that be? The Wall Street Journal summed it up succinctly in an article appearing in the Sept. 14, 2006 issue, stating:

"That argument known as 'peak oil theory' has provided intellectual backing for the boom in crude prices."

A strategic perspective on 21st century energy challenges

Notes from a presentation by Tom Petrie to the Institute of International Education in Denver on June 18, 2007. Reported by Steve Andrews.

Energy will be one of the two or three defining issues we’ll face over the next decade. Since post-1999, we’ve essentially been in a crisis mode. That’s the result of an accumulation of factors.

Driving home theory of peak oil

Cheryl Nechamen knows that when a discussion turns to the theory of "peak oil," listeners' eyes tend to glaze over. So she's been pleasantly surprised at how well talking about the 100-mile diet helps to break the ice.

The peak oil theory is extremely controversial. It stipulates that the world has reached -- or is about to reach -- its peak oil production, and society's demand for oil will soon start outstripping supply, wreaking havoc on the world economy.

In Defense of the Hubbert Linearization Method

The Hubbert Linearization (HL) method (the Hubbert Linearization term was coined by Stuart Staniford, with The Oil Drum) is essentially based on the mathematical observation that a parabolic (bell shaped) curve can be plotted as a line, when we plot P/Q versus Q, where P = annual production and Q = cumulative production to date. The parabolic curve assumption is based on the premise that we tend to find the big fields first. In essence, "Peak Oil" is the story of the rise and fall of the big fields. The parabolic HL model suggests that the world and Saudi Arabia are both probably now in terminal decline. While the overall world decline may be quite gradual, the impact on world oil exports will probably be very severe. See the following article for more information on the HL method: Texas and US Lower 48 Oil Production as a Model for Saudi Arabia and the World.

Russia top offender in gas-flare emissions

A little-known but major contributor to global warming -- gas flaring at oil wells -- has been measured for the first time using satellite imagery and shows that Russia is burning three times more gas than previous estimates, making it the world's worst offender, according to a new US study.

At many oil drilling sites around the world, producers ignite excess gas, sending huge balls of fire into the sky. Environmentalists and World Bank analysts say the practice -- called gas flaring -- needlessly harms the environment and wastes a lucrative energy source.

Peak Oil Linkfest -06/23/07

Envoy: Tehran open to nuclear compromise

Key U.S. allies are debating the idea of a nuclear compromise with Iran that would call for only a partial freeze of Tehran's uranium enrichment program -- a stance that could put them at odds with Washington, officials said Friday.

Sign up for: Globe Headlines e-mail | Breaking News Alerts The officials -- U.S. and European diplomats and government employees -- told The Associated Press that the deliberations among senior British, French and German decision-makers were only preliminary and that no conclusions had been drawn.

UN: Climate Change Causes Darfur Slaughter

One fifth of the world lives on less than $1 a day; 1.2 billion do not have access to safe, drinkable water; and every year, 2.2 million die from disease brought on by contaminated water. A clash of civilizations is developing between Islam and the West. On a less life-threatening but still troubling note, 876 million people are illiterate.

An inconvenient Swede

Kjell Aleklett, a perky and persuasive physicist at Uppsala University, talks with characteristic Swedish candour. As president of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil, he jokes that all the big "strawberries" in the world's oilfields have been thoroughly picked over. ("Peak oil" just means the end of cheap oil.) Fifty years ago, the world burned four billion barrels of oil a year and happily discovered lots of big berry patches — 30 billion barrels a year. Today, those figures are exactly reversed, which goes a long way toward explaining volatile oil prices and Sweden's determined plan to get off fossil fuels by 2020. "Money is not running the world," the jaunty global player likes to say during his talks. "Money is used to buy energy." Right.

Peak Oil Passnotes: Let Me Tell You an Inventory

The prospects for oil prices rising have been knocked this week, so we are told. U.S. inventories are at nine-year highs, and the cost of a barrel of Brent crude fell back down below $70 this week, albeit by only a few cents.

But this is not the real story. Inventories in the United States are high because the refinery complex in the country is in such a weak state. Due to bits falling off, explosions, gas leaks and the odd death – another one at BP’s Texas City refinery recently – the U.S. cannot process the crude that is arriving on its shores.

Born In The Eye Of The Storm

I was sitting in the air conditioned sunroom in front of a 46” TV the other day, sipping a gin and tonic and taking in a bit of evening news about the start of the hurricane season. Just off the sunroom, a rack of boneless chicken breasts were marinating as they awaited the grill. Home made potato salad, baked beans and corn on the cob would round out the menu that evening, all foods that made me think of summer days at home when the family would gather for a barbecue. And I thought to myself, what a good life I have had, a simple life by most American standards, but one that would be the envy of thousands of previous generations. While the wealthy and privileged of days yore might boast about their palatial estates, artwork, fancy furniture, and house servants, not one of them could go out and settle into their very own personal automobile, (a vehicle capable of doing the work of over 100 horses), and zip about at the heretofore ungodly speed of 70mph if they had a mind.


Global energy use slowed in 2006: BP

Despite stronger economic growth, the rise in global energy consumption slowed in 2006, according to global energy major BP. Energy prices remained high by historical standards, although price movements in 2006 varied by fuel type and region, BP’s head (energy analysis) Mark Finley told Gulf Times here yesterday. Releasing the ‘BP Statistical Review of World Energy’, Finley said the growth in global primary energy consumption in 2006 was 2.4%, down from 3.2% in 2005 and just above the 10-year average. The growth slowed for every fuel except nuclear power.


Busting the peak oil myth

Last fortnight, a leading oil MNC came out with its Annual Statistical Review of World Energy and leading business papers splashed it across their front pages. This is an annual ritual in which the company reminds the world that oil is a scarce commodity and will soon be extinct like the dodo.

As per the review, India’s oil reserves will last another 19.3 years while global reserves will last 40.5 years.

Texas oil tycoon turning to wind power

Billionaire oil tycoon T. Boone Pickens is wants to make big bucks in wind energy boom by building the world's largest wind farm in West Texas.

Pickens plans to install large wind turbines in parts of four Panhandle counties in a project that would produce up to 4,000 megawatts of electricity.

If Pickens' company, Mesa Power LP, does build the wind farm it would be the largest in the world, American Wind Energy Association spokeswoman Susan Williams Sloan said. It would generate more than five times the 735 megawatts produced at the present largest wind farm near Abilene.


The third trillion barrels of oil: where are they and how will we get them?

Speaking at the recent Society of Petroleum Engineers’ R&D conference BP Group Vice President for Technology Tony Meggs wondered how the industry will get its next trillion barrels of oil.

Today the mind-set of assumed surplus appears to be changing rapidly. People (and governments in particular) are increasingly concerned with where the next barrel is coming from. The prevailing mind set is becoming one of anxiety and insecurity. And not just about the quantity of supply - but who controls it. Concern about climate change adds to our fears. Energy has risen to the very top of political agendas around the world, and it's likely to stay there for the foreseeable future. That's the context in which we're looking for the third trillion.


The Real and Present Danger of U.S. War on Iran…and the Urgency of Resistance

“I think we've got to be prepared to take aggressive military action against the Iranians to stop them from killing Americans in Iraq. And to me, that would include a strike over the border into Iran…”
-Senator Joseph Lieberman, interviewed on CBS News Face the Nation, June 10

This statement by Lieberman is the latest in a string of charges, warnings, and military threats against Iran by the Bush administration, others in the U.S. ruling class, and international allies of the United States. They reflect the rapid and profound intensification of contradictions across the Middle East, rising tensions between the Bush regime and the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the grave danger of a U.S. military attack on Iran. Most people, including many deeply opposed to the Iraq war, are either unaware of or greatly underestimate this danger. This situation must change—now. Any U.S. attacks would be unjust and criminal no matter the pretext. It would represent a major escalation—with unpredictable consequences—of naked imperialist aggression by the U.S. in the Middle East.


Russia suggested forming “grain OPEC”

Russia has proposed a new organization to coordinate world grain trade should be created, the Russian Minister of Agriculture said Wednesday. The new organization has already been called Grain OPEC, as their structures have much in common.

The minister noted that all countries of the world should balance their grain production and consumption in view of growing requirements for grain to produce bio fuel and supply industries. Thus, it is vital for grain-producing countries to coordinate their efforts in trade and production.


Pemex Says May Oil Output Falls 6.6% From Year Ago

Petroleos Mexicanos, the state-owned oil monopoly, said crude production fell 6.6 percent in May from a year earlier and dropped to its lowest this year as the company struggles with declining output from its Cantarell field.

Daily output was 3.11 million barrels, down from 3.33 million in May 2006, the Mexico City-based company said today in a report on its Web site. January's production of 3.14 million barrels was the previous low for the year.


Clock ticking on global oil supply

The debate over how much readily accessible oil remains on Earth has been revived with the release of a new report that suggests there is enough to last about 40 years.

But critics say British Petroleum's 2007 "Statistical Review Of World Energy," released this month, is far too optimistic.

The Peak Oil Crisis: Approaching The Cliff

Last weekend across southern South Dakota the pumps went dry. Gas terminals from Sioux Falls to Yankton to Sioux City were empty. “There is simply not enough fuel coming down the pipeline into the delivery system” said a BP station owner. Eventually the tankers were sent to Nebraska to find gas. A minor glitch in the distribution? Possibly, but more likely a harbinger of more serious problems to come.

Meanwhile, I would like to tell you that Congress, which has been debating energy bills for the last two weeks, is getting ready to pass legislation that will make our lives easier during the troubled years ahead. Sadly, I cannot. From their public pronouncements and posturing, it is unlikely more than a dozen members of Congress have the slightest idea of what 2007 energy legislation should be trying to accomplish in an urgent manner.